鲍威尔讲话的“市场意义”：没有收紧，只有“刺激方式转换”

华尔街见闻2021-08-30

美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派讲话，让市场松了一口气，更重要的是，美联储向市场传递了一个信号，Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。据申万宏源分析师傅静涛总结，鲍威尔的讲话有四层要点： (1)年内开始Taper，但并未明确Taper的具体时间和节奏，这是一种偏鸽的方式。 (2) QE全部退出，也不意味着开始筹备加息，加息的条件被设定在了充分就业。美联储有意让...

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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

zh2021
2021-08-31
zh2021
閱
hhyw
2021-08-31
hhyw
高處不勝寒??
Kenwong
2021-08-31
Kenwong
?
- Shirley2208:
  ?
- hhyw:
  好
Youn7276
2021-08-31
Youn7276
閱！
磐石533
2021-08-31
磐石533
美利堅合衆國✧*。٩(ˊωˋ*)و✧*。
AB_Iphone
2021-08-30
AB_Iphone
真的嗎？
- jianguang:
  Yeah
- Miaw:
  真真假假

Leave a comment

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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔讲话的“市场意义”：没有收紧，只有“刺激方式转换”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-08-30 09:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派讲话，让市场松了一口气，更重要的是，美联储向市场传递了一个信号，Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n据申万宏源分析师傅静涛总结，鲍威尔的讲话有四层要点：\n\n (1)年内开始Taper，但并未明确Taper的具体时间和节奏，这是一种偏鸽的方式。\n\n\n (2) QE全部退出，也不意味着开始筹备加息，加息的条件被设定在了充分就业。美联储有意让...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"QID","symbol_name":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","start_time":0,"source_url":null,"article_id":"1191822782","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/499d73ece33aa33a20d67cc087f64953"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191822782","pubTimestamp":1630287604,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"translate_title":"The \"market significance\" of Powell's speech: there is no tightening, only \"stimulus mode change\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/754d7d03b138216509a08ca6b007db7f","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9},"content_text":"美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派讲话，让市场松了一口气，更重要的是，美联储向市场传递了一个信号，Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n据申万宏源分析师傅静涛总结，鲍威尔的讲话有四层要点：\n\n (1)年内开始Taper，但并未明确Taper的具体时间和节奏，这是一种偏鸽的方式。\n\n\n (2) QE全部退出，也不意味着开始筹备加息，加息的条件被设定在了充分就业。美联储有意让Taper与后续进一步紧缩脱钩。\n\n\n (3)通胀回升“已取得实质性进展”；就业恢复也取得明显进展，但失业率依然过高，Delta疫情增加了经济恢复的风险。\n\n\n (4) 1950 年的思考：不要试图抵消临时性的通胀波动。如今，劳动力市场缺口仍较大，疫情仍在继续，因为临时性通胀紧缩可能特别有害。\n\n傅静涛指出，比鸽派表态更重要的是，美联储似乎已经成功淡化了推进Taper的意义，包含三个层面：\n\n (1)能Taper不意味着能加息，Taper 的条件是就业市场恢复，而加息的条件是完全就业。美联储淡化Taper 对于后续紧缩的信号意义。\n\n\n (2)美联储给出Taper明确信号+承认当前经济不确定性，淡化了Taper对投资时钟转换的意义(从类滞胀到过热)。在美国银行间有大量冗余流动性(美联储逆回购操作量近期保持在每天 1 万亿美元以上)的情况下，Taper初期，流动性环境仍将保持宽松。所以，不指向后续紧缩、不指向投资时钟变化的Taper明确信号可能无法成为中短期市场的主要矛盾。\n\n\n\n\n\n (3) Taper 甚至不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n\n傅静涛认为，未来一段时间，与其说美国将迎来政策收紧，不如说美国处于“刺激方式转换”的窗口期。类滞胀的环境下，货币政策的有效性下降，银行间流动性冗余也指示后续没必要进一步宽松。解决复苏不平衡的问题，更有效的肯定是财政政策：\n\n 财政货币化的机制犹在，而未来一段时间，恰恰就是美国财政政策发力的验证期，这可能仍需要低利率环境，以及总体宽松的银行间流动性环境相配合。所以，我们将当前美国政策定位为“刺激方式转换”而非“宽松退出”。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":818045843,"gmtCreate":1630368142082,"gmtModify":1676530280959,"author":{"id":"3574387078391491","authorId":"3574387078391491","name":"zh2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c227b611b9691752cedc6b263256bae1","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574387078391491","authorIdStr":"3574387078391491"},"htmlText":"閱","listText":"閱","text":"閱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818045843","repostId":1191822782,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191822782","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1630287604,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191822782?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 09:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191822782","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。","content":"<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole gave the market a sigh of relief. More importantly, the Federal Reserve sent a signal to the market that Taper does not mean that the United States is beginning to end stimulus.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Analyst Fu Jingtao concluded that Powell's speech has four key points:</p><p>(1) Start Taper within the year, but the specific time and rhythm of Taper are not specified. This is a dove-oriented way. (2) The complete withdrawal of QE does not mean the beginning of preparations for the rate hike. rate hike's conditions are set at full employment. The Fed intends to decouple Taper from subsequent further tightening. (3) \"substantial progress has been made\" in the recovery of inflation; Employment recovery has also made significant progress, but the unemployment rate is still too high, and the Delta epidemic has increased the risk of economic recovery. (4) Thoughts in 1950: Don't try to offset temporary inflationary fluctuations. Today, the labor market gap is still wide and the pandemic continues as a temporary inflationary crunch can be particularly harmful. Fu Jingtao pointed out that more importantly than the dovish statement, the Federal Reserve seems to have successfully downplayed the significance of promoting Taper, which includes three levels:</p><p>(1) Being able to Taper does not mean being able to rate hike. The condition of Taper is the recovery of the job market, while the condition of rate hike is full employment. The Fed downplayed Taper's signal significance for subsequent tightening. (2) The Federal Reserve gave Taper a clear signal + acknowledged the current economic uncertainty, downplaying Taper's significance for the investment clock shift (from quasi-stagflation to overheating). In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>With a large amount of redundant liquidity (the Fed's reverse repurchase operation volume has recently remained above US $1 trillion per day), the liquidity environment will remain loose in the early stage of Taper. Therefore, Taper's clear signal that does not point to subsequent tightening or changes in the investment clock may not become the main contradiction in the short-to medium-term market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae82bf29b8078cf9d30d5e5ee922308\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(3) Taper doesn't even mean that the United States is beginning to end the stimulus. Fu Jingtao believes that in the future, rather than saying that the United States will usher in policy tightening, it is better to say that the United States is in a window period of \"stimulus mode conversion\". In a stagflation-like environment, the effectiveness of monetary policy has declined, and the redundancy of inter-bank liquidity also indicates that there is no need for further easing in the future. To solve the problem of unbalanced recovery, fiscal policy is definitely more effective:</p><p>The mechanism of fiscal monetization still exists, and the future period will be precisely the verification period of U.S. fiscal policy, which may still require a low interest rate environment and an overall loose inter-bank liquidity environment. Therefore, we position the current U.S. policy as \"stimulus mode conversion\" rather than \"loose exit\".