U.S. stock indices finished Monday's session in positive territory. Reports indicate that the U.S., Iran, and regional mediators are discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire agreement, which could ultimately conclude the conflict, although the likelihood of reaching a partial agreement before Tuesday's deadline remains slim.
**U.S. Markets** At market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 165.21 points, or 0.36%, to settle at 46,669.88. The Nasdaq Composite rose by 117.16 points, or 0.54%, closing at 21,996.34. The S&P 500 index gained 29.33 points, or 0.45%, finishing at 6,612.02. Among individual stocks, AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. saw a significant rise of 12%, while MicroStrategy Incorporated climbed 6%. Conversely, Super Micro Computer, Inc. dropped 5%, and Tesla Motors experienced a decline of over 2%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 0.2%, with iQIYI, Inc. falling 4%.
**Asian Markets** Japan's Nikkei 225 index increased by 0.55%, and South Korea's KOSPI index rose by 1.36%.
**Cryptocurrencies** Bitcoin's price increased by 1.72% to $69,515. Ethereum rose by 2.46% to $2,137.23.
**Crude Oil** The price of light crude oil for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by 87 cents, or 0.78%, settling at $112.41 per barrel. Brent crude for June delivery rose by 74 cents, or 0.68%, closing at $109.77 per barrel.
**U.S. Dollar Index** The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, declined by 0.24% to settle at 99.981. By the end of New York forex trading, one euro could be exchanged for $1.1549, up from $1.1515 the previous session. One pound sterling was worth $1.3241, higher than $1.3192. The exchange rates were as follows: 1 U.S. dollar bought 159.63 Japanese yen (down from 159.65), 0.7977 Swiss francs (down from 0.8008), 1.3914 Canadian dollars (down from 1.3944), and 9.4355 Swedish kronor (down from 9.4828).
**Precious Metals** Spot gold settled at $4,649.92 per ounce. Spot silver closed at $72.789 per ounce.
**Macroeconomic News** Two Federal Reserve officials warned of a severe inflation situation, suggesting it "could even get worse." As the conflict involving Iran pushes energy prices higher while the job market remains sluggish, officials Harker and Goolsbee both indicated that inflation is a more pressing concern than employment, hinting at support for tighter rather than looser monetary policy. When asked to assess the economic situation using a color scale from "red hot" to "smooth sailing green," Goolsbee described the inflation outlook as "at least orange. The situation is not very optimistic." He added, "I was optimistic that we were getting back on track towards the 2% inflation target, but alas, things have taken a sharp turn for the worse recently." Harker also expressed concern, noting that inflation has been above target for five consecutive years and has been "essentially moving sideways" over the past two years, stating it is now "definitely a brighter, more vivid orange." Regarding employment, Harker described her outlook as optimistic, perhaps "yellow-green," while Goolsbee rated the labor market as "yellow."
A UK-based maritime analysis firm reported that transit through the Strait of Hormuz has developed into a "dual-channel system," consisting of a northern channel controlled by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and a new southern channel along the Omani coast. Analysis shows that on April 5th, a total of 11 vessels transited the strait, with 3 entering and 8 exiting. All inbound vessels were tankers, while outbound vessels included both tankers and cargo ships. Outbound traffic was split between the two routes: 5 vessels used the northern channel and 3 used the southern channel. The report indicates the northern channel remains centered around IRGC control near Larak Island, while the southern channel allows vessels to pass outside the original controlled area. This evolution suggests a parallel system of military control and emerging diplomatic coordination mechanisms.
The U.S. services sector expanded at a slower pace in March, with employment falling at the fastest rate since 2023 and input prices rising sharply. Data released Monday showed the ISM Services Prices Index surged to 70.7, the highest level since October 2022, marking an increase of 7.7 percentage points from the previous month—the largest gain in nearly 14 years. The overall ISM Services Index fell 2.1 points to 54, primarily due to weak employment and slower growth in business activity. Businesses are under pressure from significantly higher energy and other input costs influenced by the conflict involving Iran. The Services Employment Index dropped 6.6 points to 45.2, one of the largest monthly declines since the COVID-19 pandemic. The Business Activity Index fell 6 points to 53.9, the largest drop since mid-2024. The Supplier Deliveries Index rose to its highest level since October 2024. New orders for service providers grew at the strongest pace in over three years.
The Israeli Defense Forces stated they conducted an airstrike on a large petrochemical complex in Iran's Asaluyeh region, describing it as Iran's largest such facility. The statement claimed that strikes on two major Iranian petrochemical complexes have severely damaged over 85% of Iran's petrochemical export capacity. It noted that the targeted facilities in Asaluyeh contain critical infrastructure for producing materials used in explosives and ballistic missile propellants, serving as a key supply hub for Iran's missile industry. The IDF stated it will continue to intensify strikes on core infrastructure for Iranian weapons production, aiming to cause "widespread and sustained damage" to its military manufacturing capabilities.
A research report from Citrini Research gained significant attention. The New York-based independent thematic investment research firm released a report titled "Citrini Expedition Team: Analyst No. 3's Strait of Hormuz Research Report," which quickly circulated within financial circles. The report, based on the analyst's firsthand experiences and observations, disclosed little-known frontline insights, detailed the operational model of what it described as an Iranian "toll station" in the strait, and presented conclusions contrary to market intuition—such as predicting that shipping volume through the strait will gradually increase regardless of geopolitical developments, and that Iran does not wish to close the Strait of Hormuz. The report's four core viewpoints are: 1) Strait shipping volume will continue to increase; 2) A diplomatic-style "toll station" exists, with surprisingly orderly transit regulations; 3) The potential for increased conflict coexists with likely continued growth in shipping volume, even if ground operations commence; 4) The situation involves a realignment of格局 rather than a simple win-lose confrontation, characterized by multi-party博弈. A previous "thought experiment" report from Citrini in February on a "global intelligence crisis" by 2028 had previously caused significant volatility in U.S. stocks, leading to sharp declines in software shares.
**Corporate News** Broadcom Inc. and Alphabet have entered into a long-term agreement to co-develop and supply Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). Broadcom will develop and supply customized TPUs for Alphabet's next-generation tensor processing units and provide networking and other components for Alphabet's new AI server racks. The agreement extends through 2031. Additionally, Broadcom, Alphabet, and AI company Anthropic have expanded their existing strategic collaboration. Starting in 2027, Anthropic will gain access to approximately 3.5 gigawatts of computing power through Broadcom. The scale of Anthropic's utilization of this additional AI computing capacity will depend on its subsequent commercial performance.
According to reports, Meta Platforms, Inc. is preparing to release the first of its new generation of AI models, developed under the leadership of Alexandr Wang, and plans to eventually offer versions of these models under an open-source license. Sources indicate that before the official release, Meta intends to retain some technology as proprietary and ensure it does not introduce new security risks. Alexandr Wang reportedly believes that Anthropic and OpenAI are increasingly focused on providing their models to governments and enterprises, whereas Meta's efforts are more consumer-oriented, aiming for the widest possible global adoption of its models. Sources suggest Meta acknowledges that its new models may not match the overall performance of the latest offerings from some labs but believes they can still possess advantages in certain areas to attract consumers. Furthermore, Meta will not fully return to its earlier posture of complete openness.
**Broker Ratings** Morgan Stanley raised its price target on Seagate Technology Holdings plc from $468.00 to $582.00. It also increased its price target on Western Digital Corporation from $369.00 to $380.00. Mizuho Bank lowered its price target on Super Micro Computer, Inc. from $33 to $25, while raising its price target on Dell Technologies Inc. from $180 to $215.
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