Meta is scheduled to announce its quarterly earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. On the prediction market platform Kalshi, traders are placing bets that the parent company of Instagram will use its earnings call to heavily promote its Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses and emphasize its cloud computing ambitions, while steering clear of discussions on social media policies.
In the "mention market" for Meta's earnings call—where Kalshi speculators wager on whether specific terms will be used during the call or presentation—traders assign a 90% probability that the hyperscaler's management will say the word "cloud." Earlier this month, reports emerged that Meta is developing a cloud infrastructure business to sell access to raw computing power.
Speculators are slightly less certain about Meta mentioning its smart glasses partner "Ray-Ban" on the call, placing that probability at 74%. Last month, Meta partnered with EssilorLuxottica, the parent company of Ray-Ban, to launch a new, lower-cost smart glasses model.
Traders see a 61% chance that Meta will mention its chips. The probability of Meta referencing its "Hyperion" data center project in rural Louisiana is just 27%.
Furthermore, do not expect Meta to talk about social media policy. Despite the UK being the latest country seeking to ban children from social media, traders believe the chance of Meta mentioning "age verification" is only 15%.
Traders give only a 20% probability that Meta will use terms like "prediction market" or "Kalshi." This comes after a June report indicated that Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg instructed employees to build a prediction market platform. Later that same month, NPR reported that Meta had briefly engaged in acquisition talks with Kalshi.
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