鲍威尔又给市场喂了一颗定心丸，但美股就能高枕无忧吗？

华尔街见闻2021-08-31

面牵动市场心弦的Jackson Hole全球央行年会终于落下帷幕，美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派发言让投资者们暂时松了一口气，但从长期来看，政策转向是大势所趋，美股依然面临众多考验。在周五(8月27日)的讲话中，鲍威尔着重强调了通胀走高只是暂时的，并首度明确称如果经济进展持续，他与大多数美联储官员都支持可能在今年开始缩减买债（Taper），但减码QE并不直接暗示未来的加息时间。事实上，美国远未满足加息...

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Comments

zh2021
2021-09-01
zh2021
閱
CKWAI
2021-09-01
CKWAI
來，回覆和點贊，謝謝
- CKWAI:
  谢谢
- zh2021:
  ?
龙腾虎跃168
2021-09-01
龙腾虎跃168
長期持有
龙腾虎跃168
2021-09-01
龙腾虎跃168
閱
hhyw
2021-09-01
hhyw
不大跌沒道理??
- 咖啡Ai:
  不能跌啊 [无语]
Youn7276
2021-09-01
Youn7276
閱！

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Management首席经济学家Steven Bell近日表示，市场需要认清一个事实，那就是火已经快灭了，而货币政策依然处于紧急状态的水平，继续放松货币政策是不合适的。\n值得一提的是，这一次有不少国家已经走在美国前面，开启了紧缩之路。美国投资银行斯迪富金融公司公布的数据显示，全球以美元计价的广义货币（M2）供应量同比涨幅3月达到22%的周期性高点后，在今年年中已回落至略高于10%的水平。\n而美联储站在政策转向这个敏感路口，却依然踌躇不前，放眼望去，摆在决策者和市场面前的是诸多的不确定性。\n一方面，美国通胀依然处于高位。8月11日美国国家统计局公布的数据显示，美国7月整体CPI同比增长5.4%，高于预期增长的5.3%，持平于6月5.4%的增幅，这仍然是2008年以来的最高水平。\n\n虽然鲍威尔不断强调，当前这轮通胀只是暂时的，随着疫苗接种和疫情控制，供应赶上需求后，通胀将会消退，但部分美联储官员担忧，供应链中断和需求增长可能会持续推高通胀直至2022年及以后。\n全球央行年会前，美国费城联储行长Patrick Harker表示，美联储正面临着价格压力并未消退的挑战。他认为，通胀将远高于美联储的目标，如果美联储不采取行动，通胀将继续加速，“通胀可能不是那么短暂，这是我担心的风险。”\n这将加大美联储尽快收紧货币政策的压力。近日，全球最大对冲基金桥水的联席首席投资官Greg Jensen在展望后市时表示，届时美联储减码幅度有可能比市场预期更大，利率升速也会更快。\n另一方面 ，Delta变种病毒的肆虐给美国经济复苏前景蒙上了一层阴影。\n美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值较上月骤降11点，至70.2，创2011年12月以来最低水平。数据远低于市场预期。\n另外，美国商务部8月17日公布数据显示，美国7月零售销售环比减少1.1%，大幅超过市场预期的减少0.3%，而前值为增加0.6%。\n\n这一数据公布后，高盛随即宣布将美国三季度GDP增长预期从此前的8.5%大幅下调至5.5%，同时将2021年全年GDP增长预期从此前6.4%下调至6%，预计2022年美国全年经济增长4.5%。\n高盛警告称，Delta变种病毒对经济和通胀的影响比预期更严峻：\n\n 消费者支出和生产都受到了冲击。8月份餐饮、旅游和其他服务支出可能会下降，不过我们预计下降幅度不会太大，也不会太长。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度库存重建会减少。\n\n风险正在加剧\n随着疫情蔓延，经济增速预期放缓，以及美联储货币政策收紧预期升温，美股的不确定性风险正在加剧。\n美银美林全球投资策略师Michael Hartnett预计，今年下半年美国股市将出现负回报，他对通货膨胀加剧带来的滞胀威胁表示担忧。\n摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson也认为，美股正处于回调的边缘。他建议，鉴于预期中的回调，投资者应该投资波动性较低的股票，并预测年底标普500指数会处于4000点左右，这意味当前水平下有10%的下跌空间。\n高盛则对美股的波动性作出了警告。\n高盛衍生品策略官Rocky Fishma上周预计，美股市场波动接下来会飙升，依据是VIX在4天上涨6个点后隐含波动曲线仍保持上升型，反映出波动率将继续大幅上升的预期。\n此外，一年期 VIX 指数期货价格已升至 26，接近其第二季度/第三季度范围的顶部，远高于现货，但低于其第一季度中值28。高盛指出，自从1940年以来，标普500全年实际波动率超过26的情况只有1987年股灾、2008年金融危机和2020年疫情爆发。\n对于投资者来说，运用多样化工具进行风险对冲是控制回撤的最好方法。芝商所最新小规模股指合约微型E‑迷你期货能够帮投资者进行更新精细化的风险部署。\n该工具具有更灵活、更小规模的扩充合约的优势，微型E-迷你合约仅为传统E-迷你合约规模的十分之一，其只需要较低的保证金便能进入市场，以及获取交易标普500指数、纳斯达克100指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000美国指数的机会。\n此外，微型E-迷你期货可用于增加更多粒度，并允许微调某个持仓的指数风险敞口，精确地扩大或缩小指数风险敞口规模。同时，微型E-迷你期货可完全替代传统E-迷你合约，其可在市场条件变化时灵活地管理持仓，并更容易获取深度流动性。\n据介绍，自2019年推出以来，微型E-迷你股指合约的交易量超过 8亿份合约。全球参与度依然强劲，在现金开放前的非美国时段交易量占21%，参与者来自190多个国家。2021年上半年，在非美国时间内，平均每日交易量超过46万份合同。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":818774130,"gmtCreate":1630453356620,"gmtModify":1676530305389,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574387078391491","idStr":"3574387078391491"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818774130","repostId":1171411957,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171411957","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1630387892,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171411957?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-31 13:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Powell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171411957","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"面牵动市场心弦的Jackson Hole全球央行年会终于落下帷幕，美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派发言让投资者们暂时松了一口气，但从长期来看，政策转向是大势所趋，美股依然面临众多考验。\n在周五(8月27日)的讲","content":"The Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks, which touched the heartstrings of the market, finally came to an end. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech temporarily relieved investors.But in the long run, the policy shift is the general trend, and U.S. stocks still face many tests.In his speech on Friday (August 27), Powell emphasized that the rise in inflation is only temporary, and made it clear for the first time that if economic progress continues, he and most Fed officials support the possibility of beginning to reduce bond buying (Taper) this year.), but tapering QE does not directly imply future rate hike time. In fact, the United States is far from meeting the conditions of rate hike, and \"there is still a long way to go before full employment\".Powell's speech not only confirmed people's widespread expectations that Taper is about to start, but also avoided the \"Taper tantrum\" in 2013. The financial market made a positive response similar to \"finally a boot landed\", thus eliminating some policy uncertainty.On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, and spot gold rebounded by more than $10 from the daily low in the short term, not only returning to the key psychological integer of $1,800, but also standing at $1,810.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ac764072a021b8d553965de4e2d0fb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The analysis pointed out that Powell's speech was in line with expectations, and he confirmed the strong job growth in recent months and the downside risks posed by the Delta variant. The bank expects the Fed to give advance notice in September and officially announce the start of reducing the scale of bond purchases in November.Specifically, Goldman Sachs predicts that the probability of the Fed's official announcement in November is 45%, the probability of an official announcement in December is 35%, and the probability of postponing it to 2022 is 20%.A bumpy road to US austerityAlthough there is no risk that the \"Sword of Damocles\" of U.S. monetary policy tightening will fall for the time being, as the U.S. economy improves, inflation is high, and employment recovers, Taper and rate hike are the general trend.Steven Bell, chief economist of BMO Global Asset Management, recently said that the market needs to recognize a fact,That is, the fire is almost out, and monetary policy is still at the level of emergency, so it is inappropriate to continue to ease monetary policy.It is worth mentioning that this time many countries have taken the lead in the United States and started the road of austerity. According to the data released by Steve Financial, an American investment bank, the global supply of broad money (M2) denominated in US dollars increased year-on-year after reaching a cyclical high of 22% in March, it fell back to slightly more than 10% in the middle of this year. level.However, the Federal Reserve stands at the sensitive crossroads of policy shift, but it still hesitates. Looking around, there are many uncertainties facing policy makers and the market.On the one hand, U.S. inflation remains high.Data released by the U.S. Bureau of National Statistics on August 11 showed that the overall CPI in the United States increased by 5.4% year-on-year in July, higher than the expected growth of 5.3%, and unchanged from the 5.4% increase in June, which is still the highest level since 2008.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c9b534228ee4e8bd63ccd14729bdca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current round of inflation is only temporary and will subside after supply catches up with demand with vaccinations and epidemic control, some Fed officials are worried that supply chain disruptions and demand growth may continue to push up Inflation until 2022 and beyond.Before the annual meeting of global central banks, Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said that the Fed is facing the challenge that price pressures have not subsided. He believes that inflation will be much higher than the Fed's target, and if the Fed does not take action, inflation will continue to accelerate. \"Inflation may not be that short-lived, which is a risk I am worried about.\"This will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy as soon as possible. Recently, Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, said when looking forward to the market outlook that the Fed's reduction may be greater than market expectations, and interest rates will rise faster.On the other hand, the raging Delta variant of the virus has cast a shadow over the prospects for economic recovery in the United States.The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August plummeted 11 points from the previous month to 70.2, the lowest level since December 2011. The data was well below market expectations.In addition, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on August 17 showed that U.S. retail sales decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in July, significantly exceeding market expectations for a decrease of 0.3%, while the previous value increased by 0.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddfca5645b5555b3b4a2f85e87cc9ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">After the release of this data, Goldman Sachs immediately announced that it would significantly lower its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter of the United States from the previous 8.5% to 5.5%, and at the same time lowered its GDP growth forecast for the whole year of 2021 from the previous 6.4% to 6%. The annual economy grew by 4.5%.Goldman Sachs warns that the impact of the Delta variant on the economy and inflation is tougher than expected:Consumer spending and production have both taken a hit. Spending on food and beverage, travel and other services is likely to decline in August, though we don't expect the decline to be too dramatic or too long. Production remains affected by supply chain disruptions, particularly in the automotive sector, which could mean less inventory rebuild in the third quarter.Risks are increasingAs the epidemic spreads, economic growth is expected to slow down, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening is expected to rise, the risk of uncertainty in U.S. stocks is intensifying.Michael Hartnett, global investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects U.S. stocks to see negative returns in the second half of this year, expressing concern about the threat of stagflation posed by rising inflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson also believes that U.S. stocks are on the verge of a correction. He suggested that investors should invest in stocks with lower volatility given the expected pullback, and predicted that the S&P 500 will be around 4,000 by the end of the year, implying a 10% downside at current levels.Goldman Sachs warned about the volatility of U.S. stocks.Goldman Sachs derivatives strategy officer Rocky Fishma predicted last week that the volatility of the U.S. stock market will soar next, based on the fact that the implied volatility curve of the VIX remains upward after rising 6 points in 4 days, reflecting expectations that volatility will continue to rise sharply.Additionally, the one-year VIX index futures price has risen to 26, near the top of its Q2/Q3 range, well above spot but below its Q1 median of 28.Goldman Sachs pointed out that since 1940, the only cases where the actual volatility of the S&P 500 has exceeded 26 throughout the year have been the stock market crash in 1987, the financial crisis in 2008, and the outbreak in 2020.For investors, risk hedging with diversified tools is the best way to control the pullback/retracement.CME group's latest small-scale stock index contract micro E ‑ mini futures can help investors make updated and refined risk deployment.This tool has the advantage of more flexible and smaller expansion contracts. The micro E-mini contract is only one-tenth of the size of the traditional E-mini contract. It only requires a lower margin to enter the market, as well as access to trading Opportunities for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 U.S. Index.In addition, micro E-mini futures can be used to add more granularity and allow fine-tuning of the index exposure of a certain position, expanding or downsizing the index exposure with precision. At the same time, micro E-mini futures can completely replace traditional E-mini contracts, which can flexibly manage positions when market conditions change and make it easier to obtain deep liquidity.According to reports, since its launch in 2019, the trading volume of micro E-mini stock index contracts has exceeded 800 million contracts. Global participation remained strong, with 21% of trading volume in the non-U.S. session prior to cash opening and participants from more than 190 countries. In the first half of 2021, the average daily trading volume exceeded 460,000 contracts in non-US time.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n华尔街见闻 \n2021-08-31 13:31\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks, which touched the heartstrings of the market, finally came to an end. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech temporarily relieved investors.But in the long run, the policy shift is the general trend, and U.S. stocks still face many tests.In his speech on Friday (August 27), Powell emphasized that the rise in inflation is only temporary, and made it clear for the first time that if economic progress continues, he and most Fed officials support the possibility of beginning to reduce bond buying (Taper) this year.), but tapering QE does not directly imply future rate hike time. In fact, the United States is far from meeting the conditions of rate hike, and \"there is still a long way to go before full employment\".Powell's speech not only confirmed people's widespread expectations that Taper is about to start, but also avoided the \"Taper tantrum\" in 2013. The financial market made a positive response similar to \"finally a boot landed\", thus eliminating some policy uncertainty.On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, and spot gold rebounded by more than $10 from the daily low in the short term, not only returning to the key psychological integer of $1,800, but also standing at $1,810.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ac764072a021b8d553965de4e2d0fb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The analysis pointed out that Powell's speech was in line with expectations, and he confirmed the strong job growth in recent months and the downside risks posed by the Delta variant. The bank expects the Fed to give advance notice in September and officially announce the start of reducing the scale of bond purchases in November.Specifically, Goldman Sachs predicts that the probability of the Fed's official announcement in November is 45%, the probability of an official announcement in December is 35%, and the probability of postponing it to 2022 is 20%.A bumpy road to US austerityAlthough there is no risk that the \"Sword of Damocles\" of U.S. monetary policy tightening will fall for the time being, as the U.S. economy improves, inflation is high, and employment recovers, Taper and rate hike are the general trend.Steven Bell, chief economist of BMO Global Asset Management, recently said that the market needs to recognize a fact,That is, the fire is almost out, and monetary policy is still at the level of emergency, so it is inappropriate to continue to ease monetary policy.It is worth mentioning that this time many countries have taken the lead in the United States and started the road of austerity. According to the data released by Steve Financial, an American investment bank, the global supply of broad money (M2) denominated in US dollars increased year-on-year after reaching a cyclical high of 22% in March, it fell back to slightly more than 10% in the middle of this year. level.However, the Federal Reserve stands at the sensitive crossroads of policy shift, but it still hesitates. Looking around, there are many uncertainties facing policy makers and the market.On the one hand, U.S. inflation remains high.Data released by the U.S. Bureau of National Statistics on August 11 showed that the overall CPI in the United States increased by 5.4% year-on-year in July, higher than the expected growth of 5.3%, and unchanged from the 5.4% increase in June, which is still the highest level since 2008.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c9b534228ee4e8bd63ccd14729bdca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current round of inflation is only temporary and will subside after supply catches up with demand with vaccinations and epidemic control, some Fed officials are worried that supply chain disruptions and demand growth may continue to push up Inflation until 2022 and beyond.Before the annual meeting of global central banks, Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said that the Fed is facing the challenge that price pressures have not subsided. He believes that inflation will be much higher than the Fed's target, and if the Fed does not take action, inflation will continue to accelerate. \"Inflation may not be that short-lived, which is a risk I am worried about.\"This will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy as soon as possible. Recently, Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, said when looking forward to the market outlook that the Fed's reduction may be greater than market expectations, and interest rates will rise faster.On the other hand, the raging Delta variant of the virus has cast a shadow over the prospects for economic recovery in the United States.The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August plummeted 11 points from the previous month to 70.2, the lowest level since December 2011. The data was well below market expectations.In addition, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on August 17 showed that U.S. retail sales decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in July, significantly exceeding market expectations for a decrease of 0.3%, while the previous value increased by 0.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddfca5645b5555b3b4a2f85e87cc9ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">After the release of this data, Goldman Sachs immediately announced that it would significantly lower its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter of the United States from the previous 8.5% to 5.5%, and at the same time lowered its GDP growth forecast for the whole year of 2021 from the previous 6.4% to 6%. The annual economy grew by 4.5%.Goldman Sachs warns that the impact of the Delta variant on the economy and inflation is tougher than expected:Consumer spending and production have both taken a hit. Spending on food and beverage, travel and other services is likely to decline in August, though we don't expect the decline to be too dramatic or too long. Production remains affected by supply chain disruptions, particularly in the automotive sector, which could mean less inventory rebuild in the third quarter.Risks are increasingAs the epidemic spreads, economic growth is expected to slow down, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening is expected to rise, the risk of uncertainty in U.S. stocks is intensifying.Michael Hartnett, global investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects U.S. stocks to see negative returns in the second half of this year, expressing concern about the threat of stagflation posed by rising inflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson also believes that U.S. stocks are on the verge of a correction. He suggested that investors should invest in stocks with lower volatility given the expected pullback, and predicted that the S&P 500 will be around 4,000 by the end of the year, implying a 10% downside at current levels.Goldman Sachs warned about the volatility of U.S. stocks.Goldman Sachs derivatives strategy officer Rocky Fishma predicted last week that the volatility of the U.S. stock market will soar next, based on the fact that the implied volatility curve of the VIX remains upward after rising 6 points in 4 days, reflecting expectations that volatility will continue to rise sharply.Additionally, the one-year VIX index futures price has risen to 26, near the top of its Q2/Q3 range, well above spot but below its Q1 median of 28.Goldman Sachs pointed out that since 1940, the only cases where the actual volatility of the S&P 500 has exceeded 26 throughout the year have been the stock market crash in 1987, the financial crisis in 2008, and the outbreak in 2020.For investors, risk hedging with diversified tools is the best way to control the pullback/retracement.CME group's latest small-scale stock index contract micro E ‑ mini futures can help investors make updated and refined risk deployment.This tool has the advantage of more flexible and smaller expansion contracts. The micro E-mini contract is only one-tenth of the size of the traditional E-mini contract. It only requires a lower margin to enter the market, as well as access to trading Opportunities for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 U.S. Index.In addition, micro E-mini futures can be used to add more granularity and allow fine-tuning of the index exposure of a certain position, expanding or downsizing the index exposure with precision. At the same time, micro E-mini futures can completely replace traditional E-mini contracts, which can flexibly manage positions when market conditions change and make it easier to obtain deep liquidity.According to reports, since its launch in 2019, the trading volume of micro E-mini stock index contracts has exceeded 800 million contracts. Global participation remained strong, with 21% of trading volume in the non-U.S. session prior to cash opening and participants from more than 190 countries. In the first half of 2021, the average daily trading volume exceeded 460,000 contracts in non-US time.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171411957","content_text":"面牵动市场心弦的Jackson Hole全球央行年会终于落下帷幕，美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派发言让投资者们暂时松了一口气，但从长期来看，政策转向是大势所趋，美股依然面临众多考验。\n在周五(8月27日)的讲话中，鲍威尔着重强调了通胀走高只是暂时的，并首度明确称如果经济进展持续，他与大多数美联储官员都支持可能在今年开始缩减买债（Taper），但减码QE并不直接暗示未来的加息时间。事实上，美国远未满足加息条件，“距离充分就业还有很长的路要走”。\n鲍威尔的发言既印证了人们对Taper即将开启的广泛预期，也能避免2013年时的“缩减恐慌”。金融市场作出了类似“终于有一只靴子落地”、进而消除了一部分政策不确定性的积极反应。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，现货黄金短线从日低反弹逾10美元，不仅重回1800美元关键心理整数位，还站上1810美元。\n\n高盛分析指出，鲍威尔的讲话符合预期，他确认了近几个月的强劲就业增长以及Delta变种带来的下行风险。该行预计，美联储目的是在9月给出提前通知，在11月正式宣布开始缩减购债规模。\n具体来看，高盛预计，美联储11月正式宣布的可能性为45%，12月正式宣布的可能性为35%，推迟到2022年的可能性为20%。\n美国紧缩之路坎坷\n虽然美国货币政策紧缩这把“达摩克利斯之剑”暂时没有落下的风险，但随着美国经济好转，通胀高企，就业复苏，Taper和加息是大势所趋。\nBMO Global Asset Management首席经济学家Steven Bell近日表示，市场需要认清一个事实，那就是火已经快灭了，而货币政策依然处于紧急状态的水平，继续放松货币政策是不合适的。\n值得一提的是，这一次有不少国家已经走在美国前面，开启了紧缩之路。美国投资银行斯迪富金融公司公布的数据显示，全球以美元计价的广义货币（M2）供应量同比涨幅3月达到22%的周期性高点后，在今年年中已回落至略高于10%的水平。\n而美联储站在政策转向这个敏感路口，却依然踌躇不前，放眼望去，摆在决策者和市场面前的是诸多的不确定性。\n一方面，美国通胀依然处于高位。8月11日美国国家统计局公布的数据显示，美国7月整体CPI同比增长5.4%，高于预期增长的5.3%，持平于6月5.4%的增幅，这仍然是2008年以来的最高水平。\n\n虽然鲍威尔不断强调，当前这轮通胀只是暂时的，随着疫苗接种和疫情控制，供应赶上需求后，通胀将会消退，但部分美联储官员担忧，供应链中断和需求增长可能会持续推高通胀直至2022年及以后。\n全球央行年会前，美国费城联储行长Patrick Harker表示，美联储正面临着价格压力并未消退的挑战。他认为，通胀将远高于美联储的目标，如果美联储不采取行动，通胀将继续加速，“通胀可能不是那么短暂，这是我担心的风险。”\n这将加大美联储尽快收紧货币政策的压力。近日，全球最大对冲基金桥水的联席首席投资官Greg Jensen在展望后市时表示，届时美联储减码幅度有可能比市场预期更大，利率升速也会更快。\n另一方面 ，Delta变种病毒的肆虐给美国经济复苏前景蒙上了一层阴影。\n美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值较上月骤降11点，至70.2，创2011年12月以来最低水平。数据远低于市场预期。\n另外，美国商务部8月17日公布数据显示，美国7月零售销售环比减少1.1%，大幅超过市场预期的减少0.3%，而前值为增加0.6%。\n\n这一数据公布后，高盛随即宣布将美国三季度GDP增长预期从此前的8.5%大幅下调至5.5%，同时将2021年全年GDP增长预期从此前6.4%下调至6%，预计2022年美国全年经济增长4.5%。\n高盛警告称，Delta变种病毒对经济和通胀的影响比预期更严峻：\n\n 消费者支出和生产都受到了冲击。8月份餐饮、旅游和其他服务支出可能会下降，不过我们预计下降幅度不会太大，也不会太长。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度库存重建会减少。\n\n风险正在加剧\n随着疫情蔓延，经济增速预期放缓，以及美联储货币政策收紧预期升温，美股的不确定性风险正在加剧。\n美银美林全球投资策略师Michael Hartnett预计，今年下半年美国股市将出现负回报，他对通货膨胀加剧带来的滞胀威胁表示担忧。\n摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson也认为，美股正处于回调的边缘。他建议，鉴于预期中的回调，投资者应该投资波动性较低的股票，并预测年底标普500指数会处于4000点左右，这意味当前水平下有10%的下跌空间。\n高盛则对美股的波动性作出了警告。\n高盛衍生品策略官Rocky Fishma上周预计，美股市场波动接下来会飙升，依据是VIX在4天上涨6个点后隐含波动曲线仍保持上升型，反映出波动率将继续大幅上升的预期。\n此外，一年期 VIX 指数期货价格已升至 26，接近其第二季度/第三季度范围的顶部，远高于现货，但低于其第一季度中值28。高盛指出，自从1940年以来，标普500全年实际波动率超过26的情况只有1987年股灾、2008年金融危机和2020年疫情爆发。\n对于投资者来说，运用多样化工具进行风险对冲是控制回撤的最好方法。芝商所最新小规模股指合约微型E‑迷你期货能够帮投资者进行更新精细化的风险部署。\n该工具具有更灵活、更小规模的扩充合约的优势，微型E-迷你合约仅为传统E-迷你合约规模的十分之一，其只需要较低的保证金便能进入市场，以及获取交易标普500指数、纳斯达克100指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000美国指数的机会。\n此外，微型E-迷你期货可用于增加更多粒度，并允许微调某个持仓的指数风险敞口，精确地扩大或缩小指数风险敞口规模。同时，微型E-迷你期货可完全替代传统E-迷你合约，其可在市场条件变化时灵活地管理持仓，并更容易获取深度流动性。\n据介绍，自2019年推出以来，微型E-迷你股指合约的交易量超过 8亿份合约。全球参与度依然强劲，在现金开放前的非美国时段交易量占21%，参与者来自190多个国家。2021年上半年，在非美国时间内，平均每日交易量超过46万份合同。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":818740909,"gmtCreate":1630452339301,"gmtModify":1676530304886,"author":{"id":"3576460381606543","authorId":"3576460381606543","name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576460381606543","idStr":"3576460381606543"},"htmlText":"來，回覆和點贊，謝謝","listText":"來，回覆和點贊，謝謝","text":"來，回覆和點贊，謝謝","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818740909","repostId":1171411957,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171411957","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1630387892,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171411957?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-31 13:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Powell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171411957","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"面牵动市场心弦的Jackson Hole全球央行年会终于落下帷幕，美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派发言让投资者们暂时松了一口气，但从长期来看，政策转向是大势所趋，美股依然面临众多考验。\n在周五(8月27日)的讲","content":"The Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks, which touched the heartstrings of the market, finally came to an end. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech temporarily relieved investors.But in the long run, the policy shift is the general trend, and U.S. stocks still face many tests.In his speech on Friday (August 27), Powell emphasized that the rise in inflation is only temporary, and made it clear for the first time that if economic progress continues, he and most Fed officials support the possibility of beginning to reduce bond buying (Taper) this year.), but tapering QE does not directly imply future rate hike time. In fact, the United States is far from meeting the conditions of rate hike, and \"there is still a long way to go before full employment\".Powell's speech not only confirmed people's widespread expectations that Taper is about to start, but also avoided the \"Taper tantrum\" in 2013. The financial market made a positive response similar to \"finally a boot landed\", thus eliminating some policy uncertainty.On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, and spot gold rebounded by more than $10 from the daily low in the short term, not only returning to the key psychological integer of $1,800, but also standing at $1,810.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ac764072a021b8d553965de4e2d0fb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The analysis pointed out that Powell's speech was in line with expectations, and he confirmed the strong job growth in recent months and the downside risks posed by the Delta variant. The bank expects the Fed to give advance notice in September and officially announce the start of reducing the scale of bond purchases in November.Specifically, Goldman Sachs predicts that the probability of the Fed's official announcement in November is 45%, the probability of an official announcement in December is 35%, and the probability of postponing it to 2022 is 20%.A bumpy road to US austerityAlthough there is no risk that the \"Sword of Damocles\" of U.S. monetary policy tightening will fall for the time being, as the U.S. economy improves, inflation is high, and employment recovers, Taper and rate hike are the general trend.Steven Bell, chief economist of BMO Global Asset Management, recently said that the market needs to recognize a fact,That is, the fire is almost out, and monetary policy is still at the level of emergency, so it is inappropriate to continue to ease monetary policy.It is worth mentioning that this time many countries have taken the lead in the United States and started the road of austerity. According to the data released by Steve Financial, an American investment bank, the global supply of broad money (M2) denominated in US dollars increased year-on-year after reaching a cyclical high of 22% in March, it fell back to slightly more than 10% in the middle of this year. level.However, the Federal Reserve stands at the sensitive crossroads of policy shift, but it still hesitates. Looking around, there are many uncertainties facing policy makers and the market.On the one hand, U.S. inflation remains high.Data released by the U.S. Bureau of National Statistics on August 11 showed that the overall CPI in the United States increased by 5.4% year-on-year in July, higher than the expected growth of 5.3%, and unchanged from the 5.4% increase in June, which is still the highest level since 2008.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c9b534228ee4e8bd63ccd14729bdca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current round of inflation is only temporary and will subside after supply catches up with demand with vaccinations and epidemic control, some Fed officials are worried that supply chain disruptions and demand growth may continue to push up Inflation until 2022 and beyond.Before the annual meeting of global central banks, Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said that the Fed is facing the challenge that price pressures have not subsided. He believes that inflation will be much higher than the Fed's target, and if the Fed does not take action, inflation will continue to accelerate. \"Inflation may not be that short-lived, which is a risk I am worried about.\"This will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy as soon as possible. Recently, Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, said when looking forward to the market outlook that the Fed's reduction may be greater than market expectations, and interest rates will rise faster.On the other hand, the raging Delta variant of the virus has cast a shadow over the prospects for economic recovery in the United States.The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August plummeted 11 points from the previous month to 70.2, the lowest level since December 2011. The data was well below market expectations.In addition, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on August 17 showed that U.S. retail sales decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in July, significantly exceeding market expectations for a decrease of 0.3%, while the previous value increased by 0.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddfca5645b5555b3b4a2f85e87cc9ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">After the release of this data, Goldman Sachs immediately announced that it would significantly lower its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter of the United States from the previous 8.5% to 5.5%, and at the same time lowered its GDP growth forecast for the whole year of 2021 from the previous 6.4% to 6%. The annual economy grew by 4.5%.Goldman Sachs warns that the impact of the Delta variant on the economy and inflation is tougher than expected:Consumer spending and production have both taken a hit. Spending on food and beverage, travel and other services is likely to decline in August, though we don't expect the decline to be too dramatic or too long. Production remains affected by supply chain disruptions, particularly in the automotive sector, which could mean less inventory rebuild in the third quarter.Risks are increasingAs the epidemic spreads, economic growth is expected to slow down, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening is expected to rise, the risk of uncertainty in U.S. stocks is intensifying.Michael Hartnett, global investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects U.S. stocks to see negative returns in the second half of this year, expressing concern about the threat of stagflation posed by rising inflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson also believes that U.S. stocks are on the verge of a correction. He suggested that investors should invest in stocks with lower volatility given the expected pullback, and predicted that the S&P 500 will be around 4,000 by the end of the year, implying a 10% downside at current levels.Goldman Sachs warned about the volatility of U.S. stocks.Goldman Sachs derivatives strategy officer Rocky Fishma predicted last week that the volatility of the U.S. stock market will soar next, based on the fact that the implied volatility curve of the VIX remains upward after rising 6 points in 4 days, reflecting expectations that volatility will continue to rise sharply.Additionally, the one-year VIX index futures price has risen to 26, near the top of its Q2/Q3 range, well above spot but below its Q1 median of 28.Goldman Sachs pointed out that since 1940, the only cases where the actual volatility of the S&P 500 has exceeded 26 throughout the year have been the stock market crash in 1987, the financial crisis in 2008, and the outbreak in 2020.For investors, risk hedging with diversified tools is the best way to control the pullback/retracement.CME group's latest small-scale stock index contract micro E ‑ mini futures can help investors make updated and refined risk deployment.This tool has the advantage of more flexible and smaller expansion contracts. The micro E-mini contract is only one-tenth of the size of the traditional E-mini contract. It only requires a lower margin to enter the market, as well as access to trading Opportunities for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 U.S. Index.In addition, micro E-mini futures can be used to add more granularity and allow fine-tuning of the index exposure of a certain position, expanding or downsizing the index exposure with precision. At the same time, micro E-mini futures can completely replace traditional E-mini contracts, which can flexibly manage positions when market conditions change and make it easier to obtain deep liquidity.According to reports, since its launch in 2019, the trading volume of micro E-mini stock index contracts has exceeded 800 million contracts. Global participation remained strong, with 21% of trading volume in the non-U.S. session prior to cash opening and participants from more than 190 countries. In the first half of 2021, the average daily trading volume exceeded 460,000 contracts in non-US time.