There is nothing like Palantir Technologies. No big company has a valuation even close to the high-growth cult software provider, whose stock soared almostn 40% in the past week, to a record high of $115, after it reported another strong quarter of earnings.
CEO Alex Karp said the company is deepening its "position at the center of the AI revolution," and bulls see it benefiting from Elon Musk's DOGE initiatives.
The stock now is up fivefold in the past year, valuing the company at $260 billion.
Palantir now commands about 70 times its projected 2025 sales of $3.75 billion and 200 times estimated 2025 adjusted earnings per share of about 55 cents. Strip out an estimated $600 million of stock compensation, and earnings could be closer to 30 cents a share.
The company sees revenue rising about 30% this year, as customers gravitate to its AI-infused software, which has paid off for companies like iron-ore giant Rio Tinto.
By comparison, Nvidia trades for 15 times estimated 2025 sales, while Microsoft and Apple are closer to 10 times sales.
Palantir has burned bears and humbled Wall Street analysