Will Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?

Seeking Alpha2023-02-21

SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe....

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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

SNeo
2023-02-22
SNeo
[OK]
runningjames
2023-02-22
runningjames
Sure
Andrewinho
2023-02-22
Andrewinho
🤔🤔🤔
SimonTan91
2023-02-22
SimonTan91
Ok
ArcherWG
2023-02-22
ArcherWG
Noted
Vincentan59
2023-02-22
Vincentan59
🥹😱😱😱🙈

Leave a comment

466

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-21 22:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"09988","symbol_name":"阿里巴巴-W","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again","article_id":"1160776999","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"seekingalpha_fund","url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160776999","pubTimestamp":1676989264,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"seekingalpha_fund","name":"Seeking Alpha"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"translate_title":"阿里巴巴-SW的收益会再次令人惊讶吗？","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9},"content_text":"SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe.Article ThesisWhen Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA)(OTCPK:BABAF) reported its last quarterly results, the company beat estimates easily. Since Alibaba will report its next quarterly results this week, we'll take a look at what investors can expect from thereport and at some items that will be important going forward.What Can We Expect From BABA's Results?Alibaba Group Holding Limited will report its next quarterly results on Thursday, February 23. Analysts are currently predicting that the company will report the following results for the quarter:Seeking AlphaBoth the earnings per share estimate and the revenue estimate represent a big increase versus the results that Alibaba reported for the previous quarter, its fiscal Q2. This can be explained by two factors. First, China started to reopen its economy during the most recent quarter. While the country had been following a Zero COVID approach for sometime, that changed towards the end of the calendar year 2022. China's economic reopening has led to improving consumer sentiment, as consumers are willing to spend more when they aren't locked down and uncertain about their economic future. Business customers also are more active following China's reopening, thus activity increased in that segment as well.On top of that, there also is a seasonal impact at play, however. The fiscal third quarter almost always is a more active one compared to the fiscal second quarter for Alibaba due to the holiday impact (even though the Chinese New Year is in January or February). The 11/11 day, or Single's Day, plays a role in the fiscal third quarter being a stronger-than-average year for Alibaba and many other Chinese consumer companies. An improvement in BABA's sales from the fiscal second quarter to the fiscal third quarter would thus be expected even without the COVID policy change tailwind, but the positive impact of China's reopening will likely translate into a more pronounced quarter-to-quarter growth rate.Not surprisingly, the earnings per share estimate implies a considerable earnings improvement on a sequential basis as well. With rising revenues, profits are rising, all else equal. Due to the impact of operating leverage -- operating expenses are generally growing slower than revenues and gross profits -- earnings growth could be more pronounced than the company's sales growth. That is also what analysts are predicting, as the forecasted earnings per share increase of 35% is significantly larger than the forecasted revenue increase of 24%. It is likely that Alibaba's buybacks play a role here as well. The company is currently buying back shares under its $25 billion buyback authorization, thus a decline in the company's share count, both on a year-over-year basis as well as on a sequential basis, should positively impact Alibaba's earnings per share growth rate.The expected earnings per share of $2.44 for the quarter imply that Alibaba will earn $7.75 during the current year when we also factor in the current consensus estimate for Alibaba's fiscal fourth quarter (the one we are in right now). Of course, it would not be too surprising to see Alibaba outperform expectations, as that would be very much in line with the recent performance. Or, in other words, Wall Street analysts have a pretty clear track record of underestimating Alibaba, at least in the recent past:Seeking AlphaOver the last four quarters, Alibaba has beaten earnings per share estimates every single time. On average, the company beat estimates by $0.16, which is pretty meaningful. If the company were to beat estimates for the third quarter and the fourth quarter by a similar amount, actual earnings per share would come in around $8.10 for the current year, significantly above what analysts are predicting right now. This is, of course, not guaranteed, but I believe that an earnings beat is more likely than an earnings miss.When it comes to Alibaba's operational results, there's a couple of noteworthy items investors should account for when assessingAlibaba'sbusiness results. The first one of these isAlibaba'scustomer count growth. While Alibaba already has a large share of the addressable market in its home country, its growth potential in foreign markets is more pronounced. Ongoing growth in the number of users across Alibaba's platforms would be a good sign for BABA's longer-term international growth potential.Second, BABA's cloud growth performance is an important metric. China's cloud computing market is not as developed as that of the US or Europe, but BABA is one of the leading Chinese cloud players. During the most recent quarter, Alibaba's cloud computing revenue, including Alibaba Cloud and DingTalk, totaled $2.9 billion once inter-segment revenues are eliminated. That was up just 4% year over year, which was weaker compared to what many investors had expected. As BABA's cloud computing business is seen as an important growth driver going forward, an improvement in the sales growth rate for the unit would be a good sign. Since business customers likely have become less defensive during the fiscal third quarter as China started to reopen its economy, I believe that an improvement in the growth rate is likely, although not guaranteed. If BABA's cloud revenue growth rate remained weak during the quarter, that would be a bad sign for the company and its stock, as it would hurt one argument of the bull thesis. If cloud revenue growth improved, that would be a major positive, however. This would align with the belief that BABA's cloud business will eventually become a major growth driver for shareholder value -- potentially similar to what AWS has done for Amazon (AMZN), with the added benefit that BABA's core retail business is pretty profitable, which does not hold true for Amazon.When it comes to BABA's margin performance, the recent past has been positive. During the fiscal second quarter, Alibaba grew its adjusted EBITDA by 24%, relative to the previous year's quarter, which was the result of more cost-cutting efforts, as revenue had grown significantly less than 24% over the same time frame. Alibaba has brought down non-core spending in the recent past, which had a positive impact on profitability. It is likely that this trend persisted through the fiscal third quarter, which is why an improvement in BABA's bottom line during the quarter is likely, relative to one year earlier. Investors should be happy about this trend, of course, as improving margins mean that BABA could be able to grow its profit faster than its revenue. Since earnings, or earnings per share, ultimately impact a stock's price (at constant valuations, at least), earnings per share growth is one of the most important metrics for investors.Macro, Risks, And Final ThoughtsWith China's economic reopening, the macro picture for consumer spending in the country looks positive. At the same time, however, tensions exist between China and the US. Very recently, the US warned that China might provide more active support to Russia when it comes to the ongoing war in Ukraine. If that happens, tensions between the US and China could rise further, which could be a reason for US-based investors to sell shares of BABA, which could cause a declining share price. Tensions due to the brewing Taiwan conflict are another macro risk that should be considered by Alibaba's shareholders.Alibaba has seen its share price benefit from the fact that regulation seems to be a declining risk factor for BABA, although it still remains an issue investors should keep an eye on. Chinese regulators have recently allowed a capital increase for Ant Group, in which BABA owns a large position. This suggests that regulators have become less harsh when it comes to Ant Group, which, in turn, could be beneficial for BABA, where regulation has been a concern (and a bear argument) as well. While this risk has not vanished, it's good to see that things are seemingly moving in the right direction.To sum things up, Alibaba is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing economic reopening in its most important market, and recent margin improvement initiatives have been paying off. BABA has a good chance of beating earnings estimates when it reports later this week, I believe. At current prices, BABA is trading for around 12x to 13x this year's expected net profit, while the earnings multiple based on next year's expected earnings per share is just 11. That upcoming fiscal year will start in April, or just above 2 months from now. While the risk factors have not ceased to exist, the regulatory risk has gotten less severe, I believe, and the low valuation could result in significant upside potential for BABA in the longer run.This article is written by Jonathan Weber for reference only. Please note the risks.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":9957325705,"gmtCreate":1677028728007,"gmtModify":1677028732446,"author":{"id":"4112071922817752","authorId":"4112071922817752","name":"SNeo","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d5b48d982c4246e1c1d0400e42ad5e32","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4112071922817752","authorIdStr":"4112071922817752"},"htmlText":"[OK]&nbsp;","listText":"[OK]&nbsp;","text":"[OK]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957325705","repostId":1160776999,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160776999","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1676989264,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160776999?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-21 22:21","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Will Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160776999","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings ","content":"<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-21 22:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160776999","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe.Article ThesisWhen Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA)(OTCPK:BABAF) reported its last quarterly results, the company beat estimates easily. Since Alibaba will report its next quarterly results this week, we'll take a look at what investors can expect from thereport and at some items that will be important going forward.What Can We Expect From BABA's Results?Alibaba Group Holding Limited will report its next quarterly results on Thursday, February 23. Analysts are currently predicting that the company will report the following results for the quarter:Seeking AlphaBoth the earnings per share estimate and the revenue estimate represent a big increase versus the results that Alibaba reported for the previous quarter, its fiscal Q2. This can be explained by two factors. First, China started to reopen its economy during the most recent quarter. While the country had been following a Zero COVID approach for sometime, that changed towards the end of the calendar year 2022. China's economic reopening has led to improving consumer sentiment, as consumers are willing to spend more when they aren't locked down and uncertain about their economic future. Business customers also are more active following China's reopening, thus activity increased in that segment as well.On top of that, there also is a seasonal impact at play, however. The fiscal third quarter almost always is a more active one compared to the fiscal second quarter for Alibaba due to the holiday impact (even though the Chinese New Year is in January or February). The 11/11 day, or Single's Day, plays a role in the fiscal third quarter being a stronger-than-average year for Alibaba and many other Chinese consumer companies. An improvement in BABA's sales from the fiscal second quarter to the fiscal third quarter would thus be expected even without the COVID policy change tailwind, but the positive impact of China's reopening will likely translate into a more pronounced quarter-to-quarter growth rate.Not surprisingly, the earnings per share estimate implies a considerable earnings improvement on a sequential basis as well. With rising revenues, profits are rising, all else equal. Due to the impact of operating leverage -- operating expenses are generally growing slower than revenues and gross profits -- earnings growth could be more pronounced than the company's sales growth. That is also what analysts are predicting, as the forecasted earnings per share increase of 35% is significantly larger than the forecasted revenue increase of 24%. It is likely that Alibaba's buybacks play a role here as well. The company is currently buying back shares under its $25 billion buyback authorization, thus a decline in the company's share count, both on a year-over-year basis as well as on a sequential basis, should positively impact Alibaba's earnings per share growth rate.The expected earnings per share of $2.44 for the quarter imply that Alibaba will earn $7.75 during the current year when we also factor in the current consensus estimate for Alibaba's fiscal fourth quarter (the one we are in right now). Of course, it would not be too surprising to see Alibaba outperform expectations, as that would be very much in line with the recent performance. Or, in other words, Wall Street analysts have a pretty clear track record of underestimating Alibaba, at least in the recent past:Seeking AlphaOver the last four quarters, Alibaba has beaten earnings per share estimates every single time. On average, the company beat estimates by $0.16, which is pretty meaningful. If the company were to beat estimates for the third quarter and the fourth quarter by a similar amount, actual earnings per share would come in around $8.10 for the current year, significantly above what analysts are predicting right now. This is, of course, not guaranteed, but I believe that an earnings beat is more likely than an earnings miss.When it comes to Alibaba's operational results, there's a couple of noteworthy items investors should account for when assessingAlibaba'sbusiness results. The first one of these isAlibaba'scustomer count growth. While Alibaba already has a large share of the addressable market in its home country, its growth potential in foreign markets is more pronounced. Ongoing growth in the number of users across Alibaba's platforms would be a good sign for BABA's longer-term international growth potential.Second, BABA's cloud growth performance is an important metric. China's cloud computing market is not as developed as that of the US or Europe, but BABA is one of the leading Chinese cloud players. During the most recent quarter, Alibaba's cloud computing revenue, including Alibaba Cloud and DingTalk, totaled $2.9 billion once inter-segment revenues are eliminated. That was up just 4% year over year, which was weaker compared to what many investors had expected. As BABA's cloud computing business is seen as an important growth driver going forward, an improvement in the sales growth rate for the unit would be a good sign. Since business customers likely have become less defensive during the fiscal third quarter as China started to reopen its economy, I believe that an improvement in the growth rate is likely, although not guaranteed. If BABA's cloud revenue growth rate remained weak during the quarter, that would be a bad sign for the company and its stock, as it would hurt one argument of the bull thesis. If cloud revenue growth improved, that would be a major positive, however. This would align with the belief that BABA's cloud business will eventually become a major growth driver for shareholder value -- potentially similar to what AWS has done for Amazon (AMZN), with the added benefit that BABA's core retail business is pretty profitable, which does not hold true for Amazon.When it comes to BABA's margin performance, the recent past has been positive. During the fiscal second quarter, Alibaba grew its adjusted EBITDA by 24%, relative to the previous year's quarter, which was the result of more cost-cutting efforts, as revenue had grown significantly less than 24% over the same time frame. Alibaba has brought down non-core spending in the recent past, which had a positive impact on profitability. It is likely that this trend persisted through the fiscal third quarter, which is why an improvement in BABA's bottom line during the