美股美债救世主来了？一文看懂本周三美联储做了什么

华尔街见闻2021-03-18

从市场反应看，美联储本周三扮演了救世主。在美联储公布本周货币政策会议的决议后，联储主席鲍威尔讲话期间，美国三大股指昂首上扬，纳指更是抹平早盘1%以上的跌幅，携手标普转涨，创一年多新高的长期美债收益率短线回落，显示美债抛售势头暂时缓和。那么，美联储的会议声明和鲍威尔究竟说了什么？事实上，美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，不管是近零利率还是当前的每月QE购债规模，和今年1月的上次会议决策相比，都没有...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

SG_CY
2021-03-18
SG_CY
可以漲了麼？
求金
2021-03-18
求金
[强]
oweng
2021-03-18
oweng
好
赞我的今年账户翻十倍
2021-03-18
赞我的今年账户翻十倍
1.9萬億不夠，必須更多
chanel28
2021-03-18
chanel28
??
- chanel28:
  ??
健安_1832
2021-03-18
健安_1832
來了嗎
- 赞我的今年账户翻十倍:
  [开心]

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2120213935?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-03-18 08:29","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2120213935","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美股美债救世主来了？一文看懂本周三美联储做了什么","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n从市场反应看，美联储本周三扮演了救世主。在美联储公布本周货币政策会议的决议后，联储主席鲍威尔讲话期间，美国三大股指昂首上扬，纳指更是抹平早盘1%以上的跌幅，携手标普转涨，创一年多新高的长期美债收益率短线回落，显示美债抛售势头暂时缓和。那么，美联储的会议声明和鲍威尔究竟说了什么？事实上，美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，不管是近零利率还是当前的每月QE购债规模，和今年1月的上次会议决策相比，都没有...\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_api","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股美债救世主来了？一文看懂本周三美联储做了什么</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股美债救世主来了？一文看懂本周三美联储做了什么\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-18 08:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126>华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n从市场反应看，美联储本周三扮演了救世主。在美联储公布本周货币政策会议的决议后，联储主席鲍威尔讲话期间，美国三大股指昂首上扬，纳指更是抹平早盘1%以上的跌幅，携手标普转涨，创一年多新高的长期美债收益率短线回落，显示美债抛售势头暂时缓和。那么，美联储的会议声明和鲍威尔究竟说了什么？事实上，美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，不管是近零利率还是当前的每月QE购债规模，和今年1月的上次会议决策相比，都没有...\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"FT_SY_ZT","symbol_name":"2年美债","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126","article_id":"2120213935","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_api","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120213935","pubTimestamp":1616027359,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_api","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，虽然上调了今明两年的GDP预期和三年内的核心通胀预期，但根本没有表露近期要开始缩减QE的意愿，并且重申仍要保持当前购债的规模，直到经济有进一步的实质性进展。鲍威尔还明确表示，无需对近期美债收益率上升做任何反应，要看到实际的通胀实质性且持续超过2%的目标，而不是预期将超过2%，然后才会收缩货币。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国"},"translate_title":"Is the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt coming? Understand what the Fed did on Wednesday","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c305a099916f95aca76d94d24caeedf","symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"BND":0.9,"TLT":0.9},"content_text":"从市场反应看，美联储本周三扮演了救世主。在美联储公布本周货币政策会议的决议后，联储主席鲍威尔讲话期间，美国三大股指昂首上扬，纳指更是抹平早盘1%以上的跌幅，携手标普转涨，创一年多新高的长期美债收益率短线回落，显示美债抛售势头暂时缓和。那么，美联储的会议声明和鲍威尔究竟说了什么？事实上，美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，不管是近零利率还是当前的每月QE购债规模，和今年1月的上次会议决策相比，都没有任何变化。在最近的经济展望中，美联储倒是上调了经济预期，尤其是今年的GDP增速预期，也上调了三年内的核心通胀预期，等于承认了更看好近两年美国经济复苏，预计通胀会更快回升，但联储根本没有表露近期要开始缩减QE的意愿，并且重申仍要保持当前购债的规模，直到经济有进一步的实质性进展。鲍威尔还明确表示，无需对近期美债收益率上升做任何反应。在介绍经济情况方面，本次会议声明继续重申，新冠疫情对美国及全球造成重大的经济困难，并称“在（经济）以温和步伐复苏后，经济活动和就业的指标最近已经回升，但疫情影响最为负面的一些行业仍疲软”，而今年1月的声明所说的是：“近几个月经济活动和就业复苏的步伐温和，疲软集中在最受疫情负面影响的行业。”在新冠疫情方面，和1月声明一样，本次声明也重申，“部分经济将严重依赖疫情发展形势”，并加上了“包括接种的进展”。本次声明依然认为，新冠疫情带来的公共卫生危机“继续施压经济活动、就业和通胀，并对经济前景构成重大风险。”再次重申保持购债 无需对美债收益率过度反应 即将官宣SLR决策本次会后声明再次重申去年12月上上次会后的购债指引，即联储“将增加所持的美国债券，至少每月购买800亿美元美国国债和400亿美元机构住房抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），直到对实现（货币政策）委员会的充分就业和价格稳定目标取得实质性的进一步进展为止。”声明中并没有任何未来可能改变上述购债指引的措辞，也没有提及全称银行补充杠杆率（supplementary leverage ratio）的SLR松绑政策。此次会议决议公布前，本周三当天，10年和30年期美债的收益率在美股早盘大幅攀升，创一年多来新高。评论称，这显示市场对美联储的决议感到紧张。市场关心美联储是否会就6月真正开始采取行动的前景给出线索，比如是否会采取措施避免伯南克任美联储主席时出现的缩减QE恐慌（Taper Tantrum），是否会重新起用卖出短期美债同时买入长期美债的扭转操作（Operation Twist）。在会后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔谈到过去一个月美债收益率显著蹿升时指出，重要的是金融状况继续保持宽松，总体而言，当前金融状况仍然高度宽松，因此“无需对过去一个月的美债收益率大幅上涨作反应”。鲍威尔表示，目前的QE购债政策是合适的，还不是开始讨论缩减债券购买力度的时机，如果美联储可能考虑缩减QE，将提前很久给出通知。美联储将对维持宽松政策保持耐心，直至完成职责：“美联储在考虑缩表之前，需要在实现2%的长期通胀和最大化就业目标方面看到实质性的进一步进展。在我们发出考虑缩表的信号之前，你可以假设我们还没到缩表的时候。”不过，他也重申本月早些时候的观点，即如果市场状况混乱，或是金融状况持续收紧威胁到美联储实现就业和通胀的双重目标，他会感到担忧。分析指出，之前市场猜测美联储是否会对美债收益率走高采取行动，例如暗示这种情况正在引发不受欢迎的金融状况收紧，这可能是美联储介入的前兆。但本周三鲍威尔显然没有如此承诺。对于市场广泛关注的SLR 豁免在3月31日到期后是否延续的问题，鲍威尔在问答环节表示，现在先不回答，马上要作正式宣布，“未来数日，我们将围绕SLR宣布最新通知。”SLR是一种商业银行的资本充足率指标。2007-09年金融危机后，为防范银行系统风险，美国重新修改SLR的相关规定，对美国大银行额外杠杆加以限制。去年新冠疫情爆发后，美联储加码货币宽松，被列入SLR计算的银行准备金大幅上升，为促进金融系统运作和经济复苏，美联储等监管部门决定放松SLR政策，将准备金及国债排除在SLR指标之外，便于存款机构买美债，这种放宽政策定于本月31日到期。SLR规定的改变可能会导致华尔街大型银行削减证券持仓和放贷。如果这一政策不能延长期限，可能引发市场抛售资产。上周纽约联储数据显示，截至3月3日一周，一级经纪商的美国国债持仓减少647亿美元，创单周最高降幅。此后评论称，正是因为更不确定松绑SLR能否延期，所以经纪商激进抛售美债。目前市场对于美联储的提前表态预期非常高。考虑到不豁免的潜在后果，摩根大通最近预计，美联储大概率将延长SLR豁免，认为准备金及国债的豁免都将延长。预计2023年加息官员增加但多数仍预期不加息 实际通胀持续超过2%才可能告别QE本次声明继续重申去年9月公布的利率前瞻指引，称FOMC“委员会的目标将是，在一段时间内实现通胀适度高于2%，以便让一段时间内的平均通胀达到2%，并且长期通胀预期仍很好地锚定在2%。在通胀和金融环境方面，本次声明删除了1月声明重申的“需求更疲软和油价大幅下跌拉低CPI通胀”，新增表述“通胀继续低于2%”，保留了“金融环境总体好转，部分反映出政策措施支持经济，美国家庭和个人得到信贷”的说辞。会后公布的点阵图显示，和去年12月上次发布的点阵图一样，所有美联储官员均预计今年利率保持不变，不同于上次点阵图的是，本次有4人预计2022年将加息，比上次多1人；本次18人中有7人预计2023年会加息，人数占比将近40%，比上次预期2023年加息者多2人，而且7人中有6人预计届时利率超过0.5%（若一次加息25个基点，即可能在当前基础上至少两次加息）。和上次一样，在2023年之后的更长时间内，多数联储官员预计利率会升至2.5%，高于联储长期目标2%。鲍威尔在会后的发布会上称，大多数货币政策委员会FOMC成员都没有预期2023年要加息。在谈到市场关注的通胀话题时，鲍威尔指出，美联储参考的是实际的通胀率，需要看到实际的通货膨胀“实质性且持续超过2%目标”，而不是“预期将超过2%”，而后才会开启紧缩政策。鲍威尔称，当前的QE购债是适合的，还没有到讨论缩减购债的时候。“美联储在考虑缩表之前，需要在实现2%的长期通胀和最大化就业目标方面看到实质性的进一步进展。在我们发出考虑缩表的信号之前，你可以假设我们还没到缩表的时候。”上调两年内GDP增速预期和三年内PCE通胀预期 下调失业率预期会后公布的更新后经济展望数据显示，美联储上调了今明两年的GDP增长预期，下调了2023年的增长预期，下调了今、明、后三年的失业率预期，上调了今、明、后三年的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）通胀率以及剔除食品与能源的核心PCE通胀预期。分析称，虽然美联储将今年的名义PCE和核心PCE预期分别上调至2.4%和2.2%，但预计都将在明年重新降至2%，代表通胀压力短暂。美联储官员预计的中位值为：2021年和2022年GDP分别预计增长6.5%和3.3%，分别较去年12月公布的上次预期增速上调2.3和0.1个百分点，2023年的GDP预期增速从上次的2.4%降至2.2%。2021年、2022年和2023年失业率预期分别为4.5%、3.9%和3.5%，较上次预期分别下调0.5、0.3和0.2个百分点。2021年、2022年和2023年PCE通胀预期分别为2.4%、2.0%和2.1%，较上次预期分别上调0.6、0.1和0.1个百分点。2021年、2022年和2023年核心PCE通胀预期分别为2.2%、2.0%和2.1%，较上次预期分别上调0.4、0.1和0.1个百分点。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":324727173,"gmtCreate":1616032826992,"gmtModify":1704789982227,"author":{"id":"3562192794306591","authorId":"3562192794306591","name":"SG_CY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c23ec4031439c90ac231239298ecc161","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3562192794306591","idStr":"3562192794306591"},"htmlText":"可以漲了麼？","listText":"可以漲了麼？","text":"可以漲了麼？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324727173","repostId":2120213935,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2120213935","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616027359,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2120213935?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-18 08:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120213935","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，虽然上调了今明两年的GDP预期和三年内的核心通胀预期，但根本没有表露近期要开始缩减QE的意愿，并且重申仍要保持当前购债的规模，直到经济有进一步的实质性进展。鲍威尔还明确表示，无需对近期美债收益率上升做任何反应，要看到实际的通胀实质性且持续超过2%的目标，而不是预期将超过2%，然后才会收缩货币。","content":"Judging from the market reaction, the Federal Reserve played the savior on Wednesday.After the Federal Reserve announced the resolution of this week's monetary policy meeting, during Fed President Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose with their heads held high, and the Nasdaq even smoothed out the decline of more than 1% in early trading. The short-term fall in U.S. bond yields shows that the selling momentum of U.S. bonds has temporarily eased. So, what exactly did the Fed's meeting statement and Powell say?In fact, the Federal Reserve has not taken any new policy actions. Whether it is near-zero interest rates or the current monthly QE bond purchase scale, there has been no change compared with the decision at the last meeting in January this year.In the recent economic outlook, the Federal Reserve has raised its economic forecasts, especially this year's GDP growth forecast, and also raised its core inflation forecast within three years, which is equivalent to admitting that it is more optimistic about the recovery of the U.S. economy in the past two years and expects inflation to be faster. However, the Fed has not expressed its willingness to start reducing QE in the near future, and reiterated that it will still maintain the current scale of bond purchases until the economy makes further substantial progress. Powell also made it clear that there is no need to react to the recent rise in U.S. bond yields.In terms of introducing the economic situation, the statement of this meeting continued to reiterate that COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant economic difficulties to the United States and the world, and said that \"after (the economy) recovered at a moderate pace, indicators of economic activity and employment have recently picked up, but the impact of the epidemic Some of the most negative industries are still weak,\" while the January statement said: \"The pace of economic activity and employment recovery in recent months has been moderate, with weakness concentrated in the industries most negatively affected by the epidemic.\"In terms of COVID-19 pandemic, like the January statement, this statement alsoReaffirm，“Some economies will rely heavily on the development of the epidemic situation\", and added\"Including progress of vaccination”。 The statement still believes that the public health crisis brought about by COVID-19 pandemic \"continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, and poses a significant risk to the economic outlook.\"<h2>Once again reiterate that there is no need to overreact to U.S. bond yields to maintain bond purchases and will soon officially announce the SLR decision</h2>The post-meeting statement once again reiterated the bond purchase guidance after the last meeting in December last year, that is, the Fed \"will increase its holdings of U.S. bonds and purchase at least $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities every month (MBS),Until substantial further progress has been made towards achieving the goals of full employment and price stability of the (Monetary Policy) Committee。”There is no wording in the statement that may change the above-mentioned bond purchase guidance in the future, nor does it mention the SLR loosening policy, which is the full name of bank supplementary leverage ratio.Before the announcement of the meeting resolution, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. bonds rose sharply in early trading on Wednesday, hitting a new high in more than a year. The commentary said that this shows that the market is nervous about the Fed's decision. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will give clues about the prospect of actually starting to take action in June, such as whether it will take measures to avoid the Taper Tantrum that occurred when Bernanke was Fed chairman, and whether it will resume selling short-term U.S. bonds. Operation Twist, which simultaneously buys long-term U.S. bonds.At the press conference after the meeting, Powell pointed out that it is important that financial conditions continue to remain loose when talking about the significant surge in U.S. bond yields in the past month.Overall, current financial conditions remain highly accommodative, so there is \"no need to react to the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields over the past month.\"。Powell said that the current QE bond purchase policy is appropriate, and it is not the time to start discussing reducing bond purchases. If the Fed may consider reducing QE, it will give a long notice in advance. The Fed will remain patient in maintaining accommodative policy until it completes its duties:\"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment goals before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet.\" However, he also reiterated his view earlier this month that he would be concerned if market conditions were chaotic or if continued tightening of financial conditions threatened the Fed's dual goals of employment and inflation.The analysis pointed out that the market had previously speculated whether the Federal Reserve would take action on higher U.S. bond yields, such as suggesting that this situation was triggering an unwelcome tightening of financial conditions, which may be a precursor to the Fed's intervention. But on Wednesday, Powell apparently didn't promise so much.Regarding the question of whether the SLR exemption will be extended after it expires on March 31, which has been widely concerned by the market, Powell said in the question and answer session that he will not answer it now and will make an official announcement soon, \"In the next few days, we will announce the latest notice around SLR.\"SLR is a capital adequacy ratio indicator of commercial banks. After the financial crisis in 2007-09, in order to prevent risks in the banking system, the United States revised the relevant regulations of SLR to restrict the additional leverage of big American banks. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic last year, the Federal Reserve stepped up monetary easing, and bank reserves included in the SLR calculation rose sharply. In order to promote the operation of the financial system and economic recovery, the Federal Reserve and other regulatory authorities decided to relax the SLR policy and exclude reserves and Treasury Bond. Outside the SLR indicator, it is convenient for depository institutions to buy U.S. debt. This relaxation policy is scheduled to expire on the 31st of this month.Changes to the SLR rules could cause large Wall Street banks to cut their securities holdings and lending. If this policy cannot be extended, it may trigger the market to sell assets. Last week, data from the New York Fed showed that in the week ending March 3, the U.S. Treasury Bond holdings of first-tier brokers decreased by $64.7 billion, the highest weekly decline. Since then, it has been commented that it is precisely because it is even more uncertain whether the loosening of SLR can be postponed that brokers have aggressively sold U.S. debt.At present, the market has very high expectations for the Fed's early statement. Considering the potential consequences of non-exemption,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Recently, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely extend the SLR exemption, believing that both reserve and Treasury Bond exemptions will be extended.<h2>Rate hike officials are expected to increase in 2023, but most still do not expect rate hike's real inflation to continue to exceed 2% before it is possible to bid farewell to QE</h2>This statementKeep reiteratingThe forward guidance on interest rates released last September said that the FOMC's \"committee'sThe goal will be to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for a period of time, so that the average inflation over time can reach 2%, and long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%.In terms of inflation and financial environment, this statement deleted \"weaker demand and sharp drops in oil prices have lowered CPI inflation\" reiterated in the January statement, added the statement \"inflation continues to be below 2%\", and retained \"the overall financial environment The improvement partly reflects the rhetoric that policy measures support the economy and American families and individuals get credit.\"The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in December last year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year.Different from the last dot plot, this time, 4 people are expected to be in rate hike in 2022, one more than last time; This timeOf 18Seven people expect a rate hike in 2023, accounting for nearly 40%, 2 more than the last expected rate hike in 2023, and 6 out of 7 people expect the interest rate to exceed 0.5% by then.(If one rate hike is 25 basis points, it may be at least two rate hike on the current basis). As last time, longer beyond 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, above the Fed's long-term target of 2%.<img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/b15a7cc1-8168-44a2-806a-429ba9803d9c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that most FOMC members of the Monetary Policy Committee did not expect a rate hike in 2023.When talking about the topic of inflation that the market is concerned about,Powell pointed out that the Fed is referring to the actual inflation rate and needs to see that the actual inflation \"substantially and consistently exceeds the 2% target\" rather than \"expected to exceed 2%\" before starting tightening policy。Powell said that the current QE bond purchases are appropriate and it is not yet time to discuss tapering bond purchases. \"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment targets before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we send the signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet yet.\"<h2>Raised GDP growth forecast within two years and PCE inflation forecast within three years, lowered unemployment forecast</h2>The updated economic outlook data released after the meeting showed that the Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecast for this year and next, lowered its growth forecast for 2023, lowered its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and the next three years, and raised its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) inflation rate for the next three years and core PCE inflation expectations excluding food and energy.According to the analysis, although the Federal Reserve has raised its nominal PCE and core PCE forecasts to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively for this year, both are expected to drop again to 2% next year, representing short-lived inflationary pressures.The median expected by Fed officials is:<ul><li>GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% and 3.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, which are 2.3 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the last expected growth rate announced in December last year. The expected GDP growth rate in 2023 has dropped from the last 2.4% to 2.2%.%.</li><li>The unemployment rate in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is expected to be 4.5%, 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively, down 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.</li><li>PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.4%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.6, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li><li>Core PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.2%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.4, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li></ul><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ab19f2f8-b8b7-4b99-87d1-968dfcf203d8.jpg\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-03-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nJudging from the market reaction, the Federal Reserve played the savior on Wednesday.After the Federal Reserve announced the resolution of this week's monetary policy meeting, during Fed President Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose with their heads held high, and the Nasdaq even smoothed out the decline of more than 1% in early trading. The short-term fall in U.S. bond yields shows that the selling momentum of U.S. bonds has temporarily eased. So, what exactly did the Fed's meeting statement and Powell say?In fact, the Federal Reserve has not taken any new policy actions. Whether it is near-zero interest rates or the current monthly QE bond purchase scale, there has been no change compared with the decision at the last meeting in January this year.In the recent economic outlook, the Federal Reserve has raised its economic forecasts, especially this year's GDP growth forecast, and also raised its core inflation forecast within three years, which is equivalent to admitting that it is more optimistic about the recovery of the U.S. economy in the past two years and expects inflation to be faster. However, the Fed has not expressed its willingness to start reducing QE in the near future, and reiterated that it will still maintain the current scale of bond purchases until the economy makes further substantial progress. Powell also made it clear that there is no need to react to the recent rise in U.S. bond yields.In terms of introducing the economic situation, the statement of this meeting continued to reiterate that COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant economic difficulties to the United States and the world, and said that \"after (the economy) recovered at a moderate pace, indicators of economic activity and employment have recently picked up, but the impact of the epidemic Some of the most negative industries are still weak,\" while the January statement said: \"The pace of economic activity and employment recovery in recent months has been moderate, with weakness concentrated in the industries most negatively affected by the epidemic.\"In terms of COVID-19 pandemic, like the January statement, this statement alsoReaffirm，“Some economies will rely heavily on the development of the epidemic situation\", and added\"Including progress of vaccination”。 The statement still believes that the public health crisis brought about by COVID-19 pandemic \"continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, and poses a significant risk to the economic outlook.\"<h2>Once again reiterate that there is no need to overreact to U.S. bond yields to maintain bond purchases and will soon officially announce the SLR decision</h2>The post-meeting statement once again reiterated the bond purchase guidance after the last meeting in December last year, that is, the Fed \"will increase its holdings of U.S. bonds and purchase at least $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities every month (MBS),Until substantial further progress has been made towards achieving the goals of full employment and price stability of the (Monetary Policy) Committee。”