On December 26, lithium prices continued their upward trajectory and achieved a landmark breakthrough. The lithium carbonate futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange surged past the 130,000 yuan per ton mark, reaching an intraday high of 130,800 yuan per ton, the highest level since November 2023. By the close of trading, its latest price settled at 130,500 yuan per ton, marking a cumulative annual increase of 68.72%. The rising lithium prices are expected to positively impact the profit recovery of lithium carbonate producers, and with the ongoing global development of new energy vehicles and the energy storage industry, market demand for lithium carbonate is projected to maintain its growth.
A research report released by J.P. Morgan on December 17 revealed that analysts, including Lyndon Fagan, have significantly raised their target price for lithium carbonate to $18,000 per ton for the fourth quarter of 2026, substantially higher than the current spot price of approximately $13,500 per ton. Concurrently, the target price for spodumene, a key raw material for lithium ore, was also increased to $2,000 per ton, nearly doubling from the current spot price of around $1,100 per ton. This dramatic shift has directly impacted capital markets. J.P. Morgan announced an upgrade to "Overweight" for all pure-play lithium miner stocks under its coverage, significantly raising their target prices and suggesting substantial upside potential for these companies amid strong commodity prices.
The surge in lithium prices is creating opportunities for sodium-ion batteries. A report from China Merchants Securities noted that over the past few years, the cost of sodium-ion batteries has rapidly decreased while their energy density has significantly improved, leading to a continuous expansion of their application scenarios and scale. From an end-use perspective, automakers, considering low-temperature performance and cost factors, have begun adopting sodium-ion batteries in A0/A00 class vehicles and are extending their use to hybrid models. In the two-wheeler market, sodium batteries offer safety and cost advantages over lithium batteries; multiple companies launched sodium-battery two-wheelers in 2024, which are expected to gradually replace a portion of lead-acid batteries. In the energy storage sector, sodium batteries are progressing from residential storage to large-scale storage applications. Across various markets, including power and energy storage, sodium-ion batteries are anticipated to move towards large-scale adoption.
On December 28, CATL held its supplier conference in Ningde. The company announced plans for the large-scale application of sodium batteries by 2026 in areas such as battery swapping, passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and energy storage, potentially establishing a new trend of "dual prominence for sodium and lithium." In a recent conference call with domestic institutions, Pulti stated that its current orders for sodium-ion batteries have increased tenfold year-over-year, reaching 10 GWh. CATL is projected to ship 2 GWh of sodium batteries in 2025, with an expected minimum fivefold increase in 2026. Based on calculations at 120,000 yuan, the cost of sodium batteries is already very close to that of lithium batteries; however, the cycle life of sodium-ion batteries is 1.5 times that of lithium-ion batteries, suggesting potentially lower single-cycle storage costs.
Related Hong Kong-listed stocks in the sodium-ion battery industry chain include: CATL (03750), Zhongwei New Materials (02579), and Byd Company Limited (01211).
Comments