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n华尔街见闻 \n2021-08-31 13:31\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks, which touched the heartstrings of the market, finally came to an end. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech temporarily relieved investors.But in the long run, the policy shift is the general trend, and U.S. stocks still face many tests.In his speech on Friday (August 27), Powell emphasized that the rise in inflation is only temporary, and made it clear for the first time that if economic progress continues, he and most Fed officials support the possibility of beginning to reduce bond buying (Taper) this year.), but tapering QE does not directly imply future rate hike time. In fact, the United States is far from meeting the conditions of rate hike, and \"there is still a long way to go before full employment\".Powell's speech not only confirmed people's widespread expectations that Taper is about to start, but also avoided the \"Taper tantrum\" in 2013. The financial market made a positive response similar to \"finally a boot landed\", thus eliminating some policy uncertainty.On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, and spot gold rebounded by more than $10 from the daily low in the short term, not only returning to the key psychological integer of $1,800, but also standing at $1,810.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ac764072a021b8d553965de4e2d0fb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The analysis pointed out that Powell's speech was in line with expectations, and he confirmed the strong job growth in recent months and the downside risks posed by the Delta variant. The bank expects the Fed to give advance notice in September and officially announce the start of reducing the scale of bond purchases in November.Specifically, Goldman Sachs predicts that the probability of the Fed's official announcement in November is 45%, the probability of an official announcement in December is 35%, and the probability of postponing it to 2022 is 20%.A bumpy road to US austerityAlthough there is no risk that the \"Sword of Damocles\" of U.S. monetary policy tightening will fall for the time being, as the U.S. economy improves, inflation is high, and employment recovers, Taper and rate hike are the general trend.Steven Bell, chief economist of BMO Global Asset Management, recently said that the market needs to recognize a fact,That is, the fire is almost out, and monetary policy is still at the level of emergency, so it is inappropriate to continue to ease monetary policy.It is worth mentioning that this time many countries have taken the lead in the United States and started the road of austerity. According to the data released by Steve Financial, an American investment bank, the global supply of broad money (M2) denominated in US dollars increased year-on-year after reaching a cyclical high of 22% in March, it fell back to slightly more than 10% in the middle of this year. level.However, the Federal Reserve stands at the sensitive crossroads of policy shift, but it still hesitates. Looking around, there are many uncertainties facing policy makers and the market.On the one hand, U.S. inflation remains high.Data released by the U.S. Bureau of National Statistics on August 11 showed that the overall CPI in the United States increased by 5.4% year-on-year in July, higher than the expected growth of 5.3%, and unchanged from the 5.4% increase in June, which is still the highest level since 2008.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c9b534228ee4e8bd63ccd14729bdca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current round of inflation is only temporary and will subside after supply catches up with demand with vaccinations and epidemic control, some Fed officials are worried that supply chain disruptions and demand growth may continue to push up Inflation until 2022 and beyond.Before the annual meeting of global central banks, Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said that the Fed is facing the challenge that price pressures have not subsided. He believes that inflation will be much higher than the Fed's target, and if the Fed does not take action, inflation will continue to accelerate. \"Inflation may not be that short-lived, which is a risk I am worried about.\"This will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy as soon as possible. Recently, Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, said when looking forward to the market outlook that the Fed's reduction may be greater than market expectations, and interest rates will rise faster.On the other hand, the raging Delta variant of the virus has cast a shadow over the prospects for economic recovery in the United States.The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August plummeted 11 points from the previous month to 70.2, the lowest level since December 2011. The data was well below market expectations.In addition, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on August 17 showed that U.S. retail sales decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in July, significantly exceeding market expectations for a decrease of 0.3%, while the previous value increased by 0.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddfca5645b5555b3b4a2f85e87cc9ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">After the release of this data, Goldman Sachs immediately announced that it would significantly lower its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter of the United States from the previous 8.5% to 5.5%, and at the same time lowered its GDP growth forecast for the whole year of 2021 from the previous 6.4% to 6%. The annual economy grew by 4.5%.Goldman Sachs warns that the impact of the Delta variant on the economy and inflation is tougher than expected:Consumer spending and production have both taken a hit. Spending on food and beverage, travel and other services is likely to decline in August, though we don't expect the decline to be too dramatic or too long. Production remains affected by supply chain disruptions, particularly in the automotive sector, which could mean less inventory rebuild in the third quarter.Risks are increasingAs the epidemic spreads, economic growth is expected to slow down, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening is expected to rise, the risk of uncertainty in U.S. stocks is intensifying.Michael Hartnett, global investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects U.S. stocks to see negative returns in the second half of this year, expressing concern about the threat of stagflation posed by rising inflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson also believes that U.S. stocks are on the verge of a correction. He suggested that investors should invest in stocks with lower volatility given the expected pullback, and predicted that the S&P 500 will be around 4,000 by the end of the year, implying a 10% downside at current levels.Goldman Sachs warned about the volatility of U.S. stocks.Goldman Sachs derivatives strategy officer Rocky Fishma predicted last week that the volatility of the U.S. stock market will soar next, based on the fact that the implied volatility curve of the VIX remains upward after rising 6 points in 4 days, reflecting expectations that volatility will continue to rise sharply.Additionally, the one-year VIX index futures price has risen to 26, near the top of its Q2/Q3 range, well above spot but below its Q1 median of 28.Goldman Sachs pointed out that since 1940, the only cases where the actual volatility of the S&P 500 has exceeded 26 throughout the year have been the stock market crash in 1987, the financial crisis in 2008, and the outbreak in 2020.For investors, risk hedging with diversified tools is the best way to control the pullback/retracement.CME group's latest small-scale stock index contract micro E ‑ mini futures can help investors make updated and refined risk deployment.This tool has the advantage of more flexible and smaller expansion contracts. The micro E-mini contract is only one-tenth of the size of the traditional E-mini contract. It only requires a lower margin to enter the market, as well as access to trading Opportunities for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 U.S. Index.In addition, micro E-mini futures can be used to add more granularity and allow fine-tuning of the index exposure of a certain position, expanding or downsizing the index exposure with precision. At the same time, micro E-mini futures can completely replace traditional E-mini contracts, which can flexibly manage positions when market conditions change and make it easier to obtain deep liquidity.According to reports, since its launch in 2019, the trading volume of micro E-mini stock index contracts has exceeded 800 million contracts. Global participation remained strong, with 21% of trading volume in the non-U.S. session prior to cash opening and participants from more than 190 countries. In the first half of 2021, the average daily trading volume exceeded 460,000 contracts in non-US time.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171411957","content_text":"面牵动市场心弦的Jackson Hole全球央行年会终于落下帷幕，美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派发言让投资者们暂时松了一口气，但从长期来看，政策转向是大势所趋，美股依然面临众多考验。\n在周五(8月27日)的讲话中，鲍威尔着重强调了通胀走高只是暂时的，并首度明确称如果经济进展持续，他与大多数美联储官员都支持可能在今年开始缩减买债（Taper），但减码QE并不直接暗示未来的加息时间。事实上，美国远未满足加息条件，“距离充分就业还有很长的路要走”。\n鲍威尔的发言既印证了人们对Taper即将开启的广泛预期，也能避免2013年时的“缩减恐慌”。金融市场作出了类似“终于有一只靴子落地”、进而消除了一部分政策不确定性的积极反应。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，现货黄金短线从日低反弹逾10美元，不仅重回1800美元关键心理整数位，还站上1810美元。\n\n高盛分析指出，鲍威尔的讲话符合预期，他确认了近几个月的强劲就业增长以及Delta变种带来的下行风险。该行预计，美联储目的是在9月给出提前通知，在11月正式宣布开始缩减购债规模。\n具体来看，高盛预计，美联储11月正式宣布的可能性为45%，12月正式宣布的可能性为35%，推迟到2022年的可能性为20%。\n美国紧缩之路坎坷\n虽然美国货币政策紧缩这把“达摩克利斯之剑”暂时没有落下的风险，但随着美国经济好转，通胀高企，就业复苏，Taper和加息是大势所趋。\nBMO Global Asset Management首席经济学家Steven Bell近日表示，市场需要认清一个事实，那就是火已经快灭了，而货币政策依然处于紧急状态的水平，继续放松货币政策是不合适的。\n值得一提的是，这一次有不少国家已经走在美国前面，开启了紧缩之路。美国投资银行斯迪富金融公司公布的数据显示，全球以美元计价的广义货币（M2）供应量同比涨幅3月达到22%的周期性高点后，在今年年中已回落至略高于10%的水平。\n而美联储站在政策转向这个敏感路口，却依然踌躇不前，放眼望去，摆在决策者和市场面前的是诸多的不确定性。\n一方面，美国通胀依然处于高位。8月11日美国国家统计局公布的数据显示，美国7月整体CPI同比增长5.4%，高于预期增长的5.3%，持平于6月5.4%的增幅，这仍然是2008年以来的最高水平。\n\n虽然鲍威尔不断强调，当前这轮通胀只是暂时的，随着疫苗接种和疫情控制，供应赶上需求后，通胀将会消退，但部分美联储官员担忧，供应链中断和需求增长可能会持续推高通胀直至2022年及以后。\n全球央行年会前，美国费城联储行长Patrick Harker表示，美联储正面临着价格压力并未消退的挑战。他认为，通胀将远高于美联储的目标，如果美联储不采取行动，通胀将继续加速，“通胀可能不是那么短暂，这是我担心的风险。”\n这将加大美联储尽快收紧货币政策的压力。近日，全球最大对冲基金桥水的联席首席投资官Greg Jensen在展望后市时表示，届时美联储减码幅度有可能比市场预期更大，利率升速也会更快。\n另一方面 ，Delta变种病毒的肆虐给美国经济复苏前景蒙上了一层阴影。\n美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值较上月骤降11点，至70.2，创2011年12月以来最低水平。数据远低于市场预期。\n另外，美国商务部8月17日公布数据显示，美国7月零售销售环比减少1.1%，大幅超过市场预期的减少0.3%，而前值为增加0.6%。\n\n这一数据公布后，高盛随即宣布将美国三季度GDP增长预期从此前的8.5%大幅下调至5.5%，同时将2021年全年GDP增长预期从此前6.4%下调至6%，预计2022年美国全年经济增长4.5%。\n高盛警告称，Delta变种病毒对经济和通胀的影响比预期更严峻：\n\n 消费者支出和生产都受到了冲击。8月份餐饮、旅游和其他服务支出可能会下降，不过我们预计下降幅度不会太大，也不会太长。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度库存重建会减少。\n\n风险正在加剧\n随着疫情蔓延，经济增速预期放缓，以及美联储货币政策收紧预期升温，美股的不确定性风险正在加剧。\n美银美林全球投资策略师Michael Hartnett预计，今年下半年美国股市将出现负回报，他对通货膨胀加剧带来的滞胀威胁表示担忧。\n摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson也认为，美股正处于回调的边缘。他建议，鉴于预期中的回调，投资者应该投资波动性较低的股票，并预测年底标普500指数会处于4000点左右，这意味当前水平下有10%的下跌空间。\n高盛则对美股的波动性作出了警告。\n高盛衍生品策略官Rocky Fishma上周预计，美股市场波动接下来会飙升，依据是VIX在4天上涨6个点后隐含波动曲线仍保持上升型，反映出波动率将继续大幅上升的预期。\n此外，一年期 VIX 指数期货价格已升至 26，接近其第二季度/第三季度范围的顶部，远高于现货，但低于其第一季度中值28。高盛指出，自从1940年以来，标普500全年实际波动率超过26的情况只有1987年股灾、2008年金融危机和2020年疫情爆发。\n对于投资者来说，运用多样化工具进行风险对冲是控制回撤的最好方法。芝商所最新小规模股指合约微型E‑迷你期货能够帮投资者进行更新精细化的风险部署。\n该工具具有更灵活、更小规模的扩充合约的优势，微型E-迷你合约仅为传统E-迷你合约规模的十分之一，其只需要较低的保证金便能进入市场，以及获取交易标普500指数、纳斯达克100指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000美国指数的机会。\n此外，微型E-迷你期货可用于增加更多粒度，并允许微调某个持仓的指数风险敞口，精确地扩大或缩小指数风险敞口规模。同时，微型E-迷你期货可完全替代传统E-迷你合约，其可在市场条件变化时灵活地管理持仓，并更容易获取深度流动性。\n据介绍，自2019年推出以来，微型E-迷你股指合约的交易量超过 8亿份合约。全球参与度依然强劲，在现金开放前的非美国时段交易量占21%，参与者来自190多个国家。2021年上半年，在非美国时间内，平均每日交易量超过46万份合同。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5710360,"gmtCreate":1630452347252,"gmtModify":1663233193947,"authorId":3576460381606543,"author":{"id":3576460381606543,"idStr":"3576460381606543","authorId":3576460381606543,"name":"CKWAI","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/114d4a21d215b59ce4a06920df73aed5","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":818740909,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"谢谢","text":"谢谢","html":"谢谢"},{"id":5710597,"gmtCreate":1630453342653,"gmtModify":1663233193142,"authorId":3574387078391491,"author":{"id":3574387078391491,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorId":3574387078391491,"name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":818740909,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"?","text":"?","html":"?"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":818723504,"gmtCreate":1630451496408,"gmtModify":1676530304521,"author":{"id":"4088296979073510","authorId":"4088296979073510","name":"龙腾虎跃168","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4088296979073510","idStr":"4088296979073510"},"htmlText":"長期持有","listText":"長期持有","text":"長期持有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818723504","repostId":1171411957,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171411957","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1630387892,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171411957?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-31 13:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Powell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171411957","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"面牵动市场心弦的Jackson Hole全球央行年会终于落下帷幕，美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派发言让投资者们暂时松了一口气，但从长期来看，政策转向是大势所趋，美股依然面临众多考验。\n在周五(8月27日)的讲","content":"The Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks, which touched the heartstrings of the market, finally came to an end. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech temporarily relieved investors.But in the long run, the policy shift is the general trend, and U.S. stocks still face many tests.In his speech on Friday (August 27), Powell emphasized that the rise in inflation is only temporary, and made it clear for the first time that if economic progress continues, he and most Fed officials support the possibility of beginning to reduce bond buying (Taper) this year.), but tapering QE does not directly imply future rate hike time. In fact, the United States is far from meeting the conditions of rate hike, and \"there is still a long way to go before full employment\".Powell's speech not only confirmed people's widespread expectations that Taper is about to start, but also avoided the \"Taper tantrum\" in 2013. The financial market made a positive response similar to \"finally a boot landed\", thus eliminating some policy uncertainty.On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, and spot gold rebounded by more than $10 from the daily low in the short term, not only returning to the key psychological integer of $1,800, but also standing at $1,810.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ac764072a021b8d553965de4e2d0fb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The analysis pointed out that Powell's speech was in line with expectations, and he confirmed the strong job growth in recent months and the downside risks posed by the Delta variant. The bank expects the Fed to give advance notice in September and officially announce the start of reducing the scale of bond purchases in November.Specifically, Goldman Sachs predicts that the probability of the Fed's official announcement in November is 45%, the probability of an official announcement in December is 35%, and the probability of postponing it to 2022 is 20%.A bumpy road to US austerityAlthough there is no risk that the \"Sword of Damocles\" of U.S. monetary policy tightening will fall for the time being, as the U.S. economy improves, inflation is high, and employment recovers, Taper and rate hike are the general trend.Steven Bell, chief economist of BMO Global Asset Management, recently said that the market needs to recognize a fact,That is, the fire is almost out, and monetary policy is still at the level of emergency, so it is inappropriate to continue to ease monetary policy.It is worth mentioning that this time many countries have taken the lead in the United States and started the road of austerity. According to the data released by Steve Financial, an American investment bank, the global supply of broad money (M2) denominated in US dollars increased year-on-year after reaching a cyclical high of 22% in March, it fell back to slightly more than 10% in the middle of this year. level.However, the Federal Reserve stands at the sensitive crossroads of policy shift, but it still hesitates. Looking around, there are many uncertainties facing policy makers and the market.On the one hand, U.S. inflation remains high.Data released by the U.S. Bureau of National Statistics on August 11 showed that the overall CPI in the United States increased by 5.4% year-on-year in July, higher than the expected growth of 5.3%, and unchanged from the 5.4% increase in June, which is still the highest level since 2008.