There is no wording in the statement that may change the above-mentioned bond purchase guidance in the future, nor does it mention the SLR loosening policy, which is the full name of bank supplementary leverage ratio.Before the announcement of the meeting resolution, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. bonds rose sharply in early trading on Wednesday, hitting a new high in more than a year. The commentary said that this shows that the market is nervous about the Fed's decision. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will give clues about the prospect of actually starting to take action in June, such as whether it will take measures to avoid the Taper Tantrum that occurred when Bernanke was Fed chairman, and whether it will resume selling short-term U.S. bonds. Operation Twist, which simultaneously buys long-term U.S. bonds.At the press conference after the meeting, Powell pointed out that it is important that financial conditions continue to remain loose when talking about the significant surge in U.S. bond yields in the past month.Overall, current financial conditions remain highly accommodative, so there is \"no need to react to the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields over the past month.\"。Powell said that the current QE bond purchase policy is appropriate, and it is not the time to start discussing reducing bond purchases. If the Fed may consider reducing QE, it will give a long notice in advance. The Fed will remain patient in maintaining accommodative policy until it completes its duties:\"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment goals before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet.\" However, he also reiterated his view earlier this month that he would be concerned if market conditions were chaotic or if continued tightening of financial conditions threatened the Fed's dual goals of employment and inflation.The analysis pointed out that the market had previously speculated whether the Federal Reserve would take action on higher U.S. bond yields, such as suggesting that this situation was triggering an unwelcome tightening of financial conditions, which may be a precursor to the Fed's intervention. But on Wednesday, Powell apparently didn't promise so much.Regarding the question of whether the SLR exemption will be extended after it expires on March 31, which has been widely concerned by the market, Powell said in the question and answer session that he will not answer it now and will make an official announcement soon, \"In the next few days, we will announce the latest notice around SLR.\"SLR is a capital adequacy ratio indicator of commercial banks. After the financial crisis in 2007-09, in order to prevent risks in the banking system, the United States revised the relevant regulations of SLR to restrict the additional leverage of big American banks. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic last year, the Federal Reserve stepped up monetary easing, and bank reserves included in the SLR calculation rose sharply. In order to promote the operation of the financial system and economic recovery, the Federal Reserve and other regulatory authorities decided to relax the SLR policy and exclude reserves and Treasury Bond. Outside the SLR indicator, it is convenient for depository institutions to buy U.S. debt. This relaxation policy is scheduled to expire on the 31st of this month.Changes to the SLR rules could cause large Wall Street banks to cut their securities holdings and lending. If this policy cannot be extended, it may trigger the market to sell assets. Last week, data from the New York Fed showed that in the week ending March 3, the U.S. Treasury Bond holdings of first-tier brokers decreased by $64.7 billion, the highest weekly decline. Since then, it has been commented that it is precisely because it is even more uncertain whether the loosening of SLR can be postponed that brokers have aggressively sold U.S. debt.At present, the market has very high expectations for the Fed's early statement. Considering the potential consequences of non-exemption,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Recently, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely extend the SLR exemption, believing that both reserve and Treasury Bond exemptions will be extended.<h2>Rate hike officials are expected to increase in 2023, but most still do not expect rate hike's real inflation to continue to exceed 2% before it is possible to bid farewell to QE</h2>This statementKeep reiteratingThe forward guidance on interest rates released last September said that the FOMC's \"committee'sThe goal will be to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for a period of time, so that the average inflation over time can reach 2%, and long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%.In terms of inflation and financial environment, this statement deleted \"weaker demand and sharp drops in oil prices have lowered CPI inflation\" reiterated in the January statement, added the statement \"inflation continues to be below 2%\", and retained \"the overall financial environment The improvement partly reflects the rhetoric that policy measures support the economy and American families and individuals get credit.\"The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in December last year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year.Different from the last dot plot, this time, 4 people are expected to be in rate hike in 2022, one more than last time; This timeOf 18Seven people expect a rate hike in 2023, accounting for nearly 40%, 2 more than the last expected rate hike in 2023, and 6 out of 7 people expect the interest rate to exceed 0.5% by then.(If one rate hike is 25 basis points, it may be at least two rate hike on the current basis). As last time, longer beyond 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, above the Fed's long-term target of 2%.<img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/b15a7cc1-8168-44a2-806a-429ba9803d9c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that most FOMC members of the Monetary Policy Committee did not expect a rate hike in 2023.When talking about the topic of inflation that the market is concerned about,Powell pointed out that the Fed is referring to the actual inflation rate and needs to see that the actual inflation \"substantially and consistently exceeds the 2% target\" rather than \"expected to exceed 2%\" before starting tightening policy。Powell said that the current QE bond purchases are appropriate and it is not yet time to discuss tapering bond purchases. \"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment targets before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we send the signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet yet.\"<h2>Raised GDP growth forecast within two years and PCE inflation forecast within three years, lowered unemployment forecast</h2>The updated economic outlook data released after the meeting showed that the Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecast for this year and next, lowered its growth forecast for 2023, lowered its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and the next three years, and raised its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) inflation rate for the next three years and core PCE inflation expectations excluding food and energy.According to the analysis, although the Federal Reserve has raised its nominal PCE and core PCE forecasts to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively for this year, both are expected to drop again to 2% next year, representing short-lived inflationary pressures.The median expected by Fed officials is:<ul><li>GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% and 3.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, which are 2.3 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the last expected growth rate announced in December last year. The expected GDP growth rate in 2023 has dropped from the last 2.4% to 2.2%.%.</li><li>The unemployment rate in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is expected to be 4.5%, 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively, down 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.</li><li>PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.4%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.6, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li><li>Core PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.2%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.4, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li></ul><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ab19f2f8-b8b7-4b99-87d1-968dfcf203d8.jpg\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de","relate_stocks":{"TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120213935","content_text":"从市场反应看，美联储本周三扮演了救世主。在美联储公布本周货币政策会议的决议后，联储主席鲍威尔讲话期间，美国三大股指昂首上扬，纳指更是抹平早盘1%以上的跌幅，携手标普转涨，创一年多新高的长期美债收益率短线回落，显示美债抛售势头暂时缓和。那么，美联储的会议声明和鲍威尔究竟说了什么？事实上，美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，不管是近零利率还是当前的每月QE购债规模，和今年1月的上次会议决策相比，都没有任何变化。在最近的经济展望中，美联储倒是上调了经济预期，尤其是今年的GDP增速预期，也上调了三年内的核心通胀预期，等于承认了更看好近两年美国经济复苏，预计通胀会更快回升，但联储根本没有表露近期要开始缩减QE的意愿，并且重申仍要保持当前购债的规模，直到经济有进一步的实质性进展。鲍威尔还明确表示，无需对近期美债收益率上升做任何反应。在介绍经济情况方面，本次会议声明继续重申，新冠疫情对美国及全球造成重大的经济困难，并称“在（经济）以温和步伐复苏后，经济活动和就业的指标最近已经回升，但疫情影响最为负面的一些行业仍疲软”，而今年1月的声明所说的是：“近几个月经济活动和就业复苏的步伐温和，疲软集中在最受疫情负面影响的行业。”在新冠疫情方面，和1月声明一样，本次声明也重申，“部分经济将严重依赖疫情发展形势”，并加上了“包括接种的进展”。本次声明依然认为，新冠疫情带来的公共卫生危机“继续施压经济活动、就业和通胀，并对经济前景构成重大风险。”再次重申保持购债 无需对美债收益率过度反应 即将官宣SLR决策本次会后声明再次重申去年12月上上次会后的购债指引，即联储“将增加所持的美国债券，至少每月购买800亿美元美国国债和400亿美元机构住房抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），直到对实现（货币政策）委员会的充分就业和价格稳定目标取得实质性的进一步进展为止。”声明中并没有任何未来可能改变上述购债指引的措辞，也没有提及全称银行补充杠杆率（supplementary leverage ratio）的SLR松绑政策。此次会议决议公布前，本周三当天，10年和30年期美债的收益率在美股早盘大幅攀升，创一年多来新高。评论称，这显示市场对美联储的决议感到紧张。市场关心美联储是否会就6月真正开始采取行动的前景给出线索，比如是否会采取措施避免伯南克任美联储主席时出现的缩减QE恐慌（Taper Tantrum），是否会重新起用卖出短期美债同时买入长期美债的扭转操作（Operation Twist）。在会后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔谈到过去一个月美债收益率显著蹿升时指出，重要的是金融状况继续保持宽松，总体而言，当前金融状况仍然高度宽松，因此“无需对过去一个月的美债收益率大幅上涨作反应”。鲍威尔表示，目前的QE购债政策是合适的，还不是开始讨论缩减债券购买力度的时机，如果美联储可能考虑缩减QE，将提前很久给出通知。美联储将对维持宽松政策保持耐心，直至完成职责：“美联储在考虑缩表之前，需要在实现2%的长期通胀和最大化就业目标方面看到实质性的进一步进展。在我们发出考虑缩表的信号之前，你可以假设我们还没到缩表的时候。”不过，他也重申本月早些时候的观点，即如果市场状况混乱，或是金融状况持续收紧威胁到美联储实现就业和通胀的双重目标，他会感到担忧。分析指出，之前市场猜测美联储是否会对美债收益率走高采取行动，例如暗示这种情况正在引发不受欢迎的金融状况收紧，这可能是美联储介入的前兆。但本周三鲍威尔显然没有如此承诺。对于市场广泛关注的SLR 豁免在3月31日到期后是否延续的问题，鲍威尔在问答环节表示，现在先不回答，马上要作正式宣布，“未来数日，我们将围绕SLR宣布最新通知。”SLR是一种商业银行的资本充足率指标。2007-09年金融危机后，为防范银行系统风险，美国重新修改SLR的相关规定，对美国大银行额外杠杆加以限制。去年新冠疫情爆发后，美联储加码货币宽松，被列入SLR计算的银行准备金大幅上升，为促进金融系统运作和经济复苏，美联储等监管部门决定放松SLR政策，将准备金及国债排除在SLR指标之外，便于存款机构买美债，这种放宽政策定于本月31日到期。SLR规定的改变可能会导致华尔街大型银行削减证券持仓和放贷。如果这一政策不能延长期限，可能引发市场抛售资产。上周纽约联储数据显示，截至3月3日一周，一级经纪商的美国国债持仓减少647亿美元，创单周最高降幅。此后评论称，正是因为更不确定松绑SLR能否延期，所以经纪商激进抛售美债。目前市场对于美联储的提前表态预期非常高。考虑到不豁免的潜在后果，摩根大通最近预计，美联储大概率将延长SLR豁免，认为准备金及国债的豁免都将延长。预计2023年加息官员增加但多数仍预期不加息 实际通胀持续超过2%才可能告别QE本次声明继续重申去年9月公布的利率前瞻指引，称FOMC“委员会的目标将是，在一段时间内实现通胀适度高于2%，以便让一段时间内的平均通胀达到2%，并且长期通胀预期仍很好地锚定在2%。在通胀和金融环境方面，本次声明删除了1月声明重申的“需求更疲软和油价大幅下跌拉低CPI通胀”，新增表述“通胀继续低于2%”，保留了“金融环境总体好转，部分反映出政策措施支持经济，美国家庭和个人得到信贷”的说辞。会后公布的点阵图显示，和去年12月上次发布的点阵图一样，所有美联储官员均预计今年利率保持不变，不同于上次点阵图的是，本次有4人预计2022年将加息，比上次多1人；本次18人中有7人预计2023年会加息，人数占比将近40%，比上次预期2023年加息者多2人，而且7人中有6人预计届时利率超过0.5%（若一次加息25个基点，即可能在当前基础上至少两次加息）。和上次一样，在2023年之后的更长时间内，多数联储官员预计利率会升至2.5%，高于联储长期目标2%。鲍威尔在会后的发布会上称，大多数货币政策委员会FOMC成员都没有预期2023年要加息。在谈到市场关注的通胀话题时，鲍威尔指出，美联储参考的是实际的通胀率，需要看到实际的通货膨胀“实质性且持续超过2%目标”，而不是“预期将超过2%”，而后才会开启紧缩政策。鲍威尔称，当前的QE购债是适合的，还没有到讨论缩减购债的时候。“美联储在考虑缩表之前，需要在实现2%的长期通胀和最大化就业目标方面看到实质性的进一步进展。在我们发出考虑缩表的信号之前，你可以假设我们还没到缩表的时候。”上调两年内GDP增速预期和三年内PCE通胀预期 下调失业率预期会后公布的更新后经济展望数据显示，美联储上调了今明两年的GDP增长预期，下调了2023年的增长预期，下调了今、明、后三年的失业率预期，上调了今、明、后三年的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）通胀率以及剔除食品与能源的核心PCE通胀预期。分析称，虽然美联储将今年的名义PCE和核心PCE预期分别上调至2.4%和2.2%，但预计都将在明年重新降至2%，代表通胀压力短暂。美联储官员预计的中位值为：2021年和2022年GDP分别预计增长6.5%和3.3%，分别较去年12月公布的上次预期增速上调2.3和0.1个百分点，2023年的GDP预期增速从上次的2.4%降至2.2%。2021年、2022年和2023年失业率预期分别为4.5%、3.9%和3.5%，较上次预期分别下调0.5、0.3和0.2个百分点。2021年、2022年和2023年PCE通胀预期分别为2.4%、2.0%和2.1%，较上次预期分别上调0.6、0.1和0.1个百分点。2021年、2022年和2023年核心PCE通胀预期分别为2.2%、2.0%和2.1%，较上次预期分别上调0.4、0.1和0.1个百分点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"BND":0.9,"TLT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":324788478,"gmtCreate":1616031045594,"gmtModify":1704789948360,"author":{"id":"3573168884997306","authorId":"3573168884997306","name":"求金","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/869d585d3a198da2a97a46b697e6c522","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3573168884997306","idStr":"3573168884997306"},"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324788478","repostId":2120213935,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2120213935","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616027359,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2120213935?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-18 08:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120213935","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，虽然上调了今明两年的GDP预期和三年内的核心通胀预期，但根本没有表露近期要开始缩减QE的意愿，并且重申仍要保持当前购债的规模，直到经济有进一步的实质性进展。鲍威尔还明确表示，无需对近期美债收益率上升做任何反应，要看到实际的通胀实质性且持续超过2%的目标，而不是预期将超过2%，然后才会收缩货币。","content":"Judging from the market reaction, the Federal Reserve played the savior on Wednesday.After the Federal Reserve announced the resolution of this week's monetary policy meeting, during Fed President Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose with their heads held high, and the Nasdaq even smoothed out the decline of more than 1% in early trading. The short-term fall in U.S. bond yields shows that the selling momentum of U.S. bonds has temporarily eased. So, what exactly did the Fed's meeting statement and Powell say?In fact, the Federal Reserve has not taken any new policy actions. Whether it is near-zero interest rates or the current monthly QE bond purchase scale, there has been no change compared with the decision at the last meeting in January this year.In the recent economic outlook, the Federal Reserve has raised its economic forecasts, especially this year's GDP growth forecast, and also raised its core inflation forecast within three years, which is equivalent to admitting that it is more optimistic about the recovery of the U.S. economy in the past two years and expects inflation to be faster. However, the Fed has not expressed its willingness to start reducing QE in the near future, and reiterated that it will still maintain the current scale of bond purchases until the economy makes further substantial progress. Powell also made it clear that there is no need to react to the recent rise in U.S. bond yields.In terms of introducing the economic situation, the statement of this meeting continued to reiterate that COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant economic difficulties to the United States and the world, and said that \"after (the economy) recovered at a moderate pace, indicators of economic activity and employment have recently picked up, but the impact of the epidemic Some of the most negative industries are still weak,\" while the January statement said: \"The pace of economic activity and employment recovery in recent months has been moderate, with weakness concentrated in the industries most negatively affected by the epidemic.\"In terms of COVID-19 pandemic, like the January statement, this statement alsoReaffirm，“Some economies will rely heavily on the development of the epidemic situation\", and added\"Including progress of vaccination”。 The statement still believes that the public health crisis brought about by COVID-19 pandemic \"continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, and poses a significant risk to the economic outlook.\"<h2>Once again reiterate that there is no need to overreact to U.S. bond yields to maintain bond purchases and will soon officially announce the SLR decision</h2>The post-meeting statement once again reiterated the bond purchase guidance after the last meeting in December last year, that is, the Fed \"will increase its holdings of U.S. bonds and purchase at least $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities every month (MBS),Until substantial further progress has been made towards achieving the goals of full employment and price stability of the (Monetary Policy) Committee。”There is no wording in the statement that may change the above-mentioned bond purchase guidance in the future, nor does it mention the SLR loosening policy, which is the full name of bank supplementary leverage ratio.Before the announcement of the meeting resolution, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. bonds rose sharply in early trading on Wednesday, hitting a new high in more than a year. The commentary said that this shows that the market is nervous about the Fed's decision. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will give clues about the prospect of actually starting to take action in June, such as whether it will take measures to avoid the Taper Tantrum that occurred when Bernanke was Fed chairman, and whether it will resume selling short-term U.S. bonds. Operation Twist, which simultaneously buys long-term U.S. bonds.At the press conference after the meeting, Powell pointed out that it is important that financial conditions continue to remain loose when talking about the significant surge in U.S. bond yields in the past month.Overall, current financial conditions remain highly accommodative, so there is \"no need to react to the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields over the past month.\"。Powell said that the current QE bond purchase policy is appropriate, and it is not the time to start discussing reducing bond purchases. If the Fed may consider reducing QE, it will give a long notice in advance. The Fed will remain patient in maintaining accommodative policy until it completes its duties:\"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment goals before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet.\" However, he also reiterated his view earlier this month that he would be concerned if market conditions were chaotic or if continued tightening of financial conditions threatened the Fed's dual goals of employment and inflation.The analysis pointed out that the market had previously speculated whether the Federal Reserve would take action on higher U.S. bond yields, such as suggesting that this situation was triggering an unwelcome tightening of financial conditions, which may be a precursor to the Fed's intervention. But on Wednesday, Powell apparently didn't promise so much.Regarding the question of whether the SLR exemption will be extended after it expires on March 31, which has been widely concerned by the market, Powell said in the question and answer session that he will not answer it now and will make an official announcement soon, \"In the next few days, we will announce the latest notice around SLR.\"SLR is a capital adequacy ratio indicator of commercial banks. After the financial crisis in 2007-09, in order to prevent risks in the banking system, the United States revised the relevant regulations of SLR to restrict the additional leverage of big American banks. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic last year, the Federal Reserve stepped up monetary easing, and bank reserves included in the SLR calculation rose sharply. In order to promote the operation of the financial system and economic recovery, the Federal Reserve and other regulatory authorities decided to relax the SLR policy and exclude reserves and Treasury Bond. Outside the SLR indicator, it is convenient for depository institutions to buy U.S. debt. This relaxation policy is scheduled to expire on the 31st of this month.Changes to the SLR rules could cause large Wall Street banks to cut their securities holdings and lending. If this policy cannot be extended, it may trigger the market to sell assets. Last week, data from the New York Fed showed that in the week ending March 3, the U.S. Treasury Bond holdings of first-tier brokers decreased by $64.7 billion, the highest weekly decline. Since then, it has been commented that it is precisely because it is even more uncertain whether the loosening of SLR can be postponed that brokers have aggressively sold U.S. debt.At present, the market has very high expectations for the Fed's early statement. Considering the potential consequences of non-exemption,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Recently, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely extend the SLR exemption, believing that both reserve and Treasury Bond exemptions will be extended.<h2>Rate hike officials are expected to increase in 2023, but most still do not expect rate hike's real inflation to continue to exceed 2% before it is possible to bid farewell to QE</h2>This statementKeep reiteratingThe forward guidance on interest rates released last September said that the FOMC's \"committee'sThe goal will be to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for a period of time, so that the average inflation over time can reach 2%, and long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%.In terms of inflation and financial environment, this statement deleted \"weaker demand and sharp drops in oil prices have lowered CPI inflation\" reiterated in the January statement, added the statement \"inflation continues to be below 2%\", and retained \"the overall financial environment The improvement partly reflects the rhetoric that policy measures support the economy and American families and individuals get credit.\"The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in December last year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year.Different from the last dot plot, this time, 4 people are expected to be in rate hike in 2022, one more than last time; This timeOf 18Seven people expect a rate hike in 2023, accounting for nearly 40%, 2 more than the last expected rate hike in 2023, and 6 out of 7 people expect the interest rate to exceed 0.5% by then.(If one rate hike is 25 basis points, it may be at least two rate hike on the current basis). As last time, longer beyond 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, above the Fed's long-term target of 2%.