大摩警告：任何强劲的美国经济数据都将冲击市场

华尔街见闻2021-06-28

摩根士丹利认为，市场对于平均通胀目标框架的信心已经出现下降，更强劲的经济数据可能会加剧美联储的鹰派倾向，美联储缩减购债规模的步伐和预计的加息步伐是市场面临的最大风险。 “五年来最重要”的政策会议过后，美联储虽未提及缩减QE，但释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的信号。摩根士丹利看到，尽管在会议结束之后，广泛风险市场的急剧抛售潮已经出现逆转，但会议所释放出的不确定性并未有所转圜，美联储...

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山风_8300
2021-06-28
山风_8300
?
tiongjlam
2021-06-28
tiongjlam
真的嗎？[流淚] [流淚] [流淚]

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北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利认为，市场对于平均通胀目标框架的信心已经出现下降，更强劲的经济数据可能会加剧美联储的鹰派倾向，美联储缩减购债规模的步伐和预计的加息步伐是市场面临的最大风险。\n“五年来最重要”的政策会议过后，美联储虽未提及缩减QE，但释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的信号。\n摩根士丹利看到，尽管在会议结束之后，广泛风险市场的急剧抛售潮已经出现逆转，但会议所释放出的不确定性并未有所转圜，美联储...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"MS","symbol_name":"摩根士丹利","start_time":0,"source_url":null,"article_id":"1173690181","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173690181","pubTimestamp":1624855957,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"摩根士丹利认为，市场对于平均通胀目标框架的信心已经出现下降，更强劲的经济数据可能会加剧美联储的鹰派倾向，美联储缩减购债规模的步伐和预计的加息步伐是市场面临的最大风险。\n“五年来最重要”的政策会议过后，","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"translate_title":"Morgan Stanley warns that any strong US economic data will hit the market","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5837b9eb594a0dff99860d3e30554fbb","symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9},"content_text":"摩根士丹利认为，市场对于平均通胀目标框架的信心已经出现下降，更强劲的经济数据可能会加剧美联储的鹰派倾向，美联储缩减购债规模的步伐和预计的加息步伐是市场面临的最大风险。\n“五年来最重要”的政策会议过后，美联储虽未提及缩减QE，但释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的信号。\n摩根士丹利看到，尽管在会议结束之后，广泛风险市场的急剧抛售潮已经出现逆转，但会议所释放出的不确定性并未有所转圜，美联储未来任何真正的、或是被市场料中的政策转变都有可能加剧市场不确定性。\n在这样的环境下，摩根士丹利认为，即将出炉的美国就业和通胀数据对市场的影响将被放大，更强劲的经济数据可能会加剧美联储的鹰派倾向，市场该系好安全带了。\n犹记得去年8月，美联储在全球央行年会上宣布了其对货币政策框架的重大调整：\n\n 首先，美联储不会再基于低失业率数据而先发制人地加息，实际通胀的进展将成为取消宽松政策的主要尺度；\n\n\n 其次，美联储正式采用了灵活的平均通胀目标框架（FAIT），旨在随着时间推移能实现平均2%的通胀目标，也就是在经历一定时间的低通胀之后，允许接下来一定时间内出现更高的通胀。\n\n但在摩根士丹利看来，随着美国经济在后疫情时代反弹，美联储会议显示出的鹰派分歧其实令人意外，市场对于FAIT的信心也已经出现下降：\n\n 首先，与美联储自己强调的实际通胀>通胀预期相反，尽管近期数据均逊于预期，跟广泛的就业市场指标进展不佳，\n 美联储仍对就业市场复苏的前景表示乐观。\n\n\n 比方说，非裔美国人9.1%的失业率仍远高于美国整体5.8%的失业率。\n\n\n 其次，\n 近几个月，美联储主席鲍威尔一直将通胀跟“暂时性”绑定，但他如今终于承认了上行风险。\n\n\n 这种对通胀预期（而非实际通胀）和劳动力市场的关注，最终形成了显示“利率会在2022年和2023年走得更高”的点状图，这就导致我们得出结论：\n 这是一次明显的鹰派会议。\n\n摩根士丹利还发现，根据美联储点阵图，政策制定者预计， 在首次加息后的一年里，美联储还将加息3-4次；但市场目前的预期则是，在首次加息后的12个月内，美联储只会加息2次左右。\n摩根士丹利认为，美联储缩减购债规模的步伐和预计的加息步伐是市场面临的最大风险。此外，缩减购债的类别构成、提前通知到开始缩减之间的间隔时间等等，也都是值得警惕的额外风险。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":150928350,"gmtCreate":1624883674570,"gmtModify":1703846940978,"author":{"id":"3572785300913507","authorId":"3572785300913507","name":"山风_8300","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/297d7c59c9be350172849ef10e98943c","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572785300913507","authorIdStr":"3572785300913507"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/150928350","repostId":1173690181,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173690181","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1624855957,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1173690181?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 12:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley warns: Any strong U.S. economic data will hit markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173690181","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利认为，市场对于平均通胀目标框架的信心已经出现下降，更强劲的经济数据可能会加剧美联储的鹰派倾向，美联储缩减购债规模的步伐和预计的加息步伐是市场面临的最大风险。\n“五年来最重要”的政策会议过后，","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is believed that the market's confidence in the average inflation target framework has declined, stronger economic data may exacerbate the Fed's hawkish tendency, and the pace of the Fed's tapering of bond purchases and the expected pace of rate hike are the biggest risks facing the market.</p><p>After the \"most important\" policy meeting in five years, although the Federal Reserve did not mention tapering QE, it released a signal that it is more likely to rate hike more than once two years later, that is, in 2023.</p><p>Morgan Stanley saw that although the sharp selling wave in broad risk markets has reversed after the meeting, the uncertainty released by the meeting has not changed. Any real or expected policy changes in the future of the Federal Reserve may exacerbate market uncertainty.</p><p>In this environment, Morgan Stanley believes that,<b>The impact of upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data on the market will be amplified, and stronger economic data may exacerbate the hawkish tendency of the Fed. It's time for the market to fasten its seat belts.</b></p><p>I still remember that in August last year, the Federal Reserve announced its major adjustment to its monetary policy framework at the annual meeting of global central banks:</p><p>First of all, the Federal Reserve will no longer pre-empt rate hike based on low unemployment rate data, and the progress of actual inflation will become the main yardstick for canceling easing policy; Secondly, the Federal Reserve has officially adopted the flexible average inflation target framework (FAIT), which aims to achieve an average inflation target of 2% over time, that is, after experiencing a certain period of low inflation, it allows higher inflation to occur in the next certain period of time. high inflation. But in Morgan Stanley's view, as the U.S. economy rebounds in the post-epidemic era, the hawkish differences shown at the Federal Reserve meeting are actually surprising, and the market's confidence in FAIT has also declined:</p><p>First, contrary to the Fed's own emphasis on real inflation > inflation expectations, despite recent worse-than-expected data and poor progress against broad job market indicators,<b>The Federal Reserve remains optimistic about the prospects for a job market recovery.</b>The 9.1% unemployment rate for African Americans, for example, is still much higher than the 5.8% unemployment rate for the United States as a whole. Secondly,<b>In recent months, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been tying inflation to \"temporary\", but he has now finally acknowledged the upside risks.</b>This focus on inflation expectations (rather than actual inflation) and the labor market ultimately forms a dot chart showing that \"interest rates will go higher in 2022 and 2023,\" which leads us to conclude:<b>It was a decidedly hawkish meeting.</b>Morgan Stanley also found that, according to the Fed dot plot, policymakers expect the Fed to rate hike 3-4 times in the year after the first rate hike; But the current expectation of the market is that in the 12 months after the first rate hike, the Federal Reserve will only rate hike about twice.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley,<b>The pace of the Fed's tapering of bond purchases and the expected pace of rate hike are the biggest risks facing the market.</b>In addition, the category composition of tapering bond purchases, the interval between advance notice and the start of tapering, etc. are also additional risks worthy of vigilance.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley warns: Any strong U.S. economic data will hit markets\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 12:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is believed that the market's confidence in the average inflation target framework has declined, stronger economic data may exacerbate the Fed's hawkish tendency, and the pace of the Fed's tapering of bond purchases and the expected pace of rate hike are the biggest risks facing the market.</p><p>After the \"most important\" policy meeting in five years, although the Federal Reserve did not mention tapering QE, it released a signal that it is more likely to rate hike more than once two years later, that is, in 2023.</p><p>Morgan Stanley saw that although the sharp selling wave in broad risk markets has reversed after the meeting, the uncertainty released by the meeting has not changed. Any real or expected policy changes in the future of the Federal Reserve may exacerbate market uncertainty.</p><p>In this environment, Morgan Stanley believes that,<b>The impact of upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data on the market will be amplified, and stronger economic data may exacerbate the hawkish tendency of the Fed. It's time for the market to fasten its seat belts.</b></p><p>I still remember that in August last year, the Federal Reserve announced its major adjustment to its monetary policy framework at the annual meeting of global central banks:</p><p>First of all, the Federal Reserve will no longer pre-empt rate hike based on low unemployment rate data, and the progress of actual inflation will become the main yardstick for canceling easing policy; Secondly, the Federal Reserve has officially adopted the flexible average inflation target framework (FAIT), which aims to achieve an average inflation target of 2% over time, that is, after experiencing a certain period of low inflation, it allows higher inflation to occur in the next certain period of time. high inflation. But in Morgan Stanley's view, as the U.S. economy rebounds in the post-epidemic era, the hawkish differences shown at the Federal Reserve meeting are actually surprising, and the market's confidence in FAIT has also declined:</p><p>First, contrary to the Fed's own emphasis on real inflation > inflation expectations, despite recent worse-than-expected data and poor progress against broad job market indicators,<b>The Federal Reserve remains optimistic about the prospects for a job market recovery.</b>The 9.1% unemployment rate for African Americans, for example, is still much higher than the 5.8% unemployment rate for the United States as a whole. Secondly,<b>In recent months, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been tying inflation to \"temporary\", but he has now finally acknowledged the upside risks.</b>This focus on inflation expectations (rather than actual inflation) and the labor market ultimately forms a dot chart showing that \"interest rates will go higher in 2022 and 2023,\" which leads us to conclude:<b>It was a decidedly hawkish meeting.</b>Morgan Stanley also found that, according to the Fed dot plot, policymakers expect the Fed to rate hike 3-4 times in the year after the first rate hike; But the current expectation of the market is that in the 12 months after the first rate hike, the Federal Reserve will only rate hike about twice.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley,<b>The pace of the Fed's tapering of bond purchases and the expected pace of rate hike are the biggest risks facing the market.</b>In addition, the category composition of tapering bond purchases, the interval between advance notice and the start of tapering, etc. are also additional risks worthy of vigilance.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173690181","content_text":"摩根士丹利认为，市场对于平均通胀目标框架的信心已经出现下降，更强劲的经济数据可能会加剧美联储的鹰派倾向，美联储缩减购债规模的步伐和预计的加息步伐是市场面临的最大风险。