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c9b534228ee4e8bd63ccd14729bdca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current round of inflation is only temporary and will subside after supply catches up with demand with vaccinations and epidemic control, some Fed officials are worried that supply chain disruptions and demand growth may continue to push up Inflation until 2022 and beyond.Before the annual meeting of global central banks, Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said that the Fed is facing the challenge that price pressures have not subsided. He believes that inflation will be much higher than the Fed's target, and if the Fed does not take action, inflation will continue to accelerate. \"Inflation may not be that short-lived, which is a risk I am worried about.\"This will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy as soon as possible. Recently, Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, said when looking forward to the market outlook that the Fed's reduction may be greater than market expectations, and interest rates will rise faster.On the other hand, the raging Delta variant of the virus has cast a shadow over the prospects for economic recovery in the United States.The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August plummeted 11 points from the previous month to 70.2, the lowest level since December 2011. The data was well below market expectations.In addition, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on August 17 showed that U.S. retail sales decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in July, significantly exceeding market expectations for a decrease of 0.3%, while the previous value increased by 0.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddfca5645b5555b3b4a2f85e87cc9ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">After the release of this data, Goldman Sachs immediately announced that it would significantly lower its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter of the United States from the previous 8.5% to 5.5%, and at the same time lowered its GDP growth forecast for the whole year of 2021 from the previous 6.4% to 6%. The annual economy grew by 4.5%.Goldman Sachs warns that the impact of the Delta variant on the economy and inflation is tougher than expected:Consumer spending and production have both taken a hit. Spending on food and beverage, travel and other services is likely to decline in August, though we don't expect the decline to be too dramatic or too long. Production remains affected by supply chain disruptions, particularly in the automotive sector, which could mean less inventory rebuild in the third quarter.Risks are increasingAs the epidemic spreads, economic growth is expected to slow down, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening is expected to rise, the risk of uncertainty in U.S. stocks is intensifying.Michael Hartnett, global investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects U.S. stocks to see negative returns in the second half of this year, expressing concern about the threat of stagflation posed by rising inflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson also believes that U.S. stocks are on the verge of a correction. He suggested that investors should invest in stocks with lower volatility given the expected pullback, and predicted that the S&P 500 will be around 4,000 by the end of the year, implying a 10% downside at current levels.Goldman Sachs warned about the volatility of U.S. stocks.Goldman Sachs derivatives strategy officer Rocky Fishma predicted last week that the volatility of the U.S. stock market will soar next, based on the fact that the implied volatility curve of the VIX remains upward after rising 6 points in 4 days, reflecting expectations that volatility will continue to rise sharply.Additionally, the one-year VIX index futures price has risen to 26, near the top of its Q2/Q3 range, well above spot but below its Q1 median of 28.Goldman Sachs pointed out that since 1940, the only cases where the actual volatility of the S&P 500 has exceeded 26 throughout the year have been the stock market crash in 1987, the financial crisis in 2008, and the outbreak in 2020.For investors, risk hedging with diversified tools is the best way to control the pullback/retracement.CME group's latest small-scale stock index contract micro E ‑ mini futures can help investors make updated and refined risk deployment.This tool has the advantage of more flexible and smaller expansion contracts. The micro E-mini contract is only one-tenth of the size of the traditional E-mini contract. It only requires a lower margin to enter the market, as well as access to trading Opportunities for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 U.S. Index.In addition, micro E-mini futures can be used to add more granularity and allow fine-tuning of the index exposure of a certain position, expanding or downsizing the index exposure with precision. At the same time, micro E-mini futures can completely replace traditional E-mini contracts, which can flexibly manage positions when market conditions change and make it easier to obtain deep liquidity.According to reports, since its launch in 2019, the trading volume of micro E-mini stock index contracts has exceeded 800 million contracts. Global participation remained strong, with 21% of trading volume in the non-U.S. session prior to cash opening and participants from more than 190 countries. In the first half of 2021, the average daily trading volume exceeded 460,000 contracts in non-US time.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n华尔街见闻 \n2021-08-31 13:31\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks, which touched the heartstrings of the market, finally came to an end. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech temporarily relieved investors.But in the long run, the policy shift is the general trend, and U.S. stocks still face many tests.In his speech on Friday (August 27), Powell emphasized that the rise in inflation is only temporary, and made it clear for the first time that if economic progress continues, he and most Fed officials support the possibility of beginning to reduce bond buying (Taper) this year.), but tapering QE does not directly imply future rate hike time. In fact, the United States is far from meeting the conditions of rate hike, and \"there is still a long way to go before full employment\".Powell's speech not only confirmed people's widespread expectations that Taper is about to start, but also avoided the \"Taper tantrum\" in 2013. The financial market made a positive response similar to \"finally a boot landed\", thus eliminating some policy uncertainty.On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, and spot gold rebounded by more than $10 from the daily low in the short term, not only returning to the key psychological integer of $1,800, but also standing at $1,810.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ac764072a021b8d553965de4e2d0fb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The analysis pointed out that Powell's speech was in line with expectations, and he confirmed the strong job growth in recent months and the downside risks posed by the Delta variant. The bank expects the Fed to give advance notice in September and officially announce the start of reducing the scale of bond purchases in November.Specifically, Goldman Sachs predicts that the probability of the Fed's official announcement in November is 45%, the probability of an official announcement in December is 35%, and the probability of postponing it to 2022 is 20%.A bumpy road to US austerityAlthough there is no risk that the \"Sword of Damocles\" of U.S. monetary policy tightening will fall for the time being, as the U.S. economy improves, inflation is high, and employment recovers, Taper and rate hike are the general trend.Steven Bell, chief economist of BMO Global Asset Management, recently said that the market needs to recognize a fact,That is, the fire is almost out, and monetary policy is still at the level of emergency, so it is inappropriate to continue to ease monetary policy.It is worth mentioning that this time many countries have taken the lead in the United States and started the road of austerity. According to the data released by Steve Financial, an American investment bank, the global supply of broad money (M2) denominated in US dollars increased year-on-year after reaching a cyclical high of 22% in March, it fell back to slightly more than 10% in the middle of this year. level.However, the Federal Reserve stands at the sensitive crossroads of policy shift, but it still hesitates. Looking around, there are many uncertainties facing policy makers and the market.On the one hand, U.S. inflation remains high.Data released by the U.S. Bureau of National Statistics on August 11 showed that the overall CPI in the United States increased by 5.4% year-on-year in July, higher than the expected growth of 5.3%, and unchanged from the 5.4% increase in June, which is still the highest level since 2008.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c9b534228ee4e8bd63ccd14729bdca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current round of inflation is only temporary and will subside after supply catches up with demand with vaccinations and epidemic control, some Fed officials are worried that supply chain disruptions and demand growth may continue to push up Inflation until 2022 and beyond.Before the annual meeting of global central banks, Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said that the Fed is facing the challenge that price pressures have not subsided. He believes that inflation will be much higher than the Fed's target, and if the Fed does not take action, inflation will continue to accelerate. \"Inflation may not be that short-lived, which is a risk I am worried about.\"This will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy as soon as possible. Recently, Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, said when looking forward to the market outlook that the Fed's reduction may be greater than market expectations, and interest rates will rise faster.On the other hand, the raging Delta variant of the virus has cast a shadow over the prospects for economic recovery in the United States.The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August plummeted 11 points from the previous month to 70.2, the lowest level since December 2011. The data was well below market expectations.In addition, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on August 17 showed that U.S. retail sales decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in July, significantly exceeding market expectations for a decrease of 0.3%, while the previous value increased by 0.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddfca5645b5555b3b4a2f85e87cc9ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">After the release of this data, Goldman Sachs immediately announced that it would significantly lower its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter of the United States from the previous 8.5% to 5.5%, and at the same time lowered its GDP growth forecast for the whole year of 2021 from the previous 6.4% to 6%. The annual economy grew by 4.5%.Goldman Sachs warns that the impact of the Delta variant on the economy and inflation is tougher than expected:Consumer spending and production have both taken a hit. Spending on food and beverage, travel and other services is likely to decline in August, though we don't expect the decline to be too dramatic or too long. Production remains affected by supply chain disruptions, particularly in the automotive sector, which could mean less inventory rebuild in the third quarter.Risks are increasingAs the epidemic spreads, economic growth is expected to slow down, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening is expected to rise, the risk of uncertainty in U.S. stocks is intensifying.Michael Hartnett, global investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects U.S. stocks to see negative returns in the second half of this year, expressing concern about the threat of stagflation posed by rising inflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson also believes that U.S. stocks are on the verge of a correction. He suggested that investors should invest in stocks with lower volatility given the expected pullback, and predicted that the S&P 500 will be around 4,000 by the end of the year, implying a 10% downside at current levels.Goldman Sachs warned about the volatility of U.S. stocks.Goldman Sachs derivatives strategy officer Rocky Fishma predicted last week that the volatility of the U.S. stock market will soar next, based on the fact that the implied volatility curve of the VIX remains upward after rising 6 points in 4 days, reflecting expectations that volatility will continue to rise sharply.Additionally, the one-year VIX index futures price has risen to 26, near the top of its Q2/Q3 range, well above spot but below its Q1 median of 28.Goldman Sachs pointed out that since 1940, the only cases where the actual volatility of the S&P 500 has exceeded 26 throughout the year have been the stock market crash in 1987, the financial crisis in 2008, and the outbreak in 2020.For investors, risk hedging with diversified tools is the best way to control the pullback/retracement.CME group's latest small-scale stock index contract micro E ‑ mini futures can help investors make updated and refined risk deployment.This tool has the advantage of more flexible and smaller expansion contracts. The micro E-mini contract is only one-tenth of the size of the traditional E-mini contract. It only requires a lower margin to enter the market, as well as access to trading Opportunities for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 U.S. Index.In addition, micro E-mini futures can be used to add more granularity and allow fine-tuning of the index exposure of a certain position, expanding or downsizing the index exposure with precision. At the same time, micro E-mini futures can completely replace traditional E-mini contracts, which can flexibly manage positions when market conditions change and make it easier to obtain deep liquidity.According to reports, since its launch in 2019, the trading volume of micro E-mini stock index contracts has exceeded 800 million contracts. Global participation remained strong, with 21% of trading volume in the non-U.S. session prior to cash opening and participants from more than 190 countries. In the first half of 2021, the average daily trading volume exceeded 460,000 contracts in non-US time.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171411957","content_text":"面牵动市场心弦的Jackson Hole全球央行年会终于落下帷幕，美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派发言让投资者们暂时松了一口气，但从长期来看，政策转向是大势所趋，美股依然面临众多考验。\n在周五(8月27日)的讲话中，鲍威尔着重强调了通胀走高只是暂时的，并首度明确称如果经济进展持续，他与大多数美联储官员都支持可能在今年开始缩减买债（Taper），但减码QE并不直接暗示未来的加息时间。事实上，美国远未满足加息条件，“距离充分就业还有很长的路要走”。\n鲍威尔的发言既印证了人们对Taper即将开启的广泛预期，也能避免2013年时的“缩减恐慌”。金融市场作出了类似“终于有一只靴子落地”、进而消除了一部分政策不确定性的积极反应。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，现货黄金短线从日低反弹逾10美元，不仅重回1800美元关键心理整数位，还站上1810美元。\n\n高盛分析指出，鲍威尔的讲话符合预期，他确认了近几个月的强劲就业增长以及Delta变种带来的下行风险。该行预计，美联储目的是在9月给出提前通知，在11月正式宣布开始缩减购债规模。\n具体来看，高盛预计，美联储11月正式宣布的可能性为45%，12月正式宣布的可能性为35%，推迟到2022年的可能性为20%。\n美国紧缩之路坎坷\n虽然美国货币政策紧缩这把“达摩克利斯之剑”暂时没有落下的风险，但随着美国经济好转，通胀高企，就业复苏，Taper和加息是大势所趋。\nBMO Global Asset Management首席经济学家Steven Bell近日表示，市场需要认清一个事实，那就是火已经快灭了，而货币政策依然处于紧急状态的水平，继续放松货币政策是不合适的。\n值得一提的是，这一次有不少国家已经走在美国前面，开启了紧缩之路。美国投资银行斯迪富金融公司公布的数据显示，全球以美元计价的广义货币（M2）供应量同比涨幅3月达到22%的周期性高点后，在今年年中已回落至略高于10%的水平。\n而美联储站在政策转向这个敏感路口，却依然踌躇不前，放眼望去，摆在决策者和市场面前的是诸多的不确定性。\n一方面，美国通胀依然处于高位。8月11日美国国家统计局公布的数据显示，美国7月整体CPI同比增长5.4%，高于预期增长的5.3%，持平于6月5.4%的增幅，这仍然是2008年以来的最高水平。\n\n虽然鲍威尔不断强调，当前这轮通胀只是暂时的，随着疫苗接种和疫情控制，供应赶上需求后，通胀将会消退，但部分美联储官员担忧，供应链中断和需求增长可能会持续推高通胀直至2022年及以后。\n全球央行年会前，美国费城联储行长Patrick Harker表示，美联储正面临着价格压力并未消退的挑战。他认为，通胀将远高于美联储的目标，如果美联储不采取行动，通胀将继续加速，“通胀可能不是那么短暂，这是我担心的风险。”\n这将加大美联储尽快收紧货币政策的压力。近日，全球最大对冲基金桥水的联席首席投资官Greg Jensen在展望后市时表示，届时美联储减码幅度有可能比市场预期更大，利率升速也会更快。\n另一方面 ，Delta变种病毒的肆虐给美国经济复苏前景蒙上了一层阴影。\n美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值较上月骤降11点，至70.2，创2011年12月以来最低水平。数据远低于市场预期。\n另外，美国商务部8月17日公布数据显示，美国7月零售销售环比减少1.1%，大幅超过市场预期的减少0.3%，而前值为增加0.6%。\n\n这一数据公布后，高盛随即宣布将美国三季度GDP增长预期从此前的8.5%大幅下调至5.5%，同时将2021年全年GDP增长预期从此前6.4%下调至6%，预计2022年美国全年经济增长4.5%。