Haitong International has released a research report indicating that Li Auto (02015) reported revenue of RMB 28.8 billion for the fourth quarter of last year, a decrease of 35% year-on-year, which was largely in line with market expectations. Vehicle sales revenue accounted for RMB 27.3 billion, down 36% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in quarterly deliveries. The company delivered approximately 110,000 vehicles during the quarter, maintaining a relatively high scale among new automakers. The firm values Li Auto at 1.3 times price-to-sales ratio for 2026 and has raised the target price to HK$83.29, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating. The report noted that Li Auto's profitability has been affected by changes in product mix and price competition, with vehicle gross margin retreating from previous highs to 16.8% in the fourth quarter. For the full year 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 112.3 billion, marking the third consecutive year of revenue exceeding RMB 100 billion while remaining profitable. However, non-GAAP net profit was RMB 2.4 billion, down 78% year-on-year. Due to recent sales pressure, profitability is expected to be impacted by factors such as purchase tax subsidies, inventory clearance, and rising raw material costs. The report maintains a cautious near-term outlook but remains optimistic about long-term growth prospects. Haitong International forecasts Li Auto's revenue for 2026 to 2028 at RMB 122.2 billion, RMB 153.8 billion, and RMB 164.6 billion, respectively, representing no change, a 12% upward revision, and a newly introduced estimate.
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