U.S. stock futures and global shares slipped, following days of whipsaw moves prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While VIX and VIXmain rose around 5%, Gold rose over 1%.
Oil prices rallied, rising back above $100 a barrel. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose 3% to $100.84 a barrel. Members of theInternational Energy Agency could agree as early as Tuesday to release supplies from oil reserves in an effort to keep a lid on rising crude prices.
Stock indexes around the world have been volatile in recent days as investors attempt to gauge the potential global economic impact from the invasion and resulting sanctions. Constricted supplies of Russian commodities could add to already elevated inflation, but investors hope the overall effect on the world’s biggest economies will be muted.
Ceasefire talks have failed to produce concrete results so far, but investors have welcomed the fact that they have begun. Still, Moscow is expected to increase the tempo of its assaults on major Ukrainian cities and is pouring manpower and equipment into the country.
“I am not sure what we will see from negotiations, but on the ground there will be no let up because Putin has to come away from this war with something to show for it,” said Hani Redha, a portfolio manager at PineBridge Investments. “You will only see strengthened resolve from Russia.”
The geopolitical crisis came when market sentiment was already fragile. Economies are facing the highest inflation in several decades, heaping pressure on central banks to raise interest rates. Investors are trying to gauge how the fighting in Ukraine might influence central bankers’ outlooks.
Mr. Redha said the conflict could pressure inflation even more, by threatening to constrict Russian exports of oil and gas. Russia is the single biggest gas exporter, and a major supplier of crude oil.
“I would not bet that the Fed is going to change their course,” he said. “The first few hikes are almost set in stone at this point.”
Russian markets have been dealt a heavy blow by the invasion and the ensuing sanctions, with investors jettisoning Russian stocks. A sharp, sudden interest rate rise from the nation’s central bank helped send the ruble tumbling.
On Tuesday, the ruble regained 10% of its value against the dollar, a day after falling almost 30%. Market-data services have shown limited price updates this week, suggesting few transactions are taking place. The Russian stock market remained closed, after plummeting last week.
Later in the day, investors will view the Institute for Supply Management’s survey of purchasing managers, which is expected to show U.S. factory activity continued to rise in February as the Omicron wave faded.
The yield on the benchmark 10-Year U.S. Treasury note rose to 1.843% Tuesday from 1.836% Monday. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.
In Asia Pacific, stock markets were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged up 0.2%.
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