Good morning. Here are the latest updates.
Trump Announces Postponement of Military Strike on Iran, Refuses to Make Any Concessions According to reports, on May 18 local time, U.S. President Trump stated on the social platform "Truth Social" that, at the request of the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, he has ordered the military strike originally planned for "tomorrow (May 19)" against Iran to be postponed.
Trump noted that, given the "serious negotiations" currently underway and the belief of these leaders and allies that an agreement will eventually be reached, it is particularly important that this agreement explicitly includes the core provision that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons.
Trump added that he has instructed Defense Secretary Hagerty, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Caine, and the U.S. military to refrain from launching the planned strike on May 19. However, he also issued further instructions: if a satisfactory agreement is not reached, the U.S. military must remain in a state of readiness at all times and be prepared to launch a comprehensive, large-scale military strike against Iran.
Earlier in the day, Trump stated that, after receiving Iran's "disappointing" latest proposal, he does not consider making any concessions to Iran.
Trump claimed that Iran is "more eager than ever to reach an agreement because they know what is coming next."
Iran's Supreme Leader Reiterates Consideration of Opening New Fronts According to reports, the social media account of Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reposted his first statement after taking office on May 18 local time, reiterating that Iran will consider opening new fronts in areas where the enemy lacks expertise.
The statement indicated that research on opening other fronts has been completed, as "the enemy has very little experience and is extremely vulnerable in these areas."
It further stated that if the "state of war" continues, Iran will open these new fronts.
Iran Establishes New Agency to Manage the Strait of Hormuz On May 18, Iran established a new agency, the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority," to manage the Strait of Hormuz. The official social media account of the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" was launched on the same day and will provide real-time updates on the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced on social media on May 18 that, after Iran "implements management" over the Strait of Hormuz, "it can be declared that all fiber optic cables passing through this waterway must obtain permits, undergo supervision, and pay sovereign fees."
International Oil Prices Surge According to reports, Iran's Tasnim News Agency cited a source close to the negotiation team on May 18, stating that, unlike previous texts, the U.S. side has agreed in the latest negotiation text to "exempt sanctions on Iranian oil during the negotiation period."
Following the news, international oil prices experienced a brief decline.
However, a U.S. official stated on May 18 local time that Iran's claim that "the U.S. has agreed to lift sanctions on Iranian oil during the negotiations" is "false."
By the close of trading, international oil prices had surged. WTI crude oil futures rose by 3.07% to $108.66 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 2.6% to $112.1 per barrel.
On May 19, WTI crude oil futures opened with a decline of up to 2%, trading at $102.248 per barrel.
Warsh to Be Sworn in as Federal Reserve Chairman on May 22 According to reports from multiple U.S. media outlets, Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve on May 22.
A White House official stated that Trump will hold an inauguration ceremony for Warsh at the White House.
The U.S. Senate confirmed on May 13, with a vote of 54 in favor and 45 against, that Warsh will succeed Jerome Powell as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve for a four-year term. Powell's term as Fed Chairman ended on May 15, and he has since begun serving as Interim Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Analysts: Short-Term Upside Remains for Crude Oil Prices Yesterday, domestic crude oil-related products saw significant gains, with low-sulfur fuel oil and crude oil futures rising by over 6%.
Huang Chen, a crude oil researcher at Huishang Futures, believes that the direct cause of the surge in domestic crude oil-related products on Monday was the increase in geopolitical risk premiums. On Monday, market news indicated that the Pentagon is preparing to resume military operations against Iran, with the U.S. and Israel potentially resuming military strikes as early as next week. Additionally, on May 17, Trump stated that Iran is "running out of time" and would face heavier strikes if it refuses to make substantial concessions on its nuclear program. He confirmed that he would discuss military action options with his senior national security team in the Situation Room on Tuesday.
According to Ye Haiwen, manager of the Energy and Chemical Research Center at Guomao Futures, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, leading to accelerated global crude oil inventory drawdowns in March and April, with daily drawdowns reaching millions of barrels. Overall inventories have fallen to low levels in recent years. Currently, there is a significant supply gap in the crude oil market, which is difficult to fill in the short term through increased production or the release of strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). Production capacity outside the Gulf region is limited, while countries like the U.S. and Brazil have insufficient spare capacity. In terms of SPR, although the IEA previously coordinated the release of 400 million barrels of SPR, this can only cover a supply gap of 20–25 days. The IEA estimates that the current global crude oil supply-demand gap is approximately 6 million barrels per day, and by 2026, the gap is expected to be around 1.8 million barrels per day.
"Currently, the global crude oil market is in a state of 'supply falling short of demand,' with differentiated inventory structures, weak demand coexisting with production cuts, and rigid supply gaps in regions such as East Asia and Europe," Huang Chen said.
Is there still upside for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil prices? Ye Haiwen believes that short-term upside remains for both. Currently, geopolitical risks remain high, combined with low global crude oil inventories and a significant supply gap, making oil prices prone to rise rather than fall. If geopolitical conflicts escalate further, domestic and international crude oil prices may break through resistance levels.
"Short-term upside remains for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil prices, but the driving logic and upward trajectory differ. For crude oil, normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to resume in the short term, and geopolitical risk premiums may further increase. CFTC持仓数据显示布伦特原油期货净多头头寸增加，资金仍在增加多头仓位。If the military action decided in Tuesday's Situation Room meeting materializes, oil prices may test previous highs, but weak demand for refined oil products will limit the upside, with $120 per barrel likely acting as a resistance level. Low-sulfur fuel oil itself faces ample supply, and if geopolitical tensions ease, its price correction could be more significant," Huang Chen said.
However, the analysts cautioned that potential downside risks remain in the crude oil market. First, the global economic recovery remains weak, with recent increases in overseas bond yields and persistently high interest rates continuing to suppress refined oil product consumption. Coupled with weaker-than-expected summer travel demand, crude oil demand growth remains sluggish. Second, U.S. crude oil production remains high, and supply from non-OPEC oil-producing countries is steadily increasing, partially filling the market supply gap. Finally, increased maintenance at domestic refineries and reduced operating rates have cooled crude oil procurement and consumption demand.
"In the future, key indicators to focus on include: EIA crude oil inventories, OPEC monthly production data, global refinery operating rates, U.S. dollar index trends, inflation and interest rate policies in Europe and the U.S., global refined oil product crack spreads, shipping traffic data, domestic crude oil import volumes, and fuel oil spot market trading activity," Ye Haiwen said.
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