Australian shares were poised to open flat as surging commodity prices helped offset heavy falls on Wall Street amid growing inflation fears.
ASX futures finished unchanged. The S&P/ASX 200 yesterday pre-empted overnight weakness in the US, falling 72 points or 1.02 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell deeper into correction territory as soaring prices threaten to stifle consumer spending.
Crude hit its highest level since 2008 during another wild night on commodity markets. Nickel soared 76 percent. Copper, aluminium and palladium hit fresh highs. Wheat set a 14-year high.
Wall Street
US stocks wilted under the threat of an economic slowdown as rising prices curb spending. Banks and consumer stocks led the sell-off.
The S&P 500 slid 128 points or 2.95 percent. TheDow Jones Industrial Average shed 797 points or 2.95 percent. The Nasdaq Composite lost 482 points or 3.62 percent.
Energy prices soared after the White House said it was considering an embargo on Russian oil. Petrol pump prices in the US climbed to their highest since 2008.
“Galloping commodity prices will naturally put downward pressure on the economy and increase operational volatility for many companies already struggling with inflationary pressures,” Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, said.
Heavy fuel consumers, such as airlines and cruise lines, fell hard. United Airlines dived 15.01 percent, Delta 12.8 percent, Carnival Corp 9.92 percent and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings 11.56 percent.
Banks and consumer stocks that depend on healthy economic growth also felt the chill wind. Bank of America skidded 6.4 percent, Wells Fargo 6.11 percent, Nike 5.12 percent and Starbucks 6.19 percent.
“That concern on oil has led to concerns on higher inflation and potential for stagflation,” Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, said. “I think there is just a broader concern that there may be a hit to growth from the consumer given higher prices at the pump.”
In the energy space, Baker Hughes put on 4.7 percent, Exxon Mobil 3.59 percent and Chevron 1.76 percent. The defensive utilities sector gained 1.31 percent.
Several economists cut their year-end forecasts to reflect the shifting outlook for growth. Citi said it now expected the S&P 500 to finish the year at 4700, down from a previous forecast of 5,100. UBS, Yardeni Research and Evercore ISI also lowered their equity outlooks.
European markets came under heavy early selling pressure before finishing off their lows. The pan-European Stoxx 600 shed 1.1 percent. Britain’s FTSE 100 index lost 0.4 pr cent, Germany’s DAX 1.98 percent and France’s CAC 40 index 1.31 percent.
Australian outlook
While futures action suggests a neutral start, the ASX looks likely to test its Ukraine-crisis low as losers from the commodity price surge once again outweigh winners. More than 75 percent of the companies on the S&P/ASX 200 declined yesterday.
The local market got a jump yesterday on overnight weakness on US and European markets, but likely has more to give. The scale of the selling on Wall Street was too substantial to ignore.
Yesterday’s best performing sector, energy, may struggle after crude prices finished well off session highs.
“The sector rallied over 5% yesterday during its most bullish session since November 2020 and rose to a post-pandemic high,” City Index senior market analyst Matt Simpson said.
“But it’s not clear they will continue higher today. But with Western leaders umming and ahing over whether they really will try to embargo Russia oil, WTI [West Texas Intermediate crude] gave back most of its earlier gains and it’s likely to see the energy sector struggle today.
“And the weak lead from Wall Street and AXS futures posting lower, a break and hold below 7,000 today is could also on the cards for the ASX 200.”
The session ahead is likely to see pressure on consumer-facing stocks. In the US, the consumer discretionary sector tanked 4.8 percent, financials 3.66 percent and consumer staples 1.87 percent.
While energy gained 1.57 percent, basic materials lost a hefty 3.43 percent. Aside from energy, utilities was the only other winner.
The overnight flight to safety caught up with the dollar. The Aussie slid 1.07 percent to 73.15 US cents.
February business confidence and weekly consumer confidence surveys were scheduled for release this morning.
IPOs: the first listing of the week is the US Student Housing REIT at 10.30 am AEDT. The trust, jointly managed by Melbourne assets manager Auctus Investment Group and US housing operator Student Quarters, manages student housing near US universities.
Commodities
Oil posted its highest finish in almost a decade, but ended well off its overnight high in volatile trade. Brent crude settled US$5.10 or 4.3 percent ahead at US$123.21 a barrel. Earlier, the global benchmark hit US$139.13, a rise of 17.8 percent.
The US benchmark settled US$3.72 or 3.2 percent higher at US$119.40 after trading as high as US$130.50. The finish was the strongest since September 2008.
Nickel prices soared as much as 76 percent to a 15-year peak. Prices ran to US$51,000 a tonne before finishing 72.67 percent ahead at US$50,300 on the London Metal Exchange. Prices have soared since the West began shunning Russian exports.
“Nickel was already in tight supply, and if a large supplier is being taken out from the market, it will have a cascading impact in the near- to medium-term,” Kunal Sawhney, CEO of Kalkine Group, said. “The surge in prices is going to add further pressure on spot supply.”
Copper and aluminium hit records before retracing. Benchmark copper on the LME finished 3.36 percent lower at US$10,315 a tonne. Aluminium declined 2.82 percent, lead 0.37 percent and tin 0.52 percent. Zinc gained 0.32 percent.
A flight to safety lifted gold briefly above US$2,000 an ounce for the first time since August 2020. Metal for April delivery settled US$29.30 or 1.5 percent ahead at US$1,995.90 after trading as high as US$2,007.50. The NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index firmed 2.5 percent.
Iron ore hit a six-month high. The spot price for ore landed in China soared US$10.35 or 6.8 percent to US$162.75 a tonne. Benchmark futures on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange rallied 7.1 percent to 870 yuan. Shanghai stainless steel futures surged 10.1 percent.
BHP‘s US-traded depositary receipts shed 0.98 percent after its UK listing gained 2.24 percent. Rio Tinto fell 2.87 percent in the US and 0.15 percent in the UK.
Palladiumrallied 15 percent to a fresh high of US$3,440 an ounce.Wheat futures climbed more than 7 percent to a 14-year peak.
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