<img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/b15a7cc1-8168-44a2-806a-429ba9803d9c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that most FOMC members of the Monetary Policy Committee did not expect a rate hike in 2023.When talking about the topic of inflation that the market is concerned about,Powell pointed out that the Fed is referring to the actual inflation rate and needs to see that the actual inflation \"substantially and consistently exceeds the 2% target\" rather than \"expected to exceed 2%\" before starting tightening policy。Powell said that the current QE bond purchases are appropriate and it is not yet time to discuss tapering bond purchases. \"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment targets before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we send the signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet yet.\"<h2>Raised GDP growth forecast within two years and PCE inflation forecast within three years, lowered unemployment forecast</h2>The updated economic outlook data released after the meeting showed that the Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecast for this year and next, lowered its growth forecast for 2023, lowered its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and the next three years, and raised its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) inflation rate for the next three years and core PCE inflation expectations excluding food and energy.According to the analysis, although the Federal Reserve has raised its nominal PCE and core PCE forecasts to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively for this year, both are expected to drop again to 2% next year, representing short-lived inflationary pressures.The median expected by Fed officials is:<ul><li>GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% and 3.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, which are 2.3 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the last expected growth rate announced in December last year. The expected GDP growth rate in 2023 has dropped from the last 2.4% to 2.2%.%.</li><li>The unemployment rate in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is expected to be 4.5%, 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively, down 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.</li><li>PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.4%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.6, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li><li>Core PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.2%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.4, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li></ul><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ab19f2f8-b8b7-4b99-87d1-968dfcf203d8.jpg\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-03-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nJudging from the market reaction, the Federal Reserve played the savior on Wednesday.After the Federal Reserve announced the resolution of this week's monetary policy meeting, during Fed President Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose with their heads held high, and the Nasdaq even smoothed out the decline of more than 1% in early trading. The short-term fall in U.S. bond yields shows that the selling momentum of U.S. bonds has temporarily eased. So, what exactly did the Fed's meeting statement and Powell say?In fact, the Federal Reserve has not taken any new policy actions. Whether it is near-zero interest rates or the current monthly QE bond purchase scale, there has been no change compared with the decision at the last meeting in January this year.In the recent economic outlook, the Federal Reserve has raised its economic forecasts, especially this year's GDP growth forecast, and also raised its core inflation forecast within three years, which is equivalent to admitting that it is more optimistic about the recovery of the U.S. economy in the past two years and expects inflation to be faster. However, the Fed has not expressed its willingness to start reducing QE in the near future, and reiterated that it will still maintain the current scale of bond purchases until the economy makes further substantial progress. Powell also made it clear that there is no need to react to the recent rise in U.S. bond yields.In terms of introducing the economic situation, the statement of this meeting continued to reiterate that COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant economic difficulties to the United States and the world, and said that \"after (the economy) recovered at a moderate pace, indicators of economic activity and employment have recently picked up, but the impact of the epidemic Some of the most negative industries are still weak,\" while the January statement said: \"The pace of economic activity and employment recovery in recent months has been moderate, with weakness concentrated in the industries most negatively affected by the epidemic.\"In terms of COVID-19 pandemic, like the January statement, this statement alsoReaffirm，“Some economies will rely heavily on the development of the epidemic situation\", and added\"Including progress of vaccination”。 The statement still believes that the public health crisis brought about by COVID-19 pandemic \"continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, and poses a significant risk to the economic outlook.\"<h2>Once again reiterate that there is no need to overreact to U.S. bond yields to maintain bond purchases and will soon officially announce the SLR decision</h2>The post-meeting statement once again reiterated the bond purchase guidance after the last meeting in December last year, that is, the Fed \"will increase its holdings of U.S. bonds and purchase at least $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities every month (MBS),Until substantial further progress has been made towards achieving the goals of full employment and price stability of the (Monetary Policy) Committee。”There is no wording in the statement that may change the above-mentioned bond purchase guidance in the future, nor does it mention the SLR loosening policy, which is the full name of bank supplementary leverage ratio.Before the announcement of the meeting resolution, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. bonds rose sharply in early trading on Wednesday, hitting a new high in more than a year. The commentary said that this shows that the market is nervous about the Fed's decision. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will give clues about the prospect of actually starting to take action in June, such as whether it will take measures to avoid the Taper Tantrum that occurred when Bernanke was Fed chairman, and whether it will resume selling short-term U.S. bonds. Operation Twist, which simultaneously buys long-term U.S. bonds.At the press conference after the meeting, Powell pointed out that it is important that financial conditions continue to remain loose when talking about the significant surge in U.S. bond yields in the past month.Overall, current financial conditions remain highly accommodative, so there is \"no need to react to the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields over the past month.\"。Powell said that the current QE bond purchase policy is appropriate, and it is not the time to start discussing reducing bond purchases. If the Fed may consider reducing QE, it will give a long notice in advance. The Fed will remain patient in maintaining accommodative policy until it completes its duties:\"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment goals before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet.\" However, he also reiterated his view earlier this month that he would be concerned if market conditions were chaotic or if continued tightening of financial conditions threatened the Fed's dual goals of employment and inflation.The analysis pointed out that the market had previously speculated whether the Federal Reserve would take action on higher U.S. bond yields, such as suggesting that this situation was triggering an unwelcome tightening of financial conditions, which may be a precursor to the Fed's intervention. But on Wednesday, Powell apparently didn't promise so much.Regarding the question of whether the SLR exemption will be extended after it expires on March 31, which has been widely concerned by the market, Powell said in the question and answer session that he will not answer it now and will make an official announcement soon, \"In the next few days, we will announce the latest notice around SLR.\"SLR is a capital adequacy ratio indicator of commercial banks. After the financial crisis in 2007-09, in order to prevent risks in the banking system, the United States revised the relevant regulations of SLR to restrict the additional leverage of big American banks. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic last year, the Federal Reserve stepped up monetary easing, and bank reserves included in the SLR calculation rose sharply. In order to promote the operation of the financial system and economic recovery, the Federal Reserve and other regulatory authorities decided to relax the SLR policy and exclude reserves and Treasury Bond. Outside the SLR indicator, it is convenient for depository institutions to buy U.S. debt. This relaxation policy is scheduled to expire on the 31st of this month.Changes to the SLR rules could cause large Wall Street banks to cut their securities holdings and lending. If this policy cannot be extended, it may trigger the market to sell assets. Last week, data from the New York Fed showed that in the week ending March 3, the U.S. Treasury Bond holdings of first-tier brokers decreased by $64.7 billion, the highest weekly decline. Since then, it has been commented that it is precisely because it is even more uncertain whether the loosening of SLR can be postponed that brokers have aggressively sold U.S. debt.At present, the market has very high expectations for the Fed's early statement. Considering the potential consequences of non-exemption,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Recently, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely extend the SLR exemption, believing that both reserve and Treasury Bond exemptions will be extended.<h2>Rate hike officials are expected to increase in 2023, but most still do not expect rate hike's real inflation to continue to exceed 2% before it is possible to bid farewell to QE</h2>This statementKeep reiteratingThe forward guidance on interest rates released last September said that the FOMC's \"committee'sThe goal will be to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for a period of time, so that the average inflation over time can reach 2%, and long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%.In terms of inflation and financial environment, this statement deleted \"weaker demand and sharp drops in oil prices have lowered CPI inflation\" reiterated in the January statement, added the statement \"inflation continues to be below 2%\", and retained \"the overall financial environment The improvement partly reflects the rhetoric that policy measures support the economy and American families and individuals get credit.\"The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in December last year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year.Different from the last dot plot, this time, 4 people are expected to be in rate hike in 2022, one more than last time; This timeOf 18Seven people expect a rate hike in 2023, accounting for nearly 40%, 2 more than the last expected rate hike in 2023, and 6 out of 7 people expect the interest rate to exceed 0.5% by then.(If one rate hike is 25 basis points, it may be at least two rate hike on the current basis). As last time, longer beyond 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, above the Fed's long-term target of 2%.<img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/b15a7cc1-8168-44a2-806a-429ba9803d9c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that most FOMC members of the Monetary Policy Committee did not expect a rate hike in 2023.When talking about the topic of inflation that the market is concerned about,Powell pointed out that the Fed is referring to the actual inflation rate and needs to see that the actual inflation \"substantially and consistently exceeds the 2% target\" rather than \"expected to exceed 2%\" before starting tightening policy。Powell said that the current QE bond purchases are appropriate and it is not yet time to discuss tapering bond purchases. \"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment targets before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we send the signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet yet.\"<h2>Raised GDP growth forecast within two years and PCE inflation forecast within three years, lowered unemployment forecast</h2>The updated economic outlook data released after the meeting showed that the Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecast for this year and next, lowered its growth forecast for 2023, lowered its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and the next three years, and raised its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) inflation rate for the next three years and core PCE inflation expectations excluding food and energy.According to the analysis, although the Federal Reserve has raised its nominal PCE and core PCE forecasts to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively for this year, both are expected to drop again to 2% next year, representing short-lived inflationary pressures.The median expected by Fed officials is:<ul><li>GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% and 3.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, which are 2.3 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the last expected growth rate announced in December last year. The expected GDP growth rate in 2023 has dropped from the last 2.4% to 2.2%.%.</li><li>The unemployment rate in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is expected to be 4.5%, 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively, down 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.</li><li>PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.4%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.6, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li><li>Core PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.2%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.4, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li></ul><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ab19f2f8-b8b7-4b99-87d1-968dfcf203d8.jpg\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de","relate_stocks":{"TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120213935","content_text":"从市场反应看，美联储本周三扮演了救世主。在美联储公布本周货币政策会议的决议后，联储主席鲍威尔讲话期间，美国三大股指昂首上扬，纳指更是抹平早盘1%以上的跌幅，携手标普转涨，创一年多新高的长期美债收益率短线回落，显示美债抛售势头暂时缓和。那么，美联储的会议声明和鲍威尔究竟说了什么？事实上，美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，不管是近零利率还是当前的每月QE购债规模，和今年1月的上次会议决策相比，都没有任何变化。在最近的经济展望中，美联储倒是上调了经济预期，尤其是今年的GDP增速预期，也上调了三年内的核心通胀预期，等于承认了更看好近两年美国经济复苏，预计通胀会更快回升，但联储根本没有表露近期要开始缩减QE的意愿，并且重申仍要保持当前购债的规模，直到经济有进一步的实质性进展。鲍威尔还明确表示，无需对近期美债收益率上升做任何反应。在介绍经济情况方面，本次会议声明继续重申，新冠疫情对美国及全球造成重大的经济困难，并称“在（经济）以温和步伐复苏后，经济活动和就业的指标最近已经回升，但疫情影响最为负面的一些行业仍疲软”，而今年1月的声明所说的是：“近几个月经济活动和就业复苏的步伐温和，疲软集中在最受疫情负面影响的行业。”在新冠疫情方面，和1月声明一样，本次声明也重申，“部分经济将严重依赖疫情发展形势”，并加上了“包括接种的进展”。本次声明依然认为，新冠疫情带来的公共卫生危机“继续施压经济活动、就业和通胀，并对经济前景构成重大风险。”再次重申保持购债 无需对美债收益率过度反应 即将官宣SLR决策本次会后声明再次重申去年12月上上次会后的购债指引，即联储“将增加所持的美国债券，至少每月购买800亿美元美国国债和400亿美元机构住房抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），直到对实现（货币政策）委员会的充分就业和价格稳定目标取得实质性的进一步进展为止。”声明中并没有任何未来可能改变上述购债指引的措辞，也没有提及全称银行补充杠杆率（supplementary leverage ratio）的SLR松绑政策。此次会议决议公布前，本周三当天，10年和30年期美债的收益率在美股早盘大幅攀升，创一年多来新高。评论称，这显示市场对美联储的决议感到紧张。市场关心美联储是否会就6月真正开始采取行动的前景给出线索，比如是否会采取措施避免伯南克任美联储主席时出现的缩减QE恐慌（Taper Tantrum），是否会重新起用卖出短期美债同时买入长期美债的扭转操作（Operation Twist）。在会后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔谈到过去一个月美债收益率显著蹿升时指出，重要的是金融状况继续保持宽松，总体而言，当前金融状况仍然高度宽松，因此“无需对过去一个月的美债收益率大幅上涨作反应”。鲍威尔表示，目前的QE购债政策是合适的，还不是开始讨论缩减债券购买力度的时机，如果美联储可能考虑缩减QE，将提前很久给出通知。美联储将对维持宽松政策保持耐心，直至完成职责：“美联储在考虑缩表之前，需要在实现2%的长期通胀和最大化就业目标方面看到实质性的进一步进展。在我们发出考虑缩表的信号之前，你可以假设我们还没到缩表的时候。”不过，他也重申本月早些时候的观点，即如果市场状况混乱，或是金融状况持续收紧威胁到美联储实现就业和通胀的双重目标，他会感到担忧。分析指出，之前市场猜测美联储是否会对美债收益率走高采取行动，例如暗示这种情况正在引发不受欢迎的金融状况收紧，这可能是美联储介入的前兆。但本周三鲍威尔显然没有如此承诺。对于市场广泛关注的SLR 豁免在3月31日到期后是否延续的问题，鲍威尔在问答环节表示，现在先不回答，马上要作正式宣布，“未来数日，我们将围绕SLR宣布最新通知。”SLR是一种商业银行的资本充足率指标。2007-09年金融危机后，为防范银行系统风险，美国重新修改SLR的相关规定，对美国大银行额外杠杆加以限制。去年新冠疫情爆发后，美联储加码货币宽松，被列入SLR计算的银行准备金大幅上升，为促进金融系统运作和经济复苏，美联储等监管部门决定放松SLR政策，将准备金及国债排除在SLR指标之外，便于存款机构买美债，这种放宽政策定于本月31日到期。SLR规定的改变可能会导致华尔街大型银行削减证券持仓和放贷。如果这一政策不能延长期限，可能引发市场抛售资产。上周纽约联储数据显示，截至3月3日一周，一级经纪商的美国国债持仓减少647亿美元，创单周最高降幅。此后评论称，正是因为更不确定松绑SLR能否延期，所以经纪商激进抛售美债。目前市场对于美联储的提前表态预期非常高。考虑到不豁免的潜在后果，摩根大通最近预计，美联储大概率将延长SLR豁免，认为准备金及国债的豁免都将延长。预计2023年加息官员增加但多数仍预期不加息 实际通胀持续超过2%才可能告别QE本次声明继续重申去年9月公布的利率前瞻指引，称FOMC“委员会的目标将是，在一段时间内实现通胀适度高于2%，以便让一段时间内的平均通胀达到2%，并且长期通胀预期仍很好地锚定在2%。在通胀和金融环境方面，本次声明删除了1月声明重申的“需求更疲软和油价大幅下跌拉低CPI通胀”，新增表述“通胀继续低于2%”，保留了“金融环境总体好转，部分反映出政策措施支持经济，美国家庭和个人得到信贷”的说辞。会后公布的点阵图显示，和去年12月上次发布的点阵图一样，所有美联储官员均预计今年利率保持不变，不同于上次点阵图的是，本次有4人预计2022年将加息，比上次多1人；本次18人中有7人预计2023年会加息，人数占比将近40%，比上次预期2023年加息者多2人，而且7人中有6人预计届时利率超过0.5%（若一次加息25个基点，即可能在当前基础上至少两次加息）。和上次一样，在2023年之后的更长时间内，多数联储官员预计利率会升至2.5%，高于联储长期目标2%。鲍威尔在会后的发布会上称，大多数货币政策委员会FOMC成员都没有预期2023年要加息。在谈到市场关注的通胀话题时，鲍威尔指出，美联储参考的是实际的通胀率，需要看到实际的通货膨胀“实质性且持续超过2%目标”，而不是“预期将超过2%”，而后才会开启紧缩政策。鲍威尔称，当前的QE购债是适合的，还没有到讨论缩减购债的时候。“美联储在考虑缩表之前，需要在实现2%的长期通胀和最大化就业目标方面看到实质性的进一步进展。在我们发出考虑缩表的信号之前，你可以假设我们还没到缩表的时候。”上调两年内GDP增速预期和三年内PCE通胀预期 下调失业率预期会后公布的更新后经济展望数据显示，美联储上调了今明两年的GDP增长预期，下调了2023年的增长预期，下调了今、明、后三年的失业率预期，上调了今、明、后三年的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）通胀率以及剔除食品与能源的核心PCE通胀预期。分析称，虽然美联储将今年的名义PCE和核心PCE预期分别上调至2.4%和2.2%，但预计都将在明年重新降至2%，代表通胀压力短暂。美联储官员预计的中位值为：2021年和2022年GDP分别预计增长6.5%和3.3%，分别较去年12月公布的上次预期增速上调2.3和0.1个百分点，2023年的GDP预期增速从上次的2.4%降至2.2%。2021年、2022年和2023年失业率预期分别为4.5%、3.9%和3.5%，较上次预期分别下调0.5、0.3和0.2个百分点。2021年、2022年和2023年PCE通胀预期分别为2.4%、2.0%和2.1%，较上次预期分别上调0.6、0.1和0.1个百分点。2021年、2022年和2023年核心PCE通胀预期分别为2.2%、2.0%和2.1%，较上次预期分别上调0.4、0.1和0.1个百分点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"BND":0.9,"TLT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":324715195,"gmtCreate":1616030654217,"gmtModify":1704789939133,"author":{"id":"3575152427021429","authorId":"3575152427021429","name":"oweng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78ba73c35834e0f9da0d306a62c079e3","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3575152427021429","idStr":"3575152427021429"},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324715195","repostId":2120213935,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2120213935","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616027359,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2120213935?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-18 08:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120213935","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，虽然上调了今明两年的GDP预期和三年内的核心通胀预期，但根本没有表露近期要开始缩减QE的意愿，并且重申仍要保持当前购债的规模，直到经济有进一步的实质性进展。鲍威尔还明确表示，无需对近期美债收益率上升做任何反应，要看到实际的通胀实质性且持续超过2%的目标，而不是预期将超过2%，然后才会收缩货币。","content":"Judging from the market reaction, the Federal Reserve played the savior on Wednesday.After the Federal Reserve announced the resolution of this week's monetary policy meeting, during Fed President Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose with their heads held high, and the Nasdaq even smoothed out the decline of more than 1% in early trading. The short-term fall in U.S. bond yields shows that the selling momentum of U.S. bonds has temporarily eased. So, what exactly did the Fed's meeting statement and Powell say?In fact, the Federal Reserve has not taken any new policy actions. Whether it is near-zero interest rates or the current monthly QE bond purchase scale, there has been no change compared with the decision at the last meeting in January this year.In the recent economic outlook, the Federal Reserve has raised its economic forecasts, especially this year's GDP growth forecast, and also raised its core inflation forecast within three years, which is equivalent to admitting that it is more optimistic about the recovery of the U.S. economy in the past two years and expects inflation to be faster. However, the Fed has not expressed its willingness to start reducing QE in the near future, and reiterated that it will still maintain the current scale of bond purchases until the economy makes further substantial progress. Powell also made it clear that there is no need to react to the recent rise in U.S. bond yields.In terms of introducing the economic situation, the statement of this meeting continued to reiterate that COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant economic difficulties to the United States and the world, and said that \"after (the economy) recovered at a moderate pace, indicators of economic activity and employment have recently picked up, but the impact of the epidemic Some of the most negative industries are still weak,\" while the January statement said: \"The pace of economic activity and employment recovery in recent months has been moderate, with weakness concentrated in the industries most negatively affected by the epidemic.\"In terms of COVID-19 pandemic, like the January statement, this statement alsoReaffirm，“Some economies will rely heavily on the development of the epidemic situation\", and added\"Including progress of vaccination”。 The statement still believes that the public health crisis brought about by COVID-19 pandemic \"continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, and poses a significant risk to the economic outlook.\"<h2>Once again reiterate that there is no need to overreact to U.S. bond yields to maintain bond purchases and will soon officially announce the SLR decision</h2>The post-meeting statement once again reiterated the bond purchase guidance after the last meeting in December last year, that is, the Fed \"will increase its holdings of U.S. bonds and purchase at least $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities every month (MBS),Until substantial further progress has been made towards achieving the goals of full employment and price stability of the (Monetary Policy) Committee。”