Pre-market market movements.
1. On Monday, November 2, ahead of the US market open, all three major US stock index futures were rising. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.61%, S&P 500 index futures were up 0.54%, and Nasdaq futures were up 0.80%.
2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was up 0.21%, the UK's FTSE 100 was up 0.05%, France's CAC 40 was up 0.33%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.28%.
3. As of press time, WTI crude oil futures fell 4.50% to $99.43 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures dropped 4.32% to $108.53 per barrel.
Market News
After the massive selloff in tech stocks, US equities face another pivotal week: midterm elections, heavyweight earnings, and nonfarm payrolls take center stage in succession.
A string of disappointing earnings from large US technology companies triggered a sharp selloff in the tech sector, but the market is more inclined to view this as an "expectation correction" rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. This week, market focus quickly shifts to the US midterm elections, the October nonfarm payrolls report, and earnings from heavyweight stocks including Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). Meanwhile, following Binance's encounter with the largest crypto hack in history, trust repair and regulatory direction in the crypto industry have also become new points of attention.
Breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations sends international oil prices below $100.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated on November 1 that Iran has agreed to a "two-day plan" — once the US fulfills its commitments, the Strait of Hormuz will resume navigation the following day, and US-Iran negotiations will restart accordingly. Mediators including Qatar are pushing to compress the timeline to within five days. Previously, Netanyahu urged Trump to "immediately resume the war against Iran" after the midterm elections, but Trump prefers to let negotiations fully unfold. Progress in the talks has eased concerns about crude supply disruptions, with WTI crude briefly falling below $100 per barrel and Brent dropping nearly 4%, lifting the inflation burden off risk assets.
OPEC+ keeps December output unchanged, refraining from adding supply for now.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stated on November 1 that seven major OPEC+ oil-producing countries decided to maintain current crude output levels unchanged in December. Media reports indicated that producers are still dealing with export disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts and will not make further policy adjustments before next year. Producing countries need to complete capacity assessments in the fourth quarter to determine 2027 quotas. OPEC+ increased production month by month from April to September this year and paused increases starting in October. The decision to maintain the status quo, combined with progress in US-Iran negotiations, has jointly pushed down the oil price risk premium, but the recurring Middle East situation remains a core variable.
Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts, warning of intensified supply risks.
Goldman Sachs Group raised its oil price forecasts for the end of this year and 2027, citing rising risks to crude supply. As Middle East hostilities persist for months, Goldman Sachs has joined other banks in raising oil price forecasts. Analysts led by Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby noted in a report that Brent crude is expected to reach $105 per barrel in December, up from a previous forecast of $90. The average price for next year is projected at $88 per barrel, 10% higher than the previous forecast. Analysts also raised their price forecasts for WTI crude.
US midterm elections approach, with Tuesday's vote raising liquidity and policy risks.
The US midterm elections will be held on Tuesday, November 3 local time, with markets watching how control of Congress will affect fiscal, regulatory, and industry policies going forward. Analysts noted that the elections inject headline and liquidity risks between the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision and Wednesday's market open, but do not add scheduled data releases. In the final full trading week before the vote, investors tend to reduce directional bets, and volatility in tech and high-beta sectors may be amplified by election uncertainty, with the race itself becoming a source of short-term disturbance.
AI financing race spreads to Japan, with yen bond issuance hitting a record $16 billion.
According to reports, as AI hyperscale cloud service providers spark a global financing boom, overseas companies and institutions are beginning to seek funding support from Japanese investors. Daiwa Securities statistics show that from April to September this year, the scale of yen bonds issued by foreign entities hit a record high. The total amount of yen bonds issued by foreign institutions in Japan and yen bonds issued overseas was approximately 2.5 trillion yen (about $15.9 billion), up 160% year-on-year, surpassing the record of 2.1 trillion yen set from October 2018 to March 2019.
Individual Stock News
Demand resilient ahead of holiday season, Estée Lauder (NYSE: EL) raises annual performance expectations.
Estée Lauder raised its annual sales and profit forecasts on Monday, betting that demand for its premium skincare and fragrance brands will remain resilient ahead of the holiday season, while the CEO's year-long transformation initiatives are driving growth. Despite economic uncertainty, consumers remain keen on purchasing skincare and fragrance products, which boosted the company's luxury skincare and fragrance sales. As part of CEO's Beauty Reimagined strategy, Estée Lauder has been focusing on accelerating innovation, expanding into new channels and markets, leveraging AI for consumer insights and marketing, increasing consumer-facing investments, streamlining operations, and cutting costs through job reductions. The company expects organic sales to grow 4% to 5.5% in fiscal 2027, up from a previous expectation of 3% to 5%. The company also expects full-year adjusted earnings per share between $3.20 and $3.45, higher than the previous forecast of $3.10 to $3.35.