</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 09:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole gave the market a sigh of relief. More importantly, the Federal Reserve sent a signal to the market that Taper does not mean that the United States is beginning to end stimulus.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Analyst Fu Jingtao concluded that Powell's speech has four key points:</p><p>(1) Start Taper within the year, but the specific time and rhythm of Taper are not specified. This is a dove-oriented way. (2) The complete withdrawal of QE does not mean the beginning of preparations for the rate hike. rate hike's conditions are set at full employment. The Fed intends to decouple Taper from subsequent further tightening. (3) \"substantial progress has been made\" in the recovery of inflation; Employment recovery has also made significant progress, but the unemployment rate is still too high, and the Delta epidemic has increased the risk of economic recovery. (4) Thoughts in 1950: Don't try to offset temporary inflationary fluctuations. Today, the labor market gap is still wide and the pandemic continues as a temporary inflationary crunch can be particularly harmful. Fu Jingtao pointed out that more importantly than the dovish statement, the Federal Reserve seems to have successfully downplayed the significance of promoting Taper, which includes three levels:</p><p>(1) Being able to Taper does not mean being able to rate hike. The condition of Taper is the recovery of the job market, while the condition of rate hike is full employment. The Fed downplayed Taper's signal significance for subsequent tightening. (2) The Federal Reserve gave Taper a clear signal + acknowledged the current economic uncertainty, downplaying Taper's significance for the investment clock shift (from quasi-stagflation to overheating). In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>With a large amount of redundant liquidity (the Fed's reverse repurchase operation volume has recently remained above US $1 trillion per day), the liquidity environment will remain loose in the early stage of Taper. Therefore, Taper's clear signal that does not point to subsequent tightening or changes in the investment clock may not become the main contradiction in the short-to medium-term market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae82bf29b8078cf9d30d5e5ee922308\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(3) Taper doesn't even mean that the United States is beginning to end the stimulus. Fu Jingtao believes that in the future, rather than saying that the United States will usher in policy tightening, it is better to say that the United States is in a window period of \"stimulus mode conversion\". In a stagflation-like environment, the effectiveness of monetary policy has declined, and the redundancy of inter-bank liquidity also indicates that there is no need for further easing in the future. To solve the problem of unbalanced recovery, fiscal policy is definitely more effective:</p><p>The mechanism of fiscal monetization still exists, and the future period will be precisely the verification period of U.S. fiscal policy, which may still require a low interest rate environment and an overall loose inter-bank liquidity environment. Therefore, we position the current U.S. policy as \"stimulus mode conversion\" rather than \"loose exit\".</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499d73ece33aa33a20d67cc087f64953","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191822782","content_text":"美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派讲话，让市场松了一口气，更重要的是，美联储向市场传递了一个信号，Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n据申万宏源分析师傅静涛总结，鲍威尔的讲话有四层要点：\n\n (1)年内开始Taper，但并未明确Taper的具体时间和节奏，这是一种偏鸽的方式。\n\n\n (2) QE全部退出，也不意味着开始筹备加息，加息的条件被设定在了充分就业。美联储有意让Taper与后续进一步紧缩脱钩。\n\n\n (3)通胀回升“已取得实质性进展”；就业恢复也取得明显进展，但失业率依然过高，Delta疫情增加了经济恢复的风险。\n\n\n (4) 1950 年的思考：不要试图抵消临时性的通胀波动。如今，劳动力市场缺口仍较大，疫情仍在继续，因为临时性通胀紧缩可能特别有害。\n\n傅静涛指出，比鸽派表态更重要的是，美联储似乎已经成功淡化了推进Taper的意义，包含三个层面：\n\n (1)能Taper不意味着能加息，Taper 的条件是就业市场恢复，而加息的条件是完全就业。美联储淡化Taper 对于后续紧缩的信号意义。\n\n\n (2)美联储给出Taper明确信号+承认当前经济不确定性，淡化了Taper对投资时钟转换的意义(从类滞胀到过热)。在美国银行间有大量冗余流动性(美联储逆回购操作量近期保持在每天 1 万亿美元以上)的情况下，Taper初期，流动性环境仍将保持宽松。所以，不指向后续紧缩、不指向投资时钟变化的Taper明确信号可能无法成为中短期市场的主要矛盾。\n\n\n\n\n\n (3) Taper 甚至不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n\n傅静涛认为，未来一段时间，与其说美国将迎来政策收紧，不如说美国处于“刺激方式转换”的窗口期。类滞胀的环境下，货币政策的有效性下降，银行间流动性冗余也指示后续没必要进一步宽松。解决复苏不平衡的问题，更有效的肯定是财政政策：\n\n 财政货币化的机制犹在，而未来一段时间，恰恰就是美国财政政策发力的验证期，这可能仍需要低利率环境，以及总体宽松的银行间流动性环境相配合。所以，我们将当前美国政策定位为“刺激方式转换”而非“宽松退出”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":818004279,"gmtCreate":1630364339291,"gmtModify":1676530279043,"author":{"id":"3561544476596136","authorId":"3561544476596136","name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorIdStr":"3561544476596136"},"htmlText":"高處不勝寒??","listText":"高處不勝寒??","text":"高處不勝寒??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/818004279","repostId":1191822782,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191822782","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1630287604,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191822782?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 09:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191822782","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。","content":"<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole gave the market a sigh of relief. More importantly, the Federal Reserve sent a signal to the market that Taper does not mean that the United States is beginning to end stimulus.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Analyst Fu Jingtao concluded that Powell's speech has four key points:</p><p>(1) Start Taper within the year, but the specific time and rhythm of Taper are not specified. This is a dove-oriented way. (2) The complete withdrawal of QE does not mean the beginning of preparations for the rate hike. rate hike's conditions are set at full employment. The Fed intends to decouple Taper from subsequent further tightening. (3) \"substantial progress has been made\" in the recovery of inflation; Employment recovery has also made significant progress, but the unemployment rate is still too high, and the Delta epidemic has increased the risk of economic recovery. (4) Thoughts in 1950: Don't try to offset temporary inflationary fluctuations. Today, the labor market gap is still wide and the pandemic continues as a temporary inflationary crunch can be particularly harmful. Fu Jingtao pointed out that more importantly than the dovish statement, the Federal Reserve seems to have successfully downplayed the significance of promoting Taper, which includes three levels:</p><p>(1) Being able to Taper does not mean being able to rate hike. The condition of Taper is the recovery of the job market, while the condition of rate hike is full employment. The Fed downplayed Taper's signal significance for subsequent tightening. (2) The Federal Reserve gave Taper a clear signal + acknowledged the current economic uncertainty, downplaying Taper's significance for the investment clock shift (from quasi-stagflation to