There is no wording in the statement that may change the above-mentioned bond purchase guidance in the future, nor does it mention the SLR loosening policy, which is the full name of bank supplementary leverage ratio.Before the announcement of the meeting resolution, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. bonds rose sharply in early trading on Wednesday, hitting a new high in more than a year. The commentary said that this shows that the market is nervous about the Fed's decision. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will give clues about the prospect of actually starting to take action in June, such as whether it will take measures to avoid the Taper Tantrum that occurred when Bernanke was Fed chairman, and whether it will resume selling short-term U.S. bonds. Operation Twist, which simultaneously buys long-term U.S. bonds.At the press conference after the meeting, Powell pointed out that it is important that financial conditions continue to remain loose when talking about the significant surge in U.S. bond yields in the past month.Overall, current financial conditions remain highly accommodative, so there is \"no need to react to the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields over the past month.\"。Powell said that the current QE bond purchase policy is appropriate, and it is not the time to start discussing reducing bond purchases. If the Fed may consider reducing QE, it will give a long notice in advance. The Fed will remain patient in maintaining accommodative policy until it completes its duties:\"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment goals before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet.\" However, he also reiterated his view earlier this month that he would be concerned if market conditions were chaotic or if continued tightening of financial conditions threatened the Fed's dual goals of employment and inflation.The analysis pointed out that the market had previously speculated whether the Federal Reserve would take action on higher U.S. bond yields, such as suggesting that this situation was triggering an unwelcome tightening of financial conditions, which may be a precursor to the Fed's intervention. But on Wednesday, Powell apparently didn't promise so much.Regarding the question of whether the SLR exemption will be extended after it expires on March 31, which has been widely concerned by the market, Powell said in the question and answer session that he will not answer it now and will make an official announcement soon, \"In the next few days, we will announce the latest notice around SLR.\"SLR is a capital adequacy ratio indicator of commercial banks. After the financial crisis in 2007-09, in order to prevent risks in the banking system, the United States revised the relevant regulations of SLR to restrict the additional leverage of big American banks. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic last year, the Federal Reserve stepped up monetary easing, and bank reserves included in the SLR calculation rose sharply. In order to promote the operation of the financial system and economic recovery, the Federal Reserve and other regulatory authorities decided to relax the SLR policy and exclude reserves and Treasury Bond. Outside the SLR indicator, it is convenient for depository institutions to buy U.S. debt. This relaxation policy is scheduled to expire on the 31st of this month.Changes to the SLR rules could cause large Wall Street banks to cut their securities holdings and lending. If this policy cannot be extended, it may trigger the market to sell assets. Last week, data from the New York Fed showed that in the week ending March 3, the U.S. Treasury Bond holdings of first-tier brokers decreased by $64.7 billion, the highest weekly decline. Since then, it has been commented that it is precisely because it is even more uncertain whether the loosening of SLR can be postponed that brokers have aggressively sold U.S. debt.At present, the market has very high expectations for the Fed's early statement. Considering the potential consequences of non-exemption,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Recently, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely extend the SLR exemption, believing that both reserve and Treasury Bond exemptions will be extended.<h2>Rate hike officials are expected to increase in 2023, but most still do not expect rate hike's real inflation to continue to exceed 2% before it is possible to bid farewell to QE</h2>This statementKeep reiteratingThe forward guidance on interest rates released last September said that the FOMC's \"committee'sThe goal will be to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for a period of time, so that the average inflation over time can reach 2%, and long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%.In terms of inflation and financial environment, this statement deleted \"weaker demand and sharp drops in oil prices have lowered CPI inflation\" reiterated in the January statement, added the statement \"inflation continues to be below 2%\", and retained \"the overall financial environment The improvement partly reflects the rhetoric that policy measures support the economy and American families and individuals get credit.\"The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in December last year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year.Different from the last dot plot, this time, 4 people are expected to be in rate hike in 2022, one more than last time; This timeOf 18Seven people expect a rate hike in 2023, accounting for nearly 40%, 2 more than the last expected rate hike in 2023, and 6 out of 7 people expect the interest rate to exceed 0.5% by then.(If one rate hike is 25 basis points, it may be at least two rate hike on the current basis). As last time, longer beyond 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, above the Fed's long-term target of 2%.<img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/b15a7cc1-8168-44a2-806a-429ba9803d9c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that most FOMC members of the Monetary Policy Committee did not expect a rate hike in 2023.When talking about the topic of inflation that the market is concerned about,Powell pointed out that the Fed is referring to the actual inflation rate and needs to see that the actual inflation \"substantially and consistently exceeds the 2% target\" rather than \"expected to exceed 2%\" before starting tightening policy。Powell said that the current QE bond purchases are appropriate and it is not yet time to discuss tapering bond purchases. \"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment targets before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we send the signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet yet.\"<h2>Raised GDP growth forecast within two years and PCE inflation forecast within three years, lowered unemployment forecast</h2>The updated economic outlook data released after the meeting showed that the Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecast for this year and next, lowered its growth forecast for 2023, lowered its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and the next three years, and raised its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) inflation rate for the next three years and core PCE inflation expectations excluding food and energy.According to the analysis, although the Federal Reserve has raised its nominal PCE and core PCE forecasts to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively for this year, both are expected to drop again to 2% next year, representing short-lived inflationary pressures.The median expected by Fed officials is:<ul><li>GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% and 3.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, which are 2.3 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the last expected growth rate announced in December last year. The expected GDP growth rate in 2023 has dropped from the last 2.4% to 2.2%.%.</li><li>The unemployment rate in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is expected to be 4.5%, 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively, down 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.</li><li>PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.4%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.6, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li><li>Core PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.2%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.4, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li></ul><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ab19f2f8-b8b7-4b99-87d1-968dfcf203d8.jpg\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-03-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nJudging from the market reaction, the Federal Reserve played the savior on Wednesday.After the Federal Reserve announced the resolution of this week's monetary policy meeting, during Fed President Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose with their heads held high, and the Nasdaq even smoothed out the decline of more than 1% in early trading. The short-term fall in U.S. bond yields shows that the selling momentum of U.S. bonds has temporarily eased. So, what exactly did the Fed's meeting statement and Powell say?In fact, the Federal Reserve has not taken any new policy actions. Whether it is near-zero interest rates or the current monthly QE bond purchase scale, there has been no change compared with the decision at the last meeting in January this year.In the recent economic outlook, the Federal Reserve has raised its economic forecasts, especially this year's GDP growth forecast, and also raised its core inflation forecast within three years, which is equivalent to admitting that it is more optimistic about the recovery of the U.S. economy in the past two years and expects inflation to be faster. However, the Fed has not expressed its willingness to start reducing QE in the near future, and reiterated that it will still maintain the current scale of bond purchases until the economy makes further substantial progress. Powell also made it clear that there is no need to react to the recent rise in U.S. bond yields.In terms of introducing the economic situation, the statement of this meeting continued to reiterate that COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant economic difficulties to the United States and the world, and said that \"after (the economy) recovered at a moderate pace, indicators of economic activity and employment have recently picked up, but the impact of the epidemic Some of the most negative industries are still weak,\" while the January statement said: \"The pace of economic activity and employment recovery in recent months has been moderate, with weakness concentrated in the industries most negatively affected by the epidemic.\"In terms of COVID-19 pandemic, like the January statement, this statement alsoReaffirm，“Some economies will rely heavily on the development of the epidemic situation\", and added\"Including progress of vaccination”。 The statement still believes that the public health crisis brought about by COVID-19 pandemic \"continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, and poses a significant risk to the economic outlook.\"<h2>Once again reiterate that there is no need to overreact to U.S. bond yields to maintain bond purchases and will soon officially announce the SLR decision</h2>The post-meeting statement once again reiterated the bond purchase guidance after the last meeting in December last year, that is, the Fed \"will increase its holdings of U.S. bonds and purchase at least $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities every month (MBS),Until substantial further progress has been made towards achieving the goals of full employment and price stability of the (Monetary Policy) Committee。”There is no wording in the statement that may change the above-mentioned bond purchase guidance in the future, nor does it mention the SLR loosening policy, which is the full name of bank supplementary leverage ratio.Before the announcement of the meeting resolution, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. bonds rose sharply in early trading on Wednesday, hitting a new high in more than a year. The commentary said that this shows that the market is nervous about the Fed's decision. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will give clues about the prospect of actually starting to take action in June, such as whether it will take measures to avoid the Taper Tantrum that occurred when Bernanke was Fed chairman, and whether it will resume selling short-term U.S. bonds. Operation Twist, which simultaneously buys long-term U.S. bonds.At the press conference after the meeting, Powell pointed out that it is important that financial conditions continue to remain loose when talking about the significant surge in U.S. bond yields in the past month.Overall, current financial conditions remain highly accommodative, so there is \"no need to react to the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields over the past month.\"。Powell said that the current QE bond purchase policy is appropriate, and it is not the time to start discussing reducing bond purchases. If the Fed may consider reducing QE, it will give a long notice in advance. The Fed will remain patient in maintaining accommodative policy until it completes its duties:\"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment goals before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet.\" However, he also reiterated his view earlier this month that he would be concerned if market conditions were chaotic or if continued tightening of financial conditions threatened the Fed's dual goals of employment and inflation.The analysis pointed out that the market had previously speculated whether the Federal Reserve would take action on higher U.S. bond yields, such as suggesting that this situation was triggering an unwelcome tightening of financial conditions, which may be a precursor to the Fed's intervention. But on Wednesday, Powell apparently didn't promise so much.Regarding the question of whether the SLR exemption will be extended after it expires on March 31, which has been widely concerned by the market, Powell said in the question and answer session that he will not answer it now and will make an official announcement soon, \"In the next few days, we will announce the latest notice around SLR.\"SLR is a capital adequacy ratio indicator of commercial banks. After the financial crisis in 2007-09, in order to prevent risks in the banking system, the United States revised the relevant regulations of SLR to restrict the additional leverage of big American banks. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic last year, the Federal Reserve stepped up monetary easing, and bank reserves included in the SLR calculation rose sharply. In order to promote the operation of the financial system and economic recovery, the Federal Reserve and other regulatory authorities decided to relax the SLR policy and exclude reserves and Treasury Bond. Outside the SLR indicator, it is convenient for depository institutions to buy U.S. debt. This relaxation policy is scheduled to expire on the 31st of this month.Changes to the SLR rules could cause large Wall Street banks to cut their securities holdings and lending. If this policy cannot be extended, it may trigger the market to sell assets. Last week, data from the New York Fed showed that in the week ending March 3, the U.S. Treasury Bond holdings of first-tier brokers decreased by $64.7 billion, the highest weekly decline. Since then, it has been commented that it is precisely because it is even more uncertain whether the loosening of SLR can be postponed that brokers have aggressively sold U.S. debt.At present, the market has very high expectations for the Fed's early statement. Considering the potential consequences of non-exemption,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Recently, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely extend the SLR exemption, believing that both reserve and Treasury Bond exemptions will be extended.<h2>Rate hike officials are expected to increase in 2023, but most still do not expect rate hike's real inflation to continue to exceed 2% before it is possible to bid farewell to QE</h2>This statementKeep reiteratingThe forward guidance on interest rates released last September said that the FOMC's \"committee'sThe goal will be to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for a period of time, so that the average inflation over time can reach 2%, and long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%.In terms of inflation and financial environment, this statement deleted \"weaker demand and sharp drops in oil prices have lowered CPI inflation\" reiterated in the January statement, added the statement \"inflation continues to be below 2%\", and retained \"the overall financial environment The improvement partly reflects the rhetoric that policy measures support the economy and American families and individuals get credit.\"The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in December last year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year.Different from the last dot plot, this time, 4 people are expected to be in rate hike in 2022, one more than last time; This timeOf 18Seven people expect a rate hike in 2023, accounting for nearly 40%, 2 more than the last expected rate hike in 2023, and 6 out of 7 people expect the interest rate to exceed 0.5% by then.(If one rate hike is 25 basis points, it may be at least two rate hike on the current basis). As last time, longer beyond 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, above the Fed's long-term target of 2%.<img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/b15a7cc1-8168-44a2-806a-429ba9803d9c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that most FOMC members of the Monetary Policy Committee did not expect a rate hike in 2023.When talking about the topic of inflation that the market is concerned about,Powell pointed out that the Fed is referring to the actual inflation rate and needs to see that the actual inflation \"substantially and consistently exceeds the 2% target\" rather than \"expected to exceed 2%\" before starting tightening policy。Powell said that the current QE bond purchases are appropriate and it is not yet time to discuss tapering bond purchases. \"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment targets before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we send the signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet yet.\"<h2>Raised GDP growth forecast within two years and PCE inflation forecast within three years, lowered unemployment forecast</h2>The updated economic outlook data released after the meeting showed that the Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecast for this year and next, lowered its growth forecast for 2023, lowered its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and the next three years, and raised its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) inflation rate for the next three years and core PCE inflation expectations excluding food and energy.According to the analysis, although the Federal Reserve has raised its nominal PCE and core PCE forecasts to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively for this year, both are expected to drop again to 2% next year, representing short-lived inflationary pressures.The median expected by Fed officials is:<ul><li>GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% and 3.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, which are 2.3 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the last expected growth rate announced in December last year. The expected GDP growth rate in 2023 has dropped from the last 2.4% to 2.2%.%.</li><li>The unemployment rate in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is expected to be 4.5%, 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively, down 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.</li><li>PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.4%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.6, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li><li>Core PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.2%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.4, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li></ul><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ab19f2f8-b8b7-4b99-87d1-968dfcf203d8.jpg\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de","relate_stocks":{"TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120213935","content_text":"从市场反应看，美联储本周三扮演了救世主。在美联储公布本周货币政策会议的决议后，联储主席鲍威尔讲话期间，美国三大股指昂首上扬，纳指更是抹平早盘1%以上的跌幅，携手标普转涨，创一年多新高的长期美债收益率短线回落，显示美债抛售势头暂时缓和。那么，美联储的会议声明和鲍威尔究竟说了什么？事实上，美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，不管是近零利率还是当前的每月QE购债规模，和今年1月的上次会议决策相比，都没有任何变化。在最近的经济展望中，美联储倒是上调了经济预期，尤其是今年的GDP增速预期，也上调了三年内的核心通胀预期，等于承认了更看好近两年美国经济复苏，预计通胀会更快回升，但联储根本没有表露近期要开始缩减QE的意愿，并且重申仍要保持当前购债的规模，直到经济有进一步的实质性进展。鲍威尔还明确表示，无需对近期美债收益率上升做任何反应。在介绍经济情况方面，本次会议声明继续重申，新冠疫情对美国及全球造成重大的经济困难，并称“在（经济）以温和步伐复苏后，经济活动和就业的指标最近已经回升，但疫情影响最为负面的一些行业仍疲软”，而今年1月的声明所说的是：“近几个月经济活动和就业复苏的步伐温和，疲软集中在最受疫情负面影响的行业。”在新冠疫情方面，和1月声明一样，本次声明也重申，“部分经济将严重依赖疫情发展形势”，并加上了“包括接种的进展”。本次声明依然认为，新冠疫情带来的公共卫生危机“继续施压经济活动、就业和通胀，并对经济前景构成重大风险。”再次重申保持购债 无需对美债收益率过度反应 即将官宣SLR决策本次会后声明再次重申去年12月上上次会后的购债指引，即联储“将增加所持的美国债券，至少每月购买800亿美元美国国债和400亿美元机构住房抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），直到对实现（货币政策）委员会的充分就业和价格稳定目标取得实质性的进一步进展为止。”声明中并没有任何未来可能改变上述购债指引的措辞，也没有提及全称银行补充杠杆率（supplementary leverage ratio）的SLR松绑政策。此次会议决议公布前，本周三当天，10年和30年期美债的收益率在美股早盘大幅攀升，创一年多来新高。评论称，这显示市场对美联储的决议感到紧张。市场关心美联储是否会就6月真正开始采取行动的前景给出线索，比如是否会采取措施避免伯南克任美联储主席时出现的缩减QE恐慌（Taper Tantrum），是否会重新起用卖出短期美债同时买入长期美债的扭转操作（Operation Twist）。在会后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔谈到过去一个月美债收益率显著蹿升时指出，重要的是金融状况继续保持宽松，总体而言，当前金融状况仍然高度宽松，因此“无需对过去一个月的美债收益率大幅上涨作反应”。鲍威尔表示，目前的QE购债政策是合适的，还不是开始讨论缩减债券购买力度的时机，如果美联储可能考虑缩减QE，将提前很久给出通知。美联储将对维持宽松政策保持耐心，直至完成职责：“美联储在考虑缩表之前，需要在实现2%的长期通胀和最大化就业目标方面看到实质性的进一步进展。