Summary
Super Micro Computer's stock is at a turning point, awaiting audited earnings reports by February 25 to avoid delisting.
The company experienced explosive growth due to AI demand but faced setbacks, including delayed filings and investigations, causing stock depreciation.
Preliminary Q1 earnings show promising revenue, and a new auditor, BDO USA, is in place, with the potential for significant stock upside if no wrongdoing is found.
Major risks include possible delisting and loss of key orders if reports aren't filed on time, making timely release crucial for recovery and stock appreciation.
Futuristic microchip and digital data flowing. AI concept
For nearly two months, Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:SMCI) stock has been range-bound and traded at around $30 per share. All the previous positive and negative developments at this stage have been priced in and Super Micro’s shares are currently at a turning point. The market right now awaits the audited earnings reports, which were previously postponed, to understand whether the company managed to overcome the latest challenges or if the worst is not over yet.
If we get the audited earnings reports before February 25, then at the very least Super Micro will be able to avoid being delisted and the market might interpret this as a bullish sign and prop up the price. Otherwise, we could see a further downward movement to new lows in the foreseeable future since the delisting risk might materialize.
Considering this, the turning point seems to be just around the corner, and we’ll likely see a major price movement soon. The direction of the movement will highly depend on whether Super Micro’s earnings reports come out before the compliance date set by Nasdaq.
Is Super Micro Headed For Recovery?
Super Micro’s stock experienced explosive growth at the beginning of 2024 as the demand for its server offerings skyrocketed thanks to the generative AI revolution. Its latest available earnings report for Q4 was released back in August, and it showed that during the three months, its revenues increased by an impressive 143.6% Y/Y to $5.31 billion.
However, shortly after that report was released, the situation for the company quickly deteriorated. Super Micro has been targeted in the bearish report by the Hindenburg research firm, it failed to file its 10-K form on time, the Justice Department opened a probe against the business, and the company’s auditor from the Big Four group has also resigned. All of this resulted in a major depreciation of Super Micro’s shares, which continue to trade in a distressed territory to this day.
Despite this, several developments have happened, which might indicate a potential recovery in the foreseeable future. Firstly, Super Micro released its preliminary earnings results for Q1, which showed that the company expects its revenues for the September quarter to be in the range between $5.9 billion and $6 billion. More importantly, it hired BDO USA as its new independent auditor, while its independent special committee found no proof of misconduct.
Finally, last month Super Micro also received an extension approval from Nasdaq and now has time until February 25 to file its 10-K and 10-Q forms for FY24 and Q1’25, respectively. This is good news since BDO USA has enough time to audit Super Micro’s results and help the company avoid delisting if no wrongdoing is found.
On top of all of this, it’s also safe to say that Super Micro is positioned well to capitalize on the increasing demand for AI infrastructure. Earlier NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has been saying that the demand for its latest AI accelerators is insane, while Foxconn recently announced its highest quarterly revenue on record thanks to the strong demand for AI servers. As the data center infrastructure equipment business is expected to triple in size by the end of the decade, Super Micro has plenty of opportunities for growth thanks to its servers with liquid cooling systems.
In October Super Micro already announced that it already deployed over 100,000 GPUs with its cooling systems and introduced its new flagship servers. Then last week it began volume shipment of its high-performance servers, which might signal that the business has plenty of growth opportunities in the current favorable environment.
Considering all of this, it’s safe to say that the potential release of the audited report in the upcoming weeks could create a significant upside for the stock if no wrongdoing by the company has been made. Below is my DCF model, which highlights why Super Micro’s stock could be an attractive investment in the upcoming months.
From the preliminary report, we know that Super Micro generated $6 billion in revenues in Q1. If the auditors agree with those numbers and Super Micro generates a similar amount in revenues each quarter, then its annual revenue in FY25 will be around $24 billion. That translates to a ~60% Y/Y growth rate, which I used in my DCF model for FY25. Such growth expectations are also close to the current forecasts on the street. After that, I expect the revenue growth rate to normalize in FY26 and beyond.
The EBIT margin rate for the following years stands at 8.5%, which is the average rate in the last three years and is also similar to Super Micro’s TTM rate. All the other assumptions in the DCF model mostly align with Super Micro’s performance in recent years.
The WACC in the model is 8.5%, which is close to the market’s current average cost of capital if we exclude the financial sector. The terminal growth rate is 2.5%, which is close to the current American GDP growth forecast.
Super Micro's DCF Model
Under all of those assumptions, my DCF model shows that Super Micro’s fair value is $58.05 per share, which translates to an upside of over 70%. Considering that the company’s shares traded significantly above that price target only half a year ago, there’s certainly a possibility that the stock has room for growth if it turns out that no wrongdoing has been done by Super Micro.
Super Micro's DCF Model
Major Risks To Consider
While my DCF model shows that the stock’s upside is significant, the numbers and assumptions in that model are based on Super Micro’s previous reports and latest outlooks. If it turns out that some wrongdoings have been made by the company, then some of those assumptions in the model might become irrelevant and revisions would need to be made. This could lead to a lower fair value calculation, which could show that the upside is not significant at all.
At the same time, the risk of delisting is still real. Super Micro has already been delisted back in 2018 as it failed to file its reports on time. It regained its listing status only in 2020. If Super Micro fails to file its reports by February 25, then it could once again lose its listing status and the shares could depreciate even further.
Finally, because of all the latest developments that happened in the last half a year, Nvidia began to move its orders to other supplies to avoid the disruption of its supply chain. Companies like ASRock and Gigabyte have experienced a rise in orders, which is a bad sign for Super Micro. That is why at this point Super Micro no longer has room for mistake, and it needs to release its 10-K and 10-Q filings by February 25 to restore its reputation and prove that no wrongdoings have been made. Otherwise, there’s a real chance that the stock will lose even more value and the company will be eventually delisted once again.
The Bottom Line
At this point, everything comes out to whether Super Micro manages to release an audited earnings report on time. If the company does, such a report will not only reveal the current state of Super Micro’s business after a series of setbacks but also might disprove the major concerns that led to the major depreciation of its shares last year. Under such a scenario, we might expect a major appreciation of shares, which recently have been range-bound as the market is expecting the report. If Super Micro fails to deliver the audited report on time, then delisting risks will likely materialize and a further depreciation will likely follow.
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