Upstart Stock Soars after Q4 Earnings Beat, Strong Guidance, Stock Buyback

Seeking Alpha2022-02-16

Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) stock surges 24% in after-hours trading after the AI lending software company announced a $400M stock buyback program, issued strong Q1 guidance, and posted better-than-expected Q4 results.

"With triple-digit growth and record profits, Q4 was an exceptional finish to a breakout year for Upstart (UPST)," said co-founder and CEO David Girouard. He also said "auto loan originations on our platform are now ramping quickly and will provide growth opportunities to Upstart for years to come."

The lending software company issued Q1 revenue guidance of $295M-$305M vs. consensus of $258.3M. The company expects Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $56M-$58M compared with $50.6M Visible Alpha consensus, and Q1 adjusted net income of $50M-$52M vs. $87M reported in Q4 2021.

It also sees contribution margin of ~46% in Q1 vs. 45.9% Visible Alpha consensus.

Q4 revenue of $305M compared with average analyst estimate of $262.9M; increased from $228M in Q3 and $86.7M in the year-ago quarter; total fee revenue of $287M rose from $210M in Q3 and $84.4M a year ago.

Q4 adjusted EPS rose to $0.89, beating the $0.51 consensus, from $0.60 in Q3 and $0.07 in Q4 2020.

During the quarter, UPST's bank partners originated 495,205 loans, totaling $4.1B across its platform and compared with 362,780 loans totaling $3.13B in Q3 2021.

Conversion on rate requests were 24% vs. 23% in Q3.

Conference call at 4:30 PM ET.

Earlier, Upstart (UPST) non-GAAP EPS of $0.89 beats by $0.38, revenue of $304.85M beats by $42M

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Comments

  • tigertitus
    2022-02-16
    tigertitus
    Is this a time to sell or hold?
  • Asphen
    2022-02-16
    Asphen
    Missed this one. Had wanted to sell put on it. 
  • Jess261
    2022-02-16
    Jess261
    Okay
  • SCLIEW
    2022-02-16
    SCLIEW
    666
  • BoonHuat
    2022-02-16
    BoonHuat
    Nice.
  • Blokk
    2022-02-16
    Blokk
    Nice!
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