在我们发出考虑缩表的信号之前，你可以假设我们还没到缩表的时候。”不过，他也重申本月早些时候的观点，即如果市场状况混乱，或是金融状况持续收紧威胁到美联储实现就业和通胀的双重目标，他会感到担忧。分析指出，之前市场猜测美联储是否会对美债收益率走高采取行动，例如暗示这种情况正在引发不受欢迎的金融状况收紧，这可能是美联储介入的前兆。但本周三鲍威尔显然没有如此承诺。对于市场广泛关注的SLR 豁免在3月31日到期后是否延续的问题，鲍威尔在问答环节表示，现在先不回答，马上要作正式宣布，“未来数日，我们将围绕SLR宣布最新通知。”SLR是一种商业银行的资本充足率指标。2007-09年金融危机后，为防范银行系统风险，美国重新修改SLR的相关规定，对美国大银行额外杠杆加以限制。去年新冠疫情爆发后，美联储加码货币宽松，被列入SLR计算的银行准备金大幅上升，为促进金融系统运作和经济复苏，美联储等监管部门决定放松SLR政策，将准备金及国债排除在SLR指标之外，便于存款机构买美债，这种放宽政策定于本月31日到期。SLR规定的改变可能会导致华尔街大型银行削减证券持仓和放贷。如果这一政策不能延长期限，可能引发市场抛售资产。上周纽约联储数据显示，截至3月3日一周，一级经纪商的美国国债持仓减少647亿美元，创单周最高降幅。此后评论称，正是因为更不确定松绑SLR能否延期，所以经纪商激进抛售美债。目前市场对于美联储的提前表态预期非常高。考虑到不豁免的潜在后果，摩根大通最近预计，美联储大概率将延长SLR豁免，认为准备金及国债的豁免都将延长。预计2023年加息官员增加但多数仍预期不加息 实际通胀持续超过2%才可能告别QE本次声明继续重申去年9月公布的利率前瞻指引，称FOMC“委员会的目标将是，在一段时间内实现通胀适度高于2%，以便让一段时间内的平均通胀达到2%，并且长期通胀预期仍很好地锚定在2%。在通胀和金融环境方面，本次声明删除了1月声明重申的“需求更疲软和油价大幅下跌拉低CPI通胀”，新增表述“通胀继续低于2%”，保留了“金融环境总体好转，部分反映出政策措施支持经济，美国家庭和个人得到信贷”的说辞。会后公布的点阵图显示，和去年12月上次发布的点阵图一样，所有美联储官员均预计今年利率保持不变，不同于上次点阵图的是，本次有4人预计2022年将加息，比上次多1人；本次18人中有7人预计2023年会加息，人数占比将近40%，比上次预期2023年加息者多2人，而且7人中有6人预计届时利率超过0.5%（若一次加息25个基点，即可能在当前基础上至少两次加息）。和上次一样，在2023年之后的更长时间内，多数联储官员预计利率会升至2.5%，高于联储长期目标2%。鲍威尔在会后的发布会上称，大多数货币政策委员会FOMC成员都没有预期2023年要加息。在谈到市场关注的通胀话题时，鲍威尔指出，美联储参考的是实际的通胀率，需要看到实际的通货膨胀“实质性且持续超过2%目标”，而不是“预期将超过2%”，而后才会开启紧缩政策。鲍威尔称，当前的QE购债是适合的，还没有到讨论缩减购债的时候。“美联储在考虑缩表之前，需要在实现2%的长期通胀和最大化就业目标方面看到实质性的进一步进展。在我们发出考虑缩表的信号之前，你可以假设我们还没到缩表的时候。”上调两年内GDP增速预期和三年内PCE通胀预期 下调失业率预期会后公布的更新后经济展望数据显示，美联储上调了今明两年的GDP增长预期，下调了2023年的增长预期，下调了今、明、后三年的失业率预期，上调了今、明、后三年的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）通胀率以及剔除食品与能源的核心PCE通胀预期。分析称，虽然美联储将今年的名义PCE和核心PCE预期分别上调至2.4%和2.2%，但预计都将在明年重新降至2%，代表通胀压力短暂。美联储官员预计的中位值为：2021年和2022年GDP分别预计增长6.5%和3.3%，分别较去年12月公布的上次预期增速上调2.3和0.1个百分点，2023年的GDP预期增速从上次的2.4%降至2.2%。2021年、2022年和2023年失业率预期分别为4.5%、3.9%和3.5%，较上次预期分别下调0.5、0.3和0.2个百分点。2021年、2022年和2023年PCE通胀预期分别为2.4%、2.0%和2.1%，较上次预期分别上调0.6、0.1和0.1个百分点。2021年、2022年和2023年核心PCE通胀预期分别为2.2%、2.0%和2.1%，较上次预期分别上调0.4、0.1和0.1个百分点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"BND":0.9,"TLT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":324730757,"gmtCreate":1616029687479,"gmtModify":1704789916094,"author":{"id":"3569581951650623","authorId":"3569581951650623","name":"赞我的今年账户翻十倍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1d63378f07d4231f465c7cd27356410","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569581951650623","idStr":"3569581951650623"},"htmlText":"1.9萬億不夠，必須更多","listText":"1.9萬億不夠，必須更多","text":"1.9萬億不夠，必須更多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324730757","repostId":2120213935,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2120213935","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616027359,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2120213935?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-18 08:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120213935","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，虽然上调了今明两年的GDP预期和三年内的核心通胀预期，但根本没有表露近期要开始缩减QE的意愿，并且重申仍要保持当前购债的规模，直到经济有进一步的实质性进展。鲍威尔还明确表示，无需对近期美债收益率上升做任何反应，要看到实际的通胀实质性且持续超过2%的目标，而不是预期将超过2%，然后才会收缩货币。","content":"Judging from the market reaction, the Federal Reserve played the savior on Wednesday.After the Federal Reserve announced the resolution of this week's monetary policy meeting, during Fed President Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose with their heads held high, and the Nasdaq even smoothed out the decline of more than 1% in early trading. The short-term fall in U.S. bond yields shows that the selling momentum of U.S. bonds has temporarily eased. So, what exactly did the Fed's meeting statement and Powell say?In fact, the Federal Reserve has not taken any new policy actions. Whether it is near-zero interest rates or the current monthly QE bond purchase scale, there has been no change compared with the decision at the last meeting in January this year.In the recent economic outlook, the Federal Reserve has raised its economic forecasts, especially this year's GDP growth forecast, and also raised its core inflation forecast within three years, which is equivalent to admitting that it is more optimistic about the recovery of the U.S. economy in the past two years and expects inflation to be faster. However, the Fed has not expressed its willingness to start reducing QE in the near future, and reiterated that it will still maintain the current scale of bond purchases until the economy makes further substantial progress. Powell also made it clear that there is no need to react to the recent rise in U.S. bond yields.In terms of introducing the economic situation, the statement of this meeting continued to reiterate that COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant economic difficulties to the United States and the world, and said that \"after (the economy) recovered at a moderate pace, indicators of economic activity and employment have recently picked up, but the impact of the epidemic Some of the most negative industries are still weak,\" while the January statement said: \"The pace of economic activity and employment recovery in recent months has been moderate, with weakness concentrated in the industries most negatively affected by the epidemic.\"In terms of COVID-19 pandemic, like the January statement, this statement alsoReaffirm，“Some economies will rely heavily on the development of the epidemic situation\", and added\"Including progress of vaccination”。 The statement still believes that the public health crisis brought about by COVID-19 pandemic \"continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, and poses a significant risk to the economic outlook.\"<h2>Once again reiterate that there is no need to overreact to U.S. bond yields to maintain bond purchases and will soon officially announce the SLR decision</h2>The post-meeting statement once again reiterated the bond purchase guidance after the last meeting in December last year, that is, the Fed \"will increase its holdings of U.S. bonds and purchase at least $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities every month (MBS),Until substantial further progress has been made towards achieving the goals of full employment and price stability of the (Monetary Policy) Committee。”There is no wording in the statement that may change the above-mentioned bond purchase guidance in the future, nor does it mention the SLR loosening policy, which is the full name of bank supplementary leverage ratio.Before the announcement of the meeting resolution, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. bonds rose sharply in early trading on Wednesday, hitting a new high in more than a year. The commentary said that this shows that the market is nervous about the Fed's decision. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will give clues about the prospect of actually starting to take action in June, such as whether it will take measures to avoid the Taper Tantrum that occurred when Bernanke was Fed chairman, and whether it will resume selling short-term U.S. bonds. Operation Twist, which simultaneously buys long-term U.S. bonds.At the press conference after the meeting, Powell pointed out that it is important that financial conditions continue to remain loose when talking about the significant surge in U.S. bond yields in the past month.Overall, current financial conditions remain highly accommodative, so there is \"no need to react to the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields over the past month.\"。Powell said that the current QE bond purchase policy is appropriate, and it is not the time to start discussing reducing bond purchases. If the Fed may consider reducing QE, it will give a long notice in advance. The Fed will remain patient in maintaining accommodative policy until it completes its duties:\"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment goals before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet.\" However, he also reiterated his view earlier this month that he would be concerned if market conditions were chaotic or if continued tightening of financial conditions threatened the Fed's dual goals of employment and inflation.The analysis pointed out that the market had previously speculated whether the Federal Reserve would take action on higher U.S. bond yields, such as suggesting that this situation was triggering an unwelcome tightening of financial conditions, which may be a precursor to the Fed's intervention. But on Wednesday, Powell apparently didn't promise so much.Regarding the question of whether the SLR exemption will be extended after it expires on March 31, which has been widely concerned by the market, Powell said in the question and answer session that he will not answer it now and will make an official announcement soon, \"In the next few days, we will announce the latest notice around SLR.\"SLR is a capital adequacy ratio indicator of commercial banks. After the financial crisis in 2007-09, in order to prevent risks in the banking system, the United States revised the relevant regulations of SLR to restrict the additional leverage of big American banks. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic last year, the Federal Reserve stepped up monetary easing, and bank reserves included in the SLR calculation rose sharply. In order to promote the operation of the financial system and economic recovery, the Federal Reserve and other regulatory authorities decided to relax the SLR policy and exclude reserves and Treasury Bond. Outside the SLR indicator, it is convenient for depository institutions to buy U.S. debt. This relaxation policy is scheduled to expire on the 31st of this month.Changes to the SLR rules could cause large Wall Street banks to cut their securities holdings and lending. If this policy cannot be extended, it may trigger the market to sell assets. Last week, data from the New York Fed showed that in the week ending March 3, the U.S. Treasury Bond holdings of first-tier brokers decreased by $64.7 billion, the highest weekly decline. Since then, it has been commented that it is precisely because it is even more uncertain whether the loosening of SLR can be postponed that brokers have aggressively sold U.S. debt.At present, the market has very high expectations for the Fed's early statement. Considering the potential consequences of non-exemption,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Recently, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely extend the SLR exemption, believing that both reserve and Treasury Bond exemptions will be extended.<h2>Rate hike officials are expected to increase in 2023, but most still do not expect rate hike's real inflation to continue to exceed 2% before it is possible to bid farewell to QE</h2>This statementKeep reiteratingThe forward guidance on interest rates released last September said that the FOMC's \"committee'sThe goal will be to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for a period of time, so that the average inflation over time can reach 2%, and long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%.In terms of inflation and financial environment, this statement deleted \"weaker demand and sharp drops in oil prices have lowered CPI inflation\" reiterated in the January statement, added the statement \"inflation continues to be below 2%\", and retained \"the overall financial environment The improvement partly reflects the rhetoric that policy measures support the economy and American families and individuals get credit.\"The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in December last year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year.Different from the last dot plot, this time, 4 people are expected to be in rate hike in 2022, one more than last time; This timeOf 18Seven people expect a rate hike in 2023, accounting for nearly 40%, 2 more than the last expected rate hike in 2023, and 6 out of 7 people expect the interest rate to exceed 0.5% by then.(If one rate hike is 25 basis points, it may be at least two rate hike on the current basis). As last time, longer beyond 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, above the Fed's long-term target of 2%.<img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/b15a7cc1-8168-44a2-806a-429ba9803d9c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that most FOMC members of the Monetary Policy Committee did not expect a rate hike in 2023.When talking about the topic of inflation that the market is concerned about,Powell pointed out that the Fed is referring to the actual inflation rate and needs to see that the actual inflation \"substantially and consistently exceeds the 2% target\" rather than \"expected to exceed 2%\" before starting tightening policy。Powell said that the current QE bond purchases are appropriate and it is not yet time to discuss tapering bond purchases. \"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment targets before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we send the signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet yet.\"<h2>Raised GDP growth forecast within two years and PCE inflation forecast within three years, lowered unemployment forecast</h2>The updated economic outlook data released after the meeting showed that the Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecast for this year and next, lowered its growth forecast for 2023, lowered its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and the next three years, and raised its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) inflation rate for the next three years and core PCE inflation expectations excluding food and energy.According to the analysis, although the Federal Reserve has raised its nominal PCE and core PCE forecasts to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively for this year, both are expected to drop again to 2% next year, representing short-lived inflationary pressures.The median expected by Fed officials is:<ul><li>GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% and 3.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, which are 2.3 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the last expected growth rate announced in December last year. The expected GDP growth rate in 2023 has dropped from the last 2.4% to 2.2%.%.</li><li>The unemployment rate in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is expected to be 4.5%, 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively, down 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.</li><li>PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.4%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.6, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li><li>Core PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.2%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.4, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li></ul><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ab19f2f8-b8b7-4b99-87d1-968dfcf203d8.jpg\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-03-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nJudging from the market reaction, the Federal Reserve played the savior on Wednesday.After the Federal Reserve announced the resolution of this week's monetary policy meeting, during Fed President Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose with their heads held high, and the Nasdaq even smoothed out the decline of more than 1% in early trading. The short-term fall in U.S. bond yields shows that the selling momentum of U.S. bonds has temporarily eased. So, what exactly did the Fed's meeting statement and Powell say?In fact, the Federal Reserve has not taken any new policy actions. Whether it is near-zero interest rates or the current monthly QE bond purchase scale, there has been no change compared with the decision at the last meeting in January this year.In the recent economic outlook, the Federal Reserve has raised its economic forecasts, especially this year's GDP growth forecast, and also raised its core inflation forecast within three years, which is equivalent to admitting that it is more optimistic about the recovery of the U.S. economy in the past two years and expects inflation to be faster. However, the Fed has not expressed its willingness to start reducing QE in the near future, and reiterated that it will still maintain the current scale of bond purchases until the economy makes further substantial progress. Powell also made it clear that there is no need to react to the recent rise in U.S. bond yields.In terms of introducing the economic situation, the statement of this meeting continued to reiterate that COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant economic difficulties to the United States and the world, and said that \"after (the economy) recovered at a moderate pace, indicators of economic activity and employment have recently picked up, but the impact of the epidemic Some of the most negative industries are still weak,\" while the January statement said: \"The pace of economic activity and employment recovery in recent months has been moderate, with weakness concentrated in the industries most negatively affected by the epidemic.\"In terms of COVID-19 pandemic, like the January statement, this statement alsoReaffirm，“Some economies will rely heavily on the development of the epidemic situation\", and added\"Including progress of vaccination”。 The statement still believes that the public health crisis brought about by COVID-19 pandemic \"continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, and poses a significant risk to the economic outlook.\"<h2>Once again reiterate that there is no need to overreact to U.S. bond yields to maintain bond purchases and will soon officially announce the SLR decision</h2>The post-meeting statement once again reiterated the bond purchase guidance after the last meeting in December last year, that is, the Fed \"will increase its holdings of U.S. bonds and purchase at least $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities every month (MBS),Until substantial further progress has been made towards achieving the goals of full employment and price stability of the (Monetary Policy) Committee。”There is no wording in the statement that may change the above-mentioned bond purchase guidance in the future, nor does it mention the SLR loosening policy, which is the full name of bank supplementary leverage ratio.Before the announcement of the meeting resolution, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. bonds rose sharply in early trading on Wednesday, hitting a new high in more than a year. The commentary said that this shows that the market is nervous about the Fed's decision. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will give clues about the prospect of actually starting to take action in June, such as whether it will take measures to avoid the Taper Tantrum that occurred when Bernanke was Fed chairman, and whether it will resume selling short-term U.S. bonds. Operation Twist, which simultaneously buys long-term U.S. bonds.At the press conference after the meeting, Powell pointed out that it is important that financial conditions continue to remain loose when talking about the significant surge in U.S. bond yields in the past month.Overall, current financial conditions remain highly accommodative, so there is \"no need to react to the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields over the past month.\"。Powell said that the current QE bond purchase policy is appropriate, and it is not the time to start discussing reducing bond purchases. If the Fed may consider reducing QE, it will give a long notice in advance. The Fed will remain patient in maintaining accommodative policy until it completes its duties:\"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment goals before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet.\" However, he also reiterated his view earlier this month that he would be concerned if market conditions were chaotic or if continued tightening of financial conditions threatened the Fed's dual goals of employment and inflation.The analysis pointed out that the market had previously speculated whether the Federal Reserve would take action on higher U.S. bond yields, such as suggesting that this situation was triggering an unwelcome tightening of financial conditions, which may be a precursor to the Fed's intervention. But on Wednesday, Powell apparently didn't promise so much.Regarding the question of whether the SLR exemption will be extended after it expires on March 31, which has been widely concerned by the market, Powell said in the question and answer session that he will not answer it now and will make an official announcement soon, \"In the next few days, we will announce the latest notice around SLR.\"SLR is a capital adequacy ratio indicator of commercial banks. After the financial crisis in 2007-09, in order to prevent risks in the banking system, the United States revised the relevant regulations of SLR to restrict the additional leverage of big American banks. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic last year, the Federal Reserve stepped up monetary easing, and bank reserves included in the SLR calculation rose sharply. In order to promote the operation of the financial system and economic recovery, the Federal Reserve and other regulatory authorities decided to relax the SLR policy and exclude reserves and Treasury Bond. Outside the SLR indicator, it is convenient for depository institutions to buy U.S. debt. This relaxation policy is scheduled to expire on the 31st of this month.Changes to the SLR rules could cause large Wall Street banks to cut their securities holdings and lending. If this policy cannot be extended, it may trigger the market to sell assets. Last week, data from the New York Fed showed that in the week ending March 3, the U.S. Treasury Bond holdings of first-tier brokers decreased by $64.7 billion, the highest weekly decline. Since then, it has been commented that it is precisely because it is even more uncertain whether the loosening of SLR can be postponed that brokers have aggressively sold U.S. debt.At present, the market has very high expectations for the Fed's early statement. Considering the potential consequences of non-exemption,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Recently, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely extend the SLR exemption, believing that both reserve and Treasury Bond exemptions will be extended.