\n“五年来最重要”的政策会议过后，美联储虽未提及缩减QE，但释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的信号。\n摩根士丹利看到，尽管在会议结束之后，广泛风险市场的急剧抛售潮已经出现逆转，但会议所释放出的不确定性并未有所转圜，美联储未来任何真正的、或是被市场料中的政策转变都有可能加剧市场不确定性。\n在这样的环境下，摩根士丹利认为，即将出炉的美国就业和通胀数据对市场的影响将被放大，更强劲的经济数据可能会加剧美联储的鹰派倾向，市场该系好安全带了。\n犹记得去年8月，美联储在全球央行年会上宣布了其对货币政策框架的重大调整：\n\n 首先，美联储不会再基于低失业率数据而先发制人地加息，实际通胀的进展将成为取消宽松政策的主要尺度；\n\n\n 其次，美联储正式采用了灵活的平均通胀目标框架（FAIT），旨在随着时间推移能实现平均2%的通胀目标，也就是在经历一定时间的低通胀之后，允许接下来一定时间内出现更高的通胀。\n\n但在摩根士丹利看来，随着美国经济在后疫情时代反弹，美联储会议显示出的鹰派分歧其实令人意外，市场对于FAIT的信心也已经出现下降：\n\n 首先，与美联储自己强调的实际通胀>通胀预期相反，尽管近期数据均逊于预期，跟广泛的就业市场指标进展不佳，\n 美联储仍对就业市场复苏的前景表示乐观。\n\n\n 比方说，非裔美国人9.1%的失业率仍远高于美国整体5.8%的失业率。\n\n\n 其次，\n 近几个月，美联储主席鲍威尔一直将通胀跟“暂时性”绑定，但他如今终于承认了上行风险。\n\n\n 这种对通胀预期（而非实际通胀）和劳动力市场的关注，最终形成了显示“利率会在2022年和2023年走得更高”的点状图，这就导致我们得出结论：\n 这是一次明显的鹰派会议。\n\n摩根士丹利还发现，根据美联储点阵图，政策制定者预计， 在首次加息后的一年里，美联储还将加息3-4次；但市场目前的预期则是，在首次加息后的12个月内，美联储只会加息2次左右。\n摩根士丹利认为，美联储缩减购债规模的步伐和预计的加息步伐是市场面临的最大风险。此外，缩减购债的类别构成、提前通知到开始缩减之间的间隔时间等等，也都是值得警惕的额外风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":127564479,"gmtCreate":1624857459191,"gmtModify":1703846358965,"author":{"id":"3567788901897197","authorId":"3567788901897197","name":"tiongjlam","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/17e39c79b773fe9aa40e2c4a5bce11d6","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567788901897197","authorIdStr":"3567788901897197"},"htmlText":"真的嗎？[流淚]&nbsp;[流淚]&nbsp;[流淚]&nbsp;","listText":"真的嗎？[流淚]&nbsp;[流淚]&nbsp;[流淚]&nbsp;","text":"真的嗎？[流淚] [流淚] [流淚]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/127564479","repostId":1173690181,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173690181","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1624855957,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1173690181?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-28 12:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley warns: Any strong U.S. economic data will hit markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173690181","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摩根士丹利认为，市场对于平均通胀目标框架的信心已经出现下降，更强劲的经济数据可能会加剧美联储的鹰派倾向，美联储缩减购债规模的步伐和预计的加息步伐是市场面临的最大风险。\n“五年来最重要”的政策会议过后，","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is believed that the market's confidence in the average inflation target framework has declined, stronger economic data may exacerbate the Fed's hawkish tendency, and the pace of the Fed's tapering of bond purchases and the expected pace of rate hike are the biggest risks facing the market.</p><p>After the \"most important\" policy meeting in five years, although the Federal Reserve did not mention tapering QE, it released a signal that it is more likely to rate hike more than once two years later, that is, in 2023.</p><p>Morgan Stanley saw that although the sharp selling wave in broad risk markets has reversed after the meeting, the uncertainty released by the meeting has not changed. Any real or expected policy changes in the future of the Federal Reserve may exacerbate market uncertainty.</p><p>In this environment, Morgan Stanley believes that,<b>The impact of upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data on the market will be amplified, and stronger economic data may exacerbate the hawkish tendency of the Fed. It's time for the market to fasten its seat belts.