扭转操作3.0要来了？这可能是鲍威尔今晚的大招

华尔街见闻2021-03-04

作者：曹泽熙鲍威尔将于北京时间周五凌晨1:05发表演讲，全球屏息以待其对美债收益率的表态。尽管美联储理事布雷纳德周二承认了市场上存在美债收益率急涨可能抑制经济活动的担忧，但近日来，许多美联储官员对此持轻描淡写的态度。面对疯狂上升的美债收益率，鲍威尔会作何表态？目前市场最大的共识，是美联储将开始进行有史以来第三次“扭转操作”（operation twist）。什么是扭转操作？所谓“扭转操作”是美联储...

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Comments

shiawkong
2021-03-05
shiawkong
開始了嗎？
任可
2021-03-04
任可
你認爲他會來那他肯定不會來
Huhu生威
2021-03-04
Huhu生威
再不出手，美股就崩了
Chz_SG
2021-03-04
Chz_SG
期待一波暴漲
- Chz_SG:
  [龇牙]
清华北大不如胆大
2021-03-04
清华北大不如胆大
美國是如此的呵護股市
心急要吃热豆腐
2021-03-04
心急要吃热豆腐
十分懷念特朗普，一頓操作猛如虎，漲跌全靠特朗普

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This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109713751","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"有分析认为，扭转操作3.0能够达到一石三鸟的效果","content":"Author: Cao ZexiPowell will deliver a speech at 1:05 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, as the world waits with bated breath for his statement on U.S. bond yields.Although Federal Reserve Governor Brainard acknowledged on Tuesday that there are concerns in the market that a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields may curb economic activity, many Fed officials have downplayed this in recent days.In the face of the crazy rise in U.S. bond yields, what will Powell say?At present, the biggest consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve will begin its third \"operation twist\" in history.What is a twist operation?The so-called \"reversal operation\" is an economic policy of the Federal Reserve. By selling short-term bonds and buying long-term bonds, it lowers the interest rate of long-term bonds, thereby encouraging the banking industry to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby stimulating the economy.The Twist operation was designed by American economist James Tobin in the early 1960s, and its name comes from the popular Twist dance at that time.The reversal operation was subsequently first adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1961. At that time, the Federal Reserve purchased $4 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury Bond, mainly five-year, and sold short-term bonds at the same time. In addition to lowering the interest rate of long-term bonds, it also hoped to reduce the loss of U.S. gold reserves, but the effect that year was not great.In September 2011, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted the twist operation for the second time, hoping to solve the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis for many years.What is different about Twist Operation 3.0?During the post-pandemic recovery, the Fed has yet to target its \"liquidity cannon\" at the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond. Still, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas believes this could happen again given the Fed's past attempts to control the yield curve:In 2011, the San Francisco Fed published an analysis report on the 1961 'Operation Twist'. The net effect, the study found, was to push long-term yields down by 0.15 percentage points.Regarding Operation Twist 2.0, that is, the Federal Reserve implemented Operation Twist from September 2011 to December 2012. As a result, the U.S. bond yield curve tilted. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell from a peak of 3.75% to a low of 1.44%. Then, as the operation ended, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield rose above 3.0% the following year.Colas concluded that \"the Fed can absolutely push long-term interest rates down by 100 basis points or more.\" He also believes that this is the most important focus for investors to focus on Powell's speech.While not all investors can understand past Operation Twist, some investors may be disappointed if Powell doesn't unveil Operation Twist 3.0 in his speech.The market is worried that given that the U.S. stock market is already in a very volatile state, it seems that almost any disturbance may trigger a summer promotion, including, of course, if the Fed refuses to lower long-term Treasury Bond yields.Why does everyone think there will be \"Twist Operation 3.0\"?Although in any market turmoil, there will be all kinds of speculations and rumors in the US market about how the Federal Reserve will rescue the market.However, this time it seems different.Because this time, the rumors about \"Operation Twist 3.0\" first came from Mark Cabana, a fixed income strategist at Bank of America, who was a former New York Fed employee. A person who \"occasionally\" heard advising the New York Fed mention this idea.In a recent report, Cabana warned that the recent rise in interest rates could turn \"unhealthy\":We are worried that as the economy, markets and the Federal Reserve all approach an'inflection point 'in the spring or summer, interest rate movements may become unhealthy. This is likely to happen as the macro environment improves and markets and the Fed shift. For now, we believe the Fed may begin to adjust its'blind dovish 'stance on monetary policy and begin to lay the groundwork for the start of tapering asset purchases in 2022.Cabana believes that central banks simply cannot afford such high global debt rates.Cabana wrote in a note published over the weekend that the Fed should return to \"Operation Twist\" to effectively address key issues related to the workings of markets.He believes that this move can achieve the effect of killing three birds with one stone: raising short-term interest rates, stabilizing long-term interest rates, and doing so in a reserve-neutral manner, thus reducing pressure on bank SLRs to hold more capital.","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Twist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTwist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-03-04 21:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAuthor: Cao ZexiPowell will deliver a speech at 1:05 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, as the world waits with bated breath for his statement on U.S. bond yields.Although Federal Reserve Governor Brainard acknowledged on Tuesday that there are concerns in the market that a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields may curb economic activity, many Fed officials have downplayed this in recent days.In the face of the crazy rise in U.S. bond yields, what will Powell say?At present, the biggest consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve will begin its third \"operation twist\" in history.What is a twist operation?The so-called \"reversal operation\" is an economic policy of the Federal Reserve. By selling short-term bonds and buying long-term bonds, it lowers the interest rate of long-term bonds, thereby encouraging the banking industry to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby stimulating the economy.The Twist operation was designed by American economist James Tobin in the early 1960s, and its name comes from the popular Twist dance at that time.The reversal operation was subsequently first adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1961. At that time, the Federal Reserve purchased $4 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury Bond, mainly five-year, and sold short-term bonds at the same time. In addition to lowering the interest rate of long-term bonds, it also hoped to reduce the loss of U.S. gold reserves, but the effect that year was not great.In September 2011, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted the twist operation for the second time, hoping to solve the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis for many years.What is different about Twist Operation 3.0?During the post-pandemic recovery, the Fed has yet to target its \"liquidity cannon\" at the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond. Still, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas believes this could happen again given the Fed's past attempts to control the yield curve:In 2011, the San Francisco Fed published an analysis report on the 1961 'Operation Twist'. The net effect, the study found, was to push long-term yields down by 0.15 percentage points.Regarding Operation Twist 2.0, that is, the Federal Reserve implemented Operation Twist from September 2011 to December 2012. As a result, the U.S. bond yield curve tilted. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell from a peak of 3.75% to a low of 1.44%. Then, as the operation ended, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield rose above 3.0% the following year.Colas concluded that \"the Fed can absolutely push long-term interest rates down by 100 basis points or more.