<h2>Rate hike officials are expected to increase in 2023, but most still do not expect rate hike's real inflation to continue to exceed 2% before it is possible to bid farewell to QE</h2>This statementKeep reiteratingThe forward guidance on interest rates released last September said that the FOMC's \"committee'sThe goal will be to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for a period of time, so that the average inflation over time can reach 2%, and long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%.In terms of inflation and financial environment, this statement deleted \"weaker demand and sharp drops in oil prices have lowered CPI inflation\" reiterated in the January statement, added the statement \"inflation continues to be below 2%\", and retained \"the overall financial environment The improvement partly reflects the rhetoric that policy measures support the economy and American families and individuals get credit.\"The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in December last year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year.Different from the last dot plot, this time, 4 people are expected to be in rate hike in 2022, one more than last time; This timeOf 18Seven people expect a rate hike in 2023, accounting for nearly 40%, 2 more than the last expected rate hike in 2023, and 6 out of 7 people expect the interest rate to exceed 0.5% by then.(If one rate hike is 25 basis points, it may be at least two rate hike on the current basis). As last time, longer beyond 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, above the Fed's long-term target of 2%.<img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/b15a7cc1-8168-44a2-806a-429ba9803d9c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that most FOMC members of the Monetary Policy Committee did not expect a rate hike in 2023.When talking about the topic of inflation that the market is concerned about,Powell pointed out that the Fed is referring to the actual inflation rate and needs to see that the actual inflation \"substantially and consistently exceeds the 2% target\" rather than \"expected to exceed 2%\" before starting tightening policy。Powell said that the current QE bond purchases are appropriate and it is not yet time to discuss tapering bond purchases. \"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment targets before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we send the signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet yet.\"<h2>Raised GDP growth forecast within two years and PCE inflation forecast within three years, lowered unemployment forecast</h2>The updated economic outlook data released after the meeting showed that the Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecast for this year and next, lowered its growth forecast for 2023, lowered its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and the next three years, and raised its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) inflation rate for the next three years and core PCE inflation expectations excluding food and energy.According to the analysis, although the Federal Reserve has raised its nominal PCE and core PCE forecasts to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively for this year, both are expected to drop again to 2% next year, representing short-lived inflationary pressures.The median expected by Fed officials is:<ul><li>GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% and 3.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, which are 2.3 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the last expected growth rate announced in December last year. The expected GDP growth rate in 2023 has dropped from the last 2.4% to 2.2%.%.</li><li>The unemployment rate in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is expected to be 4.5%, 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively, down 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.</li><li>PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.4%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.6, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li><li>Core PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.2%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.4, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li></ul><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ab19f2f8-b8b7-4b99-87d1-968dfcf203d8.jpg\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de","relate_stocks":{"TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120213935","content_text":"从市场反应看，美联储本周三扮演了救世主。在美联储公布本周货币政策会议的决议后，联储主席鲍威尔讲话期间，美国三大股指昂首上扬，纳指更是抹平早盘1%以上的跌幅，携手标普转涨，创一年多新高的长期美债收益率短线回落，显示美债抛售势头暂时缓和。那么，美联储的会议声明和鲍威尔究竟说了什么？事实上，美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，不管是近零利率还是当前的每月QE购债规模，和今年1月的上次会议决策相比，都没有任何变化。在最近的经济展望中，美联储倒是上调了经济预期，尤其是今年的GDP增速预期，也上调了三年内的核心通胀预期，等于承认了更看好近两年美国经济复苏，预计通胀会更快回升，但联储根本没有表露近期要开始缩减QE的意愿，并且重申仍要保持当前购债的规模，直到经济有进一步的实质性进展。鲍威尔还明确表示，无需对近期美债收益率上升做任何反应。在介绍经济情况方面，本次会议声明继续重申，新冠疫情对美国及全球造成重大的经济困难，并称“在（经济）以温和步伐复苏后，经济活动和就业的指标最近已经回升，但疫情影响最为负面的一些行业仍疲软”，而今年1月的声明所说的是：“近几个月经济活动和就业复苏的步伐温和，疲软集中在最受疫情负面影响的行业。”在新冠疫情方面，和1月声明一样，本次声明也重申，“部分经济将严重依赖疫情发展形势”，并加上了“包括接种的进展”。本次声明依然认为，新冠疫情带来的公共卫生危机“继续施压经济活动、就业和通胀，并对经济前景构成重大风险。”再次重申保持购债 无需对美债收益率过度反应 即将官宣SLR决策本次会后声明再次重申去年12月上上次会后的购债指引，即联储“将增加所持的美国债券，至少每月购买800亿美元美国国债和400亿美元机构住房抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），直到对实现（货币政策）委员会的充分就业和价格稳定目标取得实质性的进一步进展为止。”声明中并没有任何未来可能改变上述购债指引的措辞，也没有提及全称银行补充杠杆率（supplementary leverage ratio）的SLR松绑政策。此次会议决议公布前，本周三当天，10年和30年期美债的收益率在美股早盘大幅攀升，创一年多来新高。评论称，这显示市场对美联储的决议感到紧张。市场关心美联储是否会就6月真正开始采取行动的前景给出线索，比如是否会采取措施避免伯南克任美联储主席时出现的缩减QE恐慌（Taper Tantrum），是否会重新起用卖出短期美债同时买入长期美债的扭转操作（Operation Twist）。在会后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔谈到过去一个月美债收益率显著蹿升时指出，重要的是金融状况继续保持宽松，总体而言，当前金融状况仍然高度宽松，因此“无需对过去一个月的美债收益率大幅上涨作反应”。鲍威尔表示，目前的QE购债政策是合适的，还不是开始讨论缩减债券购买力度的时机，如果美联储可能考虑缩减QE，将提前很久给出通知。美联储将对维持宽松政策保持耐心，直至完成职责：“美联储在考虑缩表之前，需要在实现2%的长期通胀和最大化就业目标方面看到实质性的进一步进展。在我们发出考虑缩表的信号之前，你可以假设我们还没到缩表的时候。”不过，他也重申本月早些时候的观点，即如果市场状况混乱，或是金融状况持续收紧威胁到美联储实现就业和通胀的双重目标，他会感到担忧。分析指出，之前市场猜测美联储是否会对美债收益率走高采取行动，例如暗示这种情况正在引发不受欢迎的金融状况收紧，这可能是美联储介入的前兆。但本周三鲍威尔显然没有如此承诺。对于市场广泛关注的SLR 豁免在3月31日到期后是否延续的问题，鲍威尔在问答环节表示，现在先不回答，马上要作正式宣布，“未来数日，我们将围绕SLR宣布最新通知。”SLR是一种商业银行的资本充足率指标。2007-09年金融危机后，为防范银行系统风险，美国重新修改SLR的相关规定，对美国大银行额外杠杆加以限制。去年新冠疫情爆发后，美联储加码货币宽松，被列入SLR计算的银行准备金大幅上升，为促进金融系统运作和经济复苏，美联储等监管部门决定放松SLR政策，将准备金及国债排除在SLR指标之外，便于存款机构买美债，这种放宽政策定于本月31日到期。SLR规定的改变可能会导致华尔街大型银行削减证券持仓和放贷。如果这一政策不能延长期限，可能引发市场抛售资产。上周纽约联储数据显示，截至3月3日一周，一级经纪商的美国国债持仓减少647亿美元，创单周最高降幅。此后评论称，正是因为更不确定松绑SLR能否延期，所以经纪商激进抛售美债。目前市场对于美联储的提前表态预期非常高。考虑到不豁免的潜在后果，摩根大通最近预计，美联储大概率将延长SLR豁免，认为准备金及国债的豁免都将延长。预计2023年加息官员增加但多数仍预期不加息 实际通胀持续超过2%才可能告别QE本次声明继续重申去年9月公布的利率前瞻指引，称FOMC“委员会的目标将是，在一段时间内实现通胀适度高于2%，以便让一段时间内的平均通胀达到2%，并且长期通胀预期仍很好地锚定在2%。在通胀和金融环境方面，本次声明删除了1月声明重申的“需求更疲软和油价大幅下跌拉低CPI通胀”，新增表述“通胀继续低于2%”，保留了“金融环境总体好转，部分反映出政策措施支持经济，美国家庭和个人得到信贷”的说辞。会后公布的点阵图显示，和去年12月上次发布的点阵图一样，所有美联储官员均预计今年利率保持不变，不同于上次点阵图的是，本次有4人预计2022年将加息，比上次多1人；本次18人中有7人预计2023年会加息，人数占比将近40%，比上次预期2023年加息者多2人，而且7人中有6人预计届时利率超过0.5%（若一次加息25个基点，即可能在当前基础上至少两次加息）。和上次一样，在2023年之后的更长时间内，多数联储官员预计利率会升至2.5%，高于联储长期目标2%。鲍威尔在会后的发布会上称，大多数货币政策委员会FOMC成员都没有预期2023年要加息。在谈到市场关注的通胀话题时，鲍威尔指出，美联储参考的是实际的通胀率，需要看到实际的通货膨胀“实质性且持续超过2%目标”，而不是“预期将超过2%”，而后才会开启紧缩政策。鲍威尔称，当前的QE购债是适合的，还没有到讨论缩减购债的时候。“美联储在考虑缩表之前，需要在实现2%的长期通胀和最大化就业目标方面看到实质性的进一步进展。在我们发出考虑缩表的信号之前，你可以假设我们还没到缩表的时候。”上调两年内GDP增速预期和三年内PCE通胀预期 下调失业率预期会后公布的更新后经济展望数据显示，美联储上调了今明两年的GDP增长预期，下调了2023年的增长预期，下调了今、明、后三年的失业率预期，上调了今、明、后三年的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）通胀率以及剔除食品与能源的核心PCE通胀预期。分析称，虽然美联储将今年的名义PCE和核心PCE预期分别上调至2.4%和2.2%，但预计都将在明年重新降至2%，代表通胀压力短暂。美联储官员预计的中位值为：2021年和2022年GDP分别预计增长6.5%和3.3%，分别较去年12月公布的上次预期增速上调2.3和0.1个百分点，2023年的GDP预期增速从上次的2.4%降至2.2%。2021年、2022年和2023年失业率预期分别为4.5%、3.9%和3.5%，较上次预期分别下调0.5、0.3和0.2个百分点。2021年、2022年和2023年PCE通胀预期分别为2.4%、2.0%和2.1%，较上次预期分别上调0.6、0.1和0.1个百分点。2021年、2022年和2023年核心PCE通胀预期分别为2.2%、2.0%和2.1%，较上次预期分别上调0.4、0.1和0.1个百分点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"BND":0.9,"TLT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":324702011,"gmtCreate":1616028900533,"gmtModify":1704789896130,"author":{"id":"3578108171551448","authorId":"3578108171551448","name":"chanel28","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7ebf65f50ba6566cbb92574d98a8d3","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578108171551448","idStr":"3578108171551448"},"htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324702011","repostId":2120213935,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2120213935","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616027359,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2120213935?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-18 08:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120213935","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，虽然上调了今明两年的GDP预期和三年内的核心通胀预期，但根本没有表露近期要开始缩减QE的意愿，并且重申仍要保持当前购债的规模，直到经济有进一步的实质性进展。鲍威尔还明确表示，无需对近期美债收益率上升做任何反应，要看到实际的通胀实质性且持续超过2%的目标，而不是预期将超过2%，然后才会收缩货币。","content":"Judging from the market reaction, the Federal Reserve played the savior on Wednesday.After the Federal Reserve announced the resolution of this week's monetary policy meeting, during Fed President Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose with their heads held high, and the Nasdaq even smoothed out the decline of more than 1% in early trading. The short-term fall in U.S. bond yields shows that the selling momentum of U.S. bonds has temporarily eased. So, what exactly did the Fed's meeting statement and Powell say?In fact, the Federal Reserve has not taken any new policy actions. Whether it is near-zero interest rates or the current monthly QE bond purchase scale, there has been no change compared with the decision at the last meeting in January this year.In the recent economic outlook, the Federal Reserve has raised its economic forecasts, especially this year's GDP growth forecast, and also raised its core inflation forecast within three years, which is equivalent to admitting that it is more optimistic about the recovery of the U.S. economy in the past two years and expects inflation to be faster. However, the Fed has not expressed its willingness to start reducing QE in the near future, and reiterated that it will still maintain the current scale of bond purchases until the economy makes further substantial progress. Powell also made it clear that there is no need to react to the recent rise in U.S. bond yields.In terms of introducing the economic situation, the statement of this meeting continued to reiterate that COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant economic difficulties to the United States and the world, and said that \"after (the economy) recovered at a moderate pace, indicators of economic activity and employment have recently picked up, but the impact of the epidemic Some of the most negative industries are still weak,\" while the January statement said: \"The pace of economic activity and employment recovery in recent months has been moderate, with weakness concentrated in the industries most negatively affected by the epidemic.\"In terms of COVID-19 pandemic, like the January statement, this statement alsoReaffirm，“Some economies will rely heavily on the development of the epidemic situation\", and added\"Including progress of vaccination”。 The statement still believes that the public health crisis brought about by COVID-19 pandemic \"continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, and poses a significant risk to the economic outlook.\"<h2>Once again reiterate that there is no need to overreact to U.S. bond yields to maintain bond purchases and will soon officially announce the SLR decision</h2>The post-meeting statement once again reiterated the bond purchase guidance after the last meeting in December last year, that is, the Fed \"will increase its holdings of U.S. bonds and purchase at least $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities every month (MBS),Until substantial further progress has been made towards achieving the goals of full employment and price stability of the (Monetary Policy) Committee。”There is no wording in the statement that may change the above-mentioned bond purchase guidance in the future, nor does it mention the SLR loosening policy, which is the full name of bank supplementary leverage ratio.Before the announcement of the meeting resolution, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. bonds rose sharply in early trading on Wednesday, hitting a new high in more than a year. The commentary said that this shows that the market is nervous about the Fed's decision. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will give clues about the prospect of actually starting to take action in June, such as whether it will take measures to avoid the Taper Tantrum that occurred when Bernanke was Fed chairman, and whether it will resume selling short-term U.S. bonds. Operation Twist, which simultaneously buys long-term U.S. bonds.At the press conference after the meeting, Powell pointed out that it is important that financial conditions continue to remain loose when talking about the significant surge in U.S. bond yields in the past month.Overall, current financial conditions remain highly accommodative, so there is \"no need to react to the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields over the past month.\"。Powell said that the current QE bond purchase policy is appropriate, and it is not the time to start discussing reducing bond purchases. If the Fed may consider reducing QE, it will give a long notice in advance. The Fed will remain patient in maintaining accommodative policy until it completes its duties:\"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment goals before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet.\" However, he also reiterated his view earlier this month that he would be concerned if market conditions were chaotic or if continued tightening of financial conditions threatened the Fed's dual goals of employment and inflation.The analysis pointed out that the market had previously speculated whether the Federal Reserve would take action on higher U.S. bond yields, such as suggesting that this situation was triggering an unwelcome tightening of financial conditions, which may be a precursor to the Fed's intervention. But on Wednesday, Powell apparently didn't promise so much.Regarding the question of whether the SLR exemption will be extended after it expires on March 31, which has been widely concerned by the market, Powell said in the question and answer session that he will not answer it now and will make an official announcement soon, \"In the next few days, we will announce the latest notice around SLR.\"SLR is a capital adequacy ratio indicator of commercial banks. After the financial crisis in 2007-09, in order to prevent risks in the banking system, the United States revised the relevant regulations of SLR to restrict the additional leverage of big American banks. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic last year, the Federal Reserve stepped up monetary easing, and bank reserves included in the SLR calculation rose sharply. In order to promote the operation of the financial system and economic recovery, the Federal Reserve and other regulatory authorities decided to relax the SLR policy and exclude reserves and Treasury Bond. Outside the SLR indicator, it is convenient for depository institutions to buy U.S. debt. This relaxation policy is scheduled to expire on the 31st of this month.Changes to the SLR rules could cause large Wall Street banks to cut their securities holdings and lending. If this policy cannot be extended, it may trigger the market to sell assets. Last week, data from the New York Fed showed that in the week ending March 3, the U.S. Treasury Bond holdings of first-tier brokers decreased by $64.7 billion, the highest weekly decline. Since then, it has been commented that it is precisely because it is even more uncertain whether the loosening of SLR can be postponed that brokers have aggressively sold U.S. debt.At present, the market has very high expectations for the Fed's early statement. Considering the potential consequences of non-exemption,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Recently, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely extend the SLR exemption, believing that both reserve and Treasury Bond exemptions will be extended.<h2>Rate hike officials are expected to increase in 2023, but most still do not expect rate hike's real inflation to continue to exceed 2% before it is possible to bid farewell to QE</h2>This statementKeep reiteratingThe forward guidance on interest rates released last September said that the FOMC's \"committee'sThe goal will be to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for a period of time, so that the average inflation over time can reach 2%, and long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%.In terms of inflation and financial environment, this statement deleted \"weaker demand and sharp drops in oil prices have lowered CPI inflation\" reiterated in the January statement, added the statement \"inflation continues to be below 2%\", and retained \"the overall financial environment The improvement partly reflects the rhetoric that policy measures support the economy and American families and individuals get credit.\"The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in December last year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year.Different from the last dot plot, this time, 4 people are expected to be in rate hike in 2022, one more than last time; This timeOf 18Seven people expect a rate hike in 2023, accounting for nearly 40%, 2 more than the last expected rate hike in 2023, and 6 out of 7 people expect the interest rate to exceed 0.5% by then.(If one rate hike is 25 basis points, it may be at least two rate hike on the current basis). As last time, longer beyond 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, above the Fed's long-term target of 2%.<img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/b15a7cc1-8168-44a2-806a-429ba9803d9c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that most FOMC members of the Monetary Policy Committee did not expect a rate hike in 2023.When talking about the topic of inflation that the market is concerned about,Powell pointed out that the Fed is referring to the actual inflation rate and needs to see that the actual inflation \"substantially and consistently exceeds the 2% target\" rather than \"expected to exceed 2%\" before starting tightening policy。Powell said that the current QE bond purchases are appropriate and it is not yet time to discuss tapering bond purchases. \"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment targets before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we send the signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet yet.\"<h2>Raised GDP growth forecast within two years and PCE inflation forecast within three years, lowered unemployment forecast</h2>The updated economic outlook data released after the meeting showed that the Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecast for this year and next, lowered its growth forecast for 2023, lowered its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and the next three years, and raised its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) inflation rate for the next three years and core PCE inflation expectations excluding food and energy.According to the analysis, although the Federal Reserve has raised its nominal PCE and core PCE forecasts to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively for this year, both are expected to drop again to 2% next year, representing short-lived inflationary pressures.The median expected by Fed officials is:<ul><li>GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% and 3.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, which are 2.3 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the last expected growth rate announced in December last year. The expected GDP growth rate in 2023 has dropped from the last 2.4% to 2.2%.%.</li><li>The unemployment rate in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is expected to be 4.5%, 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively, down 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.</li><li>PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.4%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.6, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li><li>Core PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.2%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.4, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li></ul><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ab19f2f8-b8b7-4b99-87d1-968dfcf203d8.jpg\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-03-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nJudging from the market reaction, the Federal Reserve played the savior on Wednesday.After the Federal Reserve announced the resolution of this week's monetary policy meeting, during Fed President Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose with their heads held high, and the Nasdaq even smoothed out the decline of more than 1% in early trading. The short-term fall in U.S. bond yields shows that the selling momentum of U.S. bonds has temporarily eased. So, what exactly did the Fed's meeting statement and Powell say?In fact, the Federal Reserve has not taken any new policy actions. Whether it is near-zero interest rates or the current monthly QE bond purchase scale, there has been no change compared with the decision at the last meeting in January this year.In the recent economic outlook, the Federal Reserve has raised its economic forecasts, especially this year's GDP growth forecast, and also raised its core inflation forecast within three years, which is equivalent to admitting that it is more optimistic about the recovery of the U.S. economy in the past two years and expects inflation to be faster. However, the Fed has not expressed its willingness to start reducing QE in the near future, and reiterated that it will still maintain the current scale of bond purchases until the economy makes further substantial progress. Powell also made it clear that there is no need to react to the recent rise in U.S. bond yields.In terms of introducing the economic situation, the statement of this meeting continued to reiterate that COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant economic difficulties to the United States and the world, and said that \"after (the economy) recovered at a moderate pace, indicators of economic activity and employment have recently picked up, but the impact of the epidemic Some of the most negative industries are still weak,\" while the January statement said: \"The pace of economic activity and employment recovery in recent months has been moderate, with weakness concentrated in the industries most negatively affected by the epidemic.