\n高盛警告称，Delta变种病毒对经济和通胀的影响比预期更严峻：\n\n 消费者支出和生产都受到了冲击。8月份餐饮、旅游和其他服务支出可能会下降，不过我们预计下降幅度不会太大，也不会太长。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度库存重建会减少。\n\n风险正在加剧\n随着疫情蔓延，经济增速预期放缓，以及美联储货币政策收紧预期升温，美股的不确定性风险正在加剧。\n美银美林全球投资策略师Michael Hartnett预计，今年下半年美国股市将出现负回报，他对通货膨胀加剧带来的滞胀威胁表示担忧。\n摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson也认为，美股正处于回调的边缘。他建议，鉴于预期中的回调，投资者应该投资波动性较低的股票，并预测年底标普500指数会处于4000点左右，这意味当前水平下有10%的下跌空间。\n高盛则对美股的波动性作出了警告。\n高盛衍生品策略官Rocky Fishma上周预计，美股市场波动接下来会飙升，依据是VIX在4天上涨6个点后隐含波动曲线仍保持上升型，反映出波动率将继续大幅上升的预期。\n此外，一年期 VIX 指数期货价格已升至 26，接近其第二季度/第三季度范围的顶部，远高于现货，但低于其第一季度中值28。高盛指出，自从1940年以来，标普500全年实际波动率超过26的情况只有1987年股灾、2008年金融危机和2020年疫情爆发。\n对于投资者来说，运用多样化工具进行风险对冲是控制回撤的最好方法。芝商所最新小规模股指合约微型E‑迷你期货能够帮投资者进行更新精细化的风险部署。\n该工具具有更灵活、更小规模的扩充合约的优势，微型E-迷你合约仅为传统E-迷你合约规模的十分之一，其只需要较低的保证金便能进入市场，以及获取交易标普500指数、纳斯达克100指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000美国指数的机会。\n此外，微型E-迷你期货可用于增加更多粒度，并允许微调某个持仓的指数风险敞口，精确地扩大或缩小指数风险敞口规模。同时，微型E-迷你期货可完全替代传统E-迷你合约，其可在市场条件变化时灵活地管理持仓，并更容易获取深度流动性。\n据介绍，自2019年推出以来，微型E-迷你股指合约的交易量超过 8亿份合约。全球参与度依然强劲，在现金开放前的非美国时段交易量占21%，参与者来自190多个国家。2021年上半年，在非美国时间内，平均每日交易量超过46万份合同。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":818723032,"gmtCreate":1630451460226,"gmtModify":1676530304490,"author":{"id":"4088296979073510","authorId":"4088296979073510","name":"龙腾虎跃168","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4088296979073510","idStr":"4088296979073510"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818723032","repostId":1171411957,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171411957","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1630387892,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171411957?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-31 13:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Powell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171411957","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"面牵动市场心弦的Jackson Hole全球央行年会终于落下帷幕，美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派发言让投资者们暂时松了一口气，但从长期来看，政策转向是大势所趋，美股依然面临众多考验。\n在周五(8月27日)的讲","content":"The Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks, which touched the heartstrings of the market, finally came to an end. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech temporarily relieved investors.But in the long run, the policy shift is the general trend, and U.S. stocks still face many tests.In his speech on Friday (August 27), Powell emphasized that the rise in inflation is only temporary, and made it clear for the first time that if economic progress continues, he and most Fed officials support the possibility of beginning to reduce bond buying (Taper) this year.), but tapering QE does not directly imply future rate hike time. In fact, the United States is far from meeting the conditions of rate hike, and \"there is still a long way to go before full employment\".Powell's speech not only confirmed people's widespread expectations that Taper is about to start, but also avoided the \"Taper tantrum\" in 2013. The financial market made a positive response similar to \"finally a boot landed\", thus eliminating some policy uncertainty.On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, and spot gold rebounded by more than $10 from the daily low in the short term, not only returning to the key psychological integer of $1,800, but also standing at $1,810.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ac764072a021b8d553965de4e2d0fb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The analysis pointed out that Powell's speech was in line with expectations, and he confirmed the strong job growth in recent months and the downside risks posed by the Delta variant. The bank expects the Fed to give advance notice in September and officially announce the start of reducing the scale of bond purchases in November.Specifically, Goldman Sachs predicts that the probability of the Fed's official announcement in November is 45%, the probability of an official announcement in December is 35%, and the probability of postponing it to 2022 is 20%.A bumpy road to US austerityAlthough there is no risk that the \"Sword of Damocles\" of U.S. monetary policy tightening will fall for the time being, as the U.S. economy improves, inflation is high, and employment recovers, Taper and rate hike are the general trend.Steven Bell, chief economist of BMO Global Asset Management, recently said that the market needs to recognize a fact,That is, the fire is almost out, and monetary policy is still at the level of emergency, so it is inappropriate to continue to ease monetary policy.It is worth mentioning that this time many countries have taken the lead in the United States and started the road of austerity. According to the data released by Steve Financial, an American investment bank, the global supply of broad money (M2) denominated in US dollars increased year-on-year after reaching a cyclical high of 22% in March, it fell back to slightly more than 10% in the middle of this year. level.However, the Federal Reserve stands at the sensitive crossroads of policy shift, but it still hesitates. Looking around, there are many uncertainties facing policy makers and the market.On the one hand, U.S. inflation remains high.Data released by the U.S. Bureau of National Statistics on August 11 showed that the overall CPI in the United States increased by 5.4% year-on-year in July, higher than the expected growth of 5.3%, and unchanged from the 5.4% increase in June, which is still the highest level since 2008.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c9b534228ee4e8bd63ccd14729bdca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current round of inflation is only temporary and will subside after supply catches up with demand with vaccinations and epidemic control, some Fed officials are worried that supply chain disruptions and demand growth may continue to push up Inflation until 2022 and beyond.Before the annual meeting of global central banks, Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said that the Fed is facing the challenge that price pressures have not subsided. He believes that inflation will be much higher than the Fed's target, and if the Fed does not take action, inflation will continue to accelerate. \"Inflation may not be that short-lived, which is a risk I am worried about.\"This will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy as soon as possible. Recently, Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, said when looking forward to the market outlook that the Fed's reduction may be greater than market expectations, and interest rates will rise faster.On the other hand, the raging Delta variant of the virus has cast a shadow over the prospects for economic recovery in the United States.The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August plummeted 11 points from the previous month to 70.2, the lowest level since December 2011. The data was well below market expectations.In addition, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on August 17 showed that U.S. retail sales decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in July, significantly exceeding market expectations for a decrease of 0.3%, while the previous value increased by 0.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddfca5645b5555b3b4a2f85e87cc9ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">After the release of this data, Goldman Sachs immediately announced that it would significantly lower its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter of the United States from the previous 8.5% to 5.5%, and at the same time lowered its GDP growth forecast for the whole year of 2021 from the previous 6.4% to 6%. The annual economy grew by 4.5%.Goldman Sachs warns that the impact of the Delta variant on the economy and inflation is tougher than expected:Consumer spending and production have both taken a hit. Spending on food and beverage, travel and other services is likely to decline in August, though we don't expect the decline to be too dramatic or too long. Production remains affected by supply chain disruptions, particularly in the automotive sector, which could mean less inventory rebuild in the third quarter.Risks are increasingAs the epidemic spreads, economic growth is expected to slow down, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening is expected to rise, the risk of uncertainty in U.S. stocks is intensifying.Michael Hartnett, global investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects U.S. stocks to see negative returns in the second half of this year, expressing concern about the threat of stagflation posed by rising inflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson also believes that U.S. stocks are on the verge of a correction. He suggested that investors should invest in stocks with lower volatility given the expected pullback, and predicted that the S&P 500 will be around 4,000 by the end of the year, implying a 10% downside at current levels.Goldman Sachs warned about the volatility of U.S. stocks.Goldman Sachs derivatives strategy officer Rocky Fishma predicted last week that the volatility of the U.S. stock market will soar next, based on the fact that the implied volatility curve of the VIX remains upward after rising 6 points in 4 days, reflecting expectations that volatility will continue to rise sharply.Additionally, the one-year VIX index futures price has risen to 26, near the top of its Q2/Q3 range, well above spot but below its Q1 median of 28.Goldman Sachs pointed out that since 1940, the only cases where the actual volatility of the S&P 500 has exceeded 26 throughout the year have been the stock market crash in 1987, the financial crisis in 2008, and the outbreak in 2020.For investors, risk hedging with diversified tools is the best way to control the pullback/retracement.CME group's latest small-scale stock index contract micro E ‑ mini futures can help investors make updated and refined risk deployment.This tool has the advantage of more flexible and smaller expansion contracts. The micro E-mini contract is only one-tenth of the size of the traditional E-mini contract. It only requires a lower margin to enter the market, as well as access to trading Opportunities for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 U.S. Index.In addition, micro E-mini futures can be used to add more granularity and allow fine-tuning of the index exposure of a certain position, expanding or downsizing the index exposure with precision. At the same time, micro E-mini futures can completely replace traditional E-mini contracts, which can flexibly manage positions when market conditions change and make it easier to obtain deep liquidity.According to reports, since its launch in 2019, the trading volume of micro E-mini stock index contracts has exceeded 800 million contracts. Global participation remained strong, with 21% of trading volume in the non-U.S. session prior to cash opening and participants from more than 190 countries. In the first half of 2021, the average daily trading volume exceeded 460,000 contracts in non-US time.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n华尔街见闻 \n2021-08-31 13:31\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks, which touched the heartstrings of the market, finally came to an end. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech temporarily relieved investors.But in the long run, the policy shift is the general trend, and U.S. stocks still face many tests.In his speech on Friday (August 27), Powell emphasized that the rise in inflation is only temporary, and made it clear for the first time that if economic progress continues, he and most Fed officials support the possibility of beginning to reduce bond buying (Taper) this year.), but tapering QE does not directly imply future rate hike time. In fact, the United States is far from meeting the conditions of rate hike, and \"there is still a long way to go before full employment\".Powell's speech not only confirmed people's widespread expectations that Taper is about to start, but also avoided the \"Taper tantrum\" in 2013. The financial market made a positive response similar to \"finally a boot landed\", thus eliminating some policy uncertainty.On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, and spot gold rebounded by more than $10 from the daily low in the short term, not only returning to the key psychological integer of $1,800, but also standing at $1,810.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ac764072a021b8d553965de4e2d0fb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The analysis pointed out that Powell's speech was in line with expectations, and he confirmed the strong job growth in recent months and the downside risks posed by the Delta variant. The bank expects the Fed to give advance notice in September and officially announce the start of reducing the scale of bond purchases in November.Specifically, Goldman Sachs predicts that the probability of the Fed's official announcement in November is 45%, the probability of an official announcement in December is 35%, and the probability of postponing it to 2022 is 20%.A bumpy road to US austerityAlthough there is no risk that the \"Sword of Damocles\" of U.S. monetary policy tightening will fall for the time being, as the U.S. economy improves, inflation is high, and employment recovers, Taper and rate hike are the general trend.Steven Bell, chief economist of BMO Global Asset Management, recently said that the market needs to recognize a fact,That is, the fire is almost out, and monetary policy is still at the level of emergency, so it is inappropriate to continue to ease monetary policy.It is worth mentioning that this time many countries have taken the lead in the United States and started the road of austerity. According to the data released by Steve Financial, an American investment bank, the global supply of broad money (M2) denominated in US dollars increased year-on-year after reaching a cyclical high of 22% in March, it fell back to slightly more than 10% in the middle of this year. level.However, the Federal Reserve stands at the sensitive crossroads of policy shift, but it still hesitates. Looking around, there are many uncertainties facing policy makers and the market.On the one hand, U.S. inflation remains high.Data released by the U.S. Bureau of National Statistics on August 11 showed that the overall CPI in the United States increased by 5.4% year-on-year in July, higher than the expected growth of 5.3%, and unchanged from the 5.4% increase in June, which is still the highest level since 2008.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c9b534228ee4e8bd63ccd14729bdca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current round of inflation is only temporary and will subside after supply catches up with demand with vaccinations and epidemic control, some Fed officials are worried that supply chain disruptions and demand growth may continue to push up Inflation until 2022 and beyond.Before the annual meeting of global central banks, Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said that the Fed is facing the challenge that price pressures have not subsided. He believes that inflation will be much higher than the Fed's target, and if the Fed does not take action, inflation will continue to accelerate. \"Inflation may not be that short-lived, which is a risk I am worried about.\"This will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy as soon as possible. Recently, Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, said when looking forward to the market outlook that the Fed's reduction may be greater than market expectations, and interest rates will rise faster.On the other hand, the raging Delta variant of the virus has cast a shadow over the prospects for economic recovery in the United States.The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August plummeted 11 points from the previous month to 70.2, the lowest level since December 2011. The data was well below market expectations.In addition, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on August 17 showed that U.S. retail sales decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in July, significantly exceeding market expectations for a decrease of 0.3%, while the previous value increased by 0.