Alphabet is scheduled to report results for the first quarter of 2025 after market close on Thursday, April 24, 2025.
Alphabet's Q1 revenue is expected to be $75.434 billion, adjusted net income will be $24.783 billion, and adjusted EPS is expected to be $2.032, according to Bloomberg's consistent expectations.
Previous Quarter Review
There’s little to say about Alphabet’s financial results, which have been strong for years. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a nice 12% increase in revenue to $96.5 billion. Operating profit also rose 31% to $31 billion, with net income of $26.5 billion (up 28%). Google Search and YouTube continued to grow strongly, and Google Cloud revenue grew significantly by 30%.
Google Cloud Growth Seen Around 29%, Driven by Acceleration in AI-Driven Workloads
Investors have been closely monitoring the trend of the Cloud business. Cloud segment growth may accelerate sequentially through traction with Gemini 2.5 and AI workload contribution. Consensus is estimating Q1 Cloud revenue of $12.3 billion, up 28.6% year-on-year. For Q1, estimates for operating profit margin range from 10% to 19% for the Google Cloud business.
This division is poised to benefit significantly from the increasing demand for cloud computing services, particularly as AI models become more resource-intensive. Analysts predict that if Google Cloud can reach $100 billion in annual revenue with a profit margin of 25%, it could contribute $25 billion to Alphabet's operating income—an essential growth driver for the company.
Search Advertising Revenue -- in Focus With Gemini, AI Overview Integration -- Expected to Rise 9%
Google's cost-per-click growth and Gemini integration will likely be the main drivers of its Search segment, where gains could moderate to around 9% in 1Q. AI Overviews and competition from other LLM-based search providers such as ChatGPT might weigh on increases in paid clicks.
Alphabet generates most of its billions in revenue from clicks on search ads. Google search revenue hit $54 billion last quarter, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase. This growth comes amidst rising competition from AI startups like OpenAI, which has captured significant market attention with its ChatGPT service, reportedly boasting 800 million users. While this number pales in comparison to the billions who utilize Google Search, the rapid ascent of ChatGPT has caused some trepidation among investors.
In light of these developments, Alphabet's decision to invest $75 billion in AI technology is crucial. This investment aims to enhance its capabilities, particularly in integrating AI into Google Search effectively. Capex guidance of $75 billion will weigh on free cash flow, suggesting that its tariff exposure is limited to cloud infrastructure and hardware sales, which are expected to be around a 50-100-bp headwind to gross margin.
Buybacks and Dividends Are Strong Growth Catalysts
Since last year, Alphabet has become a dividend stock. That, of course, makes it interesting for investors looking for income. With an annual dividend of $0.80 per share, it comes down to a dividend yield of 0.5%. That is not much, and instead Alphabet buys back its own shares. And that on a large scale. Including $62 billion in share buybacks, the total shareholder return comes to 2.7%. The payout ratio is very low and therefore certainly offers room for future dividend increases.
Regulatory and Legal Risks
On Thursday, a federal judge said Google has violated antitrust law through its dominance of two online advertising markets: the open-web display publisher ad server market and the open-web display ad exchange market.
U.S. District Judge Leonie Brinkema in Alexandria, Virginia, found Google liable for "willfully acquiring and maintaining monopoly power" in markets for publisher ad servers and the market for ad exchanges which sit between buyers and sellers.
“We won half of this case and we will appeal the other half,” Lee-Anne Mulholland, Google’s regulatory affairs executive, posted on the company’s social media account. “We disagree with the Court’s decision regarding our publisher tools. Publishers have many options and they choose Google because our ad tech tools are simple, affordable and effective.”
Google's shares dropped 1.4% after Thursday's ruling. Experts previously said the financial hit from a loss in the case would be minimal for the tech giant best known for its search engine.
Wall Street Analysts’ Opinion
Citi Cuts Alphabet Price Target to $195 While Maintaining Buy Rating
Citigroup lowered its price target on Alphabet to $195 from $229, keeping a Buy rating as the firm remains optimistic about the company's long-term AI strategy despite near-term advertising headwinds.
The move comes after Google's Cloud Next conference, where Citi analysts pointed to meaningful progress in artificial intelligence, including the rollout of Gemini 2.5 models, new AI agents, and upgrades to infrastructure like TPU v7. While these advancements show promise, Citi flagged the broader online ad market as a weak spot, citing uncertainty tied to tariffs.
Citi expects more clarity on the company's product roadmap at Google I/O on May 20.
Google GenAI, AI Cloud Services Drive Analyst Confidence In Long-Term Growth
That’s according to Needham analyst Laura Martin, who reiterated Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, with a Buy and a $178 price target on Wednesday.
She expects GenAI to aid Google’s internal operations and increase revenue growth. Martin adds that Google Cloud will generate revenue from both LLMs and the applications built upon them.
GenAI’s LLMs must be fed millions of data points every day. Google’s search engine and YouTube platform give the Gemini LLM competitive advantages and a deep moat, she says.
Ultimately, GenAI will disrupt content creation, user behavior, and business models.
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