\" He also believes that this is the most important focus for investors to focus on Powell's speech.While not all investors can understand past Operation Twist, some investors may be disappointed if Powell doesn't unveil Operation Twist 3.0 in his speech.The market is worried that given that the U.S. stock market is already in a very volatile state, it seems that almost any disturbance may trigger a summer promotion, including, of course, if the Fed refuses to lower long-term Treasury Bond yields.Why does everyone think there will be \"Twist Operation 3.0\"?Although in any market turmoil, there will be all kinds of speculations and rumors in the US market about how the Federal Reserve will rescue the market.However, this time it seems different.Because this time, the rumors about \"Operation Twist 3.0\" first came from Mark Cabana, a fixed income strategist at Bank of America, who was a former New York Fed employee. A person who \"occasionally\" heard advising the New York Fed mention this idea.In a recent report, Cabana warned that the recent rise in interest rates could turn \"unhealthy\":We are worried that as the economy, markets and the Federal Reserve all approach an'inflection point 'in the spring or summer, interest rate movements may become unhealthy. This is likely to happen as the macro environment improves and markets and the Fed shift. For now, we believe the Fed may begin to adjust its'blind dovish 'stance on monetary policy and begin to lay the groundwork for the start of tapering asset purchases in 2022.Cabana believes that central banks simply cannot afford such high global debt rates.Cabana wrote in a note published over the weekend that the Fed should return to \"Operation Twist\" to effectively address key issues related to the workings of markets.He believes that this move can achieve the effect of killing three birds with one stone: raising short-term interest rates, stabilizing long-term interest rates, and doing so in a reserve-neutral manner, thus reducing pressure on bank SLRs to hold more capital.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622471\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b37cbfdbd9fac06fc4ae2f84ad058a92","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622471","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1109713751","content_text":"作者：曹泽熙鲍威尔将于北京时间周五凌晨1:05发表演讲，全球屏息以待其对美债收益率的表态。尽管美联储理事布雷纳德周二承认了市场上存在美债收益率急涨可能抑制经济活动的担忧，但近日来，许多美联储官员对此持轻描淡写的态度。面对疯狂上升的美债收益率，鲍威尔会作何表态？目前市场最大的共识，是美联储将开始进行有史以来第三次“扭转操作”（operation twist）。什么是扭转操作？所谓“扭转操作”是美联储的一种经济政策，通过卖出短债及买入长债，压低长债利率，借此励银行业向中小企放贷，从而刺激经济。扭转操作由美国经济学家詹姆士·托宾于1960年代初设计，名称来自当时流行的扭扭舞（Twist）。扭转操作其后获美国联邦储备局于1961年首次采用。当时联储局购入以五年期为主的40亿美元长期美国国债，同时卖出短债，目的除了降低长债利率，更希望减少流失美国黄金储备，但当年的成效不大。2011年9月，美国联邦储备局第二次采用扭曲操作，希望能够解决金融危机引起多年的经济不景气。扭转操作3.0有什么不同？在疫情后复苏期间，美联储尚未将其“流动性大炮”对准10年期美国国债。不过，DataTrek联合创始Nick Colas认为，鉴于美联储过去曾试图控制收益率曲线，这种情况可能会再次发生：2011年，旧金山联储发表了一份关于1961年‘扭转操作’(Operation Twist)的分析报告。研究发现，净效应是将长期收益率推低0.15个百分点。关于扭转操作2.0，也就是美联储在2011年9月至2012年12月期间实施了扭转操作，结果是，美债收益率曲线发生倾斜。10年期国债收益率从3.75%的峰值跌至1.44%的低点。然后，随着操作结束，10年期国债收益率在第二年升至3.0%以上。Colas的结论是，“美联储绝对可以将长期利率压低100基点或更多。”他还认为，这是投资者关注鲍威尔讲话最重要的焦点。虽然并非所有投资者都能了解过去的“扭转操作”，但如果鲍威尔在讲话中没有公布“扭转操作3.0”，一些投资者可能会感到失望。市场担忧的是，鉴于美国股市已经处于非常不稳定的状态，似乎几乎任何风吹草动都可能引发夏促哦，当然这也包括，如果美联储拒绝降低长期国债收益率。为什么大家都认为会出现“扭转操作3.0”？尽管在任何市场动荡时，美国市场都会有各种各样美联储会如何如何出手救市的猜测和传闻。但是，这一次似乎不一样。因为这一次，关于“扭转操作3.0”的传言最先来自于美国银行固收策略师Mark Cabana，他此前是前纽约联储的职员，一位“偶尔”听到为纽约联储提供建议的人提到了这一想法。Cabana在最近的一份报告中警告说，最近的利率上扬可能会变成“不健康的”：我们担心，随着经济，市场和美联储在春季或夏季都接近一个‘拐点’，利率走势可能会变得不健康。这可能会随着宏观环境的改善以及市场和美联储的转变而发生。目前，我们认为美联储可能会开始调整其货币政策的‘盲目的鸽派’立场，并开始为2022年开始缩减资产购买规模奠定基础。Cabana认为，央行根本无法承受如此高的全球债务利率。Cabana在周末发表的一份报告中写道，美联储应重新采取“扭转操作”，以有效解决与市场运作有关的关键问题。他认为，此举能够达到一石三鸟的效果：提高了短期利率，稳定了长期利率，并且以储备中立的方式这样做，从而减轻了银行SLR持有更多资本的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":364442464,"gmtCreate":1614871323258,"gmtModify":1704776402589,"author":{"id":"3491288457950231","authorId":"3491288457950231","name":"任可","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c96e7d8aead022647254e1c4fe3d35a8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3491288457950231","idStr":"3491288457950231"},"htmlText":"你認爲他會來那他肯定不會來","listText":"你認爲他會來那他肯定不會來","text":"你認爲他會來那他肯定不會來","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364442464","repostId":1109713751,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109713751","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614863319,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109713751?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 21:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Twist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109713751","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"有分析认为，扭转操作3.0能够达到一石三鸟的效果","content":"Author: Cao ZexiPowell will deliver a speech at 1:05 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, as the world waits with bated breath for his statement on U.S. bond yields.Although Federal Reserve Governor Brainard acknowledged on Tuesday that there are concerns in the market that a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields may curb economic activity, many Fed officials have downplayed this in recent days.In the face of the crazy rise in U.S. bond yields, what will Powell say?At present, the biggest consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve will begin its third \"operation twist\" in history.What is a twist operation?The so-called \"reversal operation\" is an economic policy of the Federal Reserve. By selling short-term bonds and buying long-term bonds, it lowers the interest rate of long-term bonds, thereby encouraging the banking industry to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby stimulating the economy.The Twist operation was designed by American economist James Tobin in the early 1960s, and its name comes from the popular Twist dance at that time.The reversal operation was subsequently first adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1961. At that time, the Federal Reserve purchased $4 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury Bond, mainly five-year, and sold short-term bonds at the same time. In addition to lowering the interest rate of long-term bonds, it also hoped to reduce the loss of U.S. gold reserves, but the effect that year was not great.In September 2011, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted the twist operation for the second time, hoping to solve the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis for many years.What is different about Twist Operation 3.0?During the post-pandemic recovery, the Fed has yet to target its \"liquidity cannon\" at the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond. Still, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas believes this could happen again given the Fed's past attempts to control the yield curve:In 2011, the San Francisco Fed published an analysis report on the 1961 'Operation Twist'. The net effect, the study found, was to push long-term yields down by 0.15 percentage points.Regarding Operation Twist 2.0, that is, the Federal Reserve implemented Operation Twist from September 2011 to December 2012. As a result, the U.S. bond yield curve tilted. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell from a peak of 3.75% to a low of 1.44%. Then, as the operation ended, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield rose above 3.0% the following year.Colas concluded that \"the Fed can absolutely push long-term interest rates down by 100 basis points or more.\" He also believes that this is the most important focus for investors to focus on Powell's speech.While not all investors can understand past Operation Twist, some investors may be disappointed if Powell doesn't unveil Operation Twist 3.0 in his speech.The market is worried that given that the U.S. stock market is already in a very volatile state, it seems that almost any disturbance may trigger a summer promotion, including, of course, if the Fed refuses to lower long-term Treasury Bond yields.Why does everyone think there will be \"Twist Operation 3.0\"?Although in any market turmoil, there will be all kinds of speculations and rumors in the US market about how the Federal Reserve will rescue the market.However, this time it seems different.Because this time, the rumors about \"Operation Twist 3.0\" first came from Mark Cabana, a fixed income strategist at Bank of America, who was a former New York Fed employee. A person who \"occasionally\" heard advising the New York Fed mention this idea.In a recent report, Cabana warned that the recent rise in interest rates could turn \"unhealthy\":We are worried that as the economy, markets and the Federal Reserve all approach an'inflection point 'in the spring or summer, interest rate movements may become unhealthy. This is likely to happen as the macro environment improves and markets and the Fed shift. For now, we believe the Fed may begin to adjust its'blind dovish 'stance on monetary policy and begin to lay the groundwork for the start of tapering asset purchases in 2022.Cabana believes that central banks simply cannot afford such high global debt rates.Cabana wrote in a note published over the weekend that the Fed should return to \"Operation Twist\" to effectively address key issues related to the workings of markets.He believes that this move can achieve the effect of killing three birds with one stone: raising short-term interest rates, stabilizing long-term interest rates, and doing so in a reserve-neutral manner, thus reducing pressure on bank SLRs to hold more capital.","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Twist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTwist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-03-04 21:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAuthor: Cao ZexiPowell will deliver a speech at 1:05 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, as the world waits with bated breath for his statement on U.S. bond yields.Although Federal Reserve Governor Brainard acknowledged on Tuesday that there are concerns in the market that a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields may curb economic activity, many Fed officials have downplayed this in recent days.In the face of the crazy rise in U.S. bond yields, what will Powell say?At present, the biggest consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve will begin its third \"operation twist\" in history.What is a twist operation?The so-called \"reversal operation\" is an economic policy of the Federal Reserve. By selling short-term bonds and buying long-term bonds, it lowers the interest rate of long-term bonds, thereby encouraging the banking industry to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby stimulating the economy.The Twist operation was designed by American economist James Tobin in the early 1960s, and its name comes from the popular Twist dance at that time.The reversal operation was subsequently first adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1961. At that time, the Federal Reserve purchased $4 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury Bond, mainly five-year, and sold short-term bonds at the same time. In addition to lowering the interest rate of long-term bonds, it also hoped to reduce the loss of U.S. gold reserves, but the effect that year was not great.In September 2011, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted the twist operation for the second time, hoping to solve the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis for many years.What is different about Twist Operation 3.0?During the post-pandemic recovery, the Fed has yet to target its \"liquidity cannon\" at the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond. Still, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas believes this could happen again given the Fed's past attempts to control the yield curve:In 2011, the San Francisco Fed published an analysis report on the 1961 'Operation Twist'. The net effect, the study found, was to push long-term yields down by 0.15 percentage points.Regarding Operation Twist 2.0, that is, the Federal Reserve implemented Operation Twist from September 2011 to December 2012. As a result, the U.S. bond yield curve tilted. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell from a peak of 3.75% to a low of 1.44%. Then, as the operation ended, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield rose above 3.0% the following year.Colas concluded that \"the Fed can absolutely push long-term interest rates down by 100 basis points or more.\" He also believes that this is the most important focus for investors to focus on Powell's speech.While not all investors can understand past Operation Twist, some investors may be disappointed if Powell doesn't unveil Operation Twist 3.0 in his speech.The market is worried that given that the U.S. stock market is already in a very volatile state, it seems that almost any disturbance may trigger a summer promotion, including, of course, if the Fed refuses to lower long-term Treasury Bond yields.Why does everyone think there will be \"Twist Operation 3.0\"?Although in any market turmoil, there will be all kinds of speculations and rumors in the US market about how the Federal Reserve will rescue the market.However, this time it seems different.Because this time, the rumors about \"Operation Twist 3.0\" first came from Mark Cabana, a fixed income strategist at Bank of America, who was a former New York Fed employee. A person who \"occasionally\" heard advising the New York Fed mention this idea.In a recent report, Cabana warned that the recent rise in interest rates could turn \"unhealthy\":We are worried that as the economy, markets and the Federal Reserve all approach an'inflection point 'in the spring or summer, interest rate movements may become unhealthy. This is likely to happen as the macro environment improves and markets and the Fed shift. For now, we believe the Fed may begin to adjust its'blind dovish 'stance on monetary policy and begin to lay the groundwork for the start of tapering asset purchases in 2022.Cabana believes that central banks simply cannot afford such high global debt rates.Cabana wrote in a note published over the weekend that the Fed should return to \"Operation Twist\" to effectively address key issues related to the workings of markets.He believes that this move can achieve the effect of killing three birds with one stone: raising short-term interest rates, stabilizing long-term interest rates, and doing so in a reserve-neutral manner, thus reducing pressure on bank SLRs to hold more capital.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622471\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b37cbfdbd9fac06fc4ae2f84ad058a92","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622471","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1109713751","content_text":"作者：曹泽熙鲍威尔将于北京时间周五凌晨1:05发表演讲，全球屏息以待其对美债收益率的表态。尽管美联储理事布雷纳德周二承认了市场上存在美债收益率急涨可能抑制经济活动的担忧，但近日来，许多美联储官员对此持轻描淡写的态度。面对疯狂上升的美债收益率，鲍威尔会作何表态？目前市场最大的共识，是美联储将开始进行有史以来第三次“扭转操作”（operation twist）。什么是扭转操作？所谓“扭转操作”是美联储的一种经济政策，通过卖出短债及买入长债，压低长债利率，借此励银行业向中小企放贷，从而刺激经济。扭转操作由美国经济学家詹姆士·托宾于1960年代初设计，名称来自当时流行的扭扭舞（Twist）。扭转操作其后获美国联邦储备局于1961年首次采用。当时联储局购入以五年期为主的40亿美元长期美国国债，同时卖出短债，目的除了降低长债利率，更希望减少流失美国黄金储备，但当年的成效不大。2011年9月，美国联邦储备局第二次采用扭曲操作，希望能够解决金融危机引起多年的经济不景气。扭转操作3.0有什么不同？在疫情后复苏期间，美联储尚未将其“流动性大炮”对准10年期美国国债。不过，DataTrek联合创始Nick Colas认为，鉴于美联储过去曾试图控制收益率曲线，这种情况可能会再次发生：2011年，旧金山联储发表了一份关于1961年‘扭转操作’(Operation Twist)的分析报告。研究发现，净效应是将长期收益率推低0.15个百分点。关于扭转操作2.0，也就是美联储在2011年9月至2012年12月期间实施了扭转操作，结果是，美债收益率曲线发生倾斜。10年期国债收益率从3.75%的峰值跌至1.44%的低点。然后，随着操作结束，10年期国债收益率在第二年升至3.0%以上。Colas的结论是，“美联储绝对可以将长期利率压低100基点或更多。”他还认为，这是投资者关注鲍威尔讲话最重要的焦点。虽然并非所有投资者都能了解过去的“扭转操作”，但如果鲍威尔在讲话中没有公布“扭转操作3.0”，一些投资者可能会感到失望。市场担忧的是，鉴于美国股市已经处于非常不稳定的状态，似乎几乎任何风吹草动都可能引发夏促哦，当然这也包括，如果美联储拒绝降低长期国债收益率。为什么大家都认为会出现“扭转操作3.0”？尽管在任何市场动荡时，美国市场都会有各种各样美联储会如何如何出手救市的猜测和传闻。但是，这一次似乎不一样。因为这一次，关于“扭转操作3.0”的传言最先来自于美国银行固收策略师Mark Cabana，他此前是前纽约联储的职员，一位“偶尔”听到为纽约联储提供建议的人提到了这一想法。Cabana在最近的一份报告中警告说，最近的利率上扬可能会变成“不健康的”：我们担心，随着经济，市场和美联储在春季或夏季都接近一个‘拐点’，利率走势可能会变得不健康。这可能会随着宏观环境的改善以及市场和美联储的转变而发生。目前，我们认为美联储可能会开始调整其货币政策的‘盲目的鸽派’立场，并开始为2022年开始缩减资产购买规模奠定基础。Cabana认为，央行根本无法承受如此高的全球债务利率。Cabana在周末发表的一份报告中写道，美联储应重新采取“扭转操作”，以有效解决与市场运作有关的关键问题。他认为，此举能够达到一石三鸟的效果：提高了短期利率，稳定了长期利率，并且以储备中立的方式这样做，从而减轻了银行SLR持有更多资本的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":364454200,"gmtCreate":1614870990700,"gmtModify":1704776392096,"author":{"id":"3573019574903685","authorId":"3573019574903685","name":"Huhu生威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ed50766fb73aea7223eef8f9019759e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573019574903685","idStr":"3573019574903685"},"htmlText":"再不出手，美股就崩了","listText":"再不出手，美股就崩了","text":"再不出手，美股就崩了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364454200","repostId":1109713751,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109713751","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614863319,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109713751?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 21:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Twist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109713751","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"有分析认为，扭转操作3.0能够达到一石三鸟的效果","content":"Author: Cao ZexiPowell will deliver a speech at 1:05 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, as the world waits with bated breath for his statement on U.S. bond yields.Although Federal Reserve Governor Brainard acknowledged on Tuesday that there are concerns in the market that a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields may curb economic activity, many Fed officials have downplayed this in recent days.In the face of the crazy rise in U.S. bond yields, what will Powell say?At present, the biggest consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve will begin its third \"operation twist\" in history.What is a twist operation?The so-called \"reversal operation\" is an economic policy of the Federal Reserve. By selling short-term bonds and buying long-term bonds, it lowers the interest rate of long-term bonds, thereby encouraging the banking industry to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby stimulating the economy.The Twist operation was designed by American economist James Tobin in the early 1960s, and its name comes from the popular Twist dance at that time.The reversal operation was subsequently first adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1961. At that time, the Federal Reserve purchased $4 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury Bond, mainly five-year, and sold short-term bonds at the same time. In addition to lowering the interest rate of long-term bonds, it also hoped to reduce the loss of U.S. gold reserves, but the effect that year was not great.In September 2011, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted the twist operation for the second time, hoping to solve the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis for many years.What is different about Twist Operation 3.0?During the post-pandemic recovery, the Fed has yet to target its \"liquidity cannon\" at the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond. Still, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas believes this could happen again given the Fed's past attempts to control the yield curve:In 2011, the San Francisco Fed published an analysis report on the 1961 'Operation Twist'. The net effect, the study found, was to push long-term yields down by 0.15 percentage points.Regarding Operation Twist 2.0, that is, the Federal Reserve implemented Operation Twist from September 2011 to December 2012. As a result, the U.S. bond yield curve tilted. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell from a peak of 3.75% to a low of 1.44%. Then, as the operation ended, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield rose above 3.0% the following year.Colas concluded that \"the Fed can absolutely push long-term interest rates down by 100 basis points or more.\" He also believes that this is the most important focus for investors to focus on Powell's speech.While not all investors can understand past Operation Twist, some investors may be disappointed if Powell doesn't unveil Operation Twist 3.0 in his speech.The market is worried that given that the U.S. stock market is already in a very volatile state, it seems that almost any disturbance may trigger a summer promotion, including, of course, if the Fed refuses to lower long-term Treasury Bond yields.Why does everyone think there will be \"Twist Operation 3.0\"?Although in any market turmoil, there will be all kinds of speculations and rumors in the US market about how the Federal Reserve will rescue the market.However, this time it seems different.Because this time, the rumors about \"Operation Twist 3.0\" first came from Mark Cabana, a fixed income strategist at Bank of America, who was a former New York Fed employee. A person who \"occasionally\" heard advising the New York Fed mention this idea.In a recent report, Cabana warned that the recent rise in interest rates could turn \"unhealthy\":We are worried that as the economy, markets and the Federal Reserve all approach an'inflection point 'in the spring or summer, interest rate movements may become unhealthy. This is likely to happen as the macro environment improves and markets and the Fed shift. For now, we believe the Fed may begin to adjust its'blind dovish 'stance on monetary policy and begin to lay the groundwork for the start of tapering asset purchases in 2022.Cabana believes that central banks simply cannot afford such high global debt rates.Cabana wrote in a note published over the weekend that the Fed should return to \"Operation Twist\" to effectively address key issues related to the workings of markets.He believes that this move can achieve the effect of killing three birds with one stone: raising short-term interest rates, stabilizing long-term interest rates, and doing so in a reserve-neutral manner, thus reducing pressure on bank SLRs to hold more capital.","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Twist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTwist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-03-04 21:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAuthor: Cao ZexiPowell will deliver a speech at 1:05 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, as the world waits with bated breath for his statement on U.S. bond yields.Although Federal Reserve Governor Brainard acknowledged on Tuesday that there are concerns in the market that a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields may curb economic activity, many Fed officials have downplayed this in recent days.In the face of the crazy rise in U.S. bond yields, what will Powell say?At present, the biggest consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve will begin its third \"operation twist\" in history.What is a twist operation?The so-called \"reversal operation\" is an economic policy of the Federal Reserve. By selling short-term bonds and buying long-term bonds, it lowers the interest rate of long-term bonds, thereby encouraging the banking industry to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby stimulating the economy.The Twist operation was designed by American economist James Tobin in the early 1960s, and its name comes from the popular Twist dance at that time.The reversal operation was subsequently first adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1961. At that time, the Federal Reserve purchased $4 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury Bond, mainly five-year, and sold short-term bonds at the same time. In addition to lowering the interest rate of long-term bonds, it also hoped to reduce the loss of U.S. gold reserves, but the effect that year was not great.In September 2011, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted the twist operation for the second time, hoping to solve the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis for many years.What is different about Twist Operation 3.0?During the post-pandemic recovery, the Fed has yet to target its \"liquidity cannon\" at the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond. Still, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas believes this could happen again given the Fed's past attempts to control the yield curve:In 2011, the San Francisco Fed published an analysis report on the 1961 'Operation Twist'. The net effect, the study found, was to push long-term yields down by 0.15 percentage points.Regarding Operation Twist 2.0, that is, the Federal Reserve implemented Operation Twist from September 2011 to December 2012. As a result, the U.S. bond yield curve tilted. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell from a peak of 3.75% to a low of 1.44%. Then, as the operation ended, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield rose above 3.0% the following year.Colas concluded that \"the Fed can absolutely push long-term interest rates down by 100 basis points or more.\" He also believes that this is the most important focus for investors to focus on Powell's speech.While not all investors can understand past Operation Twist, some investors may be disappointed if Powell doesn't unveil Operation Twist 3.0 in his speech.The market is worried that given that the U.S. stock market is already in a very volatile state, it seems that almost any disturbance may trigger a summer promotion, including, of course, if the Fed refuses to lower long-term Treasury Bond yields.Why does everyone think there will be \"Twist Operation 3.0\"?Although in any market turmoil, there will be all kinds of speculations and rumors in the US market about how the Federal Reserve will rescue the market.However, this time it seems different.Because this time, the rumors about \"Operation Twist 3.0\" first came from Mark Cabana, a fixed income strategist at Bank of America, who was a former New York Fed employee. A person who \"occasionally\" heard advising the New York Fed mention this idea.In a recent report, Cabana warned that the recent rise in interest rates could turn \"unhealthy\":We are worried that as the economy, markets and the Federal Reserve all approach an'inflection point 'in the spring or summer, interest rate movements may become unhealthy. This is likely to happen as the macro environment improves and markets and the Fed shift. For now, we believe the Fed may begin to adjust its'blind dovish 'stance on monetary policy and begin to lay the groundwork for the start of tapering asset purchases in 2022.Cabana believes that central banks simply cannot afford such high global debt rates.Cabana wrote in a note published over the weekend that the Fed should return to \"Operation Twist\" to effectively address key issues related to the workings of markets.He believes that this move can achieve the effect of killing three birds with one stone: raising short-term interest rates, stabilizing long-term interest rates, and doing so in a reserve-neutral manner, thus reducing pressure on bank SLRs to hold more capital.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622471\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b37cbfdbd9fac06fc4ae2f84ad058a92","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622471","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1109713751","content_text":"作者：曹泽熙鲍威尔将于北京时间周五凌晨1:05发表演讲，全球屏息以待其对美债收益率的表态。尽管美联储理事布雷纳德周二承认了市场上存在美债收益率急涨可能抑制经济活动的担忧，但近日来，许多美联储官员对此持轻描淡写的态度。面对疯狂上升的美债收益率，鲍威尔会作何表态？目前市场最大的共识，是美联储将开始进行有史以来第三次“扭转操作”（operation twist）。什么是扭转操作？所谓“扭转操作”是美联储的一种经济政策，通过卖出短债及买入长债，压低长债利率，借此励银行业向中小企放贷，从而刺激经济。扭转操作由美国经济学家詹姆士·托宾于1960年代初设计，名称来自当时流行的扭扭舞（Twist）。扭转操作其后获美国联邦储备局于1961年首次采用。当时联储局购入以五年期为主的40亿美元长期美国国债，同时卖出短债，目的除了降低长债利率，更希望减少流失美国黄金储备，但当年的成效不大。2011年9月，美国联邦储备局第二次采用扭曲操作，希望能够解决金融危机引起多年的经济不景气。扭转操作3.0有什么不同？在疫情后复苏期间，美联储尚未将其“流动性大炮”对准10年期美国国债。不过，DataTrek联合创始Nick Colas认为，鉴于美联储过去曾试图控制收益率曲线，这种情况可能会再次发生：2011年，旧金山联储发表了一份关于1961年‘扭转操作’(Operation Twist)的分析报告。研究发现，净效应是将长期收益率推低0.15个百分点。关于扭转操作2.0，也就是美联储在2011年9月至2012年12月期间实施了扭转操作，结果是，美债收益率曲线发生倾斜。10年期国债收益率从3.75%的峰值跌至1.44%的低点。然后，随着操作结束，10年期国债收益率在第二年升至3.0%以上。Colas的结论是，“美联储绝对可以将长期利率压低100基点或更多。”他还认为，这是投资者关注鲍威尔讲话最重要的焦点。虽然并非所有投资者都能了解过去的“扭转操作”，但如果鲍威尔在讲话中没有公布“扭转操作3.0”，一些投资者可能会感到失望。市场担忧的是，鉴于美国股市已经处于非常不稳定的状态，似乎几乎任何风吹草动都可能引发夏促哦，当然这也包括，如果美联储拒绝降低长期国债收益率。为什么大家都认为会出现“扭转操作3.0”？尽管在任何市场动荡时，美国市场都会有各种各样美联储会如何如何出手救市的猜测和传闻。但是，这一次似乎不一样。因为这一次，关于“扭转操作3.0”的传言最先来自于美国银行固收策略师Mark Cabana，他此前是前纽约联储的职员，一位“偶尔”听到为纽约联储提供建议的人提到了这一想法。Cabana在最近的一份报告中警告说，最近的利率上扬可能会变成“不健康的”：我们担心，随着经济，市场和美联储在春季或夏季都接近一个‘拐点’，利率走势可能会变得不健康。这可能会随着宏观环境的改善以及市场和美联储的转变而发生。目前，我们认为美联储可能会开始调整其货币政策的‘盲目的鸽派’立场，并开始为2022年开始缩减资产购买规模奠定基础。Cabana认为，央行根本无法承受如此高的全球债务利率。Cabana在周末发表的一份报告中写道，美联储应重新采取“扭转操作”，以有效解决与市场运作有关的关键问题。他认为，此举能够达到一石三鸟的效果：提高了短期利率，稳定了长期利率，并且以储备中立的方式这样做，从而减轻了银行SLR持有更多资本的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":364450520,"gmtCreate":1614870721960,"gmtModify":1704776381421,"author":{"id":"3574247441159975","authorId":"3574247441159975","name":"Chz_SG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd3983ce386f3ffee3b4da61294a5dce","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574247441159975","idStr":"3574247441159975"},"htmlText":"期待一波暴漲","listText":"期待一波暴漲","text":"期待一波暴漲","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364450520","repostId":1109713751,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109713751","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614863319,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109713751?