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddfca5645b5555b3b4a2f85e87cc9ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">After the release of this data, Goldman Sachs immediately announced that it would significantly lower its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter of the United States from the previous 8.5% to 5.5%, and at the same time lowered its GDP growth forecast for the whole year of 2021 from the previous 6.4% to 6%. The annual economy grew by 4.5%.Goldman Sachs warns that the impact of the Delta variant on the economy and inflation is tougher than expected:Consumer spending and production have both taken a hit. Spending on food and beverage, travel and other services is likely to decline in August, though we don't expect the decline to be too dramatic or too long. Production remains affected by supply chain disruptions, particularly in the automotive sector, which could mean less inventory rebuild in the third quarter.Risks are increasingAs the epidemic spreads, economic growth is expected to slow down, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening is expected to rise, the risk of uncertainty in U.S. stocks is intensifying.Michael Hartnett, global investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects U.S. stocks to see negative returns in the second half of this year, expressing concern about the threat of stagflation posed by rising inflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson also believes that U.S. stocks are on the verge of a correction. He suggested that investors should invest in stocks with lower volatility given the expected pullback, and predicted that the S&P 500 will be around 4,000 by the end of the year, implying a 10% downside at current levels.Goldman Sachs warned about the volatility of U.S. stocks.Goldman Sachs derivatives strategy officer Rocky Fishma predicted last week that the volatility of the U.S. stock market will soar next, based on the fact that the implied volatility curve of the VIX remains upward after rising 6 points in 4 days, reflecting expectations that volatility will continue to rise sharply.Additionally, the one-year VIX index futures price has risen to 26, near the top of its Q2/Q3 range, well above spot but below its Q1 median of 28.Goldman Sachs pointed out that since 1940, the only cases where the actual volatility of the S&P 500 has exceeded 26 throughout the year have been the stock market crash in 1987, the financial crisis in 2008, and the outbreak in 2020.For investors, risk hedging with diversified tools is the best way to control the pullback/retracement.CME group's latest small-scale stock index contract micro E ‑ mini futures can help investors make updated and refined risk deployment.This tool has the advantage of more flexible and smaller expansion contracts. The micro E-mini contract is only one-tenth of the size of the traditional E-mini contract. It only requires a lower margin to enter the market, as well as access to trading Opportunities for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 U.S. Index.In addition, micro E-mini futures can be used to add more granularity and allow fine-tuning of the index exposure of a certain position, expanding or downsizing the index exposure with precision. At the same time, micro E-mini futures can completely replace traditional E-mini contracts, which can flexibly manage positions when market conditions change and make it easier to obtain deep liquidity.According to reports, since its launch in 2019, the trading volume of micro E-mini stock index contracts has exceeded 800 million contracts. Global participation remained strong, with 21% of trading volume in the non-U.S. session prior to cash opening and participants from more than 190 countries. In the first half of 2021, the average daily trading volume exceeded 460,000 contracts in non-US time.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171411957","content_text":"面牵动市场心弦的Jackson Hole全球央行年会终于落下帷幕，美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派发言让投资者们暂时松了一口气，但从长期来看，政策转向是大势所趋，美股依然面临众多考验。\n在周五(8月27日)的讲话中，鲍威尔着重强调了通胀走高只是暂时的，并首度明确称如果经济进展持续，他与大多数美联储官员都支持可能在今年开始缩减买债（Taper），但减码QE并不直接暗示未来的加息时间。事实上，美国远未满足加息条件，“距离充分就业还有很长的路要走”。\n鲍威尔的发言既印证了人们对Taper即将开启的广泛预期，也能避免2013年时的“缩减恐慌”。金融市场作出了类似“终于有一只靴子落地”、进而消除了一部分政策不确定性的积极反应。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，现货黄金短线从日低反弹逾10美元，不仅重回1800美元关键心理整数位，还站上1810美元。\n\n高盛分析指出，鲍威尔的讲话符合预期，他确认了近几个月的强劲就业增长以及Delta变种带来的下行风险。该行预计，美联储目的是在9月给出提前通知，在11月正式宣布开始缩减购债规模。\n具体来看，高盛预计，美联储11月正式宣布的可能性为45%，12月正式宣布的可能性为35%，推迟到2022年的可能性为20%。\n美国紧缩之路坎坷\n虽然美国货币政策紧缩这把“达摩克利斯之剑”暂时没有落下的风险，但随着美国经济好转，通胀高企，就业复苏，Taper和加息是大势所趋。\nBMO Global Asset Management首席经济学家Steven Bell近日表示，市场需要认清一个事实，那就是火已经快灭了，而货币政策依然处于紧急状态的水平，继续放松货币政策是不合适的。\n值得一提的是，这一次有不少国家已经走在美国前面，开启了紧缩之路。美国投资银行斯迪富金融公司公布的数据显示，全球以美元计价的广义货币（M2）供应量同比涨幅3月达到22%的周期性高点后，在今年年中已回落至略高于10%的水平。\n而美联储站在政策转向这个敏感路口，却依然踌躇不前，放眼望去，摆在决策者和市场面前的是诸多的不确定性。\n一方面，美国通胀依然处于高位。8月11日美国国家统计局公布的数据显示，美国7月整体CPI同比增长5.4%，高于预期增长的5.3%，持平于6月5.4%的增幅，这仍然是2008年以来的最高水平。\n\n虽然鲍威尔不断强调，当前这轮通胀只是暂时的，随着疫苗接种和疫情控制，供应赶上需求后，通胀将会消退，但部分美联储官员担忧，供应链中断和需求增长可能会持续推高通胀直至2022年及以后。\n全球央行年会前，美国费城联储行长Patrick Harker表示，美联储正面临着价格压力并未消退的挑战。他认为，通胀将远高于美联储的目标，如果美联储不采取行动，通胀将继续加速，“通胀可能不是那么短暂，这是我担心的风险。”\n这将加大美联储尽快收紧货币政策的压力。近日，全球最大对冲基金桥水的联席首席投资官Greg Jensen在展望后市时表示，届时美联储减码幅度有可能比市场预期更大，利率升速也会更快。\n另一方面 ，Delta变种病毒的肆虐给美国经济复苏前景蒙上了一层阴影。\n美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值较上月骤降11点，至70.2，创2011年12月以来最低水平。数据远低于市场预期。\n另外，美国商务部8月17日公布数据显示，美国7月零售销售环比减少1.1%，大幅超过市场预期的减少0.3%，而前值为增加0.6%。\n\n这一数据公布后，高盛随即宣布将美国三季度GDP增长预期从此前的8.5%大幅下调至5.5%，同时将2021年全年GDP增长预期从此前6.4%下调至6%，预计2022年美国全年经济增长4.5%。\n高盛警告称，Delta变种病毒对经济和通胀的影响比预期更严峻：\n\n 消费者支出和生产都受到了冲击。8月份餐饮、旅游和其他服务支出可能会下降，不过我们预计下降幅度不会太大，也不会太长。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度库存重建会减少。\n\n风险正在加剧\n随着疫情蔓延，经济增速预期放缓，以及美联储货币政策收紧预期升温，美股的不确定性风险正在加剧。\n美银美林全球投资策略师Michael Hartnett预计，今年下半年美国股市将出现负回报，他对通货膨胀加剧带来的滞胀威胁表示担忧。\n摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson也认为，美股正处于回调的边缘。他建议，鉴于预期中的回调，投资者应该投资波动性较低的股票，并预测年底标普500指数会处于4000点左右，这意味当前水平下有10%的下跌空间。\n高盛则对美股的波动性作出了警告。\n高盛衍生品策略官Rocky Fishma上周预计，美股市场波动接下来会飙升，依据是VIX在4天上涨6个点后隐含波动曲线仍保持上升型，反映出波动率将继续大幅上升的预期。\n此外，一年期 VIX 指数期货价格已升至 26，接近其第二季度/第三季度范围的顶部，远高于现货，但低于其第一季度中值28。高盛指出，自从1940年以来，标普500全年实际波动率超过26的情况只有1987年股灾、2008年金融危机和2020年疫情爆发。\n对于投资者来说，运用多样化工具进行风险对冲是控制回撤的最好方法。芝商所最新小规模股指合约微型E‑迷你期货能够帮投资者进行更新精细化的风险部署。\n该工具具有更灵活、更小规模的扩充合约的优势，微型E-迷你合约仅为传统E-迷你合约规模的十分之一，其只需要较低的保证金便能进入市场，以及获取交易标普500指数、纳斯达克100指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000美国指数的机会。\n此外，微型E-迷你期货可用于增加更多粒度，并允许微调某个持仓的指数风险敞口，精确地扩大或缩小指数风险敞口规模。同时，微型E-迷你期货可完全替代传统E-迷你合约，其可在市场条件变化时灵活地管理持仓，并更容易获取深度流动性。\n据介绍，自2019年推出以来，微型E-迷你股指合约的交易量超过 8亿份合约。全球参与度依然强劲，在现金开放前的非美国时段交易量占21%，参与者来自190多个国家。2021年上半年，在非美国时间内，平均每日交易量超过46万份合同。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":818762895,"gmtCreate":1630451046817,"gmtModify":1676530304370,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3561544476596136","idStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"不大跌沒道理??","listText":"不大跌沒道理??","text":"不大跌沒道理??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818762895","repostId":1171411957,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171411957","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1630387892,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171411957?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-31 13:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Powell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171411957","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"面牵动市场心弦的Jackson Hole全球央行年会终于落下帷幕，美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派发言让投资者们暂时松了一口气，但从长期来看，政策转向是大势所趋，美股依然面临众多考验。\n在周五(8月27日)的讲","content":"The Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks, which touched the heartstrings of the market, finally came to an end. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech temporarily relieved investors.But in the long run, the policy shift is the general trend, and U.S. stocks still face many tests.In his speech on Friday (August 27), Powell emphasized that the rise in inflation is only temporary, and made it clear for the first time that if economic progress continues, he and most Fed officials support the possibility of beginning to reduce bond buying (Taper) this year.), but tapering QE does not directly imply future rate hike time. In fact, the United States is far from meeting the conditions of rate hike, and \"there is still a long way to go before full employment\".Powell's speech not only confirmed people's widespread expectations that Taper is about to start, but also avoided the \"Taper tantrum\" in 2013. The financial market made a positive response similar to \"finally a boot landed\", thus eliminating some policy uncertainty.On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, and spot gold rebounded by more than $10 from the daily low in the short term, not only returning to the key psychological integer of $1,800, but also standing at $1,810.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ac764072a021b8d553965de4e2d0fb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The analysis pointed out that Powell's speech was in line with expectations, and he confirmed the strong job growth in recent months and the downside risks posed by the Delta variant. The bank expects the Fed to give advance notice in September and officially announce the start of reducing the scale of bond purchases in November.Specifically, Goldman Sachs predicts that the probability of the Fed's official announcement in November is 45%, the probability of an official announcement in December is 35%, and the probability of postponing it to 2022 is 20%.A bumpy road to US austerityAlthough there is no risk that the \"Sword of Damocles\" of U.S. monetary policy tightening will fall for the time being, as the U.S. economy improves, inflation is high, and employment recovers, Taper and rate hike are the general trend.Steven Bell, chief economist of BMO Global Asset Management, recently said that the market needs to recognize a fact,That is, the fire is almost out, and monetary policy is still at the level of emergency, so it is inappropriate to continue to ease monetary policy.It is worth mentioning that this time many countries have taken the lead in the United States and started the road of austerity. According to the data released by Steve Financial, an American investment bank, the global supply of broad money (M2) denominated in US dollars increased year-on-year after reaching a cyclical high of 22% in March, it fell back to slightly more than 10% in the middle of this year. level.However, the Federal Reserve stands at the sensitive crossroads of policy shift, but it still hesitates. Looking around, there are many uncertainties facing policy makers and the market.On the one hand, U.S. inflation remains high.Data released by the U.S. Bureau of National Statistics on August 11 showed that the overall CPI in the United States increased by 5.4% year-on-year in July, higher than the expected growth of 5.3%, and unchanged from the 5.4% increase in June, which is still the highest level since 2008.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c9b534228ee4e8bd63ccd14729bdca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current round of inflation is only temporary and will subside after supply catches up with demand with vaccinations and epidemic control, some Fed officials are worried that supply chain disruptions and demand growth may continue to push up Inflation until 2022 and beyond.Before the annual meeting of global central banks, Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said that the Fed is facing the challenge that price pressures have not subsided. He believes that inflation will be much higher than the Fed's target, and if the Fed does not take action, inflation will continue to accelerate. \"Inflation may not be that short-lived, which is a risk I am worried about.\"This will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy as soon as possible. Recently, Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, said when looking forward to the market outlook that the Fed's reduction may be greater than market expectations, and interest rates will rise faster.On the other hand, the raging Delta variant of the virus has cast a shadow over the prospects for economic recovery in the United States.The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August plummeted 11 points from the previous month to 70.2, the lowest level since December 2011. The data was well below market expectations.In addition, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on August 17 showed that U.S. retail sales decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in July, significantly exceeding market expectations for a decrease of 0.3%, while the previous value increased by 0.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddfca5645b5555b3b4a2f85e87cc9ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">After the release of this data, Goldman Sachs immediately announced that it would significantly lower its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter of the United States from the previous 8.5% to 5.5%, and at the same time lowered its GDP growth forecast for the whole year of 2021 from the previous 6.4% to 6%. The annual economy grew by 4.5%.Goldman Sachs warns that the impact of the Delta variant on the economy and inflation is tougher than expected:Consumer spending and production have both taken a hit. Spending on food and beverage, travel and other services is likely to decline in August, though we don't expect the decline to be too dramatic or too long. Production remains affected by supply chain disruptions, particularly in the automotive sector, which could mean less inventory rebuild in the third quarter.Risks are increasingAs the epidemic spreads, economic growth is expected to slow down, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening is expected to rise, the risk of uncertainty in U.S. stocks is intensifying.Michael Hartnett, global investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects U.S. stocks to see negative returns in the second half of this year, expressing concern about the threat of stagflation posed by rising inflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson also believes that U.S. stocks are on the verge of a correction. He suggested that investors should invest in stocks with lower volatility given the expected pullback, and predicted that the S&P 500 will be around 4,000 by the end of the year, implying a 10% downside at current levels.Goldman Sachs warned about the volatility of U.S. stocks.Goldman Sachs derivatives strategy officer Rocky Fishma predicted last week that the volatility of the U.S. stock market will soar next, based on the fact that the implied volatility curve of the VIX remains upward after rising 6 points in 4 days, reflecting expectations that volatility will continue to rise sharply.Additionally, the one-year VIX index futures price has risen to 26, near the top of its Q2/Q3 range, well above spot but below its Q1 median of 28.Goldman Sachs pointed out that since 1940, the only cases where the actual volatility of the S&P 500 has exceeded 26 throughout the year have been the stock market crash in 1987, the financial crisis in 2008, and the outbreak in 2020.For investors, risk hedging with diversified tools is the best way to control the pullback/retracement.CME group's latest small-scale stock index contract micro E ‑ mini futures can help investors make updated and refined risk deployment.This tool has the advantage of more flexible and smaller expansion contracts. The micro E-mini contract is only one-tenth of the size of the traditional E-mini contract. It only requires a lower margin to enter the market, as well as access to trading Opportunities for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 U.S. Index.In addition, micro E-mini futures can be used to add more granularity and allow fine-tuning of the index exposure of a certain position, expanding or downsizing the index exposure with precision. At the same time, micro E-mini futures can completely replace traditional E-mini contracts, which can flexibly manage positions when market conditions change and make it easier to obtain deep liquidity.According to reports, since its launch in 2019, the trading volume of micro E-mini stock index contracts has exceeded 800 million contracts. Global participation remained strong, with 21% of trading volume in the non-U.S. session prior to cash opening and participants from more than 190 countries. In the first half of 2021, the average daily trading volume exceeded 460,000 contracts in non-US time.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n华尔街见闻 \n2021-08-31 13:31\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks, which touched the heartstrings of the market, finally came to an end. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech temporarily relieved investors.But in the long run, the policy shift is the general trend, and U.S. stocks still face many tests.In his speech on Friday (August 27), Powell emphasized that the rise in inflation is only temporary, and made it clear for the first time that if economic progress continues, he and most Fed officials support the possibility of beginning to reduce bond buying (Taper) this year.), but tapering QE does not directly imply future rate hike time. In fact, the United States is far from meeting the conditions of rate hike, and \"there is still a long way to go before full employment\".Powell's speech not only confirmed people's widespread expectations that Taper is about to start, but also avoided the \"Taper tantrum\" in 2013. The financial market made a positive response similar to \"finally a boot landed\", thus eliminating some policy uncertainty.On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, and spot gold rebounded by more than $10 from the daily low in the short term, not only returning to the key psychological integer of $1,800, but also standing at $1,810.