\"In terms of COVID-19 pandemic, like the January statement, this statement alsoReaffirm，“Some economies will rely heavily on the development of the epidemic situation\", and added\"Including progress of vaccination”。 The statement still believes that the public health crisis brought about by COVID-19 pandemic \"continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, and poses a significant risk to the economic outlook.\"<h2>Once again reiterate that there is no need to overreact to U.S. bond yields to maintain bond purchases and will soon officially announce the SLR decision</h2>The post-meeting statement once again reiterated the bond purchase guidance after the last meeting in December last year, that is, the Fed \"will increase its holdings of U.S. bonds and purchase at least $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities every month (MBS),Until substantial further progress has been made towards achieving the goals of full employment and price stability of the (Monetary Policy) Committee。”There is no wording in the statement that may change the above-mentioned bond purchase guidance in the future, nor does it mention the SLR loosening policy, which is the full name of bank supplementary leverage ratio.Before the announcement of the meeting resolution, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. bonds rose sharply in early trading on Wednesday, hitting a new high in more than a year. The commentary said that this shows that the market is nervous about the Fed's decision. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will give clues about the prospect of actually starting to take action in June, such as whether it will take measures to avoid the Taper Tantrum that occurred when Bernanke was Fed chairman, and whether it will resume selling short-term U.S. bonds. Operation Twist, which simultaneously buys long-term U.S. bonds.At the press conference after the meeting, Powell pointed out that it is important that financial conditions continue to remain loose when talking about the significant surge in U.S. bond yields in the past month.Overall, current financial conditions remain highly accommodative, so there is \"no need to react to the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields over the past month.\"。Powell said that the current QE bond purchase policy is appropriate, and it is not the time to start discussing reducing bond purchases. If the Fed may consider reducing QE, it will give a long notice in advance. The Fed will remain patient in maintaining accommodative policy until it completes its duties:\"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment goals before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet.\" However, he also reiterated his view earlier this month that he would be concerned if market conditions were chaotic or if continued tightening of financial conditions threatened the Fed's dual goals of employment and inflation.The analysis pointed out that the market had previously speculated whether the Federal Reserve would take action on higher U.S. bond yields, such as suggesting that this situation was triggering an unwelcome tightening of financial conditions, which may be a precursor to the Fed's intervention. But on Wednesday, Powell apparently didn't promise so much.Regarding the question of whether the SLR exemption will be extended after it expires on March 31, which has been widely concerned by the market, Powell said in the question and answer session that he will not answer it now and will make an official announcement soon, \"In the next few days, we will announce the latest notice around SLR.\"SLR is a capital adequacy ratio indicator of commercial banks. After the financial crisis in 2007-09, in order to prevent risks in the banking system, the United States revised the relevant regulations of SLR to restrict the additional leverage of big American banks. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic last year, the Federal Reserve stepped up monetary easing, and bank reserves included in the SLR calculation rose sharply. In order to promote the operation of the financial system and economic recovery, the Federal Reserve and other regulatory authorities decided to relax the SLR policy and exclude reserves and Treasury Bond. Outside the SLR indicator, it is convenient for depository institutions to buy U.S. debt. This relaxation policy is scheduled to expire on the 31st of this month.Changes to the SLR rules could cause large Wall Street banks to cut their securities holdings and lending. If this policy cannot be extended, it may trigger the market to sell assets. Last week, data from the New York Fed showed that in the week ending March 3, the U.S. Treasury Bond holdings of first-tier brokers decreased by $64.7 billion, the highest weekly decline. Since then, it has been commented that it is precisely because it is even more uncertain whether the loosening of SLR can be postponed that brokers have aggressively sold U.S. debt.At present, the market has very high expectations for the Fed's early statement. Considering the potential consequences of non-exemption,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Recently, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely extend the SLR exemption, believing that both reserve and Treasury Bond exemptions will be extended.<h2>Rate hike officials are expected to increase in 2023, but most still do not expect rate hike's real inflation to continue to exceed 2% before it is possible to bid farewell to QE</h2>This statementKeep reiteratingThe forward guidance on interest rates released last September said that the FOMC's \"committee'sThe goal will be to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for a period of time, so that the average inflation over time can reach 2%, and long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%.In terms of inflation and financial environment, this statement deleted \"weaker demand and sharp drops in oil prices have lowered CPI inflation\" reiterated in the January statement, added the statement \"inflation continues to be below 2%\", and retained \"the overall financial environment The improvement partly reflects the rhetoric that policy measures support the economy and American families and individuals get credit.\"The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in December last year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year.Different from the last dot plot, this time, 4 people are expected to be in rate hike in 2022, one more than last time; This timeOf 18Seven people expect a rate hike in 2023, accounting for nearly 40%, 2 more than the last expected rate hike in 2023, and 6 out of 7 people expect the interest rate to exceed 0.5% by then.(If one rate hike is 25 basis points, it may be at least two rate hike on the current basis). As last time, longer beyond 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, above the Fed's long-term target of 2%.<img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/b15a7cc1-8168-44a2-806a-429ba9803d9c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that most FOMC members of the Monetary Policy Committee did not expect a rate hike in 2023.When talking about the topic of inflation that the market is concerned about,Powell pointed out that the Fed is referring to the actual inflation rate and needs to see that the actual inflation \"substantially and consistently exceeds the 2% target\" rather than \"expected to exceed 2%\" before starting tightening policy。Powell said that the current QE bond purchases are appropriate and it is not yet time to discuss tapering bond purchases. \"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment targets before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we send the signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet yet.\"<h2>Raised GDP growth forecast within two years and PCE inflation forecast within three years, lowered unemployment forecast</h2>The updated economic outlook data released after the meeting showed that the Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecast for this year and next, lowered its growth forecast for 2023, lowered its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and the next three years, and raised its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) inflation rate for the next three years and core PCE inflation expectations excluding food and energy.According to the analysis, although the Federal Reserve has raised its nominal PCE and core PCE forecasts to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively for this year, both are expected to drop again to 2% next year, representing short-lived inflationary pressures.The median expected by Fed officials is:<ul><li>GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% and 3.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, which are 2.3 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the last expected growth rate announced in December last year. The expected GDP growth rate in 2023 has dropped from the last 2.4% to 2.2%.%.</li><li>The unemployment rate in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is expected to be 4.5%, 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively, down 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.</li><li>PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.4%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.6, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li><li>Core PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.2%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.4, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li></ul><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ab19f2f8-b8b7-4b99-87d1-968dfcf203d8.jpg\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de","relate_stocks":{"TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120213935","content_text":"从市场反应看，美联储本周三扮演了救世主。在美联储公布本周货币政策会议的决议后，联储主席鲍威尔讲话期间，美国三大股指昂首上扬，纳指更是抹平早盘1%以上的跌幅，携手标普转涨，创一年多新高的长期美债收益率短线回落，显示美债抛售势头暂时缓和。那么，美联储的会议声明和鲍威尔究竟说了什么？事实上，美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，不管是近零利率还是当前的每月QE购债规模，和今年1月的上次会议决策相比，都没有任何变化。在最近的经济展望中，美联储倒是上调了经济预期，尤其是今年的GDP增速预期，也上调了三年内的核心通胀预期，等于承认了更看好近两年美国经济复苏，预计通胀会更快回升，但联储根本没有表露近期要开始缩减QE的意愿，并且重申仍要保持当前购债的规模，直到经济有进一步的实质性进展。鲍威尔还明确表示，无需对近期美债收益率上升做任何反应。在介绍经济情况方面，本次会议声明继续重申，新冠疫情对美国及全球造成重大的经济困难，并称“在（经济）以温和步伐复苏后，经济活动和就业的指标最近已经回升，但疫情影响最为负面的一些行业仍疲软”，而今年1月的声明所说的是：“近几个月经济活动和就业复苏的步伐温和，疲软集中在最受疫情负面影响的行业。”在新冠疫情方面，和1月声明一样，本次声明也重申，“部分经济将严重依赖疫情发展形势”，并加上了“包括接种的进展”。本次声明依然认为，新冠疫情带来的公共卫生危机“继续施压经济活动、就业和通胀，并对经济前景构成重大风险。”再次重申保持购债 无需对美债收益率过度反应 即将官宣SLR决策本次会后声明再次重申去年12月上上次会后的购债指引，即联储“将增加所持的美国债券，至少每月购买800亿美元美国国债和400亿美元机构住房抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），直到对实现（货币政策）委员会的充分就业和价格稳定目标取得实质性的进一步进展为止。”声明中并没有任何未来可能改变上述购债指引的措辞，也没有提及全称银行补充杠杆率（supplementary leverage ratio）的SLR松绑政策。此次会议决议公布前，本周三当天，10年和30年期美债的收益率在美股早盘大幅攀升，创一年多来新高。评论称，这显示市场对美联储的决议感到紧张。市场关心美联储是否会就6月真正开始采取行动的前景给出线索，比如是否会采取措施避免伯南克任美联储主席时出现的缩减QE恐慌（Taper Tantrum），是否会重新起用卖出短期美债同时买入长期美债的扭转操作（Operation Twist）。在会后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔谈到过去一个月美债收益率显著蹿升时指出，重要的是金融状况继续保持宽松，总体而言，当前金融状况仍然高度宽松，因此“无需对过去一个月的美债收益率大幅上涨作反应”。鲍威尔表示，目前的QE购债政策是合适的，还不是开始讨论缩减债券购买力度的时机，如果美联储可能考虑缩减QE，将提前很久给出通知。美联储将对维持宽松政策保持耐心，直至完成职责：“美联储在考虑缩表之前，需要在实现2%的长期通胀和最大化就业目标方面看到实质性的进一步进展。在我们发出考虑缩表的信号之前，你可以假设我们还没到缩表的时候。”不过，他也重申本月早些时候的观点，即如果市场状况混乱，或是金融状况持续收紧威胁到美联储实现就业和通胀的双重目标，他会感到担忧。分析指出，之前市场猜测美联储是否会对美债收益率走高采取行动，例如暗示这种情况正在引发不受欢迎的金融状况收紧，这可能是美联储介入的前兆。但本周三鲍威尔显然没有如此承诺。对于市场广泛关注的SLR 豁免在3月31日到期后是否延续的问题，鲍威尔在问答环节表示，现在先不回答，马上要作正式宣布，“未来数日，我们将围绕SLR宣布最新通知。”SLR是一种商业银行的资本充足率指标。2007-09年金融危机后，为防范银行系统风险，美国重新修改SLR的相关规定，对美国大银行额外杠杆加以限制。去年新冠疫情爆发后，美联储加码货币宽松，被列入SLR计算的银行准备金大幅上升，为促进金融系统运作和经济复苏，美联储等监管部门决定放松SLR政策，将准备金及国债排除在SLR指标之外，便于存款机构买美债，这种放宽政策定于本月31日到期。SLR规定的改变可能会导致华尔街大型银行削减证券持仓和放贷。如果这一政策不能延长期限，可能引发市场抛售资产。上周纽约联储数据显示，截至3月3日一周，一级经纪商的美国国债持仓减少647亿美元，创单周最高降幅。此后评论称，正是因为更不确定松绑SLR能否延期，所以经纪商激进抛售美债。目前市场对于美联储的提前表态预期非常高。考虑到不豁免的潜在后果，摩根大通最近预计，美联储大概率将延长SLR豁免，认为准备金及国债的豁免都将延长。预计2023年加息官员增加但多数仍预期不加息 实际通胀持续超过2%才可能告别QE本次声明继续重申去年9月公布的利率前瞻指引，称FOMC“委员会的目标将是，在一段时间内实现通胀适度高于2%，以便让一段时间内的平均通胀达到2%，并且长期通胀预期仍很好地锚定在2%。在通胀和金融环境方面，本次声明删除了1月声明重申的“需求更疲软和油价大幅下跌拉低CPI通胀”，新增表述“通胀继续低于2%”，保留了“金融环境总体好转，部分反映出政策措施支持经济，美国家庭和个人得到信贷”的说辞。会后公布的点阵图显示，和去年12月上次发布的点阵图一样，所有美联储官员均预计今年利率保持不变，不同于上次点阵图的是，本次有4人预计2022年将加息，比上次多1人；本次18人中有7人预计2023年会加息，人数占比将近40%，比上次预期2023年加息者多2人，而且7人中有6人预计届时利率超过0.5%（若一次加息25个基点，即可能在当前基础上至少两次加息）。和上次一样，在2023年之后的更长时间内，多数联储官员预计利率会升至2.5%，高于联储长期目标2%。鲍威尔在会后的发布会上称，大多数货币政策委员会FOMC成员都没有预期2023年要加息。在谈到市场关注的通胀话题时，鲍威尔指出，美联储参考的是实际的通胀率，需要看到实际的通货膨胀“实质性且持续超过2%目标”，而不是“预期将超过2%”，而后才会开启紧缩政策。鲍威尔称，当前的QE购债是适合的，还没有到讨论缩减购债的时候。“美联储在考虑缩表之前，需要在实现2%的长期通胀和最大化就业目标方面看到实质性的进一步进展。在我们发出考虑缩表的信号之前，你可以假设我们还没到缩表的时候。”上调两年内GDP增速预期和三年内PCE通胀预期 下调失业率预期会后公布的更新后经济展望数据显示，美联储上调了今明两年的GDP增长预期，下调了2023年的增长预期，下调了今、明、后三年的失业率预期，上调了今、明、后三年的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）通胀率以及剔除食品与能源的核心PCE通胀预期。分析称，虽然美联储将今年的名义PCE和核心PCE预期分别上调至2.4%和2.2%，但预计都将在明年重新降至2%，代表通胀压力短暂。美联储官员预计的中位值为：2021年和2022年GDP分别预计增长6.5%和3.3%，分别较去年12月公布的上次预期增速上调2.3和0.1个百分点，2023年的GDP预期增速从上次的2.4%降至2.2%。2021年、2022年和2023年失业率预期分别为4.5%、3.9%和3.5%，较上次预期分别下调0.5、0.3和0.2个百分点。2021年、2022年和2023年PCE通胀预期分别为2.4%、2.0%和2.1%，较上次预期分别上调0.6、0.1和0.1个百分点。2021年、2022年和2023年核心PCE通胀预期分别为2.2%、2.0%和2.1%，较上次预期分别上调0.4、0.1和0.1个百分点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"BND":0.9,"TLT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3821662,"gmtCreate":1616028919258,"gmtModify":1680780787344,"authorId":3578108171551448,"author":{"id":3578108171551448,"idStr":"3578108171551448","authorId":3578108171551448,"name":"chanel28","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7ebf65f50ba6566cbb92574d98a8d3","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":324702011,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"??","text":"??","html":"??"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":324701149,"gmtCreate":1616028755481,"gmtModify":1704789892897,"author":{"id":"3553346853986978","authorId":"3553346853986978","name":"健安_1832","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a310972d59b708bb82abef5c003c84e","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3553346853986978","idStr":"3553346853986978"},"htmlText":"來了嗎","listText":"來了嗎","text":"來了嗎","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/324701149","repostId":2120213935,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2120213935","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616027359,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2120213935?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-18 08:29","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Is the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120213935","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，虽然上调了今明两年的GDP预期和三年内的核心通胀预期，但根本没有表露近期要开始缩减QE的意愿，并且重申仍要保持当前购债的规模，直到经济有进一步的实质性进展。鲍威尔还明确表示，无需对近期美债收益率上升做任何反应，要看到实际的通胀实质性且持续超过2%的目标，而不是预期将超过2%，然后才会收缩货币。","content":"Judging from the market reaction, the Federal Reserve played the savior on Wednesday.After the Federal Reserve announced the resolution of this week's monetary policy meeting, during Fed President Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose with their heads held high, and the Nasdaq even smoothed out the decline of more than 1% in early trading. The short-term fall in U.S. bond yields shows that the selling momentum of U.S. bonds has temporarily eased. So, what exactly did the Fed's meeting statement and Powell say?In fact, the Federal Reserve has not taken any new policy actions. Whether it is near-zero interest rates or the current monthly QE bond purchase scale, there has been no change compared with the decision at the last meeting in January this year.In the recent economic outlook, the Federal Reserve has raised its economic forecasts, especially this year's GDP growth forecast, and also raised its core inflation forecast within three years, which is equivalent to admitting that it is more optimistic about the recovery of the U.S. economy in the past two years and expects inflation to be faster. However, the Fed has not expressed its willingness to start reducing QE in the near future, and reiterated that it will still maintain the current scale of bond purchases until the economy makes further substantial progress. Powell also made it clear that there is no need to react to the recent rise in U.S. bond yields.In terms of introducing the economic situation, the statement of this meeting continued to reiterate that COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant economic difficulties to the United States and the world, and said that \"after (the economy) recovered at a moderate pace, indicators of economic activity and employment have recently picked up, but the impact of the epidemic Some of the most negative industries are still weak,\" while the January statement said: \"The pace of economic activity and employment recovery in recent months has been moderate, with weakness concentrated in the industries most negatively affected by the epidemic.\"In terms of COVID-19 pandemic, like the January statement, this statement alsoReaffirm，“Some economies will rely heavily on the development of the epidemic situation\", and added\"Including progress of vaccination”。 The statement still believes that the public health crisis brought about by COVID-19 pandemic \"continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, and poses a significant risk to the economic outlook.\"<h2>Once again reiterate that there is no need to overreact to U.S. bond yields to maintain bond purchases and will soon officially announce the SLR decision</h2>The post-meeting statement once again reiterated the bond purchase guidance after the last meeting in December last year, that is, the Fed \"will increase its holdings of U.S. bonds and purchase at least $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities every month (MBS),Until substantial further progress has been made towards achieving the goals of full employment and price stability of the (Monetary Policy) Committee。”There is no wording in the statement that may change the above-mentioned bond purchase guidance in the future, nor does it mention the SLR loosening policy, which is the full name of bank supplementary leverage ratio.Before the announcement of the meeting resolution, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. bonds rose sharply in early trading on Wednesday, hitting a new high in more than a year. The commentary said that this shows that the market is nervous about the Fed's decision. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will give clues about the prospect of actually starting to take action in June, such as whether it will take measures to avoid the Taper Tantrum that occurred when Bernanke was Fed chairman, and whether it will resume selling short-term U.S. bonds. Operation Twist, which simultaneously buys long-term U.S. bonds.At the press conference after the meeting, Powell pointed out that it is important that financial conditions continue to remain loose when talking about the significant surge in U.S. bond yields in the past month.Overall, current financial conditions remain highly accommodative, so there is \"no need to react to the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields over the past month.\"。Powell said that the current QE bond purchase policy is appropriate, and it is not the time to start discussing reducing bond purchases. If the Fed may consider reducing QE, it will give a long notice in advance. The Fed will remain patient in maintaining accommodative policy until it completes its duties:\"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment goals before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet.\" However, he also reiterated his view earlier this month that he would be concerned if market conditions were chaotic or if continued tightening of financial conditions threatened the Fed's dual goals of employment and inflation.The analysis pointed out that the market had previously speculated whether the Federal Reserve would take action on higher U.S. bond yields, such as suggesting that this situation was triggering an unwelcome tightening of financial conditions, which may be a precursor to the Fed's intervention. But on Wednesday, Powell apparently didn't promise so much.Regarding the question of whether the SLR exemption will be extended after it expires on March 31, which has been widely concerned by the market, Powell said in the question and answer session that he will not answer it now and will make an official announcement soon, \"In the next few days, we will announce the latest notice around SLR.\"SLR is a capital adequacy ratio indicator of commercial banks. After the financial crisis in 2007-09, in order to prevent risks in the banking system, the United States revised the relevant regulations of SLR to restrict the additional leverage of big American banks. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic last year, the Federal Reserve stepped up monetary easing, and bank reserves included in the SLR calculation rose sharply. In order to promote the operation of the financial system and economic recovery, the Federal Reserve and other regulatory authorities decided to relax the SLR policy and exclude reserves and Treasury Bond. Outside the SLR indicator, it is convenient for depository institutions to buy U.S. debt. This relaxation policy is scheduled to expire on the 31st of this month.Changes to the SLR rules could cause large Wall Street banks to cut their securities holdings and lending. If this policy cannot be extended, it may trigger the market to sell assets. Last week, data from the New York Fed showed that in the week ending March 3, the U.S. Treasury Bond holdings of first-tier brokers decreased by $64.7 billion, the highest weekly decline. Since then, it has been commented that it is precisely because it is even more uncertain whether the loosening of SLR can be postponed that brokers have aggressively sold U.S. debt.At present, the market has very high expectations for the Fed's early statement. Considering the potential consequences of non-exemption,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Recently, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely extend the SLR exemption, believing that both reserve and Treasury Bond exemptions will be extended.<h2>Rate hike officials are expected to increase in 2023, but most still do not expect rate hike's real inflation to continue to exceed 2% before it is possible to bid farewell to QE</h2>This statementKeep reiteratingThe forward guidance on interest rates released last September said that the FOMC's \"committee'sThe goal will be to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for a period of time, so that the average inflation over time can reach 2%, and long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%.In terms of inflation and financial environment, this statement deleted \"weaker demand and sharp drops in oil prices have lowered CPI inflation\" reiterated in the January statement, added the statement \"inflation continues to be below 2%\", and retained \"the overall financial environment The improvement partly reflects the rhetoric that policy measures support the economy and American families and individuals get credit.\"The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in December last year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year.Different from the last dot plot, this time, 4 people are expected to be in rate hike in 2022, one more than last time; This timeOf 18Seven people expect a rate hike in 2023, accounting for nearly 40%, 2 more than the last expected rate hike in 2023, and 6 out of 7 people expect the interest rate to exceed 0.5% by then.(If one rate hike is 25 basis points, it may be at least two rate hike on the current basis). As last time, longer beyond 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, above the Fed's long-term target of 2%.<img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/b15a7cc1-8168-44a2-806a-429ba9803d9c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that most FOMC members of the Monetary Policy Committee did not expect a rate hike in 2023.When talking about the topic of inflation that the market is concerned about,Powell pointed out that the Fed is referring to the actual inflation rate and needs to see that the actual inflation \"substantially and consistently exceeds the 2% target\" rather than \"expected to exceed 2%\" before starting tightening policy。Powell said that the current QE bond purchases are appropriate and it is not yet time to discuss tapering bond purchases. \"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment targets before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we send the signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet yet.\"<h2>Raised GDP growth forecast within two years and PCE inflation forecast within three years, lowered unemployment forecast</h2>The updated economic outlook data released after the meeting showed that the Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecast for this year and next, lowered its growth forecast for 2023, lowered its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and the next three years, and raised its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) inflation rate for the next three years and core PCE inflation expectations excluding food and energy.According to the analysis, although the Federal Reserve has raised its nominal PCE and core PCE forecasts to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively for this year, both are expected to drop again to 2% next year, representing short-lived inflationary pressures.The median expected by Fed officials is:<ul><li>GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% and 3.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, which are 2.3 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the last expected growth rate announced in December last year. The expected GDP growth rate in 2023 has dropped from the last 2.4% to 2.2%.%.</li><li>The unemployment rate in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is expected to be 4.5%, 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively, down 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.</li><li>PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.4%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.6, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li><li>Core PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.2%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.4, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li></ul><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ab19f2f8-b8b7-4b99-87d1-968dfcf203d8.jpg\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the savior of U.S. stocks and U.S. debt here? Understand what the Fed did this Wednesday in one article\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-03-18 08:29\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nJudging from the market reaction, the Federal Reserve played the savior on Wednesday.After the Federal Reserve announced the resolution of this week's monetary policy meeting, during Fed President Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose with their heads held high, and the Nasdaq even smoothed out the decline of more than 1% in early trading. The short-term fall in U.S. bond yields shows that the selling momentum of U.S. bonds has temporarily eased. So, what exactly did the Fed's meeting statement and Powell say?In fact, the Federal Reserve has not taken any new policy actions. Whether it is near-zero interest rates or the current monthly QE bond purchase scale, there has been no change compared with the decision at the last meeting in January this year.In the recent economic outlook, the Federal Reserve has raised its economic forecasts, especially this year's GDP growth forecast, and also raised its core inflation forecast within three years, which is equivalent to admitting that it is more optimistic about the recovery of the U.S. economy in the past two years and expects inflation to be faster. However, the Fed has not expressed its willingness to start reducing QE in the near future, and reiterated that it will still maintain the current scale of bond purchases until the economy makes further substantial progress. Powell also made it clear that there is no need to react to the recent rise in U.S. bond yields.In terms of introducing the economic situation, the statement of this meeting continued to reiterate that COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant economic difficulties to the United States and the world, and said that \"after (the economy) recovered at a moderate pace, indicators of economic activity and employment have recently picked up, but the impact of the epidemic Some of the most negative industries are still weak,\" while the January statement said: \"The pace of economic activity and employment recovery in recent months has been moderate, with weakness concentrated in the industries most negatively affected by the epidemic.\"In terms of COVID-19 pandemic, like the January statement, this statement alsoReaffirm，“Some economies will rely heavily on the development of the epidemic situation\", and added\"Including progress of vaccination”。 The statement still believes that the public health crisis brought about by COVID-19 pandemic \"continues to put pressure on economic activity, employment and inflation, and poses a significant risk to the economic outlook.\"<h2>Once again reiterate that there is no need to overreact to U.S. bond yields to maintain bond purchases and will soon officially announce the SLR decision</h2>The post-meeting statement once again reiterated the bond purchase guidance after the last meeting in December last year, that is, the Fed \"will increase its holdings of U.S. bonds and purchase at least $80 billion in U.S. Treasury Bond and $40 billion in agency mortgage-backed securities every month (MBS),Until substantial further progress has been made towards achieving the goals of full employment and price stability of the (Monetary Policy) Committee。”There is no wording in the statement that may change the above-mentioned bond purchase guidance in the future, nor does it mention the SLR loosening policy, which is the full name of bank supplementary leverage ratio.Before the announcement of the meeting resolution, the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. bonds rose sharply in early trading on Wednesday, hitting a new high in more than a year. The commentary said that this shows that the market is nervous about the Fed's decision. The market is concerned about whether the Fed will give clues about the prospect of actually starting to take action in June, such as whether it will take measures to avoid the Taper Tantrum that occurred when Bernanke was Fed chairman, and whether it will resume selling short-term U.S. bonds. Operation Twist, which simultaneously buys long-term U.S. bonds.At the press conference after the meeting, Powell pointed out that it is important that financial conditions continue to remain loose when talking about the significant surge in U.S. bond yields in the past month.Overall, current financial conditions remain highly accommodative, so there is \"no need to react to the sharp rise in U.S. bond yields over the past month.\"。Powell said that the current QE bond purchase policy is appropriate, and it is not the time to start discussing reducing bond purchases. If the Fed may consider reducing QE, it will give a long notice in advance. The Fed will remain patient in maintaining accommodative policy until it completes its duties:\"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment goals before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet.\" However, he also reiterated his view earlier this month that he would be concerned if market conditions were chaotic or if continued tightening of financial conditions threatened the Fed's dual goals of employment and inflation.The analysis pointed out that the market had previously speculated whether the Federal Reserve would take action on higher U.S. bond yields, such as suggesting that this situation was triggering an unwelcome tightening of financial conditions, which may be a precursor to the Fed's intervention. But on Wednesday, Powell apparently didn't promise so much.Regarding the question of whether the SLR exemption will be extended after it expires on March 31, which has been widely concerned by the market, Powell said in the question and answer session that he will not answer it now and will make an official announcement soon, \"In the next few days, we will announce the latest notice around SLR.\"SLR is a capital adequacy ratio indicator of commercial banks. After the financial crisis in 2007-09, in order to prevent risks in the banking system, the United States revised the relevant regulations of SLR to restrict the additional leverage of big American banks. After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic last year, the Federal Reserve stepped up monetary easing, and bank reserves included in the SLR calculation rose sharply. In order to promote the operation of the financial system and economic recovery, the Federal Reserve and other regulatory authorities decided to relax the SLR policy and exclude reserves and Treasury Bond. Outside the SLR indicator, it is convenient for depository institutions to buy U.S. debt. This relaxation policy is scheduled to expire on the 31st of this month.Changes to the SLR rules could cause large Wall Street banks to cut their securities holdings and lending. If this policy cannot be extended, it may trigger the market to sell assets. Last week, data from the New York Fed showed that in the week ending March 3, the U.S. Treasury Bond holdings of first-tier brokers decreased by $64.7 billion, the highest weekly decline. Since then, it has been commented that it is precisely because it is even more uncertain whether the loosening of SLR can be postponed that brokers have aggressively sold U.S. debt.At present, the market has very high expectations for the Fed's early statement. Considering the potential consequences of non-exemption,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Recently, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will most likely extend the SLR exemption, believing that both reserve and Treasury Bond exemptions will be extended.<h2>Rate hike officials are expected to increase in 2023, but most still do not expect rate hike's real inflation to continue to exceed 2% before it is possible to bid farewell to QE</h2>This statementKeep reiteratingThe forward guidance on interest rates released last September said that the FOMC's \"committee'sThe goal will be to achieve inflation moderately above 2% for a period of time, so that the average inflation over time can reach 2%, and long-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%.In terms of inflation and financial environment, this statement deleted \"weaker demand and sharp drops in oil prices have lowered CPI inflation\" reiterated in the January statement, added the statement \"inflation continues to be below 2%\", and retained \"the overall financial environment The improvement partly reflects the rhetoric that policy measures support the economy and American families and individuals get credit.\"The dot plot released after the meeting showed that, like the last dot plot released in December last year, all Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged this year.Different from the last dot plot, this time, 4 people are expected to be in rate hike in 2022, one more than last time; This timeOf 18Seven people expect a rate hike in 2023, accounting for nearly 40%, 2 more than the last expected rate hike in 2023, and 6 out of 7 people expect the interest rate to exceed 0.5% by then.(If one rate hike is 25 basis points, it may be at least two rate hike on the current basis). As last time, longer beyond 2023, most Fed officials expect interest rates to rise to 2.5%, above the Fed's long-term target of 2%.<img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/b15a7cc1-8168-44a2-806a-429ba9803d9c.jpg\" tg-width=\"1222\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Powell said at a press conference after the meeting that most FOMC members of the Monetary Policy Committee did not expect a rate hike in 2023.When talking about the topic of inflation that the market is concerned about,Powell pointed out that the Fed is referring to the actual inflation rate and needs to see that the actual inflation \"substantially and consistently exceeds the 2% target\" rather than \"expected to exceed 2%\" before starting tightening policy。Powell said that the current QE bond purchases are appropriate and it is not yet time to discuss tapering bond purchases. \"The Fed needs to see substantial further progress towards its long-term 2% inflation and maximizing employment targets before considering shrinking balance sheet. Until we send the signal to consider shrinking balance sheet, you can assume we're not at shrinking balance sheet yet.\"<h2>Raised GDP growth forecast within two years and PCE inflation forecast within three years, lowered unemployment forecast</h2>The updated economic outlook data released after the meeting showed that the Federal Reserve raised its GDP growth forecast for this year and next, lowered its growth forecast for 2023, lowered its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and the next three years, and raised its unemployment rate forecast for this year, tomorrow, and The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCE) inflation rate for the next three years and core PCE inflation expectations excluding food and energy.According to the analysis, although the Federal Reserve has raised its nominal PCE and core PCE forecasts to 2.4% and 2.2% respectively for this year, both are expected to drop again to 2% next year, representing short-lived inflationary pressures.The median expected by Fed officials is:<ul><li>GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% and 3.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, which are 2.3 and 0.1 percentage points higher than the last expected growth rate announced in December last year. The expected GDP growth rate in 2023 has dropped from the last 2.4% to 2.2%.%.</li><li>The unemployment rate in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is expected to be 4.5%, 3.9% and 3.5%, respectively, down 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast.</li><li>PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.4%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.6, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li><li>Core PCE inflation expectations for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are 2.2%, 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively, an increase of 0.4, 0.1 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous expectation, respectively.</li></ul><img src=\"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ab19f2f8-b8b7-4b99-87d1-968dfcf203d8.jpg\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"286\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1d75a2b7a7bd95e0102711f4f871de","relate_stocks":{"TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3624126","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120213935","content_text":"从市场反应看，美联储本周三扮演了救世主。在美联储公布本周货币政策会议的决议后，联储主席鲍威尔讲话期间，美国三大股指昂首上扬，纳指更是抹平早盘1%以上的跌幅，携手标普转涨，创一年多新高的长期美债收益率短线回落，显示美债抛售势头暂时缓和。那么，美联储的会议声明和鲍威尔究竟说了什么？事实上，美联储并没有采取任何新的政策行动，不管是近零利率还是当前的每月QE购债规模，和今年1月的上次会议决策相比，都没有任何变化。在最近的经济展望中，美联储倒是上调了经济预期，尤其是今年的GDP增速预期，也上调了三年内的核心通胀预期，等于承认了更看好近两年美国经济复苏，预计通胀会更快回升，但联储根本没有表露近期要开始缩减QE的意愿，并且重申仍要保持当前购债的规模，直到经济有进一步的实质性进展。鲍威尔还明确表示，无需对近期美债收益率上升做任何反应。在介绍经济情况方面，本次会议声明继续重申，新冠疫情对美国及全球造成重大的经济困难，并称“在（经济）以温和步伐复苏后，经济活动和就业的指标最近已经回升，但疫情影响最为负面的一些行业仍疲软”，而今年1月的声明所说的是：“近几个月经济活动和就业复苏的步伐温和，疲软集中在最受疫情负面影响的行业。”在新冠疫情方面，和1月声明一样，本次声明也重申，“部分经济将严重依赖疫情发展形势”，并加上了“包括接种的进展”。本次声明依然认为，新冠疫情带来的公共卫生危机“继续施压经济活动、就业和通胀，并对经济前景构成重大风险。”再次重申保持购债 无需对美债收益率过度反应 即将官宣SLR决策本次会后声明再次重申去年12月上上次会后的购债指引，即联储“将增加所持的美国债券，至少每月购买800亿美元美国国债和400亿美元机构住房抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），直到对实现（货币政策）委员会的充分就业和价格稳定目标取得实质性的进一步进展为止。”声明中并没有任何未来可能改变上述购债指引的措辞，也没有提及全称银行补充杠杆率（supplementary leverage ratio）的SLR松绑政策。此次会议决议公布前，本周三当天，10年和30年期美债的收益率在美股早盘大幅攀升，创一年多来新高。评论称，这显示市场对美联储的决议感到紧张。市场关心美联储是否会就6月真正开始采取行动的前景给出线索，比如是否会采取措施避免伯南克任美联储主席时出现的缩减QE恐慌（Taper Tantrum），是否会重新起用卖出短期美债同时买入长期美债的扭转操作（Operation Twist）。在会后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔谈到过去一个月美债收益率显著蹿升时指出，重要的是金融状况继续保持宽松，总体而言，当前金融状况仍然高度宽松，因此“无需对过去一个月的美债收益率大幅上涨作反应”。鲍威尔表示，目前的QE购债政策是合适的，还不是开始讨论缩减债券购买力度的时机，如果美联储可能考虑缩减QE，将提前很久给出通知。美联储将对维持宽松政策保持耐心，直至完成职责：“美联储在考虑缩表之前，需要在实现2%的长期通胀和最大化就业目标方面看到实质性的进一步进展。在我们发出考虑缩表的信号之前，你可以假设我们还没到缩表的时候。”不过，他也重申本月早些时候的观点，即如果市场状况混乱，或是金融状况持续收紧威胁到美联储实现就业和通胀的双重目标，他会感到担忧。分析指出，之前市场猜测美联储是否会对美债收益率走高采取行动，例如暗示这种情况正在引发不受欢迎的金融状况收紧，这可能是美联储介入的前兆。但本周三鲍威尔显然没有如此承诺。对于市场广泛关注的SLR 豁免在3月31日到期后是否延续的问题，鲍威尔在问答环节表示，现在先不回答，马上要作正式宣布，“未来数日，我们将围绕SLR宣布最新通知。”SLR是一种商业银行的资本充足率指标。2007-09年金融危机后，为防范银行系统风险，美国重新修改SLR的相关规定，对美国大银行额外杠杆加以限制。去年新冠疫情爆发后，美联储加码货币宽松，被列入SLR计算的银行准备金大幅上升，为促进金融系统运作和经济复苏，美联储等监管部门决定放松SLR政策，将准备金及国债排除在SLR指标之外，便于存款机构买美债，这种放宽政策定于本月31日到期。SLR规定的改变可能会导致华尔街大型银行削减证券持仓和放贷。如果这一政策不能延长期限，可能引发市场抛售资产。上周纽约联储数据显示，截至3月3日一周，一级经纪商的美国国债持仓减少647亿美元，创单周最高降幅。此后评论称，正是因为更不确定松绑SLR能否延期，所以经纪商激进抛售美债。目前市场对于美联储的提前表态预期非常高。考虑到不豁免的潜在后果，摩根大通最近预计，美联储大概率将延长SLR豁免，认为准备金及国债的豁免都将延长。预计2023年加息官员增加但多数仍预期不加息 实际通胀持续超过2%才可能告别QE本次声明继续重申去年9月公布的利率前瞻指引，称FOMC“委员会的目标将是，在一段时间内实现通胀适度高于2%，以便让一段时间内的平均通胀达到2%，并且长期通胀预期仍很好地锚定在2%。在通胀和金融环境方面，本次声明删除了1月声明重申的“需求更疲软和油价大幅下跌拉低CPI通胀”，新增表述“通胀继续低于2%”，保留了“金融环境总体好转，部分反映出政策措施支持经济，美国家庭和个人得到信贷”的说辞。会后公布的点阵图显示，和去年12月上次发布的点阵图一样，所有美联储官员均预计今年利率保持不变，不同于上次点阵图的是，本次有4人预计2022年将加息，比上次多1人；本次18人中有7人预计2023年会加息，人数占比将近40%，比上次预期2023年加息者多2人，而且7人中有6人预计届时利率超过0.5%（若一次加息25个基点，即可能在当前基础上至少两次加息）。和上次一样，在2023年之后的更长时间内，多数联储官员预计利率会升至2.5%，高于联储长期目标2%。鲍威尔在会后的发布会上称，大多数货币政策委员会FOMC成员都没有预期2023年要加息。在谈到市场关注的通胀话题时，鲍威尔指出，美联储参考的是实际的通胀率，需要看到实际的通货膨胀“实质性且持续超过2%目标”，而不是“预期将超过2%”，而后才会开启紧缩政策。鲍威尔称，当前的QE购债是适合的，还没有到讨论缩减购债的时候。“美联储在考虑缩表之前，需要在实现2%的长期通胀和最大化就业目标方面看到实质性的进一步进展。在我们发出考虑缩表的信号之前，你可以假设我们还没到缩表的时候。”上调两年内GDP增速预期和三年内PCE通胀预期 下调失业率预期会后公布的更新后经济展望数据显示，美联储上调了今明两年的GDP增长预期，下调了2023年的增长预期，下调了今、明、后三年的失业率预期，上调了今、明、后三年的个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）通胀率以及剔除食品与能源的核心PCE通胀预期。分析称，虽然美联储将今年的名义PCE和核心PCE预期分别上调至2.4%和2.2%，但预计都将在明年重新降至2%，代表通胀压力短暂。美联储官员预计的中位值为：2021年和2022年GDP分别预计增长6.5%和3.3%，分别较去年12月公布的上次预期增速上调2.3和0.1个百分点，2023年的GDP预期增速从上次的2.4%降至2.2%。2021年、2022年和2023年失业率预期分别为4.5%、3.9%和3.5%，较上次预期分别下调0.5、0.3和0.2个百分点。2021年、2022年和2023年PCE通胀预期分别为2.4%、2.0%和2.1%，较上次预期分别上调0.6、0.1和0.1个百分点。2021年、2022年和2023年核心PCE通胀预期分别为2.2%、2.0%和2.1%，较上次预期分别上调0.4、0.1和0.1个百分点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"GOVT":0.9,"IEI":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"IEF":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"SHY":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"BND":0.9,"TLT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3821781,"gmtCreate":1616029648733,"gmtModify":1680780782765,"authorId":3569581951650623,"author":{"id":3569581951650623,"idStr":"3569581951650623","authorId":3569581951650623,"name":"赞我的今年账户翻十倍","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1d63378f07d4231f465c7cd27356410","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":324701149,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[开心]","text":"[开心]","html":"[开心]"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":27,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2120213935","isCrawlerRequest":true}