Data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) reveals that retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China's domestic market reached 1.384 million units in April, marking a year-on-year decline of 21.5%. For the period from January to April, cumulative retail sales totaled 5.604 million units, reflecting an 18.5% decrease compared to the same period last year.
Exports of passenger vehicles demonstrated robust performance in April, with 769,000 units shipped overseas, representing a significant 80.7% year-over-year increase. Among these, SUV exports accounted for 572,000 units, surging by 85.8% year-on-year. Cumulatively, passenger car exports from January to April reached 2.591 million units, up 66.2% year-on-year.
**1. Review of China's Passenger Car Market in April** **Retail Sales:** The market displayed a complex characteristic of "overall pressure and structural divergence." Influenced by multiple factors including adjustments to new energy vehicle purchase tax policies, weak consumer confidence, and high fuel prices, the market trend is characterized by "slowing domestic demand, high export growth, contraction in fuel vehicles, and dominance of new energy." High oil prices have severely impacted domestic retail sales of fuel-powered vehicles, directly affecting the domestic retail recovery. In April, retail sales of fuel vehicles fell by 365,000 units year-on-year, accounting for 84% of the total decline in passenger vehicle retail sales. Amid cost anxiety, consumer demand is accelerating its shift from fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles, making the market's "fuel-electric divergence" increasingly prominent.
In contrast, the export sector tells a different story. Fuel vehicle exports grew by 130,000 units in April year-on-year, contributing 38% to the increase in passenger car exports. Recent market dynamics have seen a reduction in large-scale price cuts and stabilized promotional activities, leading some consumers who were previously waiting for price drops to begin purchasing. The Beijing Auto Show in April, now the world's largest auto show, provided a significant boost to market recovery in late April.
Key features of the April 2026 passenger car market include: 1. Overall pressure with significant structural divergence, with "cold fuel, hot new energy" as the primary focus. The core reason for the domestic retail decline is the "collapse of fuel vehicles." The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 61.4% (historically exceeding 60% for the first time), indicating an electrification substitution speed exceeding expectations. 2. The share of domestic brands continues to strengthen, with successful transformation of traditional domestic automakers and slow electrification progress among joint venture brands, solidifying a "domestic brand-led" landscape. 3. Explosive export growth, with new energy vehicles accounting for 52.7% (historically exceeding 50% for the first time). "New energy + domestic brands" drive growth in tandem, making "going global" a core growth engine. 4. Passive destocking is evident, with channel inventory declining rapidly. Listed dealers are reporting comprehensive losses, and dealer survival pressure continues to increase. 5. Dramatic changes within the new energy vehicle structure: B-segment electric vehicles are surging, while economy-class electric vehicles face pressure, indicating a trend of "upward movement in the high-end, difficulties in the low-end." 6. Contribution from new models is declining.
In April, retail sales of domestic brands reached 970,000 units, down 16% year-on-year and 5% month-on-month. Their domestic retail market share was 69.6%, a 4-percentage-point increase year-on-year. Domestic brands remained relatively stable in the new energy and export markets. Some leading traditional automakers showed excellent performance in transformation and upgrading, with brands like
Retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands in April were 280,000 units, down 37% year-on-year and 33% month-on-month. Luxury vehicle retail sales were 140,000 units, down 16% year-on-year and 33% month-on-month. With a reasonable adjustment in luxury car guide prices, the luxury brand retail share in April was 10.2%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating some stabilization in the traditional luxury market.
**Exports:** According to CPCA data, passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) in April were 769,000 units, up 80.7% year-on-year and 11.8% month-on-month, accounting for 36% of manufacturer sales. New energy vehicles constituted 52.7% of total exports, an 8-percentage-point increase from the same period last year. Exports of domestic brands reached 653,000 units, surging 91% year-on-year.
**Production:** Passenger car production in April was 2.193 million units, down 1.8% year-on-year and 7.2% month-on-month. Production of domestic brands grew 3% year-on-year and 2% month-on-month.
**Wholesale:** National passenger car manufacturer wholesale volume in April was 2.110 million units, down 4.0% year-on-year and 11.3% month-on-month. Boosted by surging exports, the year-on-year wholesale growth rate in April was 17.5 percentage points higher than the retail growth rate. Wholesale volume for domestic automakers was 1.59 million units, up 3% year-on-year. The wholesale landscape among major manufacturers continues to evolve, with companies like
**Inventory:** As manufacturers maintained a relatively optimistic production stance in April, manufacturer wholesale was 83,000 units lower than production, while monthly domestic wholesale was 43,000 units lower than domestic retail. The destocking trend continues in 2026, with the overall passenger car industry inventory decreasing by 260,000 units from January to April.
**New Energy Vehicles:**
* **Production:** New energy passenger car production in April reached 1.209 million units, up 4.7% year-on-year and 7.6% month-on-month.
