Abstract
Kaspi.KZ will release its Q4 2025 financial results on March 2, 2026 after market close; this preview synthesizes company forecasts, last quarter’s performance, and current sell-side views to frame the key numbers and near-term stock drivers.Market Forecast
Consensus and company projections point to robust top line for the current quarter: Kaspi.KZ’s revenue is estimated at $1,184.19 billion, with year-over-year growth of 69.62%, alongside forecast EBIT of $384.49 billion (down 3.75% YoY) and adjusted EPS of 1,656.09 (down 2.69% YoY). Forecast margin detail was not disclosed; last quarter’s gross profit margin was 68.71% and net profit margin was 24.86%.Across the main businesses, interest and fees remain dominant contributors, supported by retail commerce in the super app. Retail commerce is positioned as the most promising segment, with last quarter revenue of $250.28 billion and consolidated YoY expansion at 70.86% providing a tailwind into Q4.
Last Quarter Review
Kaspi.KZ delivered a strong previous quarter, reporting revenue of $1,110.17 billion, gross profit margin of 68.71%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $279.42 billion, net profit margin of 24.86%, and adjusted EPS of 1,458.00; revenue grew 70.86% year-over-year and adjusted EPS rose 3.48% year-over-year. Net profit increased quarter-on-quarter by 8.58%, highlighting resilient profitability against a backdrop of elevated revenue expansion.The primary business drivers were interest revenue of $429.24 billion and net fees of $419.25 billion, complemented by retail commerce revenue of $250.28 billion and other income of $11.41 billion; the consolidated business posted substantial year-over-year growth of 70.86%, underpinning the momentum entering the current quarter.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core Revenue and Margin Drivers
The current-quarter revenue estimate of $1,184.19 billion implies a 69.62% year-over-year increase, consistent with the elevated trajectory observed last quarter. Within the super app ecosystem, activity across interest and fee-generating services has historically provided scale and profitability, and the latest guidance implies that these contributions will continue to anchor Q4 performance. While the top line is set to expand materially, the forecast indicates EBIT down 3.75% year-over-year and adjusted EPS down 2.69% year-over-year, suggesting costs, mix, or normalization effects may pressure operating profitability in the near term even as revenue surges.From an earnings-quality standpoint, investors will parse how the revenue expansion translates into margins, especially after Kaspi.KZ’s prior gross margin print of 68.71% and net margin of 24.86%. The degree to which fee and interest income contribute versus lower-margin retail activities will influence the consolidated profitability profile. A favorable mix that maintains elevated margins, combined with the implied top-line strength, would be supportive for estimates; conversely, heavier weighting to lower-margin streams could align with the modestly lower EPS and EBIT guidance relative to last year.
Management’s operational execution in scaling services within the platform remains central this quarter. The last quarter’s 8.58% quarter-on-quarter net profit increase evidences the ability to expand profitability sequentially, which is relevant as Q4 historically carries distinct seasonality and promotional dynamics. Investors will look for confirmation that sequential profitability momentum can be sustained amid the implied YoY deceleration in EBIT and EPS.
Retail Commerce Momentum
Retail commerce, at $250.28 billion last quarter, stands out as the most visible growth lever within the ecosystem, with consolidated revenue expansion of 70.86% year-over-year providing strong context heading into Q4. The segment’s scale offers multiple pathways to topline growth, including consumer purchase frequency, average order value dynamics, and merchant breadth. The quarter’s narrative will likely center on how retail commerce interacts with other services in the super app, particularly cross-sell into financial services, which can elevate engagement while supporting monetization.Given the forecast top-line increase of 69.62% year-over-year, sustained retail activity would logically underpin the guidance range and provide incremental upside if conversion or basket metrics outperform. Seasonality in Q4 often amplifies promotional cadence and consumer activity, and metrics tied to transaction volumes and platform engagement will inform whether the retail commerce segment is expanding at a pace consistent with the consolidated forecast. The ability to maintain or grow net take rates while scaling volumes can help offset cost intensity, which is crucial given the forecast for EBIT and EPS to be lower year-over-year.
Operational details that connect retail commerce to fee and interest products are also meaningful. For example, efficient checkout, payments conversion, and embedded financing may drive both retail throughput and downstream monetization in fees and interest income. If Q4 confirms this integration at scale, the segment’s contribution could outpace expectations, particularly if consumer cohorts show sustained usage and lower churn across the quarter.
Stock Price Swing Factors
The most material stock price influences in the near term are the trajectory of adjusted EPS versus consolidated revenue, the margin print relative to last quarter’s 68.71% gross margin and 24.86% net margin, and guidance commentary for subsequent quarters. The forecast implies lower year-over-year EBIT and EPS, which sets a cautious tone for profitability even as revenue expands at a high clip; a margin outcome that aligns with last quarter or demonstrates improved efficiencies would likely be viewed favorably. Conversely, heavier cost structures or an adverse revenue mix that compress margins could reinforce the guided EPS and EBIT declines and constrain sentiment.Another factor is the degree of revenue surprise relative to the estimate, given Kaspi.KZ’s last quarter revenue outperformance of $94.70 billion versus estimate. If Q4 delivers a comparable or larger positive variance against the $1,184.19 billion forecast, the stock may react well even if EPS is down year-over-year, provided profitability stays within a tolerable range. On the other hand, a top-line miss coupled with weaker-than-expected margins would likely prompt estimate resets and sharper price reactions.
Finally, sell-side positioning and the cadence of rating changes can be impactful. The current average stance indicates an overweight profile with a mean price target of $89.08, while an isolated neutral move (not part of the majority view) highlights sensitivity to execution and valuation. The balance of estimates and rating distributions heading into the print, and any revisions immediately after, will feed into the stock’s post-report trajectory.
Analyst Opinions
Based on collected views in the current window, bullish outweighs bearish with a ratio of 100% to 0%, and we focus on the majority side. Analysts polled by FactSet indicate an average rating of overweight and a mean price target of $89.08, reflecting expectations that Kaspi.KZ’s consolidated revenue momentum and ecosystem engagement can support the growth narrative even with guided year-over-year declines in EBIT and adjusted EPS. The overweight stance is grounded in the company’s ability to deliver high double-digit revenue expansion, with last quarter’s 70.86% year-over-year increase and the current 69.62% forecast positioning the top line as the key driver of investment conclusions.This view emphasizes the interplay between scale and monetization across the super app. Analysts highlight that the contribution from interest and fee-generating services provides a stable base, while retail commerce adds incremental growth through customer acquisition, transaction frequency, and platform stickiness. The assumption underlying the overweight calls is that management will balance promotional intensity and cost control to preserve margins near prior levels despite the current guidance pointing to lower EBIT and adjusted EPS versus last year.
The majority perspective anticipates that Q4 will confirm durable engagement, with transaction metrics and cross-sell in the app supporting consolidated revenue above historical baselines. Under this framework, a revenue delivery near or above the $1,184.19 billion estimate, accompanied by margins that do not materially underperform last quarter’s 68.71% gross margin and 24.86% net margin, is sufficient to maintain constructive sentiment. Post-print, the same analysts will look for guidance signals about the first half of 2026, especially any commentary that reconciles the high revenue growth with planned efficiency gains that could stabilize or improve profitability metrics as the year progresses.
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