2014年油价“大屠杀”将重演？可能性越来越大了

华尔街见闻2021-07-05

作者：于旭东由于OPEC+未能就提高产量达成一致，这让本就紧张不已的市场，再次绷紧了神经。在上周五，OPEC+连续第二晚没有打破该组织内部的僵局，与会代表称，虽然多数OPEC +成员支持8月至12月期间每月增加40万桶/天产量的提议，同时将更广泛的供应协议期限延长至2022年底，但阿联酋仍坚决反对。因阿联酋依然阻止增加供应的提议通过,各方将于维也纳当地时间7月5日下午3点（北京时间晚上9点）...

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风水轮流转该我了
2021-07-06
风水轮流转该我了
資本運作高手
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2021-07-05
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The possibility is getting bigger and bigger","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83773ad2ae5ff728af3b278ea91338d6","symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9},"content_text":"作者：于旭东\n由于OPEC+未能就提高产量达成一致，这让本就紧张不已的市场，再次绷紧了神经。\n在上周五，OPEC+连续第二晚没有打破该组织内部的僵局，与会代表称，虽然多数OPEC +成员支持8月至12月期间每月增加40万桶/天产量的提议，同时将更广泛的供应协议期限延长至2022年底，但阿联酋仍坚决反对。因阿联酋依然阻止增加供应的提议通过,各方将于维也纳当地时间7月5日下午3点（北京时间晚上9点）继续谈判。\n就在阿联酋拒绝与OPEC+其他成员国保持一致的两天后，在周日晚些时候，沙特王子阿卜杜勒·阿齐兹在接受彭博电视采访时表示他们必须延长增产协议，并补充说阿联酋已经在OPEC+中被孤立。沙特王子的讲话，反映出目前OPEC+内部紧张的局势，并让全球市场难以猜测原油价格的未来走势。\n就在几个小时前，阿联酋能源部长Suhail al-Mazrouei再次拒绝了沙特提议的延长协议，只支持在短期增加产量。他在此前曾表示阿联酋支持无条件增加产量，这是市场需要的，但将协议延长至2022年底的决定并没有必要在现在采取。\n值得注意的是，据彭博，社特外交大臣阿卜杜勒·阿齐兹亲王表示，如果不延长协议，将达成一项后备协议，根据该协议，8月和今年剩余时间的石油产量不会增加，这可能会导致油价飙升。\n问题的核心是基线。减产或增产是根据一个基准来衡量的——这个基准数字越高，一个国家被允许开采的石油就越多。阿联酋希望在将削减延长至2022年底之前修改其基准，因为它想要在当前基准配额的基础上生产更多的石油。\n阿联酋目前的基准是从2018年10月开始计算的，当时的产量约为320万桶/天。去年，这一数字跃升至380万桶/天。阿联酋认为，2022年延期的参考框架不应该从四年前开始。\n然而，这样的计算方法对沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯来说是不可能接受的，它们拒绝重新计算阿联酋的产量目标基线，并担心向一个成员让步会促使OPEC+中的其他所有人要求同样的待遇，从而破坏已经进行了数周的协议谈判。\n两种结局：油价大涨或完全崩溃\n正像OPEC+内部的分歧一样，各大机构的分析师对于国际石油价格的未来走势也存在很大分歧。这主要是因为影响当前石油价格的因素确实纷繁复杂。\n一方面，包括美国在内的各主要经济体的经济复苏明显，石油市场的需求端在不断改善，近期OPEC+也一直维持着谨慎增产的态势；另一方面，新冠病毒的变异病毒又开始在一些地区肆虐，美欧的就业市场恢复缓慢，美国对伊朗的制裁一旦解除则伊朗的石油产能必将大幅释放等等，这些因素又在相当的程度上抑制了国际石油价格的上涨。国际石油价格站在了十字路口上。\n数据显示，国际基准布伦特原油期货周一（7月5日）报76.37美元/桶，今年上半年涨超45%；美国西德克萨斯中质（WTI）原油期货收报75.27美元，今年上半年涨超50%。整个6月，布伦特原油期货价格上涨逾8%，WTI原油价格上涨逾10%，达到2018年10月以来的最高水平。\n\n尽管油价在趋势上依然飙升，但有分析人士指出，接下来油价走势的影响因素可能是二元的。\n一方面，阿联酋正在迫使OPEC+陷入困境——OPEC+要么接受阿联酋的要求，要么在没有达成产量协议的情况下会发生解散卡特尔的风险。\n如果前者发生，油价大概率将会大涨；而后者发生的话，正如彭博在一篇文章里所说的，将会有一种更戏剧性的情况发生——2014年感恩节的油价崩溃将重新上演，因为OPEC+会有完全崩溃的风险，也就是各方各自混战，再也无法形成团结的卡特尔，并导致油价继去年的危机以来再次暴跌，噩梦再次重演。\n在去年，正是沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯之间的分歧引发了一场惩罚性的价格战，这才引发了2020年3月的恐慌。\n值得一提的是，当被问及是否可以在没有阿联酋参与的情况下提高产量时，阿卜杜勒阿齐兹表示他们不能，如果欧佩克崩溃，每个石油出口国都会为自己而战，在短暂的价格飙升之后，石油将再次暴跌。\n而阿卜杜勒阿齐兹的话，也印证了若协议破产，大概率会滑向第二种情况。\n与此同时，还有一个潜在事件会导致石油供应更加泛滥，这也将重挫油价：一旦伊朗与拜登政府达成核协议，就会重返石油市场，从而增加数百万桶石油的供应。\n加拿大皇家银行全球大宗商品策略主管Helima Croft表示，如果谈判陷入僵局，一场价格战可能迫在眉睫，如果谈判以完全的不和谐结束，就有可能回到人人为己的生产局面，这可能导致今年油价涨势的逆转。虽然他们不认为这是最后的可能结果，但也不能完全忽视它。\n据CNBC，阿格斯媒体负责中东和亚太地区原油业务的副总裁Alejandro Barbajosa周一表示，在非常短期内，协议无法达成显然意味着原油的生产会非常宽松，每个国家都非常接近价格战，但他认为OPEC+成员国不会达到真正价格战的水平。\n2014年曾发生过油价大屠杀\n在2014年的感恩节，发生过一件类似的事：OPEC关于减产的谈判发生破裂，但最终各方并未达成一致，导致各国在石油产量上各自为战，随后原油价格断崖式下跌。\n2014年11月27日，包括沙特、伊朗、伊拉克和委内瑞拉在内的石油生产国组成的卡特尔——OPEC在维也纳举行了一次大型会议。会议之前，有人猜测欧佩克国家可能会削减自己的石油产量以支撑价格。\n在那次大会中，委内瑞拉和伊朗等一些国家希望卡特尔（主要是沙特阿拉伯）削减产量以支撑石油价格。原因是这些国家需要高价才能在预算上达到收支平衡并支付他们累积的政府支出。\n\n争论的另一端是全球最大的产油国沙特阿拉伯，该国反对减产，并愿意让油价继续下跌。\n最终，OPEC无法就价格达成一致，并维持产量不变。\n随后，原油价格迅速暴跌，布伦特原油价格直接从110美元/桶跌至70美元/桶。\n而在此前的2011年至2014年期间，由于需求的激增，油价曾一度徘徊在100美元/桶左右。\n当然，2014年的那次原油价格下挫，和美国页岩油产量的增加也脱不了干系。有分析师表示，在美国页岩油产量增加的情况下，维持产量的策略旨在保持OPEC的市场主导地位。\n因此，维持产量也是OPEC不得已的决定。并且随着油价下跌，页岩油的生产也变得不那么经济了，这也将让美国减少页岩油的供应。因此，保持低油价实际上对欧佩克来说可能是有意义的。\n而当年的美国，也和目前的伊朗相似——作为原油供给最大的不确定方，它们的加入也将让可能情境下摇摇欲坠的原油价格承受更大的下跌压力。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":154652016,"gmtCreate":1625527242735,"gmtModify":1703742912155,"author":{"id":"3582661567450980","authorId":"3582661567450980","name":"风水轮流转该我了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d57305cc0a87f564e7bcb8e2500c9a66","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3582661567450980","authorIdStr":"3582661567450980"},"htmlText":"資本運作高手","listText":"資本運作高手","text":"資本運作高手","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154652016","repostId":1157720359,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157720359","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625489432,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157720359?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-05 20:50","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Will the 2014 oil price \"massacre\" repeat itself? It's getting more and more likely","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157720359","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由于OPEC+未能就提高产量达成一致，这让本就紧张不已的市场，再次绷紧了神经。","content":"Author: Yu XudongAs OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, this once again tightened the nerves of the already nervous market.On Friday, OPEC failed to break the deadlock within the organization for the second consecutive night. Delegates said that although most OPEC members supported the proposal to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month between August and December, it would also increase the broader The supply agreement is extended until the end of 2022, but the UAE remains firmly opposed. As the UAE still blocks the proposal to increase supply from being adopted, the parties will continue negotiations at 3pm local time in Vienna on July 5th (9pm Beijing time).Just two days after the UAE refused to align with other OPEC members, Saudi Prince Abdul Aziz said in a Bloomberg TV interview late on Sunday that they must extend the production increase agreement, adding that the UAE has been isolated in OPEC. The Saudi prince's speech reflected the current tense situation within OPEC + and made it difficult for global markets to guess the future trend of crude oil prices.Just hours ago, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei once again rejected Saudi Arabia's proposed extension of the agreement and only supported increasing production in the short term. He has previously said that the UAE supports an unconditional increase in production, which is needed by the market, but the decision to extend the agreement until the end of 2022 is not necessary now.It is worth noting that, according to Bloomberg, Foreign