Nvidia stock was rising Wednesday after it received an upgrade from analysts at New Street, who said their fears about crypto-related weakness had mostly played out and that the outlook for gaming and datacenters was still “very strong.”
Analyst Pierre Ferragu upgraded the stock to a Buy from Neutral and set a $280 price target, up from $250.
“The secular outlook for gaming, visualization, and datacenter is still very strong, and on the datacenter front, near-term visibility is very strong as well, with supply constraints being the limiting factor,” he wrote in a research note.
One of the big concerns for investors is the impact of cryptomining on Nvidia’s revenue. That was an issue in 2018, when Bitcoin and other cryptos crashed and Nvidia’s relative multiple contracted by about 30%, Ferragu noted, while sales took a hit for four straight quarters. It was something that Ferragu, in 2021, warned investors could happen again as a slowdown in cryptocurrency activity and oversupply of Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) graphic chips could hurt the company’s revenue. It’s a legitimate fear given that Ethereum mining alone likely boosted Nvidia’s gaming revenue by about $2 billion in 2021, Ferragu calculated.
Ferragu doesn’t foresee such a drastic impact this time around in part because the market may already be pricing in a crypto correction. Since November 2021, the relative multiple has already contracted by 25%, the analyst estimated. And that’s before seeing any upside from the company’s datacenter momentum, which “benefits from excellent demand driver and a product cycle,” he added.
The upshot: “We no longer see crypto as a reason not to own the stock,” Ferragu said. “A weakness driven by crypto would be limited, short-lived, and only an opportunity to add to positions.”
Most analysts echo Ferragu’s take on the stock, with 82% of analysts polled by FactSet rating it a Buy, though some analysts have taken a more cautious approach. Baird analyst Tristan Gerra downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform on Monday, citing concerns over slowing consumer demand and falling prices for graphic cards.
Nvidia stock gained 3.3% to $222.03 on Wednesday. The stock has lost 25% this year.
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