Stock-index futures hovered near unchanged Wednesday as investors awaited the outcome of an eagerly anticipated Federal Reserve meeting which may provide clues to the long-term path of monetary policy.
What are major benchmarks doing?
Stocks ended mostly lower Tuesday, with the Dow falling 127.51 points, or 0.4%, and the S&P 500 edging down 0.2% after closing at records in the previous session. The Nasdaq Composite held on to a gain of 0.1%.
What's driving the market?
The Fed isn't expected to make any tweaks to interest rates or asset purchases, but investors are eager to see the central bank's latest projections on the economic outlook and the forecast long-term path of interest rates in the so-called "dot plot". Expectations for a surge in economic growth as vaccine rollouts finally quell the pandemic and another $1.9 trillion round of COVID aid boosts spending have lifted inflation expectations.
Since the Fed last released forecasts in December, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes has risen by about 0.7 percentage points as investors have priced in higher interest rates and inflation. That in turn has contributed to a rotation away from previously highflying growth stocks toward more cyclically sensitive stocks.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell "is in a difficult spot, as he doesn't want to hike rates anytime soon but at the same time, he can't ignore the rise in yields and the increasing chatter that higher inflation is in the pipeline," said David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets, in a note.
"Mr. Powell will probably make it clear that the Fed won't be pushed around by the bond market and that it will stay the course with respect to its policy as its economic aims are far from being achieved," he said.
The Fed will release its policy statement at 2 p.m. Eastern, with Powell's news conference to follow at 2:30 p.m.
Other analysts agreed that the Fed was unlikely to change its tune.
"While the Powell Fed has become more forthcoming, that means that anything it does say will be acted on. So, unless the Fed wants markets to react, it has to revert to obscurity -- which is what I expect," said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network.
Besides, the Fed has consistently signaled it plans to keep current policy in place for some time, until the economy shows clear signs of above-trend growth and inflation, he said, in a note. "Of its two mandates, employment and inflation, the Fed is choosing to focus on employment (which is still well underwater) and not on inflation (which is not a problem)," McMillan wrote in a note.
February data on housing starts and building permits is due at 8:30 a.m. Economists look for starts to fall to a seasonally adjusted 1.75 million annualized rate from 1,886 million in January. Permits are seen falling to a 1.54 million pace from 1.58 million.
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