Minister Prince Abdul Aziz said that if the agreement is not extended, a back-up agreement will be reached, under which oil production will not increase in August and the rest of the year, which could cause oil prices to soar.At the heart of the problem is the baseline. Production cuts or increases are measured against a benchmark-the higher this benchmark figure, the more oil a country is allowed to extract. The UAE wants to revise its benchmark before extending the cuts until the end of 2022 as it wants to produce more oil on top of its current benchmark quota.The UAE's current benchmark is calculated from October 2018, when production was around 3.2 million barrels per day. Last year, that jumped to 3.8 million barrels per day. The UAE believes that the reference frame for the 2022 extension should not have started four years ago.However, such a calculation is unlikely to be acceptable to Saudi Arabia and Russia, which refuse to recalculate the UAE's production target baseline and fear that concessions to one member will prompt everyone else in OPEC + to demand the same treatment, thereby undermining the already underway. Weeks of agreement negotiations.Two outcomes: oil prices surge or complete collapseJust like the differences within OPEC +, analysts from major institutions also have great differences on the future trend of international oil prices. This is mainly because the factors affecting the current oil price are indeed complicated.On the one hand, the economic recovery of major economies, including the United States, is obvious, the demand side of the oil market is constantly improving, and OPEC + has maintained a trend of cautious production increase recently; On the other hand, Novel Coronavirus's mutant virus has begun to wreak havoc in some areas again, the job market in the United States and Europe is recovering slowly, and once the U.S. sanctions on Iran are lifted, Iran's oil production capacity will be greatly released, etc. These factors have inhibited the rise of international oil prices to a considerable extent. International oil prices are at a crossroads.Data show that the international benchmark Brent crude oil futures were quoted at US $76.37 per barrel on Monday (July 5), rising more than 45% in the first half of this year; U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures closed at $75.27, up more than 50% in the first half of this year. Throughout June, Brent crude oil futures rose more than 8% and WTI crude oil prices rose more than 10% to their highest level since October 2018.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e815454f7911baf0e973046b08481a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although oil prices are still soaring in the trend, some analysts pointed out that the factors affecting the next oil price trend may be binary.On the one hand, the UAE is forcing OPEC + into trouble-OPEC + will either accept the UAE's demands, or the risk of dissolving the cartel will occur without a production agreement.If the former happens, oil prices will most likely rise sharply; If the latter happens, as Bloomberg said in an article, there will be a more dramatic situation-the oil price collapse on Thanksgiving Day in 2014 will be repeated, because OPEC + will be at risk of complete collapse, that is, all parties are fighting each other, and they can no longer form a united cartel, which leads to the oil price plummeting again since last year's crisis, and the nightmare repeats itself.In the last year, it was the disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia that triggered a punitive price war that triggered the panic in March 2020.It is worth mentioning that when asked if production could be increased without the involvement of the UAE, Abdulaziz said they cannot, and if OPEC collapses, every oil exporter will fight for itself, and after a brief price spike, oil will plummet again.Abdulaziz's words also confirm that if the agreement goes bankrupt, there is a high probability that it will slip into the second situation.At the same time, there is another potential event that will lead to more flooding of oil supplies, which will also knock oil prices down: once Iran reaches a nuclear deal with the Biden administration, it will return to the oil market, adding millions of barrels of oil supplies.Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at Royal Bank of Canada, said a price war could be looming if the talks stalled, and if the talks end in complete discord, there is a risk of returning to a production situation for everyone for themselves, which could lead to oil price gains this year. A reversal of the trend. While they don't think this is the final possible outcome, they can't completely ignore it.According to CNBC, Alejandro Barbajosa, Argus Media's vice president of crude oil business in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific region, said on Monday that in the very short term, the failure to reach an agreement obviously means that crude oil production will be very loose, and every country is very close to a price war. But he believes that OPEC + members will not reach the level of a real price war.There was an oil price massacre in 2014On Thanksgiving Day in 2014, a similar incident happened: OPEC's negotiations on production cuts broke down, but in the end the parties failed to reach an agreement, resulting in countries fighting independently on oil production, and then crude oil prices fell off a cliff.On November 27th, 2014, OPEC, a cartel of oil producers including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela, held a large meeting in Vienna. Before the meeting, there was speculation that OPEC countries might cut their own oil production to support prices.In that convention, some countries, such as Venezuela and Iran, wanted the cartels, mainly Saudi Arabia, to cut production to support oil prices. The reason is that these countries need high prices to break even budgetarily and cover their accumulated government spending.