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 21:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Twist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109713751","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"有分析认为，扭转操作3.0能够达到一石三鸟的效果","content":"Author: Cao ZexiPowell will deliver a speech at 1:05 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, as the world waits with bated breath for his statement on U.S. bond yields.Although Federal Reserve Governor Brainard acknowledged on Tuesday that there are concerns in the market that a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields may curb economic activity, many Fed officials have downplayed this in recent days.In the face of the crazy rise in U.S. bond yields, what will Powell say?At present, the biggest consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve will begin its third \"operation twist\" in history.What is a twist operation?The so-called \"reversal operation\" is an economic policy of the Federal Reserve. By selling short-term bonds and buying long-term bonds, it lowers the interest rate of long-term bonds, thereby encouraging the banking industry to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby stimulating the economy.The Twist operation was designed by American economist James Tobin in the early 1960s, and its name comes from the popular Twist dance at that time.The reversal operation was subsequently first adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1961. At that time, the Federal Reserve purchased $4 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury Bond, mainly five-year, and sold short-term bonds at the same time. In addition to lowering the interest rate of long-term bonds, it also hoped to reduce the loss of U.S. gold reserves, but the effect that year was not great.In September 2011, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted the twist operation for the second time, hoping to solve the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis for many years.What is different about Twist Operation 3.0?During the post-pandemic recovery, the Fed has yet to target its \"liquidity cannon\" at the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond. Still, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas believes this could happen again given the Fed's past attempts to control the yield curve:In 2011, the San Francisco Fed published an analysis report on the 1961 'Operation Twist'. The net effect, the study found, was to push long-term yields down by 0.15 percentage points.Regarding Operation Twist 2.0, that is, the Federal Reserve implemented Operation Twist from September 2011 to December 2012. As a result, the U.S. bond yield curve tilted. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell from a peak of 3.75% to a low of 1.44%. Then, as the operation ended, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield rose above 3.0% the following year.Colas concluded that \"the Fed can absolutely push long-term interest rates down by 100 basis points or more.\" He also believes that this is the most important focus for investors to focus on Powell's speech.While not all investors can understand past Operation Twist, some investors may be disappointed if Powell doesn't unveil Operation Twist 3.0 in his speech.The market is worried that given that the U.S. stock market is already in a very volatile state, it seems that almost any disturbance may trigger a summer promotion, including, of course, if the Fed refuses to lower long-term Treasury Bond yields.Why does everyone think there will be \"Twist Operation 3.0\"?Although in any market turmoil, there will be all kinds of speculations and rumors in the US market about how the Federal Reserve will rescue the market.However, this time it seems different.Because this time, the rumors about \"Operation Twist 3.0\" first came from Mark Cabana, a fixed income strategist at Bank of America, who was a former New York Fed employee. A person who \"occasionally\" heard advising the New York Fed mention this idea.In a recent report, Cabana warned that the recent rise in interest rates could turn \"unhealthy\":We are worried that as the economy, markets and the Federal Reserve all approach an'inflection point 'in the spring or summer, interest rate movements may become unhealthy. This is likely to happen as the macro environment improves and markets and the Fed shift. For now, we believe the Fed may begin to adjust its'blind dovish 'stance on monetary policy and begin to lay the groundwork for the start of tapering asset purchases in 2022.Cabana believes that central banks simply cannot afford such high global debt rates.Cabana wrote in a note published over the weekend that the Fed should return to \"Operation Twist\" to effectively address key issues related to the workings of markets.He believes that this move can achieve the effect of killing three birds with one stone: raising short-term interest rates, stabilizing long-term interest rates, and doing so in a reserve-neutral manner, thus reducing pressure on bank SLRs to hold more capital.","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Twist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTwist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-03-04 21:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAuthor: Cao ZexiPowell will deliver a speech at 1:05 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, as the world waits with bated breath for his statement on U.S. bond yields.Although Federal Reserve Governor Brainard acknowledged on Tuesday that there are concerns in the market that a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields may curb economic activity, many Fed officials have downplayed this in recent days.In the face of the crazy rise in U.S. bond yields, what will Powell say?At present, the biggest consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve will begin its third \"operation twist\" in history.What is a twist operation?The so-called \"reversal operation\" is an economic policy of the Federal Reserve. By selling short-term bonds and buying long-term bonds, it lowers the interest rate of long-term bonds, thereby encouraging the banking industry to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby stimulating the economy.The Twist operation was designed by American economist James Tobin in the early 1960s, and its name comes from the popular Twist dance at that time.The reversal operation was subsequently first adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1961. At that time, the Federal Reserve purchased $4 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury Bond, mainly five-year, and sold short-term bonds at the same time. In addition to lowering the interest rate of long-term bonds, it also hoped to reduce the loss of U.S. gold reserves, but the effect that year was not great.In September 2011, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted the twist operation for the second time, hoping to solve the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis for many years.What is different about Twist Operation 3.0?During the post-pandemic recovery, the Fed has yet to target its \"liquidity cannon\" at the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond. Still, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas believes this could happen again given the Fed's past attempts to control the yield curve:In 2011, the San Francisco Fed published an analysis report on the 1961 'Operation Twist'. The net effect, the study found, was to push long-term yields down by 0.15 percentage points.Regarding Operation Twist 2.0, that is, the Federal Reserve implemented Operation Twist from September 2011 to December 2012. As a result, the U.S. bond yield curve tilted. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell from a peak of 3.75% to a low of 1.44%. Then, as the operation ended, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield rose above 3.0% the following year.Colas concluded that \"the Fed can absolutely push long-term interest rates down by 100 basis points or more.\" He also believes that this is the most important focus for investors to focus on Powell's speech.While not all investors can understand past Operation Twist, some investors may be disappointed if Powell doesn't unveil Operation Twist 3.0 in his speech.The market is worried that given that the U.S. stock market is already in a very volatile state, it seems that almost any disturbance may trigger a summer promotion, including, of course, if the Fed refuses to lower long-term Treasury Bond yields.Why does everyone think there will be \"Twist Operation 3.0\"?Although in any market turmoil, there will be all kinds of speculations and rumors in the US market about how the Federal Reserve will rescue the market.However, this time it seems different.Because this time, the rumors about \"Operation Twist 3.0\" first came from Mark Cabana, a fixed income strategist at Bank of America, who was a former New York Fed employee. A person who \"occasionally\" heard advising the New York Fed mention this idea.In a recent report, Cabana warned that the recent rise in interest rates could turn \"unhealthy\":We are worried that as the economy, markets and the Federal Reserve all approach an'inflection point 'in the spring or summer, interest rate movements may become unhealthy. This is likely to happen as the macro environment improves and markets and the Fed shift. For now, we believe the Fed may begin to adjust its'blind dovish 'stance on monetary policy and begin to lay the groundwork for the start of tapering asset purchases in 2022.Cabana believes that central banks simply cannot afford such high global debt rates.Cabana wrote in a note published over the weekend that the Fed should return to \"Operation Twist\" to effectively address key issues related to the workings of markets.He believes that this move can achieve the effect of killing three birds with one stone: raising short-term interest rates, stabilizing long-term interest rates, and doing so in a reserve-neutral manner, thus reducing pressure on bank SLRs to hold more capital.