overheating). In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>With a large amount of redundant liquidity (the Fed's reverse repurchase operation volume has recently remained above US $1 trillion per day), the liquidity environment will remain loose in the early stage of Taper. Therefore, Taper's clear signal that does not point to subsequent tightening or changes in the investment clock may not become the main contradiction in the short-to medium-term market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae82bf29b8078cf9d30d5e5ee922308\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(3) Taper doesn't even mean that the United States is beginning to end the stimulus. Fu Jingtao believes that in the future, rather than saying that the United States will usher in policy tightening, it is better to say that the United States is in a window period of \"stimulus mode conversion\". In a stagflation-like environment, the effectiveness of monetary policy has declined, and the redundancy of inter-bank liquidity also indicates that there is no need for further easing in the future. To solve the problem of unbalanced recovery, fiscal policy is definitely more effective:</p><p>The mechanism of fiscal monetization still exists, and the future period will be precisely the verification period of U.S. fiscal policy, which may still require a low interest rate environment and an overall loose inter-bank liquidity environment. Therefore, we position the current U.S. policy as \"stimulus mode conversion\" rather than \"loose exit\".</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 09:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole gave the market a sigh of relief. More importantly, the Federal Reserve sent a signal to the market that Taper does not mean that the United States is beginning to end stimulus.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Analyst Fu Jingtao concluded that Powell's speech has four key points:</p><p>(1) Start Taper within the year, but the specific time and rhythm of Taper are not specified. This is a dove-oriented way. (2) The complete withdrawal of QE does not mean the beginning of preparations for the rate hike. rate hike's conditions are set at full employment. The Fed intends to decouple Taper from subsequent further tightening. (3) \"substantial progress has been made\" in the recovery of inflation; Employment recovery has also made significant progress, but the unemployment rate is still too high, and the Delta epidemic has increased the risk of economic recovery. (4) Thoughts in 1950: Don't try to offset temporary inflationary fluctuations. Today, the labor market gap is still wide and the pandemic continues as a temporary inflationary crunch can be particularly harmful. Fu Jingtao pointed out that more importantly than the dovish statement, the Federal Reserve seems to have successfully downplayed the significance of promoting Taper, which includes three levels:</p><p>(1) Being able to Taper does not mean being able to rate hike. The condition of Taper is the recovery of the job market, while the condition of rate hike is full employment. The Fed downplayed Taper's signal significance for subsequent tightening. (2) The Federal Reserve gave Taper a clear signal + acknowledged the current economic uncertainty, downplaying Taper's significance for the investment clock shift (from quasi-stagflation to overheating). In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>With a large amount of redundant liquidity (the Fed's reverse repurchase operation volume has recently remained above US $1 trillion per day), the liquidity environment will remain loose in the early stage of Taper. Therefore, Taper's clear signal that does not point to subsequent tightening or changes in the investment clock may not become the main contradiction in the short-to medium-term market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae82bf29b8078cf9d30d5e5ee922308\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(3) Taper doesn't even mean that the United States is beginning to end the stimulus. Fu Jingtao believes that in the future, rather than saying that the United States will usher in policy tightening, it is better to say that the United States is in a window period of \"stimulus mode conversion\". In a stagflation-like environment, the effectiveness of monetary policy has declined, and the redundancy of inter-bank liquidity also indicates that there is no need for further easing in the future. To solve the problem of unbalanced recovery, fiscal policy is definitely more effective:</p><p>The mechanism of fiscal monetization still exists, and the future period will be precisely the verification period of U.S. fiscal policy, which may still require a low interest rate environment and an overall loose inter-bank liquidity environment. Therefore, we position the current U.S. policy as \"stimulus mode conversion\" rather than \"loose exit\".</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499d73ece33aa33a20d67cc087f64953","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191822782","content_text":"美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派讲话，让市场松了一口气，更重要的是，美联储向市场传递了一个信号，Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n据申万宏源分析师傅静涛总结，鲍威尔的讲话有四层要点：\n\n (1)年内开始Taper，但并未明确Taper的具体时间和节奏，这是一种偏鸽的方式。\n\n\n (2) QE全部退出，也不意味着开始筹备加息，加息的条件被设定在了充分就业。美联储有意让Taper与后续进一步紧缩脱钩。\n\n\n (3)通胀回升“已取得实质性进展”；就业恢复也取得明显进展，但失业率依然过高，Delta疫情增加了经济恢复的风险。\n\n\n (4) 1950 年的思考：不要试图抵消临时性的通胀波动。如今，劳动力市场缺口仍较大，疫情仍在继续，因为临时性通胀紧缩可能特别有害。\n\n傅静涛指出，比鸽派表态更重要的是，美联储似乎已经成功淡化了推进Taper的意义，包含三个层面：\n\n (1)能Taper不意味着能加息，Taper 的条件是就业市场恢复，而加息的条件是完全就业。美联储淡化Taper 对于后续紧缩的信号意义。\n\n\n (2)美联储给出Taper明确信号+承认当前经济不确定性，淡化了Taper对投资时钟转换的意义(从类滞胀到过热)。在美国银行间有大量冗余流动性(美联储逆回购操作量近期保持在每天 1 万亿美元以上)的情况下，Taper初期，流动性环境仍将保持宽松。所以，不指向后续紧缩、不指向投资时钟变化的Taper明确信号可能无法成为中短期市场的主要矛盾。\n\n\n\n\n\n (3) Taper 甚至不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n\n傅静涛认为，未来一段时间，与其说美国将迎来政策收紧，不如说美国处于“刺激方式转换”的窗口期。类滞胀的环境下，货币政策的有效性下降，银行间流动性冗余也指示后续没必要进一步宽松。解决复苏不平衡的问题，更有效的肯定是财政政策：\n\n 财政货币化的机制犹在，而未来一段时间，恰恰就是美国财政政策发力的验证期，这可能仍需要低利率环境，以及总体宽松的银行间流动性环境相配合。所以，我们将当前美国政策定位为“刺激方式转换”而非“宽松退出”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":811724402,"gmtCreate":1630361058406,"gmtModify":1676530277999,"author":{"id":"3559247438203174","authorId":"3559247438203174","name":"Kenwong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b2d674a493c8d51713045ce00a3054","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559247438203174","authorIdStr":"3559247438203174"},"htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811724402","repostId":1191822782,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191822782","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1630287604,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191822782?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 09:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191822782","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。","content":"<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole gave the market a sigh of relief. More importantly, the Federal Reserve sent a signal to the market that Taper does not mean that the United States is beginning to end stimulus.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Analyst Fu Jingtao concluded that Powell's speech has four key points:</p><p>(1) Start Taper within the year, but the specific time and rhythm of Taper are not specified. This is a dove-oriented way. (2) The complete withdrawal of QE does not mean the beginning of preparations for the rate hike. rate hike's conditions are set at full employment. The Fed intends to decouple Taper from subsequent further tightening. (3) \"substantial progress has been made\" in the recovery of inflation; Employment recovery has also made significant progress, but the unemployment rate is still too high, and the Delta epidemic has increased the risk of economic recovery. (4) Thoughts in 1950: Don't try to offset temporary inflationary fluctuations. Today, the labor market gap is still wide and the pandemic continues as a temporary inflationary crunch can be particularly harmful. Fu Jingtao pointed out that more importantly than the dovish statement, the Federal Reserve seems to have successfully downplayed the significance of promoting Taper, which includes three levels:</p><p>(1) Being able to Taper does not mean being able to rate hike. The condition of Taper is the recovery of the job market, while the condition of rate hike is full employment. The Fed downplayed Taper's signal significance for subsequent tightening. (2) The Federal Reserve gave Taper a clear signal + acknowledged the current economic uncertainty, downplaying Taper's significance for the investment clock shift (from quasi-stagflation to overheating). In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>With a large amount of redundant liquidity (the Fed's reverse repurchase operation volume has recently remained above US $1 trillion per day), the liquidity environment will remain loose in the early stage of Taper. Therefore, Taper's clear signal that does not point to subsequent tightening or changes in the investment clock may not become the main contradiction in the short-to medium-term market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae82bf29b8078cf9d30d5e5ee922308\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(3) Taper doesn't even mean that the United States is beginning to end the stimulus. Fu Jingtao believes that in the future, rather than saying that the United States will usher in policy tightening, it is better to say that the United States is in a window period of \"stimulus mode conversion\". In a stagflation-like environment, the effectiveness of monetary policy has declined, and the redundancy of inter-bank liquidity also indicates that there is no need for further easing in the future. To solve the problem of unbalanced recovery, fiscal policy is definitely more effective:</p><p>The mechanism of fiscal monetization still exists, and the future period will be precisely the verification period of U.S. fiscal policy, which may still require a low interest rate environment and an overall loose inter-bank liquidity environment. Therefore, we position the current U.S. policy as \"stimulus mode conversion\" rather than \"loose exit\".</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 09:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole gave the market a sigh of relief. More importantly, the Federal Reserve sent a signal to the market that Taper does not mean that the United States is beginning to end stimulus.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Analyst Fu Jingtao concluded that Powell's speech has four key points:</p><p>(1) Start Taper within the year, but the specific time and rhythm of Taper are not specified. This is a dove-oriented way. (2) The complete withdrawal of QE does not mean the beginning of preparations for the rate hike. rate hike's conditions are set at full employment. The Fed intends to decouple Taper from subsequent further tightening. (3) \"substantial progress has been made\" in the recovery of inflation; Employment recovery has also made significant progress, but the unemployment rate is still too high, and the Delta epidemic has increased the risk of economic recovery. (4) Thoughts in 1950: Don't try to offset temporary inflationary fluctuations. Today, the labor market gap is still wide and the pandemic continues as a temporary inflationary crunch can be particularly harmful. Fu Jingtao pointed out that more importantly than the dovish statement, the Federal Reserve seems to have successfully downplayed the significance of promoting Taper, which includes three levels:</p><p>(1) Being able to Taper does not mean being able to rate hike. The condition of Taper is the recovery of the job market, while the condition of rate hike is full employment. The Fed downplayed Taper's signal significance for subsequent tightening. (2) The Federal Reserve gave Taper a clear signal + acknowledged the current economic uncertainty, downplaying Taper's significance for the investment clock shift (from quasi-stagflation to overheating). In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>With a large amount of redundant liquidity (the Fed's reverse repurchase operation volume has recently remained above US $1 trillion per day), the liquidity environment will remain loose in the early stage of Taper. Therefore, Taper's clear signal that does not point to subsequent tightening or changes in the investment clock may not become the main contradiction in the short-to medium-term market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae82bf29b8078cf9d30d5e5ee922308\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(3) Taper doesn't even mean that the United States is beginning to end the stimulus. Fu Jingtao believes that in the future, rather than saying that the United States will usher in policy tightening, it is better to say that the United States is in a window period of \"stimulus mode conversion\". In a stagflation-like environment, the effectiveness of monetary policy has declined, and the redundancy of inter-bank liquidity also indicates that there is no need for further easing in the future. To solve the problem of unbalanced recovery, fiscal policy is definitely more effective:</p><p>The mechanism of fiscal monetization still exists, and the future period will be precisely the verification period of U.S. fiscal policy, which may still require a low interest rate environment and an overall loose inter-bank liquidity environment. Therefore, we position the current U.S. policy as \"stimulus mode conversion\" rather than \"loose exit\".</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499d73ece33aa33a20d67cc087f64953","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191822782","content_text":"美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派讲话，让市场松了一口气，更重要的是，美联储向市场传递了一个信号，Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n据申万宏源分析师傅静涛总结，鲍威尔的讲话有四层要点：\n\n (1)年内开始Taper，但并未明确Taper的具体时间和节奏，这是一种偏鸽的方式。\n\n\n (2) QE全部退出，也不意味着开始筹备加息，加息的条件被设定在了充分就业。美联储有意让Taper与后续进一步紧缩脱钩。\n\n\n (3)通胀回升“已取得实质性进展”；就业恢复也取得明显进展，但失业率依然过高，Delta疫情增加了经济恢复的风险。\n\n\n (4) 1950 年的思考：不要试图抵消临时性的通胀波动。