Option Focus | Coinbase's $2 Million Bull Call Spread Targets $230–$310 by 2026, but $1.77 Million Bear Put Spread and Net Bearish Flow Reveal Defensive Undertow

Option Witch07:02

Coinbase Global, Inc. closed at $186.49, up 8.20%.

Large options activity showed a mix of long-term bullish positioning and nearer-term caution. The most notable trade was a $2.00 million net debit call spread targeting upside into 2026, while a $1.77 million net debit put spread reflected bearish protection. Overall bulk flow leaned bearish, with a net bearish gap of $0.85 million between bullish and bearish premium.

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Options Indicators

COIN’s implied volatility is 73.23%, while its IV percentile stands at 51.39%, which places current volatility in a neutral range rather than an extreme one. With the IV/HV ratio at 0.99, implied volatility is essentially in line with historical volatility, suggesting options are being priced fairly overall rather than at a clear discount or premium. The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.83.

Large Trades

A bullish call spread with a $2.00 million net debit stood out as the largest displayed trade, built by buying the October 16, 2026 $230.00 calls and selling the October 16, 2026 $310.00 calls. With COIN referenced at $186.49, both strikes are out of the money, making this a defined-risk bullish structure that profits from upside over the long term while capping gains above $310.00. The net debit shows the trader paid premium upfront, pointing to a directional bullish bet rather than premium collection, likely expressing confidence that COIN can rally materially over time without taking on the full cost of outright call purchases.

A bearish put spread with a $1.77 million net debit was the other featured block, created by buying the August 28, 2026 $195.00 puts and selling the August 28, 2026 $170.00 puts. Against the $186.49 reference price, the long $195.00 put is in the money while the short $170.00 put is out of the money, forming a defined-risk bearish position aimed at benefiting from downside into expiration. Because this was opened for a net debit, the trade reflects a direct directional bearish view or downside hedge, with the short lower-strike put helping reduce cost while also limiting maximum payoff below $170.00. Overall, bulk-order sentiment leans bearish, with $3.39 million in bullish flow versus $4.25 million in bearish flow, for a net bearish gap of $0.85 million. While the largest single trade was a long-dated upside call spread, the full large-trade set shows heavier downside positioning, suggesting the market is balancing some longer-term upside interest against a more dominant near- to medium-term cautious or defensive stance on COIN.

Strategy Reference

Given the net bearish flow and neutral IV percentile, a trader preferring lower margin could sell a call spread above resistance, such as the $230/$310 call spread, or sell the $195 put only if willing to accept assignment risk near the money.

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