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622471\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b37cbfdbd9fac06fc4ae2f84ad058a92","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622471","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1109713751","content_text":"作者：曹泽熙鲍威尔将于北京时间周五凌晨1:05发表演讲，全球屏息以待其对美债收益率的表态。尽管美联储理事布雷纳德周二承认了市场上存在美债收益率急涨可能抑制经济活动的担忧，但近日来，许多美联储官员对此持轻描淡写的态度。面对疯狂上升的美债收益率，鲍威尔会作何表态？目前市场最大的共识，是美联储将开始进行有史以来第三次“扭转操作”（operation twist）。什么是扭转操作？所谓“扭转操作”是美联储的一种经济政策，通过卖出短债及买入长债，压低长债利率，借此励银行业向中小企放贷，从而刺激经济。扭转操作由美国经济学家詹姆士·托宾于1960年代初设计，名称来自当时流行的扭扭舞（Twist）。扭转操作其后获美国联邦储备局于1961年首次采用。当时联储局购入以五年期为主的40亿美元长期美国国债，同时卖出短债，目的除了降低长债利率，更希望减少流失美国黄金储备，但当年的成效不大。2011年9月，美国联邦储备局第二次采用扭曲操作，希望能够解决金融危机引起多年的经济不景气。扭转操作3.0有什么不同？在疫情后复苏期间，美联储尚未将其“流动性大炮”对准10年期美国国债。不过，DataTrek联合创始Nick Colas认为，鉴于美联储过去曾试图控制收益率曲线，这种情况可能会再次发生：2011年，旧金山联储发表了一份关于1961年‘扭转操作’(Operation Twist)的分析报告。研究发现，净效应是将长期收益率推低0.15个百分点。关于扭转操作2.0，也就是美联储在2011年9月至2012年12月期间实施了扭转操作，结果是，美债收益率曲线发生倾斜。10年期国债收益率从3.75%的峰值跌至1.44%的低点。然后，随着操作结束，10年期国债收益率在第二年升至3.0%以上。Colas的结论是，“美联储绝对可以将长期利率压低100基点或更多。”他还认为，这是投资者关注鲍威尔讲话最重要的焦点。虽然并非所有投资者都能了解过去的“扭转操作”，但如果鲍威尔在讲话中没有公布“扭转操作3.0”，一些投资者可能会感到失望。市场担忧的是，鉴于美国股市已经处于非常不稳定的状态，似乎几乎任何风吹草动都可能引发夏促哦，当然这也包括，如果美联储拒绝降低长期国债收益率。为什么大家都认为会出现“扭转操作3.0”？尽管在任何市场动荡时，美国市场都会有各种各样美联储会如何如何出手救市的猜测和传闻。但是，这一次似乎不一样。因为这一次，关于“扭转操作3.0”的传言最先来自于美国银行固收策略师Mark Cabana，他此前是前纽约联储的职员，一位“偶尔”听到为纽约联储提供建议的人提到了这一想法。Cabana在最近的一份报告中警告说，最近的利率上扬可能会变成“不健康的”：我们担心，随着经济，市场和美联储在春季或夏季都接近一个‘拐点’，利率走势可能会变得不健康。这可能会随着宏观环境的改善以及市场和美联储的转变而发生。目前，我们认为美联储可能会开始调整其货币政策的‘盲目的鸽派’立场，并开始为2022年开始缩减资产购买规模奠定基础。Cabana认为，央行根本无法承受如此高的全球债务利率。Cabana在周末发表的一份报告中写道，美联储应重新采取“扭转操作”，以有效解决与市场运作有关的关键问题。他认为，此举能够达到一石三鸟的效果：提高了短期利率，稳定了长期利率，并且以储备中立的方式这样做，从而减轻了银行SLR持有更多资本的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3716080,"gmtCreate":1614870815486,"gmtModify":1680779163737,"authorId":3574247441159975,"author":{"id":3574247441159975,"idStr":"3574247441159975","authorId":3574247441159975,"name":"Chz_SG","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd3983ce386f3ffee3b4da61294a5dce","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":364450520,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[龇牙]","text":"[龇牙]","html":"[龇牙]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":364435589,"gmtCreate":1614869401741,"gmtModify":1704776322941,"author":{"id":"3574216091555844","authorId":"3574216091555844","name":"清华北大不如胆大","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0dcb7ed2a91c252c651ab394754a1fc","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574216091555844","idStr":"3574216091555844"},"htmlText":"美國是如此的呵護股市","listText":"美國是如此的呵護股市","text":"美國是如此的呵護股市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364435589","repostId":1109713751,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109713751","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614863319,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109713751?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 21:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Twist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109713751","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"有分析认为，扭转操作3.0能够达到一石三鸟的效果","content":"Author: Cao ZexiPowell will deliver a speech at 1:05 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, as the world waits with bated breath for his statement on U.S. bond yields.Although Federal Reserve Governor Brainard acknowledged on Tuesday that there are concerns in the market that a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields may curb economic activity, many Fed officials have downplayed this in recent days.In the face of the crazy rise in U.S. bond yields, what will Powell say?At present, the biggest consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve will begin its third \"operation twist\" in history.What is a twist operation?The so-called \"reversal operation\" is an economic policy of the Federal Reserve. By selling short-term bonds and buying long-term bonds, it lowers the interest rate of long-term bonds, thereby encouraging the banking industry to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby stimulating the economy.The Twist operation was designed by American economist James Tobin in the early 1960s, and its name comes from the popular Twist dance at that time.The reversal operation was subsequently first adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1961. At that time, the Federal Reserve purchased $4 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury Bond, mainly five-year, and sold short-term bonds at the same time. In addition to lowering the interest rate of long-term bonds, it also hoped to reduce the loss of U.S. gold reserves, but the effect that year was not great.In September 2011, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted the twist operation for the second time, hoping to solve the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis for many years.What is different about Twist Operation 3.0?During the post-pandemic recovery, the Fed has yet to target its \"liquidity cannon\" at the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond. Still, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas believes this could happen again given the Fed's past attempts to control the yield curve:In 2011, the San Francisco Fed published an analysis report on the 1961 'Operation Twist'. The net effect, the study found, was to push long-term yields down by 0.15 percentage points.Regarding Operation Twist 2.0, that is, the Federal Reserve implemented Operation Twist from September 2011 to December 2012. As a result, the U.S. bond yield curve tilted. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell from a peak of 3.75% to a low of 1.44%. Then, as the operation ended, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield rose above 3.0% the following year.Colas concluded that \"the Fed can absolutely push long-term interest rates down by 100 basis points or more.\" He also believes that this is the most important focus for investors to focus on Powell's speech.While not all investors can understand past Operation Twist, some investors may be disappointed if Powell doesn't unveil Operation Twist 3.0 in his speech.The market is worried that given that the U.S. stock market is already in a very volatile state, it seems that almost any disturbance may trigger a summer promotion, including, of course, if the Fed refuses to lower long-term Treasury Bond yields.Why does everyone think there will be \"Twist Operation 3.0\"?Although in any market turmoil, there will be all kinds of speculations and rumors in the US market about how the Federal Reserve will rescue the market.However, this time it seems different.Because this time, the rumors about \"Operation Twist 3.0\" first came from Mark Cabana, a fixed income strategist at Bank of America, who was a former New York Fed employee. A person who \"occasionally\" heard advising the New York Fed mention this idea.In a recent report, Cabana warned that the recent rise in interest rates could turn \"unhealthy\":We are worried that as the economy, markets and the Federal Reserve all approach an'inflection point 'in the spring or summer, interest rate movements may become unhealthy. This is likely to happen as the macro environment improves and markets and the Fed shift. For now, we believe the Fed may begin to adjust its'blind dovish 'stance on monetary policy and begin to lay the groundwork for the start of tapering asset purchases in 2022.Cabana believes that central banks simply cannot afford such high global debt rates.Cabana wrote in a note published over the weekend that the Fed should return to \"Operation Twist\" to effectively address key issues related to the workings of markets.He believes that this move can achieve the effect of killing three birds with one stone: raising short-term interest rates, stabilizing long-term interest rates, and doing so in a reserve-neutral manner, thus reducing pressure on bank SLRs to hold more capital.","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Twist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTwist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-03-04 21:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAuthor: Cao ZexiPowell will deliver a speech at 1:05 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, as the world waits with bated breath for his statement on U.S. bond yields.Although Federal Reserve Governor Brainard acknowledged on