quarter is likely, relative to one year earlier. Investors should be happy about this trend, of course, as improving margins mean that BABA could be able to grow its profit faster than its revenue. Since earnings, or earnings per share, ultimately impact a stock's price (at constant valuations, at least), earnings per share growth is one of the most important metrics for investors.Macro, Risks, And Final ThoughtsWith China's economic reopening, the macro picture for consumer spending in the country looks positive. At the same time, however, tensions exist between China and the US. Very recently, the US warned that China might provide more active support to Russia when it comes to the ongoing war in Ukraine. If that happens, tensions between the US and China could rise further, which could be a reason for US-based investors to sell shares of BABA, which could cause a declining share price. Tensions due to the brewing Taiwan conflict are another macro risk that should be considered by Alibaba's shareholders.Alibaba has seen its share price benefit from the fact that regulation seems to be a declining risk factor for BABA, although it still remains an issue investors should keep an eye on. Chinese regulators have recently allowed a capital increase for Ant Group, in which BABA owns a large position. This suggests that regulators have become less harsh when it comes to Ant Group, which, in turn, could be beneficial for BABA, where regulation has been a concern (and a bear argument) as well. While this risk has not vanished, it's good to see that things are seemingly moving in the right direction.To sum things up, Alibaba is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing economic reopening in its most important market, and recent margin improvement initiatives have been paying off. BABA has a good chance of beating earnings estimates when it reports later this week, I believe. At current prices, BABA is trading for around 12x to 13x this year's expected net profit, while the earnings multiple based on next year's expected earnings per share is just 11. That upcoming fiscal year will start in April, or just above 2 months from now. While the risk factors have not ceased to exist, the regulatory risk has gotten less severe, I believe, and the low valuation could result in significant upside potential for BABA in the longer run.This article is written by Jonathan Weber for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9957365861,"gmtCreate":1677022799953,"gmtModify":1677022804503,"author":{"id":"4117336023184202","authorId":"4117336023184202","name":"runningjames","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3467c93ce8ec8c583f28f405e68f0c00","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4117336023184202","authorIdStr":"4117336023184202"},"htmlText":"Sure","listText":"Sure","text":"Sure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957365861","repostId":1160776999,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160776999","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1676989264,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160776999?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-21 22:21","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Will Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160776999","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings ","content":"<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-21 22:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160776999","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe.Article ThesisWhen Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA)(OTCPK:BABAF) reported its last quarterly results, the company beat estimates easily. Since Alibaba will report its next quarterly results this week, we'll take a look at what investors can expect from thereport and at some items that will be important going forward.What Can We Expect From BABA's Results?Alibaba Group Holding Limited will report its next quarterly results on Thursday, February 23. Analysts are currently predicting that the company will report the following results for the quarter:Seeking AlphaBoth the earnings per share estimate and the revenue estimate represent a big increase versus the results that Alibaba reported for the previous quarter, its fiscal Q2. This can be explained by two factors. First, China started to reopen its economy during the most recent quarter. While the country had been following a Zero COVID approach for sometime, that changed towards the end of the calendar year 2022. China's economic reopening has led to improving consumer sentiment, as consumers are willing to spend more when they aren't locked down and uncertain about their economic future. Business customers also are more active following China's reopening, thus activity increased in that segment as well.On top of that, there also is a seasonal impact at play, however. The fiscal third quarter almost always is a more active one compared to the fiscal second quarter for Alibaba due to the holiday impact (even though the Chinese New Year is in January or February). The 11/11 day, or Single's Day, plays a role in the fiscal third quarter being a stronger-than-average year for Alibaba and many other Chinese consumer companies. An improvement in BABA's sales from the fiscal second quarter to the fiscal third quarter would thus be expected even without the COVID policy change tailwind, but the positive impact of China's reopening will likely translate into a more pronounced quarter-to-quarter growth rate.Not surprisingly, the earnings per share estimate implies a considerable earnings improvement on a sequential basis as well. With rising revenues, profits are rising, all else equal. Due to the impact of operating leverage -- operating expenses are generally growing slower than revenues and gross profits -- earnings growth could be more pronounced than the company's sales growth. That is also what analysts are predicting, as the forecasted earnings per share increase of 35% is significantly larger than the forecasted revenue increase of 24%. It is likely that Alibaba's buybacks play a role here as well. The company is currently buying back shares under its $25 billion buyback authorization, thus a decline in the company's share count, both on a year-over-year basis as well as on a sequential basis, should positively impact Alibaba's earnings per share growth rate.The expected earnings per share of $2.44 for the quarter imply that Alibaba will earn $7.75 during the current year when we also factor in the current consensus estimate for Alibaba's fiscal fourth quarter (the one we are in right now). Of course, it would not be too surprising to see Alibaba outperform expectations, as that would be very much in line with the recent performance. Or, in other words, Wall Street analysts have a pretty clear track record of underestimating Alibaba, at least in the recent past:Seeking AlphaOver the last four quarters, Alibaba has beaten earnings per share estimates every single time. On average, the company beat estimates by $0.16, which is pretty meaningful. If the company were to beat estimates for the third quarter and the fourth quarter by a similar amount, actual earnings per share would come in around $8.10 for the current year, significantly above what analysts are predicting right now. This is, of course, not guaranteed, but I believe that an earnings beat is more likely than an earnings miss.When it comes to Alibaba's operational results, there's a couple of noteworthy items investors should account for when assessingAlibaba'sbusiness results. The first one of these isAlibaba'scustomer count growth. While Alibaba already has a large share of the addressable market in its home country, its growth potential in foreign markets is more pronounced. Ongoing growth in the number of users across Alibaba's platforms would be a good sign for BABA's longer-term international growth potential.Second, BABA's cloud growth performance is an important metric. China's cloud computing market is not as developed as that of the US or Europe, but BABA is one of the leading Chinese cloud players. During the most recent quarter, Alibaba's cloud computing revenue, including Alibaba Cloud and DingTalk, totaled $2.9 billion once inter-segment revenues are eliminated. That was up just 4% year over year, which was weaker compared to what many investors had expected. As BABA's cloud computing business is seen as an important growth driver going forward, an improvement in the sales growth rate for the unit would be a good sign. Since business customers likely have become less defensive during the fiscal third quarter as China started to reopen its economy, I believe that an improvement in the growth