Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain uncertain. According to the latest reports, the next round of face-to-face talks could resume as early as the 20th, with U.S. Vice President Vance likely to participate again, accompanied by Presidential Envoy Witkoff.
On the 18th, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf stated on social media that seven declarations previously issued by the former U.S. president within an hour were "all untrue." Although significant progress has been made in the talks, differences remain on key issues. On April 17, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagheri clarified that transferring enriched uranium to the U.S. is "absolutely not an option," and Iran rejects any agreement involving the transfer of enriched uranium abroad. Ghalibaf also emphasized that Iran will never relinquish control over the Strait of Hormuz.
In the markets, all three major U.S. stock indices rose strongly, each gaining over 1%, with the Nasdaq extending its record-breaking streak to 13 consecutive days of gains. Major European indices also surged across the board. Meanwhile, international crude oil prices fell sharply, with WTI crude futures dropping over 11% and Brent crude futures declining more than 9%.
Recent developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations indicate that the next round of talks may resume soon. On April 17, sources familiar with the matter suggested that senior U.S. officials are considering returning to Islamabad to continue negotiations with Iran, aiming for a long-term peace agreement. Vice President Vance is expected to join the talks, with Presidential Envoy Witkoff possibly accompanying him.
As of the morning of the 17th, the exact date for the next round of talks had not been finalized, underscoring the unpredictability of the negotiations. However, the former U.S. president expressed optimism in a phone interview, stating that Iran wants to meet and reach an agreement, with a deal likely within the next day or two. He emphasized that maritime blockades against Iran would not be lifted until a formal agreement is reached but expressed hope for the Strait of Hormuz to be open to all nations.
The former president also noted that the agreement would "ensure Israel’s security" and bring significant benefits to Israel post-conflict, while demanding an end to Israeli airstrikes. Despite notable progress, key disagreements persist, including the duration of Iran’s nuclear enrichment suspension and the handling of enriched uranium stockpiles. Discussions also involve the potential unfreezing of approximately $20 billion in Iranian assets in exchange for abandoning high-enrichment uranium reserves.
Iran’s latest statements reinforce its firm stance. On the 17th, Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagheri reiterated that transferring enriched uranium abroad is unacceptable, emphasizing that Iran’s position is clear following the initial round of talks in Islamabad. He stressed that an agreement is possible only if it fully safeguards Iranian interests and rights. Bagheri also highlighted the importance of compensating Iran for war losses and lifting sanctions, warning that continued U.S. blockades would be considered a violation of the ceasefire, prompting a response from Tehran.
Additionally, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf asserted that control over the Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran, a fact acknowledged by the U.S. He described the former U.S. president’s eagerness for a deal as a sign of failed attempts to undermine Iran’s civilization. Ghalibaf also noted that Iran will not tolerate any military escalation in maritime blockades. Meanwhile, Iran’s Deputy Director of Presidential Communications, Mehdi Tabatabaei, described the conditional opening of parts of the Strait of Hormuz as a proactive measure reflecting Iran’s responsible stance and a test of other parties’ commitments, warning that violations would have consequences.
Following Iran’s announcement of fully opening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, global risk appetite improved significantly. All three major U.S. stock indices closed with gains exceeding 1%, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new record highs. The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, surged 2.11%, also hitting a historic peak. The Nasdaq’s 13-day winning streak matched a record set in 1992, while the S&P 500 recorded its strongest monthly gain since 2020.
Major technology stocks broadly advanced, with Tesla rising over 3%, Apple and Broadcom gaining more than 2%, and NVIDIA, Alphabet, TSMC ADRs, and Meta Platforms each climbing over 1%. Microsoft and Amazon posted modest gains. In Europe, key indices closed higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 2.11%, the UK’s FTSE 100 rising 0.73%, France’s CAC 40 increasing 1.97%, Germany’s DAX climbing 2.27%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB advancing 1.75%.
International crude oil prices experienced significant declines, with WTI futures settling 11.45% lower at $83.85 per barrel and Brent crude falling 9.07% to $90.38 per barrel. According to Mischler Financial Group Managing Director Tom di Galoma, developments in the Persian Gulf are broadly positive, with the opening of the Strait of Hormuz driving global bond yields lower. Most market participants believe the conflict is not over but see sufficient reasons for optimism. Goldman Sachs liquidity strategist John Flood noted that CTA quantitative trend strategies purchased approximately $33 billion in S&P 500 positions this week, maintaining around $10 billion in long positions, though the peak buying phase has passed.
Comments