下周看点：美联储领衔超级央行周，德国大选箭在弦上

第一财经2021-09-19

作者：樊志菁本周，国际市场风云变幻，美国8月CPI小幅回落，欧洲多国通胀压力升级，苹果发布iPhone 13等新品，美股延续跌势，道指周跌0.1%，纳指周跌0.5%，标普500指数周跌0.6%。同时，欧洲三大股指表现也不佳，英国富时100指数周跌0.9%，德国DAX 30指数周跌0.8%，法国CAC 40指数周跌1.4%。下周看点颇多，包括美国、日本、英国、南非、土耳其、瑞士、挪威和瑞典央行将...

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Youn7276
2021-09-20
Youn7276
閱
- CJing:
  [强]
theng
2021-09-19
theng
好
一剑奈何
2021-09-19
一剑奈何
666
- Youn7276:
  好
- 一剑奈何:
  666

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Manchin)同意支持3.5万亿美元预算支出方案，外界预测这可能会导致最终的刺激规模回落到1.5万亿美元~2.0万亿美元之间。市场也在关注有关民主党增税计划的后续进程，此前众议院民主党人希望通过将最高企业税率从21%提高到26.5%等措施为刺激计划提供资金。\n美联储议息会议是焦点事件，结合静默期前多位美联储官员的讲话，市场预估本次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）政策会议可能会再次重申准备在今年底前开启taper，但11月还是12月将取决于未来的数据表现。更新版季度经济展望（SEP）也值得关注，除了经济增速、就业率和通胀预期外，可以留意点阵图中支持美联储明年底加息的人员是否有所增加。\n周五，鲍威尔、克拉里达，以及美联储理事鲍曼将亮相美联储倾听活动，主题为疫情时期的复苏前景，此外克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特将在俄亥俄州银行家协会、堪萨斯城联储主席乔治将在美国企业协会发表例行讲话。\n经济数据方面，美国将公布9月制造业、服务业PMI初值，关注疫情是否进一步对美国经济造成拖累。房地产市场数据同样关键，机构预测，考虑到房价对需求的打压，美国全国房屋建筑商协会9月份的房屋市场指数可能降至近一年最低水平，8月成屋销售数据或继续小幅回落。此外，美国初请失业金人数、咨商会领先指标等数据也值得留意。\n将公布财报的重点公司包括联邦快递、Adobe、耐克、通用磨坊、好士多、埃森哲，散户抱团股KB Home,黑莓也将披露财报。\n原油与黄金\n国际油价连涨四周，飓风对墨西哥湾原油产量的影响仍在延续。WTI原油近月合约收于每桶71.97美元，周涨3.2%。布伦特原油近月合约收于每桶75.34美元，周涨3.3%\nRystad Energy石油市场分析师布山（Nishant Bhushan）发布报告称，飓风消息使石油输出国组织（OPEC）不再成为市场关注的焦点，但该组织维持了对需求前景的乐观预期。市场对需求的担忧也有所上升，日本已经延长了更严格的封锁措施，试图抑制新冠病毒的进一步传播。对于油价而言，接下来依然需要关注天气因素对生产的影响。\n国际金价创近五周新低，美元和美国国债收益率走高对黄金形成打压。COMEX黄金12月合约收于每盎司1751.40美元，周跌2.3%，连续第二周下跌。\nAltavest管理合伙人阿姆布鲁斯特（Michael Armburster）认为，本周黄金价格走势可能是未来其前进的方向，通货再膨胀交易在2021年结束的可能性越来越大。 从长期来看，美国经济反弹的证据有助于那些主张提前减少资产购买的观点，从而支持美元，这种情况可能导致黄金进一步走软。\n德国大选箭在弦上\n欧洲地区能源危机继续升级，受英国电力能源系统的重要设施火灾影响，该地区天然气价格持续走高。即将到来的冬季可能成为新一轮能源危机的导火索。高盛分析师达特（Samantha Dart）发布报告称，如果欧洲的冬天比预期的要冷，那么欧洲大陆可能需要与亚洲争夺液化天然气（LNG）供应。\n德国大选将是周内最大焦点，在9月26日选举之前，周四将举行最后一场候选人辩论。目前民调显示，社会民主党领先4个百分点，若社会民主党以较低得票率最终赢得大选，在联邦层面则很可能出现多党联合执政的情况，这意味着该党或将缺乏足够的政治空间和力量把雄心勃勃的选举承诺转变为切实政策。\n英国国家统计局的数据显示，英国8月份通胀飙升至九年高位，消费者价格CPI同比涨幅从7月的2%增加至8月的3.2%，1.2个百分点的增幅是自1997年有记录以来的最高水平。 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