如今，劳动力市场缺口仍较大，疫情仍在继续，因为临时性通胀紧缩可能特别有害。\n\n傅静涛指出，比鸽派表态更重要的是，美联储似乎已经成功淡化了推进Taper的意义，包含三个层面：\n\n (1)能Taper不意味着能加息，Taper 的条件是就业市场恢复，而加息的条件是完全就业。美联储淡化Taper 对于后续紧缩的信号意义。\n\n\n (2)美联储给出Taper明确信号+承认当前经济不确定性，淡化了Taper对投资时钟转换的意义(从类滞胀到过热)。在美国银行间有大量冗余流动性(美联储逆回购操作量近期保持在每天 1 万亿美元以上)的情况下，Taper初期，流动性环境仍将保持宽松。所以，不指向后续紧缩、不指向投资时钟变化的Taper明确信号可能无法成为中短期市场的主要矛盾。\n\n\n\n\n\n (3) Taper 甚至不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n\n傅静涛认为，未来一段时间，与其说美国将迎来政策收紧，不如说美国处于“刺激方式转换”的窗口期。类滞胀的环境下，货币政策的有效性下降，银行间流动性冗余也指示后续没必要进一步宽松。解决复苏不平衡的问题，更有效的肯定是财政政策：\n\n 财政货币化的机制犹在，而未来一段时间，恰恰就是美国财政政策发力的验证期，这可能仍需要低利率环境，以及总体宽松的银行间流动性环境相配合。所以，我们将当前美国政策定位为“刺激方式转换”而非“宽松退出”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5721920,"gmtCreate":1630532132939,"gmtModify":1663233245237,"authorId":4093277430828230,"author":{"id":4093277430828230,"idStr":"4093277430828230","authorId":4093277430828230,"name":"Shirley2208","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d62232e12645d0411c87323fcb09c44","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":811724402,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"?","text":"?","html":"?"},{"id":5698444,"gmtCreate":1630364416255,"gmtModify":1663233136055,"authorId":3561544476596136,"author":{"id":3561544476596136,"idStr":"3561544476596136","authorId":3561544476596136,"name":"hhyw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62f8a12108672917c80685184f331b6f","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be-3","templateUuid":"972123088c9646f7b6091ae0662215be","name":"Legendary 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09:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191822782","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。","content":"<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole gave the market a sigh of relief. More importantly, the Federal Reserve sent a signal to the market that Taper does not mean that the United States is beginning to end stimulus.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Analyst Fu Jingtao concluded that Powell's speech has four key points:</p><p>(1) Start Taper within the year, but the specific time and rhythm of Taper are not specified. This is a dove-oriented way. (2) The complete withdrawal of QE does not mean the beginning of preparations for the rate hike. rate hike's conditions are set at full employment. The Fed intends to decouple Taper from subsequent further tightening. (3) \"substantial progress has been made\" in the recovery of inflation; Employment recovery has also made significant progress, but the unemployment rate is still too high, and the Delta epidemic has increased the risk of economic recovery. (4) Thoughts in 1950: Don't try to offset temporary inflationary fluctuations. Today, the labor market gap is still wide and the pandemic continues as a temporary inflationary crunch can be particularly harmful. Fu Jingtao pointed out that more importantly than the dovish statement, the Federal Reserve seems to have successfully downplayed the significance of promoting Taper, which includes three levels:</p><p>(1) Being able to Taper does not mean being able to rate hike. The condition of Taper is the recovery of the job market, while the condition of rate hike is full employment. The Fed downplayed Taper's signal significance for subsequent tightening. (2) The Federal Reserve gave Taper a clear signal + acknowledged the current economic uncertainty, downplaying Taper's significance for the investment clock shift (from quasi-stagflation to overheating). In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>With a large amount of redundant liquidity (the Fed's reverse repurchase operation volume has recently remained above US $1 trillion per day), the liquidity environment will remain loose in the early stage of Taper. Therefore, Taper's clear signal that does not point to subsequent tightening or changes in the investment clock may not become the main contradiction in the short-to medium-term market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae82bf29b8078cf9d30d5e5ee922308\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(3) Taper doesn't even mean that the United States is beginning to end the stimulus. Fu Jingtao believes that in the future, rather than saying that the United States will usher in policy tightening, it is better to say that the United States is in a window period of \"stimulus mode conversion\". In a stagflation-like environment, the effectiveness of monetary policy has declined, and the redundancy of inter-bank liquidity also indicates that there is no need for further easing in the future. To solve the problem of unbalanced recovery, fiscal policy is definitely more effective:</p><p>The mechanism of fiscal monetization still exists, and the future period will be precisely the verification period of U.S. fiscal policy, which may still require a low interest rate environment and an overall loose inter-bank liquidity environment. Therefore, we position the current U.S. policy as \"stimulus mode conversion\" rather than \"loose exit\".</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 09:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole gave the market a sigh of relief. More importantly, the Federal Reserve sent a signal to the market that Taper does not mean that the United States is beginning to end stimulus.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Analyst Fu Jingtao concluded that Powell's speech has four key points:</p><p>(1) Start Taper within the year, but the specific time and rhythm of Taper are not specified. This is a dove-oriented way. (2) The complete withdrawal of QE does not mean the beginning of preparations for the rate hike. rate hike's conditions are set at full employment. The Fed intends to decouple Taper from subsequent further tightening. (3) \"substantial progress has been made\" in the recovery of inflation; Employment recovery has also made significant progress, but the unemployment rate is still too high, and the Delta epidemic has increased the risk of economic recovery. (4) Thoughts in 1950: Don't try to offset temporary inflationary fluctuations. Today, the labor market gap is still wide and the pandemic continues as a temporary inflationary crunch can be particularly harmful. Fu Jingtao pointed out that more importantly than the dovish statement, the Federal Reserve seems to have successfully downplayed the significance of promoting Taper, which includes three levels:</p><p>(1) Being able to Taper does not mean being able to rate hike. The condition of Taper is the recovery of the job market, while the condition of rate hike is full employment. The Fed downplayed Taper's signal significance for subsequent tightening. (2) The Federal Reserve gave Taper a clear signal + acknowledged the current economic uncertainty, downplaying Taper's significance for the investment clock shift (from quasi-stagflation to overheating). In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>With a large amount of redundant liquidity (the Fed's reverse repurchase operation volume has recently remained above US $1 trillion per day), the liquidity environment will remain loose in the early stage of Taper. Therefore, Taper's clear signal that does not point to subsequent tightening or changes in the investment clock may not become the main contradiction in the short-to medium-term market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae82bf29b8078cf9d30d5e5ee922308\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(3) Taper doesn't even mean that the United States is beginning to end the stimulus. Fu Jingtao believes that in the future, rather than saying that the United States will usher in policy tightening, it is better to say that the United States is in a window period of \"stimulus mode conversion\". In a stagflation-like environment, the effectiveness of monetary policy has declined, and the redundancy of inter-bank liquidity also indicates that there is no need for further easing in the future. To solve the problem of unbalanced recovery, fiscal policy is definitely more effective:</p><p>The mechanism of fiscal monetization still exists, and the future period will be precisely the verification period of U.S. fiscal policy, which may still require a low interest rate environment and an overall loose inter-bank liquidity environment. Therefore, we position the current U.S. policy as \"stimulus mode conversion\" rather than \"loose exit\".</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499d73ece33aa33a20d67cc087f64953","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191822782","content_text":"美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派讲话，让市场松了一口气，更重要的是，美联储向市场传递了一个信号，Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n据申万宏源分析师傅静涛总结，鲍威尔的讲话有四层要点：\n\n (1)年内开始Taper，但并未明确Taper的具体时间和节奏，这是一种偏鸽的方式。\n\n\n (2) QE全部退出，也不意味着开始筹备加息，加息的条件被设定在了充分就业。美联储有意让Taper与后续进一步紧缩脱钩。\n\n\n (3)通胀回升“已取得实质性进展”；就业恢复也取得明显进展，但失业率依然过高，Delta疫情增加了经济恢复的风险。\n\n\n (4) 1950 年的思考：不要试图抵消临时性的通胀波动。如今，劳动力市场缺口仍较大，疫情仍在继续，因为临时性通胀紧缩可能特别有害。\n\n傅静涛指出，比鸽派表态更重要的是，美联储似乎已经成功淡化了推进Taper的意义，包含三个层面：\n\n (1)能Taper不意味着能加息，Taper 的条件是就业市场恢复，而加息的条件是完全就业。美联储淡化Taper 对于后续紧缩的信号意义。\n\n\n (2)美联储给出Taper明确信号+承认当前经济不确定性，淡化了Taper对投资时钟转换的意义(从类滞胀到过热)。在美国银行间有大量冗余流动性(美联储逆回购操作量近期保持在每天 1 万亿美元以上)的情况下，Taper初期，流动性环境仍将保持宽松。所以，不指向后续紧缩、不指向投资时钟变化的Taper明确信号可能无法成为中短期市场的主要矛盾。\n\n\n\n\n\n (3) Taper 甚至不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n\n傅静涛认为，未来一段时间，与其说美国将迎来政策收紧，不如说美国处于“刺激方式转换”的窗口期。类滞胀的环境下，货币政策的有效性下降，银行间流动性冗余也指示后续没必要进一步宽松。解决复苏不平衡的问题，更有效的肯定是财政政策：\n\n 财政货币化的机制犹在，而未来一段时间，恰恰就是美国财政政策发力的验证期，这可能仍需要低利率环境，以及总体宽松的银行间流动性环境相配合。所以，我们将当前美国政策定位为“刺激方式转换”而非“宽松退出”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":811796672,"gmtCreate":1630343790296,"gmtModify":1676530276605,"author":{"id":"3573863078476577","authorId":"3573863078476577","name":"磐石533","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfdf718b918510c617d15517144155","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3573863078476577","authorIdStr":"3573863078476577"},"htmlText":"美利堅合衆國✧*。٩(ˊωˋ*)و✧*。","listText":"美利堅合衆國✧*。٩(ˊωˋ*)و✧*。","text":"美利堅合衆國✧*。٩(ˊωˋ*)و✧*。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811796672","repostId":1191822782,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191822782","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1630287604,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191822782?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 09:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191822782","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。","content":"<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole gave the market a sigh of relief. More importantly, the Federal Reserve sent a signal to the market that Taper does not mean that the United States is beginning to end stimulus.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Analyst Fu Jingtao concluded that Powell's speech has four key points:</p><p>(1) Start Taper within the year, but the specific time and rhythm of Taper are not specified. This is a dove-oriented way. (2) The complete withdrawal of QE does not mean the beginning of preparations for the rate hike. rate hike's conditions are set at full employment. The Fed intends to decouple Taper from subsequent further tightening. (3) \"substantial progress has been made\" in the recovery of inflation; Employment recovery has also made significant progress, but the unemployment rate is still too high, and the Delta epidemic has increased the risk of economic recovery. (4) Thoughts in 1950: Don't try to offset temporary inflationary fluctuations. Today, the labor market gap is still wide and the pandemic continues as a temporary inflationary crunch can be particularly harmful. Fu Jingtao pointed out that more importantly than the dovish statement, the Federal Reserve seems to have successfully downplayed the significance of promoting Taper, which includes three levels:</p><p>(1) Being able to Taper does not mean being able to rate hike. The condition of Taper is the recovery of the job market, while the condition of rate hike is full employment. The Fed downplayed Taper's signal significance for subsequent tightening. (2) The Federal Reserve gave Taper a clear signal + acknowledged the current economic uncertainty, downplaying Taper's significance for the investment clock shift (from quasi-stagflation to overheating). In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>With a large amount of redundant liquidity (the Fed's reverse repurchase operation volume has recently remained above US $1 trillion per day), the liquidity environment will remain loose in the early stage of Taper. Therefore, Taper's clear signal that does not point to subsequent tightening or changes in the investment clock may not become the main contradiction in the short-to medium-term market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae82bf29b8078cf9d30d5e5ee922308\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(3) Taper doesn't even mean that the United States is beginning to end the stimulus. Fu Jingtao believes that in the future, rather than saying that the United States will usher in policy tightening, it is better to say that the United States is in a window period of \"stimulus mode conversion\". In a stagflation-like environment, the effectiveness of monetary policy has declined, and the redundancy of inter-bank liquidity also indicates that there is no need for further easing in the future. To solve the problem of unbalanced recovery, fiscal policy is definitely more effective:</p><p>The mechanism of fiscal monetization still exists, and the future period will be precisely the verification period of U.S. fiscal policy, which may still require a low interest rate environment and an overall loose inter-bank liquidity environment. Therefore, we position the current U.S. policy as \"stimulus mode conversion\" rather than \"loose exit\".</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 09:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole gave the market a sigh of relief. More importantly, the Federal Reserve sent a signal to the market that Taper does not mean that the United States is beginning to end stimulus.