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4238877c035f8d5135d04d76488675f\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the other end of the debate is Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, which opposes production cuts and is willing to let oil prices continue to fall.In the end, OPEC was unable to agree on prices and left production unchanged.Subsequently, crude oil prices plummeted rapidly, with Brent crude oil prices falling directly from US $110/barrel to US $70/barrel.During the previous period from 2011 to 2014, due to the surge in demand, oil prices once hovered around US $100/barrel.Of course, the drop in crude oil prices in 2014 was also inseparable from the increase in U.S. shale oil production. Some analysts said that as U.S. shale oil production increases, the strategy of maintaining production aims to maintain OPEC's market dominance.Therefore, maintaining production is also OPEC's last resort decision. And as oil prices fall, shale oil production becomes less economical, which will also allow the United States to reduce the supply of shale oil. So keeping oil prices low might actually make sense for OPEC.The United States at that time was similar to Iran at present-as the biggest uncertain party in crude oil supply, their participation will also put greater downward pressure on the crumbling crude oil price in possible scenarios.","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the 2014 oil price \"massacre\" repeat itself? It's getting more and more likely</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the 2014 oil price \"massacre\" repeat itself? It's getting more and more likely\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-07-05 20:50\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAuthor: Yu XudongAs OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, this once again tightened the nerves of the already nervous market.On Friday, OPEC failed to break the deadlock within the organization for the second consecutive night. Delegates said that although most OPEC members supported the proposal to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month between August and December, it would also increase the broader The supply agreement is extended until the end of 2022, but the UAE remains firmly opposed. As the UAE still blocks the proposal to increase supply from being adopted, the parties will continue negotiations at 3pm local time in Vienna on July 5th (9pm Beijing time).Just two days after the UAE refused to align with other OPEC members, Saudi Prince Abdul Aziz said in a Bloomberg TV interview late on Sunday that they must extend the production increase agreement, adding that the UAE has been isolated in OPEC. The Saudi prince's speech reflected the current tense situation within OPEC + and made it difficult for global markets to guess the future trend of crude oil prices.Just hours ago, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei once again rejected Saudi Arabia's proposed extension of the agreement and only supported increasing production in the short term. He has previously said that the UAE supports an unconditional increase in production, which is needed by the market, but the decision to extend the agreement until the end of 2022 is not necessary now.It is worth noting that, according to Bloomberg, Foreign Minister Prince Abdul Aziz said that if the agreement is not extended, a back-up agreement will be reached, under which oil production will not increase in August and the rest of the year, which could cause oil prices to soar.At the heart of the problem is the baseline. Production cuts or increases are measured against a benchmark-the higher this benchmark figure, the more oil a country is allowed to extract. The UAE wants to revise its benchmark before extending the cuts until the end of 2022 as it wants to produce more oil on top of its current benchmark quota.The UAE's current benchmark is calculated from October 2018, when production was around 3.2 million barrels per day. Last year, that jumped to 3.8 million barrels per day. The UAE believes that the reference frame for the 2022 extension should not have started four years ago.However, such a calculation is unlikely to be acceptable to Saudi Arabia and Russia, which refuse to recalculate the UAE's production target baseline and fear that concessions to one member will prompt everyone else in OPEC + to demand the same treatment, thereby undermining the already underway. Weeks of agreement negotiations.Two outcomes: oil prices surge or complete collapseJust like the differences within OPEC +, analysts from major institutions also have great differences on the future trend of international oil prices. This is mainly because the factors affecting the current oil price are indeed complicated.On the one hand, the economic recovery of major economies, including the United States, is obvious, the demand side of the oil market is constantly improving, and OPEC + has maintained a trend of cautious production increase recently; On the other hand, Novel Coronavirus's mutant virus has begun to wreak havoc in some areas again, the job market in the United States and Europe is recovering slowly, and once the U.S. sanctions on Iran are lifted, Iran's oil production capacity will be greatly released, etc. These factors have inhibited the rise of international oil prices to a considerable extent. International oil prices are at a crossroads.Data show that the international benchmark Brent crude oil futures were quoted at US $76.37 per barrel on Monday (July 5), rising more than 45% in the first half of this year; U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures closed at $75.27, up more than 50% in the first half of this year. Throughout June, Brent crude oil futures rose more than 8% and WTI crude oil prices rose more than 10% to their highest level since October 2018.