</b></p><p>I still remember that in August last year, the Federal Reserve announced its major adjustment to its monetary policy framework at the annual meeting of global central banks:</p><p>First of all, the Federal Reserve will no longer pre-empt rate hike based on low unemployment rate data, and the progress of actual inflation will become the main yardstick for canceling easing policy; Secondly, the Federal Reserve has officially adopted the flexible average inflation target framework (FAIT), which aims to achieve an average inflation target of 2% over time, that is, after experiencing a certain period of low inflation, it allows higher inflation to occur in the next certain period of time. high inflation. But in Morgan Stanley's view, as the U.S. economy rebounds in the post-epidemic era, the hawkish differences shown at the Federal Reserve meeting are actually surprising, and the market's confidence in FAIT has also declined:</p><p>First, contrary to the Fed's own emphasis on real inflation > inflation expectations, despite recent worse-than-expected data and poor progress against broad job market indicators,<b>The Federal Reserve remains optimistic about the prospects for a job market recovery.</b>The 9.1% unemployment rate for African Americans, for example, is still much higher than the 5.8% unemployment rate for the United States as a whole. Secondly,<b>In recent months, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been tying inflation to \"temporary\", but he has now finally acknowledged the upside risks.</b>This focus on inflation expectations (rather than actual inflation) and the labor market ultimately forms a dot chart showing that \"interest rates will go higher in 2022 and 2023,\" which leads us to conclude:<b>It was a decidedly hawkish meeting.</b>Morgan Stanley also found that, according to the Fed dot plot, policymakers expect the Fed to rate hike 3-4 times in the year after the first rate hike; But the current expectation of the market is that in the 12 months after the first rate hike, the Federal Reserve will only rate hike about twice.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley,<b>The pace of the Fed's tapering of bond purchases and the expected pace of rate hike are the biggest risks facing the market.</b>In addition, the category composition of tapering bond purchases, the interval between advance notice and the start of tapering, etc. are also additional risks worthy of vigilance.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley warns: Any strong U.S. economic data will hit markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley warns: Any strong U.S. economic data will hit markets\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-28 12:52</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>It is believed that the market's confidence in the average inflation target framework has declined, stronger economic data may exacerbate the Fed's hawkish tendency, and the pace of the Fed's tapering of bond purchases and the expected pace of rate hike are the biggest risks facing the market.</p><p>After the \"most important\" policy meeting in five years, although the Federal Reserve did not mention tapering QE, it released a signal that it is more likely to rate hike more than once two years later, that is, in 2023.</p><p>Morgan Stanley saw that although the sharp selling wave in broad risk markets has reversed after the meeting, the uncertainty released by the meeting has not changed. Any real or expected policy changes in the future of the Federal Reserve may exacerbate market uncertainty.</p><p>In this environment, Morgan Stanley believes that,<b>The impact of upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data on the market will be amplified, and stronger economic data may exacerbate the hawkish tendency of the Fed. It's time for the market to fasten its seat belts.