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to release fourth-quarter earnings after the bell, with new CEO's debut in focus.
Apple will report fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter results for the period ending in September after the US market close on Monday, and will hold its first earnings call since new CEO John Ternus took over from Cook. The market consensus expects revenue of about $113.4 billion (up 10.7% year-on-year) and adjusted earnings per share of about $1.99–$2.00 (up 8%–11% year-on-year). iPhone revenue is projected at about $56.5 billion (up 15% year-on-year), with services revenue at about $31.6 billion. The company reclaimed the "stock king" title from NVIDIA ($4.93 trillion) last Friday with a market capitalization of $5.03 trillion. However, the erosion of hardware gross margins from memory price increases and holiday-quarter guidance are the biggest focal points of this earnings report.
Musk: Space-based AI computing additions expected to surpass ground-based by end of 2028.
Elon Musk predicts that by the end of 2028, the monthly incremental scale of AI computing deployed in space could exceed ground-based additions, with the gap widening further in 2029. Previously, Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire predicted that SpaceX (NYSE: SPCX) revenue would grow from $51.5 billion in 2026 to $731 billion in 2028, though this forecast faces uncertainties including supply chain and policy factors. Musk stated that outsiders may be severely underestimating SpaceX's capital efficiency.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) sees sharp increase in new vehicle registrations in Northern Europe in October.
According to data from Swedish automotive industry organization Mobility Sweden, Norwegian data agency OFV, and Danish vehicle data platform bilstatistik.dk, Tesla's registrations surged 248% in Sweden, rose 131% in Norway, and increased 34% in Denmark in October. The rebound was supported by a low comparison base from the same period last year, rising fuel prices, government incentives, and continued growth in electric vehicle demand. Registration data for the UK and Germany, Europe's two largest car markets, is expected later this week. Tesla previously said its passenger vehicle order backlog at the end of the third quarter reached its highest level in four years.
Anthropic (NYSE: ANT) plans to sell $3.5 billion worth of shares to Japanese investors in its IPO.
Documents show that AI company Anthropic will sell up to 552.9 billion yen (about $3.5 billion) worth of shares to Japanese investors during its US listing process. The documents stated that funds raised from issuing new shares to Japanese investors will be used to supplement working capital and pay for operating expenses and capital expenditures. The documents did not disclose the size or valuation of the IPO. Reuters previously reported that some investors discussed an Anthropic valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion.
Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) launches its second euro bond issuance of the year.
Google parent company Alphabet launched its second euro bond issuance this year, planning to issue in seven tranches, in another move by a major tech company to raise funds for AI investments. According to a person familiar with the matter, Alphabet's bond issuance ranges from 2-year to 19-year maturities, with the shortest-dated fixed-rate bonds initially guided at about 60 basis points above the mid-swap rate, and the longest-dated bonds at a spread of about 205 to 210 basis points. Barclays, BNP Paribas, and Deutsche Bank are managing the bond issuance, which is expected to be priced later on Monday.
Meta (NASDAQ: META) partnering with a Chinese company to develop humanoid robots? Fourier responds.
Recently, reports emerged that Meta has partnered with Chinese robotics company Fourier to build a humanoid robot prototype in about three months, and the two parties are already developing a second version. The robot, internally called Max at Meta, weighs about 48 kilograms and is used for internal research and experiments. Meta's Vice President of Robotics Products, Li-Chen Miller, also spent nearly two months at Fourier's Shanghai factory. In response, Fourier founder and CEO Gu Jie replied that he could not comment at this time.
Key Economic Data and Event Preview
Beijing time 22:45: US October S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final reading.
Beijing time 23:00: US October ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Beijing time 00:15 next day: 2027 FOMC voting member, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee delivers a speech.
Earnings Preview
Tuesday morning: Apple, Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR), ON Semiconductor (NASDAQ: ON), Roku (NASDAQ: ROKU).
Tuesday pre-market: Philips (NYSE: PHG), Shopify (NYSE: SHOP), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC), Keurig Dr Pepper (NASDAQ: KDP).
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