Capital Expenditure Surpasses Expectations, Fueling AI Infrastructure Arms Race; Diverging Views on Optical Modules Persist

Deep News10:44

During the early trading session on July 23rd, the optical module and CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) sector showed signs of a partial recovery. Liantek Technology surged over 5%, while Zhongji Innolight rose more than 3%. The ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF Huabao (159363), which holds significant positions in leading optical module companies, saw an intraday spike of nearly 2% before paring gains, indicating persistent market divergence. Real-time turnover exceeded 7 billion yuan, reflecting active trading.

On the news front, several overseas tech giants are ramping up their data center investments. OpenAI plans to invest over $300 billion in building new data centers and has raised its cloud spending forecast to $750 billion. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, has once again revised upwards its already elevated capital expenditure forecast for 2026. The company now expects capital expenditures in 2026 to be between $195 billion and $205 billion, exceeding its previous high-end guidance of $190 billion.

A Huatai Securities research report notes that, overall, the AI industry trend has not slowed, with the competition in computing power and large language models continuing. First, the earnings and guidance from TSMC and ASML continue to confirm the strength of AI demand. Second, domestic open-source large-parameter models, represented by Kimi K3 and Qwen 3.8, have progressed from "catching up" to "running neck and neck" in terms of Agent capabilities, also demonstrating the sustained demand for computing power, storage, and networking. The report suggests there is no need for panic after short-term sentiment has been quickly cleared.

Following a systematic review of past corrections in the optical communications sector, institutions point out that divergence often presents a buying opportunity. Guosheng Securities stated that, looking back at previous declines, the essence was that the market underestimated the certainty and sustainability of AI computing infrastructure expansion amid short-term disruptions. Taking a longer-term view, short-term logical disruptions are ultimately digested by long-term earnings realization. At the current stage, it is necessary to strip away emotional interference and return to the fundamentals of the industry and the earnings narrative.

The institution added that the underlying upward logic for the optical communications industry remains unchanged, with leading companies' innovation iteration and corporate governance capabilities building solid moats. Short-term logical disruptions will eventually be absorbed by long-term performance delivery, making every pullback a window for strategic industry positioning. It maintains a positive outlook on the mid-year report season for the communications sector and recommends focusing on leading optical module companies.

The ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF Huabao (159363) and its corresponding feeder funds (Class A 023407, Class C 023408) focus on leading CPO optical module companies. The underlying index has an approximate 40% combined weighting in Zhongji Innolight, Sunny Optical, and Tianfu Communication, positioning it as a core vehicle for AI computing power. Furthermore, the latest AUM of the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF Huabao (159363) exceeds 7.8 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover over the past six months surpassing 1 billion yuan, leading its peer group of 8 ETFs tracking the same index in terms of size and liquidity.

Data Source: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, etc.

ETF Fee Note: Subscription and redemption agents may charge a commission of up to 0.5% when investors subscribe for or redeem fund units. On-market trading fees are subject to the actual charges by securities firms; no sales service fee is charged.

Feeder Fund Fee Note: The Class C feeder fund for the ChiNext AI ETF does not charge a subscription fee. A redemption fee of 1.5% applies for holdings under 7 days, and 0% for 7 days or more. A sales service fee of 0.3% is charged. For the Class A feeder fund, subscription fees are 1% for amounts below 1 million yuan, 0.6% for 1 million (inclusive) to 2 million yuan, and a flat 1000 yuan per transaction for 2 million yuan (inclusive) or more. Redemption fees are 1.5% for holdings under 7 days and 0% for 7 days or more. No sales service fee is charged.

Risk Disclosure: The ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF Huabao passively tracks the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Index, which has a base date of December 28, 2018, and was released on July 11, 2024. The Sci-Tech ETF Huabao passively tracks the CSI Sci-Tech Leaders Index, which has a base date of June 29, 2012, and was released on March 20, 2019. The composition of the index constituents is adjusted according to its compilation rules. The index's back-tested historical performance is not indicative of its future results. The index constituents mentioned are for illustrative purposes only; descriptions of individual stocks are not intended as investment advice of any form and do not represent the holdings information or trading动向 of any fund managed by the manager. According to the fund manager's assessment, the risk rating of the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence ETF Huabao is R4 (Medium-High Risk), suitable for Aggressive (C4) and above investors. The suitability matching opinion is subject to the sales institution. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, commentary, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, and any form of expression) is for reference only. Investors are responsible for any independent investment decisions. Furthermore, any views, analysis, or forecasts herein do not constitute investment advice of any kind to readers, and no liability is accepted for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this content. Fund investment carries risks. The past performance of a fund is not indicative of its future results. The performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not guarantee the performance of this fund. Invest with caution.

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