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e815454f7911baf0e973046b08481a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although oil prices are still soaring in the trend, some analysts pointed out that the factors affecting the next oil price trend may be binary.On the one hand, the UAE is forcing OPEC + into trouble-OPEC + will either accept the UAE's demands, or the risk of dissolving the cartel will occur without a production agreement.If the former happens, oil prices will most likely rise sharply; If the latter happens, as Bloomberg said in an article, there will be a more dramatic situation-the oil price collapse on Thanksgiving Day in 2014 will be repeated, because OPEC + will be at risk of complete collapse, that is, all parties are fighting each other, and they can no longer form a united cartel, which leads to the oil price plummeting again since last year's crisis, and the nightmare repeats itself.In the last year, it was the disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia that triggered a punitive price war that triggered the panic in March 2020.It is worth mentioning that when asked if production could be increased without the involvement of the UAE, Abdulaziz said they cannot, and if OPEC collapses, every oil exporter will fight for itself, and after a brief price spike, oil will plummet again.Abdulaziz's words also confirm that if the agreement goes bankrupt, there is a high probability that it will slip into the second situation.At the same time, there is another potential event that will lead to more flooding of oil supplies, which will also knock oil prices down: once Iran reaches a nuclear deal with the Biden administration, it will return to the oil market, adding millions of barrels of oil supplies.Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at Royal Bank of Canada, said a price war could be looming if the talks stalled, and if the talks end in complete discord, there is a risk of returning to a production situation for everyone for themselves, which could lead to oil price gains this year. A reversal of the trend. While they don't think this is the final possible outcome, they can't completely ignore it.According to CNBC, Alejandro Barbajosa, Argus Media's vice president of crude oil business in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific region, said on Monday that in the very short term, the failure to reach an agreement obviously means that crude oil production will be very loose, and every country is very close to a price war. But he believes that OPEC + members will not reach the level of a real price war.There was an oil price massacre in 2014On Thanksgiving Day in 2014, a similar incident happened: OPEC's negotiations on production cuts broke down, but in the end the parties failed to reach an agreement, resulting in countries fighting independently on oil production, and then crude oil prices fell off a cliff.On November 27th, 2014, OPEC, a cartel of oil producers including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela, held a large meeting in Vienna. Before the meeting, there was speculation that OPEC countries might cut their own oil production to support prices.In that convention, some countries, such as Venezuela and Iran, wanted the cartels, mainly Saudi Arabia, to cut production to support oil prices. The reason is that these countries need high prices to break even budgetarily and cover their accumulated government spending.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4238877c035f8d5135d04d76488675f\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the other end of the debate is Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, which opposes production cuts and is willing to let oil prices continue to fall.In the end, OPEC was unable to agree on prices and left production unchanged.Subsequently, crude oil prices plummeted rapidly, with Brent crude oil prices falling directly from US $110/barrel to US $70/barrel.During the previous period from 2011 to 2014, due to the surge in demand, oil prices once hovered around US $100/barrel.Of course, the drop in crude oil prices in 2014 was also inseparable from the increase in U.S. shale oil production. Some analysts said that as U.S. shale oil production increases, the strategy of maintaining production aims to maintain OPEC's market dominance.Therefore, maintaining production is also OPEC's last resort decision. And as oil prices fall, shale oil production becomes less economical, which will also allow the United States to reduce the supply of shale oil. So keeping oil prices low might actually make sense for OPEC.The United States at that time was similar to Iran at present-as the biggest uncertain party in crude oil supply, their participation will also put greater downward pressure on the crumbling crude oil price in possible scenarios.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634608\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4a2187b267c2b09c55779e0a8af4ab","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634608","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1157720359","content_text":"作者：于旭东\n由于OPEC+未能就提高产量达成一致，这让本就紧张不已的市场，再次绷紧了神经。\n在上周五，OPEC+连续第二晚没有打破该组织内部的僵局，与会代表称，虽然多数OPEC +成员支持8月至12月期间每月增加40万桶/天产量的提议，同时将更广泛的供应协议期限延长至2022年底，但阿联酋仍坚决反对。因阿联酋依然阻止增加供应的提议通过,各方将于维也纳当地时间7月5日下午3点（北京时间晚上9点）继续谈判。\n就在阿联酋拒绝与OPEC+其他成员国保持一致的两天后，在周日晚些时候，沙特王子阿卜杜勒·阿齐兹在接受彭博电视采访时表示他们必须延长增产协议，并补充说阿联酋已经在OPEC+中被孤立。沙特王子的讲话，反映出目前OPEC+内部紧张的局势，并让全球市场难以猜测原油价格的未来走势。\n就在几个小时前，阿联酋能源部长Suhail al-Mazrouei再次拒绝了沙特提议的延长协议，只支持在短期增加产量。他在此前曾表示阿联酋支持无条件增加产量，这是市场需要的，但将协议延长至2022年底的决定并没有必要在现在采取。\n值得注意的是，据彭博，社特外交大臣阿卜杜勒·阿齐兹亲王表示，如果不延长协议，将达成一项后备协议，根据该协议，8月和今年剩余时间的石油产量不会增加，这可能会导致油价飙升。\n问题的核心是基线。减产或增产是根据一个基准来衡量的——这个基准数字越高，一个国家被允许开采的石油就越多。阿联酋希望在将削减延长至2022年底之前修改其基准，因为它想要在当前基准配额的基础上生产更多的石油。\n阿联酋目前的基准是从2018年10月开始计算的，当时的产量约为320万桶/天。去年，这一数字跃升至380万桶/天。阿联酋认为，2022年延期的参考框架不应该从四年前开始。\n然而，这样的计算方法对沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯来说是不可能接受的，它们拒绝重新计算阿联酋的产量目标基线，并担心向一个成员让步会促使OPEC+中的其他所有人要求同样的待遇，从而破坏已经进行了数周的协议谈判。\n两种结局：油价大涨或完全崩溃\n正像OPEC+内部的分歧一样，各大机构的分析师对于国际石油价格的未来走势也存在很大分歧。这主要是因为影响当前石油价格的因素确实纷繁复杂。\n一方面，包括美国在内的各主要经济体的经济复苏明显，石油市场的需求端在不断改善，近期OPEC+也一直维持着谨慎增产的态势；另一方面，新冠病毒的变异病毒又开始在一些地区肆虐，美欧的就业市场恢复缓慢，美国对伊朗的制裁一旦解除则伊朗的石油产能必将大幅释放等等，这些因素又在相当的程度上抑制了国际石油价格的上涨。