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ac764072a021b8d553965de4e2d0fb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The analysis pointed out that Powell's speech was in line with expectations, and he confirmed the strong job growth in recent months and the downside risks posed by the Delta variant. The bank expects the Fed to give advance notice in September and officially announce the start of reducing the scale of bond purchases in November.Specifically, Goldman Sachs predicts that the probability of the Fed's official announcement in November is 45%, the probability of an official announcement in December is 35%, and the probability of postponing it to 2022 is 20%.A bumpy road to US austerityAlthough there is no risk that the \"Sword of Damocles\" of U.S. monetary policy tightening will fall for the time being, as the U.S. economy improves, inflation is high, and employment recovers, Taper and rate hike are the general trend.Steven Bell, chief economist of BMO Global Asset Management, recently said that the market needs to recognize a fact,That is, the fire is almost out, and monetary policy is still at the level of emergency, so it is inappropriate to continue to ease monetary policy.It is worth mentioning that this time many countries have taken the lead in the United States and started the road of austerity. According to the data released by Steve Financial, an American investment bank, the global supply of broad money (M2) denominated in US dollars increased year-on-year after reaching a cyclical high of 22% in March, it fell back to slightly more than 10% in the middle of this year. level.However, the Federal Reserve stands at the sensitive crossroads of policy shift, but it still hesitates. Looking around, there are many uncertainties facing policy makers and the market.On the one hand, U.S. inflation remains high.Data released by the U.S. Bureau of National Statistics on August 11 showed that the overall CPI in the United States increased by 5.4% year-on-year in July, higher than the expected growth of 5.3%, and unchanged from the 5.4% increase in June, which is still the highest level since 2008.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c9b534228ee4e8bd63ccd14729bdca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current round of inflation is only temporary and will subside after supply catches up with demand with vaccinations and epidemic control, some Fed officials are worried that supply chain disruptions and demand growth may continue to push up Inflation until 2022 and beyond.Before the annual meeting of global central banks, Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said that the Fed is facing the challenge that price pressures have not subsided. He believes that inflation will be much higher than the Fed's target, and if the Fed does not take action, inflation will continue to accelerate. \"Inflation may not be that short-lived, which is a risk I am worried about.\"This will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy as soon as possible. Recently, Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, said when looking forward to the market outlook that the Fed's reduction may be greater than market expectations, and interest rates will rise faster.On the other hand, the raging Delta variant of the virus has cast a shadow over the prospects for economic recovery in the United States.The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August plummeted 11 points from the previous month to 70.2, the lowest level since December 2011. The data was well below market expectations.In addition, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on August 17 showed that U.S. retail sales decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in July, significantly exceeding market expectations for a decrease of 0.3%, while the previous value increased by 0.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddfca5645b5555b3b4a2f85e87cc9ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">After the release of this data, Goldman Sachs immediately announced that it would significantly lower its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter of the United States from the previous 8.5% to 5.5%, and at the same time lowered its GDP growth forecast for the whole year of 2021 from the previous 6.4% to 6%. The annual economy grew by 4.5%.Goldman Sachs warns that the impact of the Delta variant on the economy and inflation is tougher than expected:Consumer spending and production have both taken a hit. Spending on food and beverage, travel and other services is likely to decline in August, though we don't expect the decline to be too dramatic or too long. Production remains affected by supply chain disruptions, particularly in the automotive sector, which could mean less inventory rebuild in the third quarter.Risks are increasingAs the epidemic spreads, economic growth is expected to slow down, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening is expected to rise, the risk of uncertainty in U.S. stocks is intensifying.Michael Hartnett, global investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects U.S. stocks to see negative returns in the second half of this year, expressing concern about the threat of stagflation posed by rising inflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson also believes that U.S. stocks are on the verge of a correction. He suggested that investors should invest in stocks with lower volatility given the expected pullback, and predicted that the S&P 500 will be around 4,000 by the end of the year, implying a 10% downside at current levels.Goldman Sachs warned about the volatility of U.S. stocks.Goldman Sachs derivatives strategy officer Rocky Fishma predicted last week that the volatility of the U.S. stock market will soar next, based on the fact that the implied volatility curve of the VIX remains upward after rising 6 points in 4 days, reflecting expectations that volatility will continue to rise sharply.Additionally, the one-year VIX index futures price has risen to 26, near the top of its Q2/Q3 range, well above spot but below its Q1 median of 28.Goldman Sachs pointed out that since 1940, the only cases where the actual volatility of the S&P 500 has exceeded 26 throughout the year have been the stock market crash in 1987, the financial crisis in 2008, and the outbreak in 2020.For investors, risk hedging with diversified tools is the best way to control the pullback/retracement.CME group's latest small-scale stock index contract micro E ‑ mini futures can help investors make updated and refined risk deployment.This tool has the advantage of more flexible and smaller expansion contracts. The micro E-mini contract is only one-tenth of the size of the traditional E-mini contract. It only requires a lower margin to enter the market, as well as access to trading Opportunities for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 U.S. Index.In addition, micro E-mini futures can be used to add more granularity and allow fine-tuning of the index exposure of a certain position, expanding or downsizing the index exposure with precision. At the same time, micro E-mini futures can completely replace traditional E-mini contracts, which can flexibly manage positions when market conditions change and make it easier to obtain deep liquidity.According to reports, since its launch in 2019, the trading volume of micro E-mini stock index contracts has exceeded 800 million contracts. Global participation remained strong, with 21% of trading volume in the non-U.S. session prior to cash opening and participants from more than 190 countries. In the first half of 2021, the average daily trading volume exceeded 460,000 contracts in non-US time.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171411957","content_text":"面牵动市场心弦的Jackson Hole全球央行年会终于落下帷幕，美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派发言让投资者们暂时松了一口气，但从长期来看，政策转向是大势所趋，美股依然面临众多考验。\n在周五(8月27日)的讲话中，鲍威尔着重强调了通胀走高只是暂时的，并首度明确称如果经济进展持续，他与大多数美联储官员都支持可能在今年开始缩减买债（Taper），但减码QE并不直接暗示未来的加息时间。事实上，美国远未满足加息条件，“距离充分就业还有很长的路要走”。\n鲍威尔的发言既印证了人们对Taper即将开启的广泛预期，也能避免2013年时的“缩减恐慌”。金融市场作出了类似“终于有一只靴子落地”、进而消除了一部分政策不确定性的积极反应。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，现货黄金短线从日低反弹逾10美元，不仅重回1800美元关键心理整数位，还站上1810美元。\n\n高盛分析指出，鲍威尔的讲话符合预期，他确认了近几个月的强劲就业增长以及Delta变种带来的下行风险。该行预计，美联储目的是在9月给出提前通知，在11月正式宣布开始缩减购债规模。\n具体来看，高盛预计，美联储11月正式宣布的可能性为45%，12月正式宣布的可能性为35%，推迟到2022年的可能性为20%。\n美国紧缩之路坎坷\n虽然美国货币政策紧缩这把“达摩克利斯之剑”暂时没有落下的风险，但随着美国经济好转，通胀高企，就业复苏，Taper和加息是大势所趋。\nBMO Global Asset Management首席经济学家Steven Bell近日表示，市场需要认清一个事实，那就是火已经快灭了，而货币政策依然处于紧急状态的水平，继续放松货币政策是不合适的。\n值得一提的是，这一次有不少国家已经走在美国前面，开启了紧缩之路。美国投资银行斯迪富金融公司公布的数据显示，全球以美元计价的广义货币（M2）供应量同比涨幅3月达到22%的周期性高点后，在今年年中已回落至略高于10%的水平。\n而美联储站在政策转向这个敏感路口，却依然踌躇不前，放眼望去，摆在决策者和市场面前的是诸多的不确定性。\n一方面，美国通胀依然处于高位。8月11日美国国家统计局公布的数据显示，美国7月整体CPI同比增长5.4%，高于预期增长的5.3%，持平于6月5.4%的增幅，这仍然是2008年以来的最高水平。\n\n虽然鲍威尔不断强调，当前这轮通胀只是暂时的，随着疫苗接种和疫情控制，供应赶上需求后，通胀将会消退，但部分美联储官员担忧，供应链中断和需求增长可能会持续推高通胀直至2022年及以后。\n全球央行年会前，美国费城联储行长Patrick Harker表示，美联储正面临着价格压力并未消退的挑战。他认为，通胀将远高于美联储的目标，如果美联储不采取行动，通胀将继续加速，“通胀可能不是那么短暂，这是我担心的风险。”\n这将加大美联储尽快收紧货币政策的压力。近日，全球最大对冲基金桥水的联席首席投资官Greg Jensen在展望后市时表示，届时美联储减码幅度有可能比市场预期更大，利率升速也会更快。\n另一方面 ，Delta变种病毒的肆虐给美国经济复苏前景蒙上了一层阴影。\n美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值较上月骤降11点，至70.2，创2011年12月以来最低水平。数据远低于市场预期。\n另外，美国商务部8月17日公布数据显示，美国7月零售销售环比减少1.1%，大幅超过市场预期的减少0.3%，而前值为增加0.6%。\n\n这一数据公布后，高盛随即宣布将美国三季度GDP增长预期从此前的8.5%大幅下调至5.5%，同时将2021年全年GDP增长预期从此前6.4%下调至6%，预计2022年美国全年经济增长4.5%。\n高盛警告称，Delta变种病毒对经济和通胀的影响比预期更严峻：\n\n 消费者支出和生产都受到了冲击。8月份餐饮、旅游和其他服务支出可能会下降，不过我们预计下降幅度不会太大，也不会太长。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度库存重建会减少。\n\n风险正在加剧\n随着疫情蔓延，经济增速预期放缓，以及美联储货币政策收紧预期升温，美股的不确定性风险正在加剧。\n美银美林全球投资策略师Michael Hartnett预计，今年下半年美国股市将出现负回报，他对通货膨胀加剧带来的滞胀威胁表示担忧。\n摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson也认为，美股正处于回调的边缘。他建议，鉴于预期中的回调，投资者应该投资波动性较低的股票，并预测年底标普500指数会处于4000点左右，这意味当前水平下有10%的下跌空间。\n高盛则对美股的波动性作出了警告。\n高盛衍生品策略官Rocky Fishma上周预计，美股市场波动接下来会飙升，依据是VIX在4天上涨6个点后隐含波动曲线仍保持上升型，反映出波动率将继续大幅上升的预期。\n此外，一年期 VIX 指数期货价格已升至 26，接近其第二季度/第三季度范围的顶部，远高于现货，但低于其第一季度中值28。高盛指出，自从1940年以来，标普500全年实际波动率超过26的情况只有1987年股灾、2008年金融危机和2020年疫情爆发。\n对于投资者来说，运用多样化工具进行风险对冲是控制回撤的最好方法。芝商所最新小规模股指合约微型E‑迷你期货能够帮投资者进行更新精细化的风险部署。\n该工具具有更灵活、更小规模的扩充合约的优势，微型E-迷你合约仅为传统E-迷你合约规模的十分之一，其只需要较低的保证金便能进入市场，以及获取交易标普500指数、纳斯达克100指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000美国指数的机会。\n此外，微型E-迷你期货可用于增加更多粒度，并允许微调某个持仓的指数风险敞口，精确地扩大或缩小指数风险敞口规模。同时，微型E-迷你期货可完全替代传统E-迷你合约，其可在市场条件变化时灵活地管理持仓，并更容易获取深度流动性。\n据介绍，自2019年推出以来，微型E-迷你股指合约的交易量超过 8亿份合约。全球参与度依然强劲，在现金开放前的非美国时段交易量占21%，参与者来自190多个国家。2021年上半年，在非美国时间内，平均每日交易量超过46万份合同。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5710186,"gmtCreate":1630451759063,"gmtModify":1663233192645,"authorId":3501998685270291,"author":{"id":3501998685270291,"idStr":"3501998685270291","authorId":3501998685270291,"name":"咖啡Ai","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0e06eb6b8be2e30cb6f47e8ab9820f86","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary Trader","description":"Total number of securities or futures transactions reached 300","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c767e35268feb729d50d3fa9a386c5a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.03.23","exceedPercentage":"93.52%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":818762895,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"不能跌啊 [无语]","text":"不能跌啊 [无语]","html":"不能跌啊 [无语]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":818785301,"gmtCreate":1630450466703,"gmtModify":1676530304004,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577393549070429","idStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"閱！","listText":"閱！","text":"閱！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818785301","repostId":1171411957,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171411957","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1630387892,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1171411957?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-31 13:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Powell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171411957","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"面牵动市场心弦的Jackson Hole全球央行年会终于落下帷幕，美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派发言让投资者们暂时松了一口气，但从长期来看，政策转向是大势所趋，美股依然面临众多考验。\n在周五(8月27日)的讲","content":"The Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks, which touched the heartstrings of the market, finally came to an end. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech temporarily relieved investors.But in the long run, the policy shift is the general trend, and U.S. stocks still face many tests.In his speech on Friday (August 27), Powell emphasized that the rise in inflation is only temporary, and made it clear for the first time that if economic progress continues, he and most Fed officials support the possibility of beginning to reduce bond buying (Taper) this year.), but tapering QE does not directly imply future rate hike time. In fact, the United States is far from meeting the conditions of rate hike, and \"there is still a long way to go before full employment\".Powell's speech not only confirmed people's widespread expectations that Taper is about to start, but also avoided the \"Taper tantrum\" in 2013. The financial market made a positive response similar to \"finally a boot landed\", thus eliminating some policy uncertainty.On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, and spot gold rebounded by more than $10 from the daily low in the short term, not only returning to the key psychological integer of $1,800, but also standing at $1,810.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ac764072a021b8d553965de4e2d0fb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The analysis pointed out that Powell's speech was in line with expectations, and he confirmed the strong job growth in recent months and the downside risks posed by the Delta variant. The bank expects the Fed to give advance notice in September and officially announce the start of reducing the scale of bond purchases in November.Specifically, Goldman Sachs predicts that the probability of the Fed's official announcement in November is 45%, the probability of an official announcement in December is 35%, and the probability of postponing it to 2022 is 20%.A bumpy road to US austerityAlthough there is no risk that the \"Sword of Damocles\" of U.S. monetary policy tightening will fall for the time being, as the U.S. economy improves, inflation is high, and employment recovers, Taper and rate hike are the general trend.Steven Bell, chief economist of BMO Global Asset Management, recently said that the market needs to recognize a fact,That is, the fire is almost out, and monetary policy is still at the level of emergency, so it is inappropriate to continue to ease monetary policy.It is worth mentioning that this time many countries have taken the lead in the United States and started the road of austerity. According to the data released by Steve Financial, an American investment bank, the global supply of broad money (M2) denominated in US dollars increased year-on-year after reaching a cyclical high of 22% in March, it fell back to slightly more than 10% in the middle of this year. level.However, the Federal Reserve stands at the sensitive crossroads of policy shift, but it still hesitates. Looking around, there are many uncertainties facing policy makers and the market.On the one hand, U.S. inflation remains high.Data released by the U.S. Bureau of National Statistics on August 11 showed that the overall CPI in the United States increased by 5.4% year-on-year in July, higher than the expected growth of 5.3%, and unchanged from the 5.4% increase in June, which is still the highest level since 2008.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c9b534228ee4e8bd63ccd14729bdca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current round of inflation is only temporary and will subside after supply catches up with demand with vaccinations and epidemic control, some Fed officials are worried that supply chain disruptions and demand growth may continue to push up Inflation until 2022 and beyond.Before the annual meeting of global central banks, Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said that the Fed is facing the challenge that price pressures have not subsided. He believes that inflation will be much higher than the Fed's target, and if the Fed does not take action, inflation will continue to accelerate. \"Inflation may not be that short-lived, which is a risk I am worried about.