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Analyst Fu Jingtao concluded that Powell's speech has four key points:</p><p>(1) Start Taper within the year, but the specific time and rhythm of Taper are not specified. This is a dove-oriented way. (2) The complete withdrawal of QE does not mean the beginning of preparations for the rate hike. rate hike's conditions are set at full employment. The Fed intends to decouple Taper from subsequent further tightening. (3) \"substantial progress has been made\" in the recovery of inflation; Employment recovery has also made significant progress, but the unemployment rate is still too high, and the Delta epidemic has increased the risk of economic recovery. (4) Thoughts in 1950: Don't try to offset temporary inflationary fluctuations. Today, the labor market gap is still wide and the pandemic continues as a temporary inflationary crunch can be particularly harmful. Fu Jingtao pointed out that more importantly than the dovish statement, the Federal Reserve seems to have successfully downplayed the significance of promoting Taper, which includes three levels:</p><p>(1) Being able to Taper does not mean being able to rate hike. The condition of Taper is the recovery of the job market, while the condition of rate hike is full employment. The Fed downplayed Taper's signal significance for subsequent tightening. (2) The Federal Reserve gave Taper a clear signal + acknowledged the current economic uncertainty, downplaying Taper's significance for the investment clock shift (from quasi-stagflation to overheating). In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>With a large amount of redundant liquidity (the Fed's reverse repurchase operation volume has recently remained above US $1 trillion per day), the liquidity environment will remain loose in the early stage of Taper. Therefore, Taper's clear signal that does not point to subsequent tightening or changes in the investment clock may not become the main contradiction in the short-to medium-term market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae82bf29b8078cf9d30d5e5ee922308\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(3) Taper doesn't even mean that the United States is beginning to end the stimulus. Fu Jingtao believes that in the future, rather than saying that the United States will usher in policy tightening, it is better to say that the United States is in a window period of \"stimulus mode conversion\". In a stagflation-like environment, the effectiveness of monetary policy has declined, and the redundancy of inter-bank liquidity also indicates that there is no need for further easing in the future. To solve the problem of unbalanced recovery, fiscal policy is definitely more effective:</p><p>The mechanism of fiscal monetization still exists, and the future period will be precisely the verification period of U.S. fiscal policy, which may still require a low interest rate environment and an overall loose inter-bank liquidity environment. Therefore, we position the current U.S. policy as \"stimulus mode conversion\" rather than \"loose exit\".</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499d73ece33aa33a20d67cc087f64953","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191822782","content_text":"美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派讲话，让市场松了一口气，更重要的是，美联储向市场传递了一个信号，Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n据申万宏源分析师傅静涛总结，鲍威尔的讲话有四层要点：\n\n (1)年内开始Taper，但并未明确Taper的具体时间和节奏，这是一种偏鸽的方式。\n\n\n (2) QE全部退出，也不意味着开始筹备加息，加息的条件被设定在了充分就业。美联储有意让Taper与后续进一步紧缩脱钩。\n\n\n (3)通胀回升“已取得实质性进展”；就业恢复也取得明显进展，但失业率依然过高，Delta疫情增加了经济恢复的风险。\n\n\n (4) 1950 年的思考：不要试图抵消临时性的通胀波动。如今，劳动力市场缺口仍较大，疫情仍在继续，因为临时性通胀紧缩可能特别有害。\n\n傅静涛指出，比鸽派表态更重要的是，美联储似乎已经成功淡化了推进Taper的意义，包含三个层面：\n\n (1)能Taper不意味着能加息，Taper 的条件是就业市场恢复，而加息的条件是完全就业。美联储淡化Taper 对于后续紧缩的信号意义。\n\n\n (2)美联储给出Taper明确信号+承认当前经济不确定性，淡化了Taper对投资时钟转换的意义(从类滞胀到过热)。在美国银行间有大量冗余流动性(美联储逆回购操作量近期保持在每天 1 万亿美元以上)的情况下，Taper初期，流动性环境仍将保持宽松。所以，不指向后续紧缩、不指向投资时钟变化的Taper明确信号可能无法成为中短期市场的主要矛盾。\n\n\n\n\n\n (3) Taper 甚至不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n\n傅静涛认为，未来一段时间，与其说美国将迎来政策收紧，不如说美国处于“刺激方式转换”的窗口期。类滞胀的环境下，货币政策的有效性下降，银行间流动性冗余也指示后续没必要进一步宽松。解决复苏不平衡的问题，更有效的肯定是财政政策：\n\n 财政货币化的机制犹在，而未来一段时间，恰恰就是美国财政政策发力的验证期，这可能仍需要低利率环境，以及总体宽松的银行间流动性环境相配合。所以，我们将当前美国政策定位为“刺激方式转换”而非“宽松退出”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":811587764,"gmtCreate":1630332414658,"gmtModify":1676530272290,"author":{"id":"3574395209516109","authorId":"3574395209516109","name":"AB_Iphone","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574395209516109","authorIdStr":"3574395209516109"},"htmlText":"真的嗎？","listText":"真的嗎？","text":"真的嗎？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/811587764","repostId":1191822782,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191822782","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1630287604,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1191822782?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-08-30 09:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191822782","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。","content":"<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole gave the market a sigh of relief. More importantly, the Federal Reserve sent a signal to the market that Taper does not mean that the United States is beginning to end stimulus.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Analyst Fu Jingtao concluded that Powell's speech has four key points:</p><p>(1) Start Taper within the year, but the specific time and rhythm of Taper are not specified. This is a dove-oriented way. (2) The complete withdrawal of QE does not mean the beginning of preparations for the rate hike. rate hike's conditions are set at full employment. The Fed intends to decouple Taper from subsequent further tightening. (3) \"substantial progress has been made\" in the recovery of inflation; Employment recovery has also made significant progress, but the unemployment rate is still too high, and the Delta epidemic has increased the risk of economic recovery. (4) Thoughts in 1950: Don't try to offset temporary inflationary fluctuations. Today, the labor market gap is still wide and the pandemic continues as a temporary inflationary crunch can be particularly harmful. Fu Jingtao pointed out that more importantly than the dovish statement, the Federal Reserve seems to have successfully downplayed the significance of promoting Taper, which includes three levels:</p><p>(1) Being able to Taper does not mean being able to rate hike. The condition of Taper is the recovery of the job market, while the condition of rate hike is full employment. The Fed downplayed Taper's signal significance for subsequent tightening. (2) The Federal Reserve gave Taper a clear signal + acknowledged the current economic uncertainty, downplaying Taper's significance for the investment clock shift (from quasi-stagflation to overheating). In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>With a large amount of redundant liquidity (the Fed's reverse repurchase operation volume has recently remained above US $1 trillion per day), the liquidity environment will remain loose in the