Where to begin
Prominent Wall Street analyst Adam Jonas believes SpaceX (stock code: SPCX) needs to better articulate its value to investors.
Key insights
Earlier this week, SpaceX AI launched the beta version of Grok Bot. This is a 24/7 intelligent assistant capable of scheduling smart agents and various tools within a virtual computing environment. The feature is now available to SuperGrok Heavy, Cursor Ultra, and Cursor Teams Premium desktop and iOS subscribers.
In his latest research report released on Thursday, Morgan Stanley's Jonas offered two core judgments on this development:
First, Jonas stated: "To shift the market's perception of SpaceX AI beyond just a new-generation cloud service provider, the key is to provide concrete evidence that the company can deliver value-added services competitive with leading-edge large model products. Grok Bot represents an important step in building an enterprise platform that integrates AI, real-time data, low-cost scalable computing power, and global communication networks, leveraging its unique advantages to create a rich toolkit of enterprise tools."
Second, he added: "Most investors currently still view SpaceX AI merely as a modestly successful emerging cloud vendor, with almost no recognition of its potential to productize internal computing power... Progress in large model development over the coming weeks could be a pivotal factor in changing market valuation: official updates on Cursor are expected following the completion of the acquisition (within weeks); the launch of Grok version 4.6 this week, followed by Grok 4.7 later this month, and Grok 5 planned for release before the year's end."
Jonas sets a price target of $300 for SpaceX, more than double its current share price.
AlphaSpace key data: Three-quarters
Recently, SpaceX shares have seen increased volatility.
Last Thursday, a total of 911.5 million SpaceX shares held by employees and early investors were unlocked and became tradable, just two days after the company released its first earnings report following its listing. The number of unlocked shares was about 43% higher than the 638.9 million shares issued in the IPO.
However, investors did not panic sell, and the stock surged 16% later last week. The share price rebounded from an intraday low of $104.83 on August 3 to close at $146.15 on August 12.
This Monday, the stock stood above its IPO price of $135 for the first time in about a month. AlphaSpace data from Yahoo Finance shows that the stock closed above the IPO price on three of the last four trading days.
Most market attention has focused on the unlocking of restricted shares and the share price rebound from lows, with less focus on the pros and cons of SpaceX's second-quarter earnings and the potential for similar characteristics in its third-quarter results.
SpaceX's total capital expenditure in the second quarter reached $18.4 billion, significantly higher than the analyst consensus of about $6 billion. Management commentary suggested that quarterly capital expenditure in the third and fourth quarters could remain at similar levels, bringing the full-year capital expenditure estimate to around $65 billion, compared to the Wall Street consensus of $50 billion.
The company did not provide specific financial guidance for 2026.
Final thoughts
In the coming months, Elon Musk will still need to continuously persuade the capital market. From the Grok product line that Jonas is closely watching to ongoing calls from other Wall Street institutions for the company to clarify its rocket launch business prospects and address merger-related matters with Tesla, the path to long-term share price appreciation for SpaceX is bound to be volatile and bumpy.
Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report, said on Yahoo Finance's "Opening Bid" program: "To be honest, the magnitude of the rebound late last week was somewhat surprising. But history has repeatedly shown that betting against Elon Musk is often a losing bet, and I think this time is likely no exception. So, I am bullish on SpaceX in the long term. However, investors must be prepared for significant volatility along the way; this company's stock price has always been prone to big swings."
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