</b></p><p>I still remember that in August last year, the Federal Reserve announced its major adjustment to its monetary policy framework at the annual meeting of global central banks:</p><p>First of all, the Federal Reserve will no longer pre-empt rate hike based on low unemployment rate data, and the progress of actual inflation will become the main yardstick for canceling easing policy; Secondly, the Federal Reserve has officially adopted the flexible average inflation target framework (FAIT), which aims to achieve an average inflation target of 2% over time, that is, after experiencing a certain period of low inflation, it allows higher inflation to occur in the next certain period of time. high inflation. But in Morgan Stanley's view, as the U.S. economy rebounds in the post-epidemic era, the hawkish differences shown at the Federal Reserve meeting are actually surprising, and the market's confidence in FAIT has also declined:</p><p>First, contrary to the Fed's own emphasis on real inflation > inflation expectations, despite recent worse-than-expected data and poor progress against broad job market indicators,<b>The Federal Reserve remains optimistic about the prospects for a job market recovery.</b>The 9.1% unemployment rate for African Americans, for example, is still much higher than the 5.8% unemployment rate for the United States as a whole. Secondly,<b>In recent months, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been tying inflation to \"temporary\", but he has now finally acknowledged the upside risks.</b>This focus on inflation expectations (rather than actual inflation) and the labor market ultimately forms a dot chart showing that \"interest rates will go higher in 2022 and 2023,\" which leads us to conclude:<b>It was a decidedly hawkish meeting.</b>Morgan Stanley also found that, according to the Fed dot plot, policymakers expect the Fed to rate hike 3-4 times in the year after the first rate hike; But the current expectation of the market is that in the 12 months after the first rate hike, the Federal Reserve will only rate hike about twice.</p><p>According to Morgan Stanley,<b>The pace of the Fed's tapering of bond purchases and the expected pace of rate hike are the biggest risks facing the market.</b>In addition, the category composition of tapering bond purchases, the interval between advance notice and the start of tapering, etc. are also additional risks worthy of vigilance.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a82005fdd5a20870413111b3adc1a547","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173690181","content_text":"摩根士丹利认为，市场对于平均通胀目标框架的信心已经出现下降，更强劲的经济数据可能会加剧美联储的鹰派倾向，美联储缩减购债规模的步伐和预计的加息步伐是市场面临的最大风险。\n“五年来最重要”的政策会议过后，美联储虽未提及缩减QE，但释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的信号。\n摩根士丹利看到，尽管在会议结束之后，广泛风险市场的急剧抛售潮已经出现逆转，但会议所释放出的不确定性并未有所转圜，美联储未来任何真正的、或是被市场料中的政策转变都有可能加剧市场不确定性。\n在这样的环境下，摩根士丹利认为，即将出炉的美国就业和通胀数据对市场的影响将被放大，更强劲的经济数据可能会加剧美联储的鹰派倾向，市场该系好安全带了。\n犹记得去年8月，美联储在全球央行年会上宣布了其对货币政策框架的重大调整：\n\n 首先，美联储不会再基于低失业率数据而先发制人地加息，实际通胀的进展将成为取消宽松政策的主要尺度；\n\n\n 其次，美联储正式采用了灵活的平均通胀目标框架（FAIT），旨在随着时间推移能实现平均2%的通胀目标，也就是在经历一定时间的低通胀之后，允许接下来一定时间内出现更高的通胀。\n\n但在摩根士丹利看来，随着美国经济在后疫情时代反弹，美联储会议显示出的鹰派分歧其实令人意外，市场对于FAIT的信心也已经出现下降：\n\n 首先，与美联储自己强调的实际通胀>通胀预期相反，尽管近期数据均逊于预期，跟广泛的就业市场指标进展不佳，\n 美联储仍对就业市场复苏的前景表示乐观。\n\n\n 比方说，非裔美国人9.1%的失业率仍远高于美国整体5.8%的失业率。\n\n\n 其次，\n 近几个月，美联储主席鲍威尔一直将通胀跟“暂时性”绑定，但他如今终于承认了上行风险。\n\n\n 这种对通胀预期（而非实际通胀）和劳动力市场的关注，最终形成了显示“利率会在2022年和2023年走得更高”的点状图，这就导致我们得出结论：\n 这是一次明显的鹰派会议。\n\n摩根士丹利还发现，根据美联储点阵图，政策制定者预计， 在首次加息后的一年里，美联储还将加息3-4次；但市场目前的预期则是，在首次加息后的12个月内，美联储只会加息2次左右。\n摩根士丹利认为，美联储缩减购债规模的步伐和预计的加息步伐是市场面临的最大风险。此外，缩减购债的类别构成、提前通知到开始缩减之间的间隔时间等等，也都是值得警惕的额外风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":16,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1173690181","isCrawlerRequest":true}