Wall Street analysts are optimistic about Nike's (NKE.US) upcoming Q2 FY2026 earnings report, expecting positive momentum in consumer reception of new products and a rebound in wholesale performance. While challenges remain in China, cleaner inventory levels and strength in North America may offset weaknesses.
Sam Poser, an analyst at Williams Trading, noted that an "inflection point is emerging," with accelerating trends expected in 2026. He anticipates Q2 results and Q3 guidance will likely exceed consensus estimates.
The Jordan brand and Nike running footwear are gaining traction, with retailers reporting improved product availability. Wholesale revenue growth and sell-through rates are strengthening outside Greater China. However, Nike’s direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales may not improve until FY2027.
New product launches, including the Vomero Plus, Pegasus Premium, and retro Jordan models, are driving North American sales. The Air Jordan 4 (Black Cat) sold out quickly during Black Friday, and the upcoming Air Jordan 11 (Gamma) is expected to perform even better. Nike’s shift toward fewer but larger product drops is creating high-impact release cycles.
While Dunk sales remain weak, Air Force One is showing year-over-year growth. Increased shipments of core, sub-$100 footwear to family and department store channels are offsetting Dunk softness. Nike’s past DTC pivot led to lost sales in these channels, but recent partnerships with retailers like Shoe Show and Amazon are being managed more strategically.
Goldman Sachs analysts highlighted that tariff pressures are easing, allowing Nike, Amazon, and Walmart to focus on channel and pricing optimizations. Orders for Nike’s Swoosh line are expected to rise significantly in spring 2026 (January–March), with further growth likely in May–July.
Leadership changes, including the removal of Chief Commercial Officer Craig Williams, are seen as beneficial. BTIG analyst Robert Drbul noted Nike’s strategic progress, expecting measurable advancements in its "Win Now" and "Sport Offense" initiatives. He forecasts Nike’s long-term operating margin could rebound above 12%, up from 6.5% this year.
For Q2, Drbul projects revenue of $12.2 billion (down 1% YoY but up 4% QoQ) and adjusted EPS of $0.36. Looking ahead, Nike plans to launch the Mind 001 ($95 slides) and Mind 002 ($145 sneakers) in early 2026, marketed as pre-game footwear.
Nike’s Project Amplify, a dynamic shoe system developed with robotics firm Dephy, aims to enhance running and walking efficiency. Though still in testing, Drbul sees potential for a consumer launch in coming years.
Nike’s high-profile presence in events like the Super Bowl, NBA All-Star Weekend, and the 2026 World Cup (hosted by the U.S. for the first time in 32 years) is expected to boost brand visibility. Additionally, the Nike Cortez, a retro sneaker priced under $100, is gaining popularity, with searches up 51% YoY.
Jefferies analyst Randal Konik expects Nike to slightly beat Q2 consensus estimates ($0.38 EPS, $12.21B revenue), with stronger performance in running, wholesale, and North America. Discounts were shallower this Black Friday, reflecting tighter inventory and pricing power.
"Simply put, Nike has largely cleared excess inventory, setting the stage for margin recovery," Konik concluded.
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