国际石油价格站在了十字路口上。\n数据显示，国际基准布伦特原油期货周一（7月5日）报76.37美元/桶，今年上半年涨超45%；美国西德克萨斯中质（WTI）原油期货收报75.27美元，今年上半年涨超50%。整个6月，布伦特原油期货价格上涨逾8%，WTI原油价格上涨逾10%，达到2018年10月以来的最高水平。\n\n尽管油价在趋势上依然飙升，但有分析人士指出，接下来油价走势的影响因素可能是二元的。\n一方面，阿联酋正在迫使OPEC+陷入困境——OPEC+要么接受阿联酋的要求，要么在没有达成产量协议的情况下会发生解散卡特尔的风险。\n如果前者发生，油价大概率将会大涨；而后者发生的话，正如彭博在一篇文章里所说的，将会有一种更戏剧性的情况发生——2014年感恩节的油价崩溃将重新上演，因为OPEC+会有完全崩溃的风险，也就是各方各自混战，再也无法形成团结的卡特尔，并导致油价继去年的危机以来再次暴跌，噩梦再次重演。\n在去年，正是沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯之间的分歧引发了一场惩罚性的价格战，这才引发了2020年3月的恐慌。\n值得一提的是，当被问及是否可以在没有阿联酋参与的情况下提高产量时，阿卜杜勒阿齐兹表示他们不能，如果欧佩克崩溃，每个石油出口国都会为自己而战，在短暂的价格飙升之后，石油将再次暴跌。\n而阿卜杜勒阿齐兹的话，也印证了若协议破产，大概率会滑向第二种情况。\n与此同时，还有一个潜在事件会导致石油供应更加泛滥，这也将重挫油价：一旦伊朗与拜登政府达成核协议，就会重返石油市场，从而增加数百万桶石油的供应。\n加拿大皇家银行全球大宗商品策略主管Helima Croft表示，如果谈判陷入僵局，一场价格战可能迫在眉睫，如果谈判以完全的不和谐结束，就有可能回到人人为己的生产局面，这可能导致今年油价涨势的逆转。虽然他们不认为这是最后的可能结果，但也不能完全忽视它。\n据CNBC，阿格斯媒体负责中东和亚太地区原油业务的副总裁Alejandro Barbajosa周一表示，在非常短期内，协议无法达成显然意味着原油的生产会非常宽松，每个国家都非常接近价格战，但他认为OPEC+成员国不会达到真正价格战的水平。\n2014年曾发生过油价大屠杀\n在2014年的感恩节，发生过一件类似的事：OPEC关于减产的谈判发生破裂，但最终各方并未达成一致，导致各国在石油产量上各自为战，随后原油价格断崖式下跌。\n2014年11月27日，包括沙特、伊朗、伊拉克和委内瑞拉在内的石油生产国组成的卡特尔——OPEC在维也纳举行了一次大型会议。会议之前，有人猜测欧佩克国家可能会削减自己的石油产量以支撑价格。\n在那次大会中，委内瑞拉和伊朗等一些国家希望卡特尔（主要是沙特阿拉伯）削减产量以支撑石油价格。原因是这些国家需要高价才能在预算上达到收支平衡并支付他们累积的政府支出。\n\n争论的另一端是全球最大的产油国沙特阿拉伯，该国反对减产，并愿意让油价继续下跌。\n最终，OPEC无法就价格达成一致，并维持产量不变。\n随后，原油价格迅速暴跌，布伦特原油价格直接从110美元/桶跌至70美元/桶。\n而在此前的2011年至2014年期间，由于需求的激增，油价曾一度徘徊在100美元/桶左右。\n当然，2014年的那次原油价格下挫，和美国页岩油产量的增加也脱不了干系。有分析师表示，在美国页岩油产量增加的情况下，维持产量的策略旨在保持OPEC的市场主导地位。\n因此，维持产量也是OPEC不得已的决定。并且随着油价下跌，页岩油的生产也变得不那么经济了，这也将让美国减少页岩油的供应。因此，保持低油价实际上对欧佩克来说可能是有意义的。\n而当年的美国，也和目前的伊朗相似——作为原油供给最大的不确定方，它们的加入也将让可能情境下摇摇欲坠的原油价格承受更大的下跌压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":154880593,"gmtCreate":1625497257312,"gmtModify":1703742726135,"author":{"id":"3558180888833278","authorId":"3558180888833278","name":"开始你的表演","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/460cbdf90e5a9a66113bcd576b4ddd73","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3558180888833278","authorIdStr":"3558180888833278"},"htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/154880593","repostId":1157720359,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157720359","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625489432,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1157720359?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-05 20:50","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Will the 2014 oil price \"massacre\" repeat itself? It's getting more and more likely","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157720359","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"由于OPEC+未能就提高产量达成一致，这让本就紧张不已的市场，再次绷紧了神经。","content":"Author: Yu XudongAs OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, this once again tightened the nerves of the already nervous market.On Friday, OPEC failed to break the deadlock within the organization for the second consecutive night. Delegates said that although most OPEC members supported the proposal to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month between August and December, it would also increase the broader The supply agreement is extended until the end of 2022, but the UAE remains firmly opposed. As the UAE still blocks the proposal to increase supply from being adopted, the parties will continue negotiations at 3pm local time in Vienna on July 5th (9pm Beijing time).Just two days after the UAE refused to align with other OPEC members, Saudi Prince Abdul Aziz said in a Bloomberg TV interview late on Sunday that they must extend the production increase agreement, adding that the UAE has been isolated in OPEC. The Saudi prince's speech reflected the current tense situation within OPEC + and made it difficult for global markets to guess the future trend of crude oil prices.Just hours ago, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei once again rejected Saudi Arabia's proposed extension of the agreement and only supported increasing production in the short term. He has previously said that the UAE supports an unconditional increase in production, which is needed by the market, but the decision to extend the agreement until the end of 2022 is not necessary now.It is worth noting that, according to Bloomberg, Foreign Minister Prince Abdul Aziz said that if the agreement is not extended, a back-up agreement will be reached, under which oil production will not increase in August and the rest of the year, which could cause oil prices to soar.At the heart of the problem is the baseline. Production cuts or increases are measured against a benchmark-the higher this benchmark figure, the more oil a country is allowed to extract. The UAE wants to revise its benchmark before extending the cuts until the end of 2022 as it wants to produce more oil on top of its current benchmark quota.The UAE's current benchmark is calculated from October 2018, when production was around 3.2 million barrels per day. Last year, that jumped to 3.8 million barrels per day. The UAE believes that the reference frame for the 2022 extension should not have started four years ago.However, such a calculation is unlikely to be acceptable to Saudi Arabia and Russia, which refuse to recalculate the UAE's production target baseline and fear that concessions to one member will prompt everyone else in OPEC + to demand the same treatment, thereby undermining the already underway. Weeks of agreement negotiations.Two outcomes: oil prices surge or complete collapseJust like the differences within OPEC +, analysts from major institutions also have great differences on the future trend of international oil prices. This is mainly because the factors affecting the current oil price are indeed complicated.On the one hand, the economic recovery of major economies, including the United States, is obvious, the demand side of the oil market is constantly improving, and OPEC + has maintained a trend of cautious production increase recently; On the other hand, Novel Coronavirus's mutant virus has begun to wreak havoc in some areas again, the job market in the United States and Europe is recovering slowly, and once the U.S. sanctions on Iran are lifted, Iran's oil production capacity will be greatly released, etc. These factors have inhibited the rise of international oil prices to a considerable extent. International oil prices are at a crossroads.Data show that the international benchmark Brent crude oil futures were quoted at US $76.37 per barrel on Monday (July 5), rising more than 45% in the first half of this year; U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures closed at $75.27, up more than 50% in the first half of this year. Throughout June, Brent crude oil futures rose more than 8% and WTI crude oil prices rose more than 10% to their highest level since October 2018.