rate is likely, although not guaranteed. If BABA's cloud revenue growth rate remained weak during the quarter, that would be a bad sign for the company and its stock, as it would hurt one argument of the bull thesis. If cloud revenue growth improved, that would be a major positive, however. This would align with the belief that BABA's cloud business will eventually become a major growth driver for shareholder value -- potentially similar to what AWS has done for Amazon (AMZN), with the added benefit that BABA's core retail business is pretty profitable, which does not hold true for Amazon.When it comes to BABA's margin performance, the recent past has been positive. During the fiscal second quarter, Alibaba grew its adjusted EBITDA by 24%, relative to the previous year's quarter, which was the result of more cost-cutting efforts, as revenue had grown significantly less than 24% over the same time frame. Alibaba has brought down non-core spending in the recent past, which had a positive impact on profitability. It is likely that this trend persisted through the fiscal third quarter, which is why an improvement in BABA's bottom line during the quarter is likely, relative to one year earlier. Investors should be happy about this trend, of course, as improving margins mean that BABA could be able to grow its profit faster than its revenue. Since earnings, or earnings per share, ultimately impact a stock's price (at constant valuations, at least), earnings per share growth is one of the most important metrics for investors.Macro, Risks, And Final ThoughtsWith China's economic reopening, the macro picture for consumer spending in the country looks positive. At the same time, however, tensions exist between China and the US. Very recently, the US warned that China might provide more active support to Russia when it comes to the ongoing war in Ukraine. If that happens, tensions between the US and China could rise further, which could be a reason for US-based investors to sell shares of BABA, which could cause a declining share price. Tensions due to the brewing Taiwan conflict are another macro risk that should be considered by Alibaba's shareholders.Alibaba has seen its share price benefit from the fact that regulation seems to be a declining risk factor for BABA, although it still remains an issue investors should keep an eye on. Chinese regulators have recently allowed a capital increase for Ant Group, in which BABA owns a large position. This suggests that regulators have become less harsh when it comes to Ant Group, which, in turn, could be beneficial for BABA, where regulation has been a concern (and a bear argument) as well. While this risk has not vanished, it's good to see that things are seemingly moving in the right direction.To sum things up, Alibaba is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing economic reopening in its most important market, and recent margin improvement initiatives have been paying off. BABA has a good chance of beating earnings estimates when it reports later this week, I believe. At current prices, BABA is trading for around 12x to 13x this year's expected net profit, while the earnings multiple based on next year's expected earnings per share is just 11. That upcoming fiscal year will start in April, or just above 2 months from now. While the risk factors have not ceased to exist, the regulatory risk has gotten less severe, I believe, and the low valuation could result in significant upside potential for BABA in the longer run.This article is written by Jonathan Weber for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9957361296,"gmtCreate":1677019812016,"gmtModify":1677019816869,"author":{"id":"3581563418944392","authorId":"3581563418944392","name":"Andrewinho","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3127e2bc40ab23064a5187a00a63e19b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581563418944392","authorIdStr":"3581563418944392"},"htmlText":"🤔🤔🤔","listText":"🤔🤔🤔","text":"🤔🤔🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957361296","repostId":1160776999,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160776999","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1676989264,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160776999?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-21 22:21","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Will Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160776999","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings ","content":"<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-21 22:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160776999","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe.Article ThesisWhen Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA)(OTCPK:BABAF) reported its last quarterly results, the company beat estimates easily. Since Alibaba will report its next quarterly results this week, we'll take a look at what investors can expect from thereport and at some items that will be important going forward.What Can We Expect From BABA's Results?Alibaba Group Holding Limited will report its next quarterly results on Thursday, February 23. Analysts are currently predicting that the company will report the following results for the quarter:Seeking AlphaBoth the earnings per share estimate and the revenue estimate represent a big increase versus the results that Alibaba reported for the previous quarter, its fiscal Q2. This can be explained by two factors. First, China started to reopen its economy during the most recent quarter. While the country had been following a Zero COVID approach for sometime, that changed towards the end of the calendar year 2022. China's economic reopening has led to improving consumer sentiment, as consumers are willing to spend more when they aren't locked down and uncertain about their economic future. Business customers also are more active following China's reopening, thus activity increased in that segment as well.On top of that, there also is a seasonal impact at play, however. The fiscal third quarter almost always is a more active one compared to the fiscal second quarter for Alibaba due to the holiday impact (even though the Chinese New Year is in January or February). The 11/11 day, or Single's Day, plays a role in the fiscal third quarter being a stronger-than-average year for Alibaba and many other Chinese consumer companies. An improvement in BABA's sales from the fiscal second quarter to the fiscal third quarter would thus be expected even without the COVID policy change tailwind, but the positive impact of China's reopening will likely translate into a more pronounced quarter-to-quarter growth rate.Not surprisingly, the earnings per share estimate implies a considerable earnings improvement on a sequential basis as well. With rising revenues, profits are rising, all else equal. Due to the impact of operating leverage -- operating expenses are generally growing slower than revenues and gross profits -- earnings growth could be more pronounced than the company's sales growth. That is also what analysts are predicting, as the forecasted earnings per share increase of 35% is significantly larger than the forecasted revenue increase of 24%. It is likely that Alibaba's buybacks play a role here as well. The company is currently buying back shares under its $25 billion buyback authorization, thus a decline in the company's share count, both on a year-over-year basis as well as on a sequential basis, should positively impact Alibaba's earnings per share growth rate.The expected earnings per share of $2.44 for the quarter imply that Alibaba will earn $7.75 during the current year when we also factor in the current consensus estimate for Alibaba's fiscal fourth quarter (the one we are in right now). Of course, it would not be too surprising to see Alibaba outperform expectations, as that would be very much in line with the recent performance. Or, in other words, Wall Street analysts have a pretty clear track record of underestimating Alibaba, at least in the recent past:Seeking AlphaOver the last four quarters, Alibaba has beaten earnings per share estimates every single time. On average, the company beat estimates by $0.16, which is pretty meaningful. If the company were to beat estimates for the third quarter and the fourth quarter by a similar amount, actual earnings per share would come in around $8.10 for the current year, significantly above what analysts are predicting right now. This is, of course, not guaranteed, but I believe that an earnings beat is more likely than an earnings miss.When it comes to Alibaba's operational results, there's a couple of noteworthy items investors should account for when assessingAlibaba'sbusiness results. The