DeepSeek令阿斯麦(ASML.US)雪上加霜？小摩绩前发布研报：看好2025年订单可见性

智通财经01-27

智通财经观察到，今日，美股科技股因市场对高估值的担忧而普遍下跌，英伟达、微软、谷歌、Meta等科技巨头股价均出现显著下滑。这一趋势与DeepSeek推出的低成本AI模型有关，该模型以极低的成本实现了与OpenAI o1相当的性能，引发市场对科技巨头AI投资回报率的质疑。阿斯麦作为半导体设备领域的龙头企业，也受到市场情绪的影响，股价承压，盘前跌超10%。在1月24日发布的研报中，摩根大通曾指出，影响...

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JPMorgan releases research report before results: optimistic about order visibility in 2025","themeId":"4f323adeb44ea1f7e6bef5a86b3ac7fd","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":1},"content_text":"智通财经观察到，今日，美股科技股因市场对高估值的担忧而普遍下跌，英伟达、微软、谷歌、Meta等科技巨头股价均出现显著下滑。这一趋势与DeepSeek推出的低成本AI模型有关，该模型以极低的成本实现了与OpenAI o1相当的性能，引发市场对科技巨头AI投资回报率的质疑。阿斯麦作为半导体设备领域的龙头企业，也受到市场情绪的影响，股价承压，盘前跌超10%。在1月24日发布的研报中，摩根大通曾指出，影响阿斯麦股价的关键因素是2026年的订单，这将体现在该公司2025年上半年的业绩中。摩根大通预计，阿斯麦的订单可见性将在2025年上半年逐渐清晰，这将为股价提供积极的催化剂。摩根大通维持“增持”评级，目标价1057欧元尽管市场情绪低迷，摩根大通在研报中仍维持对阿斯麦的“增持”评级，并将目标价定为1057欧元。这一目标价基于2026年预期每股收益的32倍市盈率，高于阿斯麦过去十年的平均市盈率（20-30倍），反映了对其未来两年高盈利增长的信心。2025年风险降低，订单可见性将逐渐清晰摩根大通指出，阿斯麦在2024年10月下调2025年业绩指引后，市场对其前景的悲观情绪已经充分反映在股价中。除非英特尔或三星等主要客户大幅削减资本支出，否则阿斯麦不太可能再次下调业绩指引。此外，2026年的订单将成为影响股价的关键因素，预计台积电、美光和海力士的支出将保持稳定甚至增加，订单可见性将在2025年上半年逐渐清晰，为股价提供积极催化剂。2024年Q4财报前瞻：订单或达30亿欧元对于周三即将公布的2024年第四季度财报，摩根大通预计阿斯麦Q4营收为90.01亿欧元，同比增长24.4%，环比增长20.5%。这一预测略低于市场普遍预期，但与公司指引一致。订单方面，摩根大通预计Q4订单为30亿欧元，较市场预期低14.4%，但认为阿斯麦只需20亿欧元的订单即可达到2025年业绩指引的中点。摩根大通预计，阿斯麦Q4毛利率为49.5%，略低于市场预期；息税前利润为30.54亿欧元，每股收益为6.63欧元。尽管短期盈利可能承压，但阿斯麦在高端光刻机市场的垄断地位和长期增长潜力仍使其成为半导体行业的核心投资标的。未来展望：AI与半导体需求驱动增长尽管当前市场情绪低迷，但AI和半导体需求的长期增长趋势未变。阿斯麦作为全球唯一能够生产极紫外光刻机（EUV）的公司，将在AI基础设施建设和半导体技术升级中持续受益。随着2025年订单可见性提升，阿斯麦有望迎来新一轮增长周期。尽管市场对科技股高估值的担忧导致近期股价波动，但阿斯麦的基本面依然稳固。摩根大通对其未来增长的信心以及2025年订单可见性的提升，为投资者提供了长期布局的机会。在AI和半导体需求驱动的背景下，阿斯麦仍具备显著的长期投资价值。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.30.2","shortVersion":"4.30.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2506327610"}