\"This will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy as soon as possible. Recently, Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, said when looking forward to the market outlook that the Fed's reduction may be greater than market expectations, and interest rates will rise faster.On the other hand, the raging Delta variant of the virus has cast a shadow over the prospects for economic recovery in the United States.The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August plummeted 11 points from the previous month to 70.2, the lowest level since December 2011. The data was well below market expectations.In addition, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on August 17 showed that U.S. retail sales decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in July, significantly exceeding market expectations for a decrease of 0.3%, while the previous value increased by 0.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddfca5645b5555b3b4a2f85e87cc9ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">After the release of this data, Goldman Sachs immediately announced that it would significantly lower its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter of the United States from the previous 8.5% to 5.5%, and at the same time lowered its GDP growth forecast for the whole year of 2021 from the previous 6.4% to 6%. The annual economy grew by 4.5%.Goldman Sachs warns that the impact of the Delta variant on the economy and inflation is tougher than expected:Consumer spending and production have both taken a hit. Spending on food and beverage, travel and other services is likely to decline in August, though we don't expect the decline to be too dramatic or too long. Production remains affected by supply chain disruptions, particularly in the automotive sector, which could mean less inventory rebuild in the third quarter.Risks are increasingAs the epidemic spreads, economic growth is expected to slow down, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening is expected to rise, the risk of uncertainty in U.S. stocks is intensifying.Michael Hartnett, global investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects U.S. stocks to see negative returns in the second half of this year, expressing concern about the threat of stagflation posed by rising inflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson also believes that U.S. stocks are on the verge of a correction. He suggested that investors should invest in stocks with lower volatility given the expected pullback, and predicted that the S&P 500 will be around 4,000 by the end of the year, implying a 10% downside at current levels.Goldman Sachs warned about the volatility of U.S. stocks.Goldman Sachs derivatives strategy officer Rocky Fishma predicted last week that the volatility of the U.S. stock market will soar next, based on the fact that the implied volatility curve of the VIX remains upward after rising 6 points in 4 days, reflecting expectations that volatility will continue to rise sharply.Additionally, the one-year VIX index futures price has risen to 26, near the top of its Q2/Q3 range, well above spot but below its Q1 median of 28.Goldman Sachs pointed out that since 1940, the only cases where the actual volatility of the S&P 500 has exceeded 26 throughout the year have been the stock market crash in 1987, the financial crisis in 2008, and the outbreak in 2020.For investors, risk hedging with diversified tools is the best way to control the pullback/retracement.CME group's latest small-scale stock index contract micro E ‑ mini futures can help investors make updated and refined risk deployment.This tool has the advantage of more flexible and smaller expansion contracts. The micro E-mini contract is only one-tenth of the size of the traditional E-mini contract. It only requires a lower margin to enter the market, as well as access to trading Opportunities for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 U.S. Index.In addition, micro E-mini futures can be used to add more granularity and allow fine-tuning of the index exposure of a certain position, expanding or downsizing the index exposure with precision. At the same time, micro E-mini futures can completely replace traditional E-mini contracts, which can flexibly manage positions when market conditions change and make it easier to obtain deep liquidity.According to reports, since its launch in 2019, the trading volume of micro E-mini stock index contracts has exceeded 800 million contracts. Global participation remained strong, with 21% of trading volume in the non-U.S. session prior to cash opening and participants from more than 190 countries. In the first half of 2021, the average daily trading volume exceeded 460,000 contracts in non-US time.","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell gave the market another reassurance, but can U.S. stocks sit back and relax?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n华尔街见闻 \n2021-08-31 13:31\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nThe Jackson Hole annual meeting of global central banks, which touched the heartstrings of the market, finally came to an end. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech temporarily relieved investors.But in the long run, the policy shift is the general trend, and U.S. stocks still face many tests.In his speech on Friday (August 27), Powell emphasized that the rise in inflation is only temporary, and made it clear for the first time that if economic progress continues, he and most Fed officials support the possibility of beginning to reduce bond buying (Taper) this year.), but tapering QE does not directly imply future rate hike time. In fact, the United States is far from meeting the conditions of rate hike, and \"there is still a long way to go before full employment\".Powell's speech not only confirmed people's widespread expectations that Taper is about to start, but also avoided the \"Taper tantrum\" in 2013. The financial market made a positive response similar to \"finally a boot landed\", thus eliminating some policy uncertainty.On the same day, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed up, and spot gold rebounded by more than $10 from the daily low in the short term, not only returning to the key psychological integer of $1,800, but also standing at $1,810.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74ac764072a021b8d553965de4e2d0fb\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The analysis pointed out that Powell's speech was in line with expectations, and he confirmed the strong job growth in recent months and the downside risks posed by the Delta variant. The bank expects the Fed to give advance notice in September and officially announce the start of reducing the scale of bond purchases in November.Specifically, Goldman Sachs predicts that the probability of the Fed's official announcement in November is 45%, the probability of an official announcement in December is 35%, and the probability of postponing it to 2022 is 20%.A bumpy road to US austerityAlthough there is no risk that the \"Sword of Damocles\" of U.S. monetary policy tightening will fall for the time being, as the U.S. economy improves, inflation is high, and employment recovers, Taper and rate hike are the general trend.Steven Bell, chief economist of BMO Global Asset Management, recently said that the market needs to recognize a fact,That is, the fire is almost out, and monetary policy is still at the level of emergency, so it is inappropriate to continue to ease monetary policy.It is worth mentioning that this time many countries have taken the lead in the United States and started the road of austerity. According to the data released by Steve Financial, an American investment bank, the global supply of broad money (M2) denominated in US dollars increased year-on-year after reaching a cyclical high of 22% in March, it fell back to slightly more than 10% in the middle of this year. level.However, the Federal Reserve stands at the sensitive crossroads of policy shift, but it still hesitates. Looking around, there are many uncertainties facing policy makers and the market.On the one hand, U.S. inflation remains high.Data released by the U.S. Bureau of National Statistics on August 11 showed that the overall CPI in the United States increased by 5.4% year-on-year in July, higher than the expected growth of 5.3%, and unchanged from the 5.4% increase in June, which is still the highest level since 2008.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33c9b534228ee4e8bd63ccd14729bdca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Although Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current round of inflation is only temporary and will subside after supply catches up with demand with vaccinations and epidemic control, some Fed officials are worried that supply chain disruptions and demand growth may continue to push up Inflation until 2022 and beyond.Before the annual meeting of global central banks, Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said that the Fed is facing the challenge that price pressures have not subsided. He believes that inflation will be much higher than the Fed's target, and if the Fed does not take action, inflation will continue to accelerate. \"Inflation may not be that short-lived, which is a risk I am worried about.\"This will increase pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy as soon as possible. Recently, Greg Jensen, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater, the world's largest hedge fund, said when looking forward to the market outlook that the Fed's reduction may be greater than market expectations, and interest rates will rise faster.On the other hand, the raging Delta variant of the virus has cast a shadow over the prospects for economic recovery in the United States.The preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August plummeted 11 points from the previous month to 70.2, the lowest level since December 2011. The data was well below market expectations.In addition, data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on August 17 showed that U.S. retail sales decreased by 1.1% month-on-month in July, significantly exceeding market expectations for a decrease of 0.3%, while the previous value increased by 0.6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ddfca5645b5555b3b4a2f85e87cc9ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">After the release of this data, Goldman Sachs immediately announced that it would significantly lower its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter of the United States from the previous 8.5% to 5.5%, and at the same time lowered its GDP growth forecast for the whole year of 2021 from the previous 6.4% to 6%. The annual economy grew by 4.5%.Goldman Sachs warns that the impact of the Delta variant on the economy and inflation is tougher than expected:Consumer spending and production have both taken a hit. Spending on food and beverage, travel and other services is likely to decline in August, though we don't expect the decline to be too dramatic or too long. Production remains affected by supply chain disruptions, particularly in the automotive sector, which could mean less inventory rebuild in the third quarter.Risks are increasingAs the epidemic spreads, economic growth is expected to slow down, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening is expected to rise, the risk of uncertainty in U.S. stocks is intensifying.Michael Hartnett, global investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, expects U.S. stocks to see negative returns in the second half of this year, expressing concern about the threat of stagflation posed by rising inflation.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson also believes that U.S. stocks are on the verge of a correction. He suggested that investors should invest in stocks with lower volatility given the expected pullback, and predicted that the S&P 500 will be around 4,000 by the end of the year, implying a 10% downside at current levels.Goldman Sachs warned about the volatility of U.S. stocks.Goldman Sachs derivatives strategy officer Rocky Fishma predicted last week that the volatility of the U.S. stock market will soar next, based on the fact that the implied volatility curve of the VIX remains upward after rising 6 points in 4 days, reflecting expectations that volatility will continue to rise sharply.Additionally, the one-year VIX index futures price has risen to 26, near the top of its Q2/Q3 range, well above spot but below its Q1 median of 28.Goldman Sachs pointed out that since 1940, the only cases where the actual volatility of the S&P 500 has exceeded 26 throughout the year have been the stock market crash in 1987, the financial crisis in 2008, and the outbreak in 2020.For investors, risk hedging with diversified tools is the best way to control the pullback/retracement.CME group's latest small-scale stock index contract micro E ‑ mini futures can help investors make updated and refined risk deployment.This tool has the advantage of more flexible and smaller expansion contracts. The micro E-mini contract is only one-tenth of the size of the traditional E-mini contract. It only requires a lower margin to enter the market, as well as access to trading Opportunities for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 U.S. Index.In addition, micro E-mini futures can be used to add more granularity and allow fine-tuning of the index exposure of a certain position, expanding or downsizing the index exposure with precision. At the same time, micro E-mini futures can completely replace traditional E-mini contracts, which can flexibly manage positions when market conditions change and make it easier to obtain deep liquidity.According to reports, since its launch in 2019, the trading volume of micro E-mini stock index contracts has exceeded 800 million contracts. Global participation remained strong, with 21% of trading volume in the non-U.S. session prior to cash opening and participants from more than 190 countries. In the first half of 2021, the average daily trading volume exceeded 460,000 contracts in non-US time.\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171411957","content_text":"面牵动市场心弦的Jackson Hole全球央行年会终于落下帷幕，美联储主席鲍威尔的鸽派发言让投资者们暂时松了一口气，但从长期来看，政策转向是大势所趋，美股依然面临众多考验。\n在周五(8月27日)的讲话中，鲍威尔着重强调了通胀走高只是暂时的，并首度明确称如果经济进展持续，他与大多数美联储官员都支持可能在今年开始缩减买债（Taper），但减码QE并不直接暗示未来的加息时间。事实上，美国远未满足加息条件，“距离充分就业还有很长的路要走”。\n鲍威尔的发言既印证了人们对Taper即将开启的广泛预期，也能避免2013年时的“缩减恐慌”。金融市场作出了类似“终于有一只靴子落地”、进而消除了一部分政策不确定性的积极反应。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，现货黄金短线从日低反弹逾10美元，不仅重回1800美元关键心理整数位，还站上1810美元。\n\n高盛分析指出，鲍威尔的讲话符合预期，他确认了近几个月的强劲就业增长以及Delta变种带来的下行风险。该行预计，美联储目的是在9月给出提前通知，在11月正式宣布开始缩减购债规模。\n具体来看，高盛预计，美联储11月正式宣布的可能性为45%，12月正式宣布的可能性为35%，推迟到2022年的可能性为20%。\n美国紧缩之路坎坷\n虽然美国货币政策紧缩这把“达摩克利斯之剑”暂时没有落下的风险，但随着美国经济好转，通胀高企，就业复苏，Taper和加息是大势所趋。\nBMO Global Asset Management首席经济学家Steven Bell近日表示，市场需要认清一个事实，那就是火已经快灭了，而货币政策依然处于紧急状态的水平，继续放松货币政策是不合适的。\n值得一提的是，这一次有不少国家已经走在美国前面，开启了紧缩之路。美国投资银行斯迪富金融公司公布的数据显示，全球以美元计价的广义货币（M2）供应量同比涨幅3月达到22%的周期性高点后，在今年年中已回落至略高于10%的水平。\n而美联储站在政策转向这个敏感路口，却依然踌躇不前，放眼望去，摆在决策者和市场面前的是诸多的不确定性。\n一方面，美国通胀依然处于高位。8月11日美国国家统计局公布的数据显示，美国7月整体CPI同比增长5.4%，高于预期增长的5.3%，持平于6月5.4%的增幅，这仍然是2008年以来的最高水平。\n\n虽然鲍威尔不断强调，当前这轮通胀只是暂时的，随着疫苗接种和疫情控制，供应赶上需求后，通胀将会消退，但部分美联储官员担忧，供应链中断和需求增长可能会持续推高通胀直至2022年及以后。\n全球央行年会前，美国费城联储行长Patrick Harker表示，美联储正面临着价格压力并未消退的挑战。他认为，通胀将远高于美联储的目标，如果美联储不采取行动，通胀将继续加速，“通胀可能不是那么短暂，这是我担心的风险。”\n这将加大美联储尽快收紧货币政策的压力。近日，全球最大对冲基金桥水的联席首席投资官Greg Jensen在展望后市时表示，届时美联储减码幅度有可能比市场预期更大，利率升速也会更快。\n另一方面 ，Delta变种病毒的肆虐给美国经济复苏前景蒙上了一层阴影。\n美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值较上月骤降11点，至70.2，创2011年12月以来最低水平。数据远低于市场预期。\n另外，美国商务部8月17日公布数据显示，美国7月零售销售环比减少1.1%，大幅超过市场预期的减少0.3%，而前值为增加0.6%。\n\n这一数据公布后，高盛随即宣布将美国三季度GDP增长预期从此前的8.5%大幅下调至5.5%，同时将2021年全年GDP增长预期从此前6.4%下调至6%，预计2022年美国全年经济增长4.5%。\n高盛警告称，Delta变种病毒对经济和通胀的影响比预期更严峻：\n\n 消费者支出和生产都受到了冲击。8月份餐饮、旅游和其他服务支出可能会下降，不过我们预计下降幅度不会太大，也不会太长。生产仍然受到供应链中断的影响，尤其是在汽车行业，这可能意味着第三季度库存重建会减少。\n\n风险正在加剧\n随着疫情蔓延，经济增速预期放缓，以及美联储货币政策收紧预期升温，美股的不确定性风险正在加剧。\n美银美林全球投资策略师Michael Hartnett预计，今年下半年美国股市将出现负回报，他对通货膨胀加剧带来的滞胀威胁表示担忧。\n摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson也认为，美股正处于回调的边缘。他建议，鉴于预期中的回调，投资者应该投资波动性较低的股票，并预测年底标普500指数会处于4000点左右，这意味当前水平下有10%的下跌空间。\n高盛则对美股的波动性作出了警告。\n高盛衍生品策略官Rocky Fishma上周预计，美股市场波动接下来会飙升，依据是VIX在4天上涨6个点后隐含波动曲线仍保持上升型，反映出波动率将继续大幅上升的预期。\n此外，一年期 VIX 指数期货价格已升至 26，接近其第二季度/第三季度范围的顶部，远高于现货，但低于其第一季度中值28。高盛指出，自从1940年以来，标普500全年实际波动率超过26的情况只有1987年股灾、2008年金融危机和2020年疫情爆发。\n对于投资者来说，运用多样化工具进行风险对冲是控制回撤的最好方法。芝商所最新小规模股指合约微型E‑迷你期货能够帮投资者进行更新精细化的风险部署。\n该工具具有更灵活、更小规模的扩充合约的优势，微型E-迷你合约仅为传统E-迷你合约规模的十分之一，其只需要较低的保证金便能进入市场，以及获取交易标普500指数、纳斯达克100指数、道琼斯工业平均指数和罗素2000美国指数的机会。\n此外，微型E-迷你期货可用于增加更多粒度，并允许微调某个持仓的指数风险敞口，精确地扩大或缩小指数风险敞口规模。同时，微型E-迷你期货可完全替代传统E-迷你合约，其可在市场条件变化时灵活地管理持仓，并更容易获取深度流动性。\n据介绍，自2019年推出以来，微型E-迷你股指合约的交易量超过 8亿份合约。全球参与度依然强劲，在现金开放前的非美国时段交易量占21%，参与者来自190多个国家。2021年上半年，在非美国时间内，平均每日交易量超过46万份合同。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"OEF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":60,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1171411957","isCrawlerRequest":true}