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e815454f7911baf0e973046b08481a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although oil prices are still soaring in the trend, some analysts pointed out that the factors affecting the next oil price trend may be binary.On the one hand, the UAE is forcing OPEC + into trouble-OPEC + will either accept the UAE's demands, or the risk of dissolving the cartel will occur without a production agreement.If the former happens, oil prices will most likely rise sharply; If the latter happens, as Bloomberg said in an article, there will be a more dramatic situation-the oil price collapse on Thanksgiving Day in 2014 will be repeated, because OPEC + will be at risk of complete collapse, that is, all parties are fighting each other, and they can no longer form a united cartel, which leads to the oil price plummeting again since last year's crisis, and the nightmare repeats itself.In the last year, it was the disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia that triggered a punitive price war that triggered the panic in March 2020.It is worth mentioning that when asked if production could be increased without the involvement of the UAE, Abdulaziz said they cannot, and if OPEC collapses, every oil exporter will fight for itself, and after a brief price spike, oil will plummet again.Abdulaziz's words also confirm that if the agreement goes bankrupt, there is a high probability that it will slip into the second situation.At the same time, there is another potential event that will lead to more flooding of oil supplies, which will also knock oil prices down: once Iran reaches a nuclear deal with the Biden administration, it will return to the oil market, adding millions of barrels of oil supplies.Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at Royal Bank of Canada, said a price war could be looming if the talks stalled, and if the talks end in complete discord, there is a risk of returning to a production situation for everyone for themselves, which could lead to oil price gains this year. A reversal of the trend. While they don't think this is the final possible outcome, they can't completely ignore it.According to CNBC, Alejandro Barbajosa, Argus Media's vice president of crude oil business in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific region, said on Monday that in the very short term, the failure to reach an agreement obviously means that crude oil production will be very loose, and every country is very close to a price war. But he believes that OPEC + members will not reach the level of a real price war.There was an oil price massacre in 2014On Thanksgiving Day in 2014, a similar incident happened: OPEC's negotiations on production cuts broke down, but in the end the parties failed to reach an agreement, resulting in countries fighting independently on oil production, and then crude oil prices fell off a cliff.On November 27th, 2014, OPEC, a cartel of oil producers including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela, held a large meeting in Vienna. Before the meeting, there was speculation that OPEC countries might cut their own oil production to support prices.In that convention, some countries, such as Venezuela and Iran, wanted the cartels, mainly Saudi Arabia, to cut production to support oil prices. The reason is that these countries need high prices to break even budgetarily and cover their accumulated government spending.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4238877c035f8d5135d04d76488675f\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the other end of the debate is Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, which opposes production cuts and is willing to let oil prices continue to fall.In the end, OPEC was unable to agree on prices and left production unchanged.Subsequently, crude oil prices plummeted rapidly, with Brent crude oil prices falling directly from US $110/barrel to US $70/barrel.During the previous period from 2011 to 2014, due to the surge in demand, oil prices once hovered around US $100/barrel.Of course, the drop in crude oil prices in 2014 was also inseparable from the increase in U.S. shale oil production. Some analysts said that as U.S. shale oil production increases, the strategy of maintaining production aims to maintain OPEC's market dominance.Therefore, maintaining production is also OPEC's last resort decision. And as oil prices fall, shale oil production becomes less economical, which will also allow the United States to reduce the supply of shale oil. So keeping oil prices low might actually make sense for OPEC.The United States at that time was similar to Iran at present-as the biggest uncertain party in crude oil supply, their participation will also put greater downward pressure on the crumbling crude oil price in possible scenarios.","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the 2014 oil price \"massacre\" repeat itself? It's getting more and more likely</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the 2014 oil price \"massacre\" repeat itself? It's getting more and more likely\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-07-05 20:50\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nAuthor: Yu XudongAs OPEC + failed to reach an agreement