* **Wholesale:** New energy passenger car wholesale sales in April were 1.225 million units, up 7.5% year-on-year and 7.0% month-on-month. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 58.0%, a 6-percentage-point increase from April 2025.
* **Retail:** New energy passenger car retail sales in the domestic market were 849,000 units in April, down 6.8% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles within the overall domestic passenger car market reached 61.4%, a significant increase of 9.7 percentage points year-on-year and 9.6 percentage points month-on-month.
* **Exports:** New energy passenger car exports in April were 406,000 units, soaring 111.8% year-on-year and growing 18.3% month-on-month, accounting for 52.7% of passenger car exports.
* **Manufacturers:** Overall performance of new energy passenger car enterprises was strong in April.
**2. Outlook for the National Passenger Car Market in May** May 2026 has 19 working days, the same as May 2025. It is expected that the market's production and sales will continue the slow recovery trend seen earlier. Terminal momentum and consumer sentiment suggest overall improvement in the market's month-on-month recovery in May. The "May Day" holiday, coupled with various auto shows across the country, is activating purchase demand. However, soaring fuel prices remain a significant abnormal factor affecting consumption, introducing market uncertainty. With cautious income expectations among residents, a wait-and-see attitude persists in car purchases.
Multiple new models are being delivered in May domestically, continuously improving the new energy product matrix. High industry inventory and a convergence of price wars are leading to a mild destocking process at the terminal through measures like subsidized interest and gift packages, helping to stabilize the new energy penetration rate above 60%. Simultaneously, the release of high-quality domestic new energy production capacity and product strength effectively supports high export growth. Leveraging mature new energy industry advantages, automotive exports have become a core growth pillar for the industry. Domestic demand for fuel vehicles is constrained by both high oil prices and weak domestic consumption, prompting automakers to accelerate their focus on overseas markets to offset domestic pressure.
In summary, multiple intertwined factors, including international oil price fluctuations and the密集上市 of new products, will dominate the market performance in May. The "May Day" holiday provides a boost for month-on-month sales recovery, but weaknesses in consumption are difficult to repair quickly, constraining year-on-year growth. High oil prices are reshaping purchase preferences and accelerating electrification transformation, while a完备的新能源产业链 continues to empower export growth. The overall market presents a weak recovery pattern characterized by "month-on-month回暖, year-on-year pressure, divergence in domestic demand, exports leading the way, and continuous increase in new energy penetration rate."
**3. Automobile Industry Profit Margin of 3.2% from January to March 2026** In the first quarter of 2026, facing multiple challenges, the automotive industry's revenue was 2,412.8 billion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year; costs were 2,140.6 billion yuan, up 0.7%; and profits were 78.4 billion yuan, down 18% year-on-year. The sales profit margin for the automotive industry in the first three months of 2026 further declined to 3.2%. The profit margin for March was 3.7%, better than the 2.9% performance in January-February but still at a historically low level. Compared to the average profit margin of 6% for downstream industrial enterprises, the automotive industry's profit margin remains relatively low.
**4. China's Automobile Exports of 2.34 Million Units from January to March 2026** From January to March 2026, China's automobile exports reached 2.34 million units, a 53% year-on-year increase. In March, exports were 790,000 units, up 39% year-on-year. New energy vehicle exports from January to March were 1.01 million units, surging 75% year-on-year, demonstrating strong performance. The performance of China's new energy vehicle exports from January to March 2026 exceeded expectations, primarily driven by plug-in hybrids and conventional hybrids replacing pure electric vehicles as new growth points for export increase.
**5. China's Automobile Imports of 100,000 Units from January to March 2026** From January to March 2026, imported automobile volume was 100,000 units, a 3% year-on-year increase, which remains a rare growth for the period in recent times, mainly due to a low base at the end of 2025. With the rise of domestic vehicles and accelerated localization of international brands, automobile imports have been consistently weak in recent years.
**6. Global New Energy Vehicle Sales of 4.53 Million Units from January to March 2026** Global sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 4.53 million units from January to March 2026, a 1% year-on-year increase. The market share of new energy vehicles reached 20.2%. Due to factors such as high tariffs and the cancellation of new energy subsidies leading to price increases, U.S. new energy vehicle sales in March 2026 were 112,000 units, down 32% year-on-year.
China's share of the global new energy passenger vehicle market was 68.3% in 2025. Entering 2026, due to a significant increase in overseas sales of Chinese new energy vehicles and relatively weak domestic market demand, China's share of the global new energy passenger vehicle market dropped to around 61% from January to March 2026. The share of domestic new energy passenger vehicles in overseas markets has risen rapidly. In 2025, their share reached 15.8%, showing substantial improvement, and it further jumped to 22% in 2026.
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