Tuesday that there are concerns in the market that a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields may curb economic activity, many Fed officials have downplayed this in recent days.In the face of the crazy rise in U.S. bond yields, what will Powell say?At present, the biggest consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve will begin its third \"operation twist\" in history.What is a twist operation?The so-called \"reversal operation\" is an economic policy of the Federal Reserve. By selling short-term bonds and buying long-term bonds, it lowers the interest rate of long-term bonds, thereby encouraging the banking industry to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby stimulating the economy.The Twist operation was designed by American economist James Tobin in the early 1960s, and its name comes from the popular Twist dance at that time.The reversal operation was subsequently first adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1961. At that time, the Federal Reserve purchased $4 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury Bond, mainly five-year, and sold short-term bonds at the same time. In addition to lowering the interest rate of long-term bonds, it also hoped to reduce the loss of U.S. gold reserves, but the effect that year was not great.In September 2011, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted the twist operation for the second time, hoping to solve the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis for many years.What is different about Twist Operation 3.0?During the post-pandemic recovery, the Fed has yet to target its \"liquidity cannon\" at the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond. Still, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas believes this could happen again given the Fed's past attempts to control the yield curve:In 2011, the San Francisco Fed published an analysis report on the 1961 'Operation Twist'. The net effect, the study found, was to push long-term yields down by 0.15 percentage points.Regarding Operation Twist 2.0, that is, the Federal Reserve implemented Operation Twist from September 2011 to December 2012. As a result, the U.S. bond yield curve tilted. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell from a peak of 3.75% to a low of 1.44%. Then, as the operation ended, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield rose above 3.0% the following year.Colas concluded that \"the Fed can absolutely push long-term interest rates down by 100 basis points or more.\" He also believes that this is the most important focus for investors to focus on Powell's speech.While not all investors can understand past Operation Twist, some investors may be disappointed if Powell doesn't unveil Operation Twist 3.0 in his speech.The market is worried that given that the U.S. stock market is already in a very volatile state, it seems that almost any disturbance may trigger a summer promotion, including, of course, if the Fed refuses to lower long-term Treasury Bond yields.Why does everyone think there will be \"Twist Operation 3.0\"?Although in any market turmoil, there will be all kinds of speculations and rumors in the US market about how the Federal Reserve will rescue the market.However, this time it seems different.Because this time, the rumors about \"Operation Twist 3.0\" first came from Mark Cabana, a fixed income strategist at Bank of America, who was a former New York Fed employee. A person who \"occasionally\" heard advising the New York Fed mention this idea.In a recent report, Cabana warned that the recent rise in interest rates could turn \"unhealthy\":We are worried that as the economy, markets and the Federal Reserve all approach an'inflection point 'in the spring or summer, interest rate movements may become unhealthy. This is likely to happen as the macro environment improves and markets and the Fed shift. For now, we believe the Fed may begin to adjust its'blind dovish 'stance on monetary policy and begin to lay the groundwork for the start of tapering asset purchases in 2022.Cabana believes that central banks simply cannot afford such high global debt rates.Cabana wrote in a note published over the weekend that the Fed should return to \"Operation Twist\" to effectively address key issues related to the workings of markets.He believes that this move can achieve the effect of killing three birds with one stone: raising short-term interest rates, stabilizing long-term interest rates, and doing so in a reserve-neutral manner, thus reducing pressure on bank SLRs to hold more capital.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622471\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b37cbfdbd9fac06fc4ae2f84ad058a92","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622471","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1109713751","content_text":"作者：曹泽熙鲍威尔将于北京时间周五凌晨1:05发表演讲，全球屏息以待其对美债收益率的表态。尽管美联储理事布雷纳德周二承认了市场上存在美债收益率急涨可能抑制经济活动的担忧，但近日来，许多美联储官员对此持轻描淡写的态度。面对疯狂上升的美债收益率，鲍威尔会作何表态？目前市场最大的共识，是美联储将开始进行有史以来第三次“扭转操作”（operation twist）。什么是扭转操作？所谓“扭转操作”是美联储的一种经济政策，通过卖出短债及买入长债，压低长债利率，借此励银行业向中小企放贷，从而刺激经济。扭转操作由美国经济学家詹姆士·托宾于1960年代初设计，名称来自当时流行的扭扭舞（Twist）。扭转操作其后获美国联邦储备局于1961年首次采用。当时联储局购入以五年期为主的40亿美元长期美国国债，同时卖出短债，目的除了降低长债利率，更希望减少流失美国黄金储备，但当年的成效不大。2011年9月，美国联邦储备局第二次采用扭曲操作，希望能够解决金融危机引起多年的经济不景气。扭转操作3.0有什么不同？在疫情后复苏期间，美联储尚未将其“流动性大炮”对准10年期美国国债。不过，DataTrek联合创始Nick Colas认为，鉴于美联储过去曾试图控制收益率曲线，这种情况可能会再次发生：2011年，旧金山联储发表了一份关于1961年‘扭转操作’(Operation Twist)的分析报告。研究发现，净效应是将长期收益率推低0.15个百分点。关于扭转操作2.0，也就是美联储在2011年9月至2012年12月期间实施了扭转操作，结果是，美债收益率曲线发生倾斜。10年期国债收益率从3.75%的峰值跌至1.44%的低点。然后，随着操作结束，10年期国债收益率在第二年升至3.0%以上。Colas的结论是，“美联储绝对可以将长期利率压低100基点或更多。”他还认为，这是投资者关注鲍威尔讲话最重要的焦点。虽然并非所有投资者都能了解过去的“扭转操作”，但如果鲍威尔在讲话中没有公布“扭转操作3.0”，一些投资者可能会感到失望。市场担忧的是，鉴于美国股市已经处于非常不稳定的状态，似乎几乎任何风吹草动都可能引发夏促哦，当然这也包括，如果美联储拒绝降低长期国债收益率。为什么大家都认为会出现“扭转操作3.0”？尽管在任何市场动荡时，美国市场都会有各种各样美联储会如何如何出手救市的猜测和传闻。但是，这一次似乎不一样。因为这一次，关于“扭转操作3.0”的传言最先来自于美国银行固收策略师Mark Cabana，他此前是前纽约联储的职员，一位“偶尔”听到为纽约联储提供建议的人提到了这一想法。Cabana在最近的一份报告中警告说，最近的利率上扬可能会变成“不健康的”：我们担心，随着经济，市场和美联储在春季或夏季都接近一个‘拐点’，利率走势可能会变得不健康。这可能会随着宏观环境的改善以及市场和美联储的转变而发生。目前，我们认为美联储可能会开始调整其货币政策的‘盲目的鸽派’立场，并开始为2022年开始缩减资产购买规模奠定基础。Cabana认为，央行根本无法承受如此高的全球债务利率。Cabana在周末发表的一份报告中写道，美联储应重新采取“扭转操作”，以有效解决与市场运作有关的关键问题。他认为，此举能够达到一石三鸟的效果：提高了短期利率，稳定了长期利率，并且以储备中立的方式这样做，从而减轻了银行SLR持有更多资本的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":364577363,"gmtCreate":1614868450452,"gmtModify":1704776284026,"author":{"id":"3571158385138542","authorId":"3571158385138542","name":"心急要吃热豆腐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e57b0dfa60e6ff1f7876ca4ac8adda4","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3571158385138542","idStr":"3571158385138542"},"htmlText":"十分懷念特朗普，一頓操作猛如虎，漲跌全靠特朗普","listText":"十分懷念特朗普，一頓操作猛如虎，漲跌全靠特朗普","text":"十分懷念特朗普，一頓操作猛如虎，漲跌全靠特朗普","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/364577363","repostId":1109713751,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1109713751","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614863319,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1109713751?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-04 21:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Twist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109713751","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"有分析认为，扭转操作3.0能够达到一石三鸟的效果","content":"Author: Cao ZexiPowell will deliver a speech at 1:05 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, as the world waits with bated breath for his statement on U.S. bond yields.Although Federal Reserve Governor Brainard acknowledged on Tuesday that there are concerns in the market that a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields may curb economic activity, many Fed officials have downplayed this in recent days.In the face of the crazy rise in U.S. bond yields, what will Powell say?At present, the biggest consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve will begin its third \"operation twist\" in history.What is a twist operation?The so-called \"reversal operation\" is an economic policy of the Federal Reserve. By selling short-term bonds and buying long-term bonds, it lowers the interest rate of long-term bonds, thereby encouraging the banking industry to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby stimulating the economy.The Twist operation was designed by American economist James Tobin in the early 1960s, and its name comes from the popular Twist dance at that time.The reversal operation was subsequently first adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1961. At that time, the Federal Reserve purchased $4 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury Bond, mainly five-year, and sold short-term bonds at the same time. In addition to lowering the interest rate of long-term bonds, it also hoped to reduce the loss of U.S. gold reserves, but the effect that year was not great.In September 2011, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted the twist operation for the second time, hoping to solve the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis for many years.What is different about Twist Operation 3.0?During the post-pandemic recovery, the Fed has yet to target its \"liquidity cannon\" at the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond. Still, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas believes this could happen again given the Fed's past attempts to control the yield curve:In 2011, the San Francisco Fed published an analysis report on the 1961 'Operation Twist'. The net effect, the study found, was to push long-term yields down by 0.15 percentage points.Regarding Operation Twist 2.0, that is, the Federal Reserve implemented Operation Twist from September 2011 to December 2012. As a result, the U.S. bond yield curve tilted. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell from a peak of 3.75% to a low of 1.44%. Then, as the operation ended, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield rose above 3.0% the following year.Colas concluded that \"the Fed can absolutely push long-term interest rates down by 100 basis points or more.\" He also believes that this is the most important focus for investors to focus on Powell's speech.While not all investors can understand past Operation Twist, some investors may be disappointed if Powell doesn't unveil Operation Twist 3.0 in his speech.The market is worried that given that the U.S. stock market is already in a very volatile state, it seems that almost any disturbance may trigger a summer promotion, including, of course, if the Fed refuses to lower long-term Treasury Bond yields.Why does everyone think there will be \"Twist Operation 3.0\"?Although in any market turmoil, there will be all kinds of speculations and rumors in the US market about how the Federal Reserve will rescue the market.However, this time it seems different.Because this time, the rumors about \"Operation Twist 3.0\" first came from Mark Cabana, a fixed income strategist at Bank of America, who was a former New York Fed employee. A person who \"occasionally\" heard advising the New York Fed mention this idea.In a recent report, Cabana warned that the recent rise in interest rates could turn \"unhealthy\":We are worried that as the economy, markets and the Federal Reserve all approach an'inflection point 'in the spring or summer, interest rate movements may become unhealthy. This is likely to happen as the macro environment improves and markets and the Fed shift. For now, we believe the Fed may begin to adjust its'blind dovish 'stance on monetary policy and begin to lay the groundwork for the start of tapering asset purchases in 2022.Cabana believes that central banks simply cannot afford such high global debt rates.Cabana wrote in a note published over the weekend that the Fed should return to \"Operation Twist\" to effectively address key issues related to the workings of markets.He believes that this move can achieve the effect of killing three birds with one stone: raising short-term interest rates, stabilizing long-term interest rates, and doing so in a reserve-neutral manner, thus reducing pressure on bank SLRs to hold more capital.","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Twist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTwist Operation 3.0 Coming? This Could Be Powell's Big Move Tonight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-03-04 21:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAuthor: Cao ZexiPowell will deliver a speech at 1:05 a.m. Beijing time on Friday, as the world waits with bated breath for his statement on U.S. bond yields.Although Federal Reserve Governor Brainard acknowledged on Tuesday that there are concerns in the market that a sharp rise in U.S. bond yields may curb economic activity, many Fed officials have downplayed this in recent days.In the face of the crazy rise in U.S. bond yields, what will Powell say?At present, the biggest consensus in the market is that the Federal Reserve will begin its third \"operation twist\" in history.What is a twist operation?The so-called \"reversal operation\" is an economic policy of the Federal Reserve. By selling short-term bonds and buying long-term bonds, it lowers the interest rate of long-term bonds, thereby encouraging the banking industry to lend to small and medium-sized enterprises, thereby stimulating the economy.The Twist operation was designed by American economist James Tobin in the early 1960s, and its name comes from the popular Twist dance at that time.The reversal operation was subsequently first adopted by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 1961. At that time, the Federal Reserve purchased $4 billion in long-term U.S. Treasury Bond, mainly five-year, and sold short-term bonds at the same time. In addition to lowering the interest rate of long-term bonds, it also hoped to reduce the loss of U.S. gold reserves, but the effect that year was not great.In September 2011, the U.S. Federal Reserve adopted the twist operation for the second time, hoping to solve the economic downturn caused by the financial crisis for many years.What is different about Twist Operation 3.0?During the post-pandemic recovery, the Fed has yet to target its \"liquidity cannon\" at the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond. Still, DataTrek co-founder Nick Colas believes this could happen again given the Fed's past attempts to control the yield curve:In 2011, the San Francisco Fed published an analysis report on the 1961 'Operation Twist'. The net effect, the study found, was to push long-term yields down by 0.15 percentage points.Regarding Operation Twist 2.0, that is, the Federal Reserve implemented Operation Twist from September 2011 to December 2012. As a result, the U.S. bond yield curve tilted. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fell from a peak of 3.75% to a low of 1.44%. Then, as the operation ended, the 10-year Treasury Bond yield rose above 3.0% the following year.Colas concluded that \"the Fed can absolutely push long-term interest rates down by 100 basis points or more.\" He also believes that this is the most important focus for investors to focus on Powell's speech.While not all investors can understand past Operation Twist, some investors may be disappointed if Powell doesn't unveil Operation Twist 3.0 in his speech.The market is worried that given that the U.S. stock market is already in a very volatile state, it seems that almost any disturbance may trigger a summer promotion, including, of course, if the Fed refuses to lower long-term Treasury Bond yields.Why does everyone think there will be \"Twist Operation 3.0\"?Although in any market turmoil, there will be all kinds of speculations and rumors in the US market about how the Federal Reserve will rescue the market.However, this time it seems different.Because this time, the rumors about \"Operation Twist 3.0\" first came from Mark Cabana, a fixed income strategist at Bank of America, who was a former New York Fed employee. A person who \"occasionally\" heard advising the New York Fed mention this idea.In a recent report, Cabana warned that the recent rise in interest rates could turn \"unhealthy\":We are worried that as the economy, markets and the Federal Reserve all approach an'inflection point 'in the spring or summer, interest rate movements may become unhealthy. This is likely to happen as the macro environment improves and markets and the Fed shift. For now, we believe the Fed may begin to adjust its'blind dovish 'stance on monetary policy and begin to lay the groundwork for the start of tapering asset purchases in 2022.Cabana believes that central banks simply cannot afford such high global debt rates.Cabana wrote in a note published over the weekend that the Fed should return to \"Operation Twist\" to effectively address key issues related to the workings of markets.He believes that this move can achieve the effect of killing three birds with one stone: raising short-term interest rates, stabilizing long-term interest rates, and doing so in a reserve-neutral manner, thus reducing pressure on bank SLRs to hold more capital.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622471\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b37cbfdbd9fac06fc4ae2f84ad058a92","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3622471","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1109713751","content_text":"作者：曹泽熙鲍威尔将于北京时间周五凌晨1:05发表演讲，全球屏息以待其对美债收益率的表态。尽管美联储理事布雷纳德周二承认了市场上存在美债收益率急涨可能抑制经济活动的担忧，但近日来，许多美联储官员对此持轻描淡写的态度。面对疯狂上升的美债收益率，鲍威尔会作何表态？目前市场最大的共识，是美联储将开始进行有史以来第三次“扭转操作”（operation twist）。什么是扭转操作？所谓“扭转操作”是美联储的一种经济政策，通过卖出短债及买入长债，压低长债利率，借此励银行业向中小企放贷，从而刺激经济。扭转操作由美国经济学家詹姆士·托宾于1960年代初设计，名称来自当时流行的扭扭舞（Twist）。扭转操作其后获美国联邦储备局于1961年首次采用。当时联储局购入以五年期为主的40亿美元长期美国国债，同时卖出短债，目的除了降低长债利率，更希望减少流失美国黄金储备，但当年的成效不大。2011年9月，美国联邦储备局第二次采用扭曲操作，希望能够解决金融危机引起多年的经济不景气。扭转操作3.0有什么不同？在疫情后复苏期间，美联储尚未将其“流动性大炮”对准10年期美国国债。不过，DataTrek联合创始Nick Colas认为，鉴于美联储过去曾试图控制收益率曲线，这种情况可能会再次发生：2011年，旧金山联储发表了一份关于1961年‘扭转操作’(Operation Twist)的分析报告。研究发现，净效应是将长期收益率推低0.15个百分点。关于扭转操作2.0，也就是美联储在2011年9月至2012年12月期间实施了扭转操作，结果是，美债收益率曲线发生倾斜。10年期国债收益率从3.75%的峰值跌至1.44%的低点。然后，随着操作结束，10年期国债收益率在第二年升至3.0%以上。Colas的结论是，“美联储绝对可以将长期利率压低100基点或更多。”他还认为，这是投资者关注鲍威尔讲话最重要的焦点。虽然并非所有投资者都能了解过去的“扭转操作”，但如果鲍威尔在讲话中没有公布“扭转操作3.0”，一些投资者可能会感到失望。市场担忧的是，鉴于美国股市已经处于非常不稳定的状态，似乎几乎任何风吹草动都可能引发夏促哦，当然这也包括，如果美联储拒绝降低长期国债收益率。为什么大家都认为会出现“扭转操作3.0”？尽管在任何市场动荡时，美国市场都会有各种各样美联储会如何如何出手救市的猜测和传闻。但是，这一次似乎不一样。因为这一次，关于“扭转操作3.0”的传言最先来自于美国银行固收策略师Mark Cabana，他此前是前纽约联储的职员，一位“偶尔”听到为纽约联储提供建议的人提到了这一想法。Cabana在最近的一份报告中警告说，最近的利率上扬可能会变成“不健康的”：我们担心，随着经济，市场和美联储在春季或夏季都接近一个‘拐点’，利率走势可能会变得不健康。这可能会随着宏观环境的改善以及市场和美联储的转变而发生。目前，我们认为美联储可能会开始调整其货币政策的‘盲目的鸽派’立场，并开始为2022年开始缩减资产购买规模奠定基础。Cabana认为，央行根本无法承受如此高的全球债务利率。Cabana在周末发表的一份报告中写道，美联储应重新采取“扭转操作”，以有效解决与市场运作有关的关键问题。他认为，此举能够达到一石三鸟的效果：提高了短期利率，稳定了长期利率，并且以储备中立的方式这样做，从而减轻了银行SLR持有更多资本的压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":65,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1109713751","isCrawlerRequest":true}