early stage of Taper. Therefore, Taper's clear signal that does not point to subsequent tightening or changes in the investment clock may not become the main contradiction in the short-to medium-term market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae82bf29b8078cf9d30d5e5ee922308\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(3) Taper doesn't even mean that the United States is beginning to end the stimulus. Fu Jingtao believes that in the future, rather than saying that the United States will usher in policy tightening, it is better to say that the United States is in a window period of \"stimulus mode conversion\". In a stagflation-like environment, the effectiveness of monetary policy has declined, and the redundancy of inter-bank liquidity also indicates that there is no need for further easing in the future. To solve the problem of unbalanced recovery, fiscal policy is definitely more effective:</p><p>The mechanism of fiscal monetization still exists, and the future period will be precisely the verification period of U.S. fiscal policy, which may still require a low interest rate environment and an overall loose inter-bank liquidity environment. Therefore, we position the current U.S. policy as \"stimulus mode conversion\" rather than \"loose exit\".</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe \"Market Significance\" of Powell's Speech: No Tightening, Only \"Stimulus Switching\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 09:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole gave the market a sigh of relief. More importantly, the Federal Reserve sent a signal to the market that Taper does not mean that the United States is beginning to end stimulus.</p><p>According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000166\">Shenwan Hongyuan</a>Analyst Fu Jingtao concluded that Powell's speech has four key points:</p><p>(1) Start Taper within the year, but the specific time and rhythm of Taper are not specified. This is a dove-oriented way. (2) The complete withdrawal of QE does not mean the beginning of preparations for the rate hike. rate hike's conditions are set at full employment. The Fed intends to decouple Taper from subsequent further tightening. (3) \"substantial progress has been made\" in the recovery of inflation; Employment recovery has also made significant progress, but the unemployment rate is still too high, and the Delta epidemic has increased the risk of economic recovery. (4) Thoughts in 1950: Don't try to offset temporary inflationary fluctuations. Today, the labor market gap is still wide and the pandemic continues as a temporary inflationary crunch can be particularly harmful. Fu Jingtao pointed out that more importantly than the dovish statement, the Federal Reserve seems to have successfully downplayed the significance of promoting Taper, which includes three levels:</p><p>(1) Being able to Taper does not mean being able to rate hike. The condition of Taper is the recovery of the job market, while the condition of rate hike is full employment. The Fed downplayed Taper's signal significance for subsequent tightening. (2) The Federal Reserve gave Taper a clear signal + acknowledged the current economic uncertainty, downplaying Taper's significance for the investment clock shift (from quasi-stagflation to overheating). In<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>With a large amount of redundant liquidity (the Fed's reverse repurchase operation volume has recently remained above US $1 trillion per day), the liquidity environment will remain loose in the early stage of Taper. Therefore, Taper's clear signal that does not point to subsequent tightening or changes in the investment clock may not become the main contradiction in the short-to medium-term market.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fae82bf29b8078cf9d30d5e5ee922308\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">(3) Taper doesn't even mean that the United States is beginning to end the stimulus. Fu Jingtao believes that in the future, rather than saying that the United States will usher in policy tightening, it is better to say that the United States is in a window period of \"stimulus mode conversion\". In a stagflation-like environment, the effectiveness of monetary policy has declined, and the redundancy of inter-bank liquidity also indicates that there is no need for further easing in the future. To solve the problem of unbalanced recovery, fiscal policy is definitely more effective:</p><p>The mechanism of fiscal monetization still exists, and the future period will be precisely the verification period of U.S. fiscal policy, which may still require a low interest rate environment and an overall loose inter-bank liquidity environment. Therefore, we position the current U.S. policy as \"stimulus mode conversion\" rather than \"loose exit\".</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/499d73ece33aa33a20d67cc087f64953","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191822782","content_text":"美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上的鸽派讲话，让市场松了一口气，更重要的是，美联储向市场传递了一个信号，Taper并不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n据申万宏源分析师傅静涛总结，鲍威尔的讲话有四层要点：\n\n (1)年内开始Taper，但并未明确Taper的具体时间和节奏，这是一种偏鸽的方式。\n\n\n (2) QE全部退出，也不意味着开始筹备加息，加息的条件被设定在了充分就业。美联储有意让Taper与后续进一步紧缩脱钩。\n\n\n (3)通胀回升“已取得实质性进展”；就业恢复也取得明显进展，但失业率依然过高，Delta疫情增加了经济恢复的风险。\n\n\n (4) 1950 年的思考：不要试图抵消临时性的通胀波动。如今，劳动力市场缺口仍较大，疫情仍在继续，因为临时性通胀紧缩可能特别有害。\n\n傅静涛指出，比鸽派表态更重要的是，美联储似乎已经成功淡化了推进Taper的意义，包含三个层面：\n\n (1)能Taper不意味着能加息，Taper 的条件是就业市场恢复，而加息的条件是完全就业。美联储淡化Taper 对于后续紧缩的信号意义。\n\n\n (2)美联储给出Taper明确信号+承认当前经济不确定性，淡化了Taper对投资时钟转换的意义(从类滞胀到过热)。在美国银行间有大量冗余流动性(美联储逆回购操作量近期保持在每天 1 万亿美元以上)的情况下，Taper初期，流动性环境仍将保持宽松。所以，不指向后续紧缩、不指向投资时钟变化的Taper明确信号可能无法成为中短期市场的主要矛盾。\n\n\n\n\n\n (3) Taper 甚至不意味着美国开始着手结束刺激。\n\n傅静涛认为，未来一段时间，与其说美国将迎来政策收紧，不如说美国处于“刺激方式转换”的窗口期。类滞胀的环境下，货币政策的有效性下降，银行间流动性冗余也指示后续没必要进一步宽松。解决复苏不平衡的问题，更有效的肯定是财政政策：\n\n 财政货币化的机制犹在，而未来一段时间，恰恰就是美国财政政策发力的验证期，这可能仍需要低利率环境，以及总体宽松的银行间流动性环境相配合。所以，我们将当前美国政策定位为“刺激方式转换”而非“宽松退出”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DXD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5696834,"gmtCreate":1630337510416,"gmtModify":1663233129137,"authorId":3561947625505294,"author":{"id":3561947625505294,"idStr":"3561947625505294","authorId":3561947625505294,"name":"jianguang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba8bad94c928a5789228b91d99514252","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":811587764,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","html":"Yeah"},{"id":5695644,"gmtCreate":1630332454087,"gmtModify":1663233124247,"authorId":3569028586400878,"author":{"id":3569028586400878,"idStr":"3569028586400878","authorId":3569028586400878,"name":"Miaw","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd318611f16b0eb6de098c8b733c85fd","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":811587764,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"真真假假","text":"真真假假","html":"真真假假"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":78,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1191822782","isCrawlerRequest":true}