on increasing production, this once again tightened the nerves of the already nervous market.On Friday, OPEC failed to break the deadlock within the organization for the second consecutive night. Delegates said that although most OPEC members supported the proposal to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day per month between August and December, it would also increase the broader The supply agreement is extended until the end of 2022, but the UAE remains firmly opposed. As the UAE still blocks the proposal to increase supply from being adopted, the parties will continue negotiations at 3pm local time in Vienna on July 5th (9pm Beijing time).Just two days after the UAE refused to align with other OPEC members, Saudi Prince Abdul Aziz said in a Bloomberg TV interview late on Sunday that they must extend the production increase agreement, adding that the UAE has been isolated in OPEC. The Saudi prince's speech reflected the current tense situation within OPEC + and made it difficult for global markets to guess the future trend of crude oil prices.Just hours ago, UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei once again rejected Saudi Arabia's proposed extension of the agreement and only supported increasing production in the short term. He has previously said that the UAE supports an unconditional increase in production, which is needed by the market, but the decision to extend the agreement until the end of 2022 is not necessary now.It is worth noting that, according to Bloomberg, Foreign Minister Prince Abdul Aziz said that if the agreement is not extended, a back-up agreement will be reached, under which oil production will not increase in August and the rest of the year, which could cause oil prices to soar.At the heart of the problem is the baseline. Production cuts or increases are measured against a benchmark-the higher this benchmark figure, the more oil a country is allowed to extract. The UAE wants to revise its benchmark before extending the cuts until the end of 2022 as it wants to produce more oil on top of its current benchmark quota.The UAE's current benchmark is calculated from October 2018, when production was around 3.2 million barrels per day. Last year, that jumped to 3.8 million barrels per day. The UAE believes that the reference frame for the 2022 extension should not have started four years ago.However, such a calculation is unlikely to be acceptable to Saudi Arabia and Russia, which refuse to recalculate the UAE's production target baseline and fear that concessions to one member will prompt everyone else in OPEC + to demand the same treatment, thereby undermining the already underway. Weeks of agreement negotiations.Two outcomes: oil prices surge or complete collapseJust like the differences within OPEC +, analysts from major institutions also have great differences on the future trend of international oil prices. This is mainly because the factors affecting the current oil price are indeed complicated.On the one hand, the economic recovery of major economies, including the United States, is obvious, the demand side of the oil market is constantly improving, and OPEC + has maintained a trend of cautious production increase recently; On the other hand, Novel Coronavirus's mutant virus has begun to wreak havoc in some areas again, the job market in the United States and Europe is recovering slowly, and once the U.S. sanctions on Iran are lifted, Iran's oil production capacity will be greatly released, etc. These factors have inhibited the rise of international oil prices to a considerable extent. International oil prices are at a crossroads.Data show that the international benchmark Brent crude oil futures were quoted at US $76.37 per barrel on Monday (July 5), rising more than 45% in the first half of this year; U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures closed at $75.27, up more than 50% in the first half of this year. Throughout June, Brent crude oil futures rose more than 8% and WTI crude oil prices rose more than 10% to their highest level since October 2018.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e815454f7911baf0e973046b08481a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although oil prices are still soaring in the trend, some analysts pointed out that the factors affecting the next oil price trend may be binary.On the one hand, the UAE is forcing OPEC + into trouble-OPEC + will either accept the UAE's demands, or the risk of dissolving the cartel will occur without a production agreement.If the former happens, oil prices will most likely rise sharply; If the latter happens, as Bloomberg said in an article, there will be a more dramatic situation-the oil price collapse on Thanksgiving Day in 2014 will be repeated, because OPEC + will be at risk of complete collapse, that is, all parties are fighting each other, and they can no longer form a united cartel, which leads to the oil price plummeting again since last year's crisis, and the nightmare repeats itself.In the last year, it was the disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia that triggered a punitive price war that triggered the panic in March 2020.It is worth mentioning that when asked if production could be increased without the involvement of the UAE, Abdulaziz said they cannot, and if OPEC collapses, every oil exporter will fight for itself, and after a brief price spike, oil will plummet again.Abdulaziz's words also confirm that if the agreement goes bankrupt, there is a high probability that it will slip into the second situation.At the same time, there is another potential event that will lead to more flooding of oil supplies, which will also knock oil prices down: once Iran reaches a nuclear deal with the Biden administration, it will return to the oil market, adding millions of barrels of oil supplies.Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at Royal Bank of Canada, said a price war could be looming if the talks stalled, and if the talks end in complete discord, there is a risk of returning to a production situation for everyone for themselves, which could lead to oil price gains this year. A reversal of the trend. While they don't think this is the final possible outcome, they can't completely ignore it.According to CNBC, Alejandro Barbajosa, Argus Media's vice president of crude oil business in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific region, said on Monday that in the very short term, the failure to reach an agreement obviously means that crude oil production will be very loose, and every country is very close to a price war. But he believes that OPEC + members will not reach the level of a real price war.There was an oil price massacre in 2014On Thanksgiving Day in 2014, a similar incident happened: OPEC's negotiations on production cuts broke down, but in the end the parties failed to reach an agreement, resulting in countries fighting independently on oil production, and then crude oil prices fell off a cliff.On November 27th, 2014, OPEC, a cartel of oil producers including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela, held a large meeting in Vienna. Before the meeting, there was speculation that OPEC countries might cut their own oil production to support prices.In that convention, some countries, such as Venezuela and Iran, wanted the cartels, mainly Saudi Arabia, to cut production to support oil prices. The reason is that these countries need high prices to break even budgetarily and cover their accumulated government spending.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4238877c035f8d5135d04d76488675f\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">On the other end of the debate is Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, which opposes production cuts and is willing to let oil prices continue to fall.In the end, OPEC was unable to agree on prices and left production unchanged.Subsequently, crude oil prices plummeted rapidly, with Brent crude oil prices falling directly from US $110/barrel to US $70/barrel.During the previous period from 2011 to 2014, due to the surge in demand, oil prices once hovered around US $100/barrel.Of course, the drop in crude oil prices in 2014 was also inseparable from the increase in U.S. shale oil production. Some analysts said that as U.S. shale oil production increases, the strategy of maintaining production aims to maintain OPEC's market dominance.Therefore, maintaining production is also OPEC's last resort decision. And as oil prices fall, shale oil production becomes less economical, which will also allow the United States to reduce the supply of shale oil. So keeping oil prices low might actually make sense for OPEC.The United States at that time was similar to Iran at present-as the biggest uncertain party in crude oil supply, their participation will also put greater downward pressure on the crumbling crude oil price in possible scenarios.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634608\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4a2187b267c2b09c55779e0a8af4ab","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634608","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1157720359","content_text":"作者：于旭东\n由于OPEC+未能就提高产量达成一致，这让本就紧张不已的市场，再次绷紧了神经。\n在上周五，OPEC+连续第二晚没有打破该组织内部的僵局，与会代表称，虽然多数OPEC +成员支持8月至12月期间每月增加40万桶/天产量的提议，同时将更广泛的供应协议期限延长至2022年底，但阿联酋仍坚决反对。因阿联酋依然阻止增加供应的提议通过,各方将于维也纳当地时间7月5日下午3点（北京时间晚上9点）继续谈判。\n就在阿联酋拒绝与OPEC+其他成员国保持一致的两天后，在周日晚些时候，沙特王子阿卜杜勒·阿齐兹在接受彭博电视采访时表示他们必须延长增产协议，并补充说阿联酋已经在OPEC+中被孤立。沙特王子的讲话，反映出目前OPEC+内部紧张的局势，并让全球市场难以猜测原油价格的未来走势。\n就在几个小时前，阿联酋能源部长Suhail al-Mazrouei再次拒绝了沙特提议的延长协议，只支持在短期增加产量。他在此前曾表示阿联酋支持无条件增加产量，这是市场需要的，但将协议延长至2022年底的决定并没有必要在现在采取。\n值得注意的是，据彭博，社特外交大臣阿卜杜勒·阿齐兹亲王表示，如果不延长协议，将达成一项后备协议，根据该协议，8月和今年剩余时间的石油产量不会增加，这可能会导致油价飙升。\n问题的核心是基线。减产或增产是根据一个基准来衡量的——这个基准数字越高，一个国家被允许开采的石油就越多。阿联酋希望在将削减延长至2022年底之前修改其基准，因为它想要在当前基准配额的基础上生产更多的石油。\n阿联酋目前的基准是从2018年10月开始计算的，当时的产量约为320万桶/天。去年，这一数字跃升至380万桶/天。阿联酋认为，2022年延期的参考框架不应该从四年前开始。\n然而，这样的计算方法对沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯来说是不可能接受的，它们拒绝重新计算阿联酋的产量目标基线，并担心向一个成员让步会促使OPEC+中的其他所有人要求同样的待遇，从而破坏已经进行了数周的协议谈判。\n两种结局：油价大涨或完全崩溃\n正像OPEC+内部的分歧一样，各大机构的分析师对于国际石油价格的未来走势也存在很大分歧。这主要是因为影响当前石油价格的因素确实纷繁复杂。\n一方面，包括美国在内的各主要经济体的经济复苏明显，石油市场的需求端在不断改善，近期OPEC+也一直维持着谨慎增产的态势；另一方面，新冠病毒的变异病毒又开始在一些地区肆虐，美欧的就业市场恢复缓慢，美国对伊朗的制裁一旦解除则伊朗的石油产能必将大幅释放等等，这些因素又在相当的程度上抑制了国际石油价格的上涨。国际石油价格站在了十字路口上。\n数据显示，国际基准布伦特原油期货周一（7月5日）报76.37美元/桶，今年上半年涨超45%；美国西德克萨斯中质（WTI）原油期货收报75.27美元，今年上半年涨超50%。整个6月，布伦特原油期货价格上涨逾8%，WTI原油价格上涨逾10%，达到2018年10月以来的最高水平。\n\n尽管油价在趋势上依然飙升，但有分析人士指出，接下来油价走势的影响因素可能是二元的。\n一方面，阿联酋正在迫使OPEC+陷入困境——OPEC+要么接受阿联酋的要求，要么在没有达成产量协议的情况下会发生解散卡特尔的风险。\n如果前者发生，油价大概率将会大涨；而后者发生的话，正如彭博在一篇文章里所说的，将会有一种更戏剧性的情况发生——2014年感恩节的油价崩溃将重新上演，因为OPEC+会有完全崩溃的风险，也就是各方各自混战，再也无法形成团结的卡特尔，并导致油价继去年的危机以来再次暴跌，噩梦再次重演。\n在去年，正是沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯之间的分歧引发了一场惩罚性的价格战，这才引发了2020年3月的恐慌。\n值得一提的是，当被问及是否可以在没有阿联酋参与的情况下提高产量时，阿卜杜勒阿齐兹表示他们不能，如果欧佩克崩溃，每个石油出口国都会为自己而战，在短暂的价格飙升之后，石油将再次暴跌。\n而阿卜杜勒阿齐兹的话，也印证了若协议破产，大概率会滑向第二种情况。\n与此同时，还有一个潜在事件会导致石油供应更加泛滥，这也将重挫油价：一旦伊朗与拜登政府达成核协议，就会重返石油市场，从而增加数百万桶石油的供应。\n加拿大皇家银行全球大宗商品策略主管Helima Croft表示，如果谈判陷入僵局，一场价格战可能迫在眉睫，如果谈判以完全的不和谐结束，就有可能回到人人为己的生产局面，这可能导致今年油价涨势的逆转。虽然他们不认为这是最后的可能结果，但也不能完全忽视它。\n据CNBC，阿格斯媒体负责中东和亚太地区原油业务的副总裁Alejandro Barbajosa周一表示，在非常短期内，协议无法达成显然意味着原油的生产会非常宽松，每个国家都非常接近价格战，但他认为OPEC+成员国不会达到真正价格战的水平。\n2014年曾发生过油价大屠杀\n在2014年的感恩节，发生过一件类似的事：OPEC关于减产的谈判发生破裂，但最终各方并未达成一致，导致各国在石油产量上各自为战，随后原油价格断崖式下跌。\n2014年11月27日，包括沙特、伊朗、伊拉克和委内瑞拉在内的石油生产国组成的卡特尔——OPEC在维也纳举行了一次大型会议。会议之前，有人猜测欧佩克国家可能会削减自己的石油产量以支撑价格。\n在那次大会中，委内瑞拉和伊朗等一些国家希望卡特尔（主要是沙特阿拉伯）削减产量以支撑石油价格。原因是这些国家需要高价才能在预算上达到收支平衡并支付他们累积的政府支出。\n\n争论的另一端是全球最大的产油国沙特阿拉伯，该国反对减产，并愿意让油价继续下跌。\n最终，OPEC无法就价格达成一致，并维持产量不变。\n随后，原油价格迅速暴跌，布伦特原油价格直接从110美元/桶跌至70美元/桶。\n而在此前的2011年至2014年期间，由于需求的激增，油价曾一度徘徊在100美元/桶左右。\n当然，2014年的那次原油价格下挫，和美国页岩油产量的增加也脱不了干系。有分析师表示，在美国页岩油产量增加的情况下，维持产量的策略旨在保持OPEC的市场主导地位。\n因此，维持产量也是OPEC不得已的决定。并且随着油价下跌，页岩油的生产也变得不那么经济了，这也将让美国减少页岩油的供应。因此，保持低油价实际上对欧佩克来说可能是有意义的。\n而当年的美国，也和目前的伊朗相似——作为原油供给最大的不确定方，它们的加入也将让可能情境下摇摇欲坠的原油价格承受更大的下跌压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":24,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1157720359","isCrawlerRequest":true}