The global leader in AI computing power, NVIDIA, is confronting significant challenges in its supply chain. As the production timeline for next-generation AI accelerators approaches, the company may need to adjust its procurement strategy and relax technical specifications for fourth-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM4), prioritizing supply stability over peak performance. This shift comes as major memory chip suppliers face difficulties in expanding production capacity and improving yield rates.
According to industry reports, although Samsung Electronics recently announced that HBM4 is nearing mass production—slightly ahead of competitors SK Hynix and Micron—the overall supply dynamics will still depend on NVIDIA’s final procurement decisions. Current indications suggest that even industry leaders are struggling to meet NVIDIA’s highest performance standard of 11.7Gbps while ensuring large-scale supply.
This potential strategic adjustment reflects ongoing tensions in the semiconductor supply chain. If NVIDIA insists on the highest performance standards, mass production of its next-generation AI chip, codenamed Rubin, could be delayed due to shortages of critical components. Market expectations suggest that NVIDIA is likely to adopt a more pragmatic approach, procuring both the highest-spec HBM4 and slightly lower-spec versions to balance performance needs with supply chain security.
This shift is critical for investors, as it will not only affect the launch schedule of NVIDIA’s new products but also reshape the competitive landscape of the memory chip market. With memory chip shortages expected to be more severe this year than last, the ability of suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix to ensure stable delivery under relaxed specifications will be key to gaining market share.
Samsung holds an advantage in certification, but concerns remain about mass production yield. Although Samsung Electronics is leading in NVIDIA’s HBM4 qualification tests, this does not mean supply issues are fully resolved. Market attention has shifted from delivery speed to overall supply capacity. Reports indicate that if NVIDIA strictly enforces the 11.7Gbps specification, Samsung’s current production capacity may be insufficient to meet the large-scale production demands of the Rubin chip.
The main constraints come from yield rates and production capacity. As of this month, Samsung’s 1c DRAM yield is estimated at around 60%, and when advanced back-end packaging processes are factored in, the effective yield decreases further. Additionally, Samsung’s monthly 1c DRAM production capacity at the end of last year was approximately 60,000 to 70,000 wafers—a scale insufficient to fully meet NVIDIA’s HBM4 demand. Although Samsung is pursuing new investments and production line conversions, capacity ramp-up will take time, making it difficult to significantly increase supply in the short term.
SK Hynix faces performance challenges, with hardware optimizations still underway. As another key player in NVIDIA’s HBM supply chain, SK Hynix is also encountering technical hurdles. Reports indicate that although SK Hynix has secured about 60% of NVIDIA’s HBM4 allocation, its products faced difficulties achieving 11Gbps-level performance in early reliability assessments.
It is reported that SK Hynix is currently working on hardware improvements to address these performance shortcomings, but a final solution has not yet been confirmed. This technical bottleneck increases the risk of NVIDIA relying solely on the highest-spec products, compelling the company to reassess technical requirements for different suppliers.
A dual-track procurement strategy is likely to be adopted to ensure memory chip supply stability. Given the challenges on the supply side, NVIDIA is expected to implement a flexible procurement strategy. Industry sources suggest that NVIDIA may procure both the top-tier 11.7Gbps HBM4 and slightly lower-spec versions, such as 10.6Gbps.
This strategic adjustment aims to reduce technical pressure on suppliers, making it more feasible for Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron to achieve scaled supply. Further reports indicate that, against the backdrop of worsening memory chip shortages, NVIDIA’s relaxation of HBM4 performance standards is widely seen as a necessary step to ensure continued supply stability. This is crucial for the timely delivery of next-generation AI infrastructure.
Comments