According to a research report from Everbright Securities, attention should be paid to automakers' transition towards AI and the absorption of cost pressures from rising upstream raw material prices. The firm asserts that: 1) New automakers are actively pivoting to AI (particularly humanoid robotics): Tesla (TSLA.US) plans to gradually convert its current Model S/X production line into one dedicated to humanoid robots, XPeng (09868) announced it will commence mass production of humanoid robots in 2026, and Li Auto (02015) has established a new humanoid robotics team; 2) Since the end of 2025, prices for upstream raw materials like copper, aluminum, and lithium carbonate have been rising successively, which is expected to put pressure on vehicle gross margins, warranting close monitoring of the industry chain's progress in digesting these cost increases. The key points from Everbright Securities are as follows:
New energy vehicle sales were weak in January. 1) Li Auto's deliveries fell 7.5% year-on-year and 37.5% month-on-month to 27,668 units; 2) NIO's deliveries increased 96.1% year-on-year but dropped 43.5% month-on-month to 27,182 units (NIO brand deliveries rose 162.8% year-on-year but fell 34.0% month-on-month to 20,894 units, while the Ledao brand saw a 41.1% year-on-year and 61.4% month-on-month decline to 3,481 units); 3) XPeng's deliveries decreased 34.1% year-on-year and 46.6% month-on-month to 20,011 units.
Several new energy vehicle manufacturers launched refreshed models in January. On January 7th, BYD announced the addition of a 210km large-battery long-range version for its Qin PLUS DM-i, Qin L DM-i, Sealion 05 DM-i, and Sealion 06 DM-i models. On January 8th, XPeng officially launched the 2026 P7+ (pure electric + super range extension), G7 Super Range Extension, 2026 G6, and 2026 G9, with the new models offering enhanced value and improved intelligent features. On January 13th, the AITO M7 extended-range long-endurance version officially debuted. On January 16th, the Ledao L60 "Instant Success" edition was officially launched. The firm believes these model updates primarily aim to meet updated purchase tax technical requirements and strengthen product competitiveness.
Automakers have intensified purchase incentives. Tesla: Delivery lead times for the domestic Model 3 full lineup are 2-4 weeks; the Model Y Long Range version has a 4-6 week lead time, while the Rear-Wheel Drive version is 1-3 weeks; the Model Y L lead time is 2-4 weeks. The entire Model 3 lineup is eligible for a limited-time 8,000 yuan insurance subsidy and a 7-year ultra-low-interest financial policy. The entire Model Y lineup enjoys the 7-year ultra-low-interest financial policy, and the Model Y L qualifies for a 5-year zero-interest financial policy. New Automakers: 1) Li Auto: The L6 lead time remains 1-3 weeks, MEGA stays at 1-4 weeks, i8/L7 remain at 2-4 weeks, while the L9 lead time has shortened to 1-3 weeks (vs. 1-5 weeks in January), and the L8 lead time has shortened to 1-3 weeks (vs. 1-4 weeks in January). The i6 CATL battery version lead time remains 19-22 weeks, while the Sunwoda battery version lead time has shortened to 4-7 weeks. In January, Li Auto officially discontinued the L7/L8/L9 Pro versions, and purchase subsidies for the entire lineup continue in February. 2) NIO: Lead times for the EC7/ET9 remain 4-6 weeks. The lead time for the new ES8 has shortened to 11-12 weeks (vs. 20-21 weeks in January), while lead times for the ES6/EC6/ET7 have extended to 4-6 weeks (vs. 2-4 weeks in January). Lead times for the ET5/ET5T have extended to 2-6 weeks (vs. 2-4 weeks in January). The Firefly lead time has extended to 4-6 weeks (vs. 2-3 weeks in January). NIO/Ledao/Firefly full lineups offer a 7-year low-interest financial plan. 3) XPeng: Lead times for the P7+/G7/2025 G9 remain 1-3 weeks. Lead times for the G6/G7/G9/P7 remain 1-3 weeks. The Mona M03 lead time stays at 1-4 weeks. The X9 Super Range Extension version lead time has shortened to 4-6 weeks (vs. 7-9 weeks in January). The P7+ pure electric version lead time remains 1-3 weeks, while the super range extension version lead time is 1-5 weeks. 4) Xiaomi: January deliveries exceeded 39,000 units. Lead times for the YU7 and SU7 Ultra remain 14-38 weeks and 6-9 weeks, respectively. The new generation SU7 began pre-orders on January 7th and is set to launch in April. Orders placed in February for the Xiaomi YU7 qualify for a limited-time 7-year low-interest offer. 5) Huawei: Harmony Intelligence Driving January deliveries increased 65.5% year-on-year but fell 35.4% month-on-month to 58,000 units.
Risk warnings: Policy fluctuations; supply chain performance below expectations; industry demand below expectations; production ramp-up below expectations.
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