first one of these isAlibaba'scustomer count growth. While Alibaba already has a large share of the addressable market in its home country, its growth potential in foreign markets is more pronounced. Ongoing growth in the number of users across Alibaba's platforms would be a good sign for BABA's longer-term international growth potential.Second, BABA's cloud growth performance is an important metric. China's cloud computing market is not as developed as that of the US or Europe, but BABA is one of the leading Chinese cloud players. During the most recent quarter, Alibaba's cloud computing revenue, including Alibaba Cloud and DingTalk, totaled $2.9 billion once inter-segment revenues are eliminated. That was up just 4% year over year, which was weaker compared to what many investors had expected. As BABA's cloud computing business is seen as an important growth driver going forward, an improvement in the sales growth rate for the unit would be a good sign. Since business customers likely have become less defensive during the fiscal third quarter as China started to reopen its economy, I believe that an improvement in the growth rate is likely, although not guaranteed. If BABA's cloud revenue growth rate remained weak during the quarter, that would be a bad sign for the company and its stock, as it would hurt one argument of the bull thesis. If cloud revenue growth improved, that would be a major positive, however. This would align with the belief that BABA's cloud business will eventually become a major growth driver for shareholder value -- potentially similar to what AWS has done for Amazon (AMZN), with the added benefit that BABA's core retail business is pretty profitable, which does not hold true for Amazon.When it comes to BABA's margin performance, the recent past has been positive. During the fiscal second quarter, Alibaba grew its adjusted EBITDA by 24%, relative to the previous year's quarter, which was the result of more cost-cutting efforts, as revenue had grown significantly less than 24% over the same time frame. Alibaba has brought down non-core spending in the recent past, which had a positive impact on profitability. It is likely that this trend persisted through the fiscal third quarter, which is why an improvement in BABA's bottom line during the quarter is likely, relative to one year earlier. Investors should be happy about this trend, of course, as improving margins mean that BABA could be able to grow its profit faster than its revenue. Since earnings, or earnings per share, ultimately impact a stock's price (at constant valuations, at least), earnings per share growth is one of the most important metrics for investors.Macro, Risks, And Final ThoughtsWith China's economic reopening, the macro picture for consumer spending in the country looks positive. At the same time, however, tensions exist between China and the US. Very recently, the US warned that China might provide more active support to Russia when it comes to the ongoing war in Ukraine. If that happens, tensions between the US and China could rise further, which could be a reason for US-based investors to sell shares of BABA, which could cause a declining share price. Tensions due to the brewing Taiwan conflict are another macro risk that should be considered by Alibaba's shareholders.Alibaba has seen its share price benefit from the fact that regulation seems to be a declining risk factor for BABA, although it still remains an issue investors should keep an eye on. Chinese regulators have recently allowed a capital increase for Ant Group, in which BABA owns a large position. This suggests that regulators have become less harsh when it comes to Ant Group, which, in turn, could be beneficial for BABA, where regulation has been a concern (and a bear argument) as well. While this risk has not vanished, it's good to see that things are seemingly moving in the right direction.To sum things up, Alibaba is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing economic reopening in its most important market, and recent margin improvement initiatives have been paying off. BABA has a good chance of beating earnings estimates when it reports later this week, I believe. At current prices, BABA is trading for around 12x to 13x this year's expected net profit, while the earnings multiple based on next year's expected earnings per share is just 11. That upcoming fiscal year will start in April, or just above 2 months from now. While the risk factors have not ceased to exist, the regulatory risk has gotten less severe, I believe, and the low valuation could result in significant upside potential for BABA in the longer run.This article is written by Jonathan Weber for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9957361861,"gmtCreate":1677019663254,"gmtModify":1677019666916,"author":{"id":"3581989576547489","authorId":"3581989576547489","name":"SimonTan91","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33a746662324e75f8c65f010f1588b16","vip":1,"crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581989576547489","authorIdStr":"3581989576547489"},"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957361861","repostId":1160776999,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160776999","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1676989264,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160776999?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-21 22:21","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Will Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160776999","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings ","content":"<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-21 22:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160776999","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe.Article ThesisWhen Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA)(OTCPK:BABAF) reported its last quarterly results, the company beat estimates easily. Since Alibaba will report its next quarterly results this week, we'll take a look at what investors can expect from thereport and at some items that will be important going forward.What Can We Expect From BABA's Results?Alibaba Group Holding Limited will report its next quarterly results on Thursday, February 23. Analysts are currently predicting that the company will report the following results for the quarter:Seeking AlphaBoth the earnings per share estimate and the revenue estimate represent a big increase versus the results that Alibaba reported for the previous quarter, its fiscal Q2. This can be explained by two factors. First, China started to reopen its economy during the most recent quarter. While the country had been following a Zero COVID approach for sometime, that changed towards the end of the calendar year 2022. China's economic reopening has led to improving consumer sentiment, as consumers are willing to spend more when they aren't locked down and uncertain about their economic future. Business customers also are more active following China's reopening, thus activity increased in that segment as well.On top of that, there also is a seasonal impact at play, however. The fiscal third quarter almost always is a more active one compared to the fiscal second quarter for Alibaba due to the holiday impact (even though the Chinese New Year is in January or February). The 11/11 day, or Single's Day, plays a role in the fiscal third quarter being a stronger-than-average year for Alibaba and many other Chinese consumer companies. An improvement in BABA's sales from the fiscal second quarter to the fiscal third quarter would thus be expected even without the COVID policy change tailwind, but the positive impact of China's reopening will likely translate into a more pronounced quarter-to-quarter growth rate.Not surprisingly, the earnings per share estimate implies a considerable earnings improvement on a sequential basis as well. With rising revenues, profits are rising, all else equal. Due to the impact of operating leverage -- operating expenses are generally growing slower than revenues and gross profits -- earnings growth could be more pronounced than the company's sales growth. That is also what analysts are predicting, as the forecasted earnings per share increase of 35% is significantly larger than the forecasted revenue increase of 24%. It is likely that Alibaba's buybacks play a role here as well. The company is currently buying back shares under its $25 billion buyback authorization, thus a decline in the company's share count, both on a year-over-year basis as well as on a sequential basis, should positively impact Alibaba's earnings per share growth rate.The expected earnings per share of $2.44 for the quarter imply that Alibaba will earn $7.75 during the current year when we also factor in the current consensus estimate for Alibaba's fiscal fourth quarter (the one we are in right now). Of course, it would not be too surprising to see Alibaba outperform expectations, as that would be very much in line with the recent performance. Or, in other words, Wall Street analysts have a pretty clear track record of underestimating Alibaba, at least in the recent past:Seeking AlphaOver the last four quarters, Alibaba has beaten earnings per share estimates every single time. On average, the company beat estimates by $0.16, which is pretty meaningful. If the company were to beat estimates for the third quarter and the fourth quarter by a similar amount, actual earnings per share would come in around $8.10 for the current year, significantly above what analysts are predicting right now. This is, of course, not guaranteed, but I believe that an earnings beat is more likely than an earnings miss.When it comes to Alibaba's operational results, there's a couple of noteworthy items investors should account for when assessingAlibaba'sbusiness results. The first one of these isAlibaba'scustomer count growth. While Alibaba already has a large share of the addressable market in its home country, its growth potential in foreign markets is more pronounced. Ongoing growth in the number of users across Alibaba's platforms would be a good sign for BABA's longer-term international growth potential.Second, BABA's cloud growth performance is an important metric. China's cloud computing market is not as developed as that of the US or Europe, but BABA is one of the leading Chinese cloud players. During the most recent quarter, Alibaba's cloud computing revenue, including Alibaba Cloud and DingTalk, totaled $2.9 billion once inter-segment revenues are eliminated. That was up just 4% year over year, which was weaker compared to what many investors had expected. As BABA's cloud computing business is seen as an important growth driver going forward, an improvement in the sales growth rate for the unit would be a good sign. Since business customers likely have become less defensive during the fiscal third quarter as China started to reopen its economy, I believe that an improvement in the growth rate is likely, although not guaranteed. If BABA's cloud revenue growth rate remained weak during the quarter, that would be a bad sign for the company and its stock, as it would hurt one argument of the bull thesis. If cloud revenue growth improved, that would be a major positive, however. This would align with the belief that BABA's cloud business will eventually become a major growth driver for shareholder value -- potentially similar to what AWS has done for Amazon (AMZN), with the added benefit that BABA's core retail business is pretty profitable, which does not hold true for Amazon.When it comes to BABA's margin performance, the recent past has been positive. During the fiscal second quarter, Alibaba grew its adjusted EBITDA by 24%, relative to the previous year's quarter, which was the result of more cost-cutting efforts, as revenue had grown significantly less than 24% over the same time frame. Alibaba has brought down non-core spending in the recent past, which had a positive impact on profitability. It is likely that this trend persisted through the fiscal third quarter, which is why an improvement in BABA's bottom line during the quarter is likely, relative to one year earlier. Investors should be happy about this trend, of course, as improving margins mean that BABA could be able to grow its profit faster than its revenue. Since earnings, or earnings per share, ultimately impact a stock's price (at constant valuations, at least), earnings per share growth is one of the most important metrics for investors.Macro, Risks, And Final ThoughtsWith China's economic reopening, the macro picture for consumer spending in the country looks positive. At the same time, however, tensions exist between China and the US. Very recently, the US warned that China might provide more active support to Russia when it comes to the ongoing war in Ukraine. If that happens, tensions between the US and China could rise further, which could be a reason for US-based investors to sell shares of BABA, which could cause a declining share price. Tensions due to the brewing Taiwan conflict are another macro risk that should be considered by Alibaba's shareholders.Alibaba has seen its share price benefit from the fact that regulation seems to be a declining risk factor for BABA, although it still remains an issue investors should keep an eye on. Chinese regulators have recently allowed a capital increase for Ant Group, in which BABA owns a large position. This suggests that regulators have become less harsh when it comes to Ant Group, which, in turn, could be beneficial for BABA, where regulation has been a concern (and a bear argument) as well. While this risk has not vanished, it's good to see that things are seemingly moving in the right direction.To sum things up, Alibaba is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing economic reopening in its most important market, and recent margin improvement initiatives have been paying off. BABA has a good chance of beating earnings estimates when it reports later this week, I believe. At current prices, BABA is trading for around 12x to 13x this year's expected net profit, while the earnings multiple based on next year's expected earnings per share is just 11. That upcoming fiscal year will start in April, or just above 2 months from now. While the risk factors have not ceased to exist, the regulatory risk has gotten less severe, I believe, and the low valuation could result in significant upside potential for BABA in the longer run.This article is written by Jonathan Weber for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9957363453,"gmtCreate":1677019556672,"gmtModify":1677019560359,"author":{"id":"3581837121803380","authorId":"3581837121803380","name":"ArcherWG","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/38e40c44fababa6849ceb15dfe8931a3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3581837121803380","authorIdStr":"3581837121803380"},"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957363453","repostId":1160776999,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160776999","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1676989264,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160776999?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-21 22:21","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Will Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160776999","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings ","content":"<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-21 22:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160776999","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe.Article ThesisWhen Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA)(OTCPK:BABAF) reported its last quarterly results, the company beat estimates easily. Since Alibaba will report its next quarterly results this week, we'll take a look at what investors can expect from thereport and at some items that will be important going forward.What Can We Expect From BABA's Results?Alibaba Group Holding Limited will report its next quarterly results on Thursday, February 23. Analysts are currently predicting that the company will report the following results for the quarter:Seeking AlphaBoth the earnings per share estimate and the revenue estimate represent a big increase versus the results that Alibaba reported for the previous quarter, its fiscal Q2. This can be explained by two factors. First, China started to reopen its economy during the most recent quarter. While the country had been following a Zero COVID approach for sometime, that changed towards the end of the calendar year 2022. China's economic reopening has led to improving consumer sentiment, as consumers are willing to spend more when they aren't locked down and uncertain about their economic future. Business customers also are more active following China's reopening, thus activity increased in that segment as well.On top of that, there also is a seasonal impact at play, however. The fiscal third quarter almost always is a more active one compared to the fiscal second quarter for Alibaba due to the holiday impact (even though the Chinese New Year is in January or February). The 11/11 day, or Single's Day, plays a role in the fiscal third quarter being a stronger-than-average year for Alibaba and many other Chinese consumer companies. An improvement in BABA's sales from the fiscal second quarter to the fiscal third quarter would thus be expected even without the COVID policy change tailwind, but the positive impact of China's reopening will likely translate into a more pronounced quarter-to-quarter growth rate.Not surprisingly, the earnings per share estimate implies a considerable earnings improvement on a sequential basis as well. With rising revenues, profits are rising, all else equal. Due to the impact of operating leverage -- operating expenses are generally growing slower than revenues and gross profits -- earnings growth could be more pronounced than the company's sales growth. That is also what analysts are predicting, as the forecasted earnings per share increase of 35% is significantly larger than the forecasted revenue increase of 24%. It is likely that Alibaba's buybacks play a role here as well. The company is currently buying back shares under its $25 billion buyback authorization, thus a decline in the company's share count, both on a year-over-year basis as well as on a sequential basis, should positively impact Alibaba's earnings per share growth rate.The expected earnings per share of $2.44 for the quarter imply that Alibaba will earn $7.75 during the current year when we also factor in the current consensus estimate for Alibaba's fiscal fourth quarter (the one we are in right now). Of course, it would not be too surprising to see Alibaba outperform expectations, as that would be very much in line with the recent performance. Or, in other words, Wall Street analysts have a pretty clear track record of underestimating Alibaba, at least in the recent past:Seeking AlphaOver the last four quarters, Alibaba has beaten earnings per share estimates every single time. On average, the company beat estimates by $0.16, which is pretty meaningful. If the company were to beat estimates for the third quarter and the fourth quarter by a similar amount, actual earnings per share would come in around $8.10 for the current year, significantly above what analysts are predicting right now. This is, of course, not guaranteed, but I believe that an earnings beat is more likely than an earnings miss.When it comes to Alibaba's operational results, there's a couple of noteworthy items investors should account for when assessingAlibaba'sbusiness results. The first one of these isAlibaba'scustomer count growth. While Alibaba already has a large share of the addressable market in its home country, its growth potential in foreign markets is more pronounced. Ongoing growth in the number of users across Alibaba's platforms would be a good sign for BABA's longer-term international growth potential.Second, BABA's cloud growth performance is an important metric. China's cloud computing market is not as developed as that of the US or Europe, but BABA is one of the leading Chinese cloud players. During the most recent quarter, Alibaba's cloud computing revenue, including Alibaba Cloud and DingTalk, totaled $2.9 billion once inter-segment revenues are eliminated. That was up just 4% year over year, which was weaker compared to what many investors had expected. As BABA's cloud computing business is seen as an important growth driver going forward, an improvement in the sales growth rate for the unit would be a good sign. Since business customers likely have become less defensive during the fiscal third quarter as China started to reopen its economy, I believe that an improvement in the growth rate is likely, although not guaranteed. If BABA's cloud revenue growth rate remained weak during the quarter, that would be a bad sign for the company and its stock, as it would hurt one argument of the bull thesis. If cloud revenue growth improved, that would be a major positive, however. This would align with the belief that BABA's cloud business will eventually become a major growth driver for shareholder value -- potentially similar to what AWS has done for Amazon (AMZN), with the added benefit that BABA's core retail business is pretty profitable, which does not hold true for Amazon.When it comes to BABA's margin performance, the recent past has been positive. During the fiscal second quarter, Alibaba grew its adjusted EBITDA by 24%, relative to the previous year's quarter, which was the result of more cost-cutting efforts, as revenue had grown significantly less than 24% over the same time frame. Alibaba has brought down non-core spending in the recent past, which had a positive impact on profitability. It is likely that this trend persisted through the fiscal third quarter, which is why an improvement in BABA's bottom line during the quarter is likely, relative to one year earlier. Investors should be happy about this trend, of course, as improving margins mean that BABA could be able to grow its profit faster than its revenue. Since earnings, or earnings per share, ultimately impact a stock's price (at constant valuations, at least), earnings per share growth is one of the most important metrics for investors.Macro, Risks, And Final ThoughtsWith China's economic reopening, the macro picture for consumer spending in the country looks positive. At the same time, however, tensions exist between China and the US. Very recently, the US warned that China might provide more active support to Russia when it comes to the ongoing war in Ukraine. If that happens, tensions between the US and China could rise further, which could be a reason for US-based investors to sell shares of BABA, which could cause a declining share price. Tensions due to the brewing Taiwan conflict are another macro risk that should be considered by Alibaba's shareholders.Alibaba has seen its share price benefit from the fact that regulation seems to be a declining risk factor for BABA, although it still remains an issue investors should keep an eye on. Chinese regulators have recently allowed a capital increase for Ant Group, in which BABA owns a large position. This suggests that regulators have become less harsh when it comes to Ant Group, which, in turn, could be beneficial for BABA, where regulation has been a concern (and a bear argument) as well. While this risk has not vanished, it's good to see that things are seemingly moving in the right direction.To sum things up, Alibaba is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing economic reopening in its most important market, and recent margin improvement initiatives have been paying off. BABA has a good chance of beating earnings estimates when it reports later this week, I believe. At current prices, BABA is trading for around 12x to 13x this year's expected net profit, while the earnings multiple based on next year's expected earnings per share is just 11. That upcoming fiscal year will start in April, or just above 2 months from now. While the risk factors have not ceased to exist, the regulatory risk has gotten less severe, I believe, and the low valuation could result in significant upside potential for BABA in the longer run.This article is written by Jonathan Weber for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":9957369422,"gmtCreate":1677018874966,"gmtModify":1677018880412,"author":{"id":"4098866635611070","authorId":"4098866635611070","name":"Vincentan59","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a5c91735e742c607283b7643b505c8e4","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1f49570794979e009a5efdeb6f4789","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4098866635611070","authorIdStr":"4098866635611070"},"htmlText":"🥹😱😱😱🙈","listText":"🥹😱😱😱🙈","text":"🥹😱😱😱🙈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9957369422","repostId":1160776999,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160776999","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1676989264,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1160776999?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-02-21 22:21","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Will Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160776999","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings ","content":"<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Alibaba's Earnings Surprise Again?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-21 22:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe....</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4579947-will-alibaba-earnings-surprise-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160776999","content_text":"SummaryAlibaba will report its quarterly earnings on Thursday.Investors can expect another earnings beat, I believe.The macro situation has improved, and the regulatory risk has gotten less severe.Article ThesisWhen Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA)(OTCPK:BABAF) reported its last quarterly results, the company beat estimates easily. Since Alibaba will report its next quarterly results this week, we'll take a look at what investors can expect from thereport and at some items that will be important going forward.What Can We Expect From BABA's Results?Alibaba Group Holding Limited will report its next quarterly results on Thursday, February 23. Analysts are currently predicting that the company will report the following results for the quarter:Seeking AlphaBoth the earnings per share estimate and the revenue estimate represent a big increase versus the results that Alibaba reported for the previous quarter, its fiscal Q2. This can be explained by two factors. First, China started to reopen its economy during the most recent quarter. While the country had been following a Zero COVID approach for sometime, that changed towards the end of the calendar year 2022. China's economic reopening has led to improving consumer sentiment, as consumers are willing to spend more when they aren't locked down and uncertain about their economic future. Business customers also are more active following China's reopening, thus activity increased in that segment as well.On top of that, there also is a seasonal impact at play, however. The fiscal third quarter almost always is a more active one compared to the fiscal second quarter for Alibaba due to the holiday impact (even though the Chinese New Year is in January or February). The 11/11 day, or Single's Day, plays a role in the fiscal third quarter being a stronger-than-average year for Alibaba and many other Chinese consumer companies. An improvement in BABA's sales from the fiscal second quarter to the fiscal third quarter would thus be expected even without the COVID policy change tailwind, but the positive impact of China's reopening will likely translate into a more pronounced quarter-to-quarter growth rate.Not surprisingly, the earnings per share estimate implies a considerable earnings improvement on a sequential basis as well. With rising revenues, profits are rising, all else equal. Due to the impact of operating leverage -- operating expenses are generally growing slower than revenues and gross profits -- earnings growth could be more pronounced than the company's sales growth. That is also what analysts are predicting, as the forecasted earnings per share increase of 35% is significantly larger than the forecasted revenue increase of 24%. It is likely that Alibaba's buybacks play a role here as well. The company is currently buying back shares under its $25 billion buyback authorization, thus a decline in the company's share count, both on a year-over-year basis as well as on a sequential basis, should positively impact Alibaba's earnings per share growth rate.The expected earnings per share of $2.44 for the quarter imply that Alibaba will earn $7.75 during the current year when we also factor in the current consensus estimate for Alibaba's fiscal fourth quarter (the one we are in right now). Of course, it would not be too surprising to see Alibaba outperform expectations, as that would be very much in line with the recent performance. Or, in other words, Wall Street analysts have a pretty clear track record of underestimating Alibaba, at least in the recent past:Seeking AlphaOver the last four quarters, Alibaba has beaten earnings per share estimates every single time. On average, the company beat estimates by $0.16, which is pretty meaningful. If the company were to beat estimates for the third quarter and the fourth quarter by a similar amount, actual earnings per share would come in around $8.10 for the current year, significantly above what analysts are predicting right now. This is, of course, not guaranteed, but I believe that an earnings beat is more likely than an earnings miss.When it comes to Alibaba's operational results, there's a couple of noteworthy items investors should account for when assessingAlibaba'sbusiness results. The first one of these isAlibaba'scustomer count growth. While Alibaba already has a large share of the addressable market in its home country, its growth potential in foreign markets is more pronounced. Ongoing growth in the number of users across Alibaba's platforms would be a good sign for BABA's longer-term international growth potential.Second, BABA's cloud growth performance is an important metric. China's cloud computing market is not as developed as that of the US or Europe, but BABA is one of the leading Chinese cloud players. During the most recent quarter, Alibaba's cloud computing revenue, including Alibaba Cloud and DingTalk, totaled $2.9 billion once inter-segment revenues are eliminated. That was up just 4% year over year, which was weaker compared to what many investors had expected. As BABA's cloud computing business is seen as an important growth driver going forward, an improvement in the sales growth rate for the unit would be a good sign. Since business customers likely have become less defensive during the fiscal third quarter as China started to reopen its economy, I believe that an improvement in the growth rate is likely, although not guaranteed. If BABA's cloud revenue growth rate remained weak during the quarter, that would be a bad sign for the company and its stock, as it would hurt one argument of the bull thesis. If cloud revenue growth improved, that would be a major positive, however. This would align with the belief that BABA's cloud business will eventually become a major growth driver for shareholder value -- potentially similar to what AWS has done for Amazon (AMZN), with the added benefit that BABA's core retail business is pretty profitable, which does not hold true for Amazon.When it comes to BABA's margin performance, the recent past has been positive. During the fiscal second quarter, Alibaba grew its adjusted EBITDA by 24%, relative to the previous year's quarter, which was the result of more cost-cutting efforts, as revenue had grown significantly less than 24% over the same time frame. Alibaba has brought down non-core spending in the recent past, which had a positive impact on profitability. It is likely that this trend persisted through the fiscal third quarter, which is why an improvement in BABA's bottom line during the quarter is likely, relative to one year earlier. Investors should be happy about this trend, of course, as improving margins mean that BABA could be able to grow its profit faster than its revenue. Since earnings, or earnings per share, ultimately impact a stock's price (at constant valuations, at least), earnings per share growth is one of the most important metrics for investors.Macro, Risks, And Final ThoughtsWith China's economic reopening, the macro picture for consumer spending in the country looks positive. At the same time, however, tensions exist between China and the US. Very recently, the US warned that China might provide more active support to Russia when it comes to the ongoing war in Ukraine. If that happens, tensions between the US and China could rise further, which could be a reason for US-based investors to sell shares of BABA, which could cause a declining share price. Tensions due to the brewing Taiwan conflict are another macro risk that should be considered by Alibaba's shareholders.Alibaba has seen its share price benefit from the fact that regulation seems to be a declining risk factor for BABA, although it still remains an issue investors should keep an eye on. Chinese regulators have recently allowed a capital increase for Ant Group, in which BABA owns a large position. This suggests that regulators have become less harsh when it comes to Ant Group, which, in turn, could be beneficial for BABA, where regulation has been a concern (and a bear argument) as well. While this risk has not vanished, it's good to see that things are seemingly moving in the right direction.To sum things up, Alibaba is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing economic reopening in its most important market, and recent margin improvement initiatives have been paying off. BABA has a good chance of beating earnings estimates when it reports later this week, I believe. At current prices, BABA is trading for around 12x to 13x this year's expected net profit, while the earnings multiple based on next year's expected earnings per share is just 11. That upcoming fiscal year will start in April, or just above 2 months from now. While the risk factors have not ceased to exist, the regulatory risk has gotten less severe, I believe, and the low valuation could result in significant upside potential for BABA in the longer run.This article is written by Jonathan Weber for reference only. Please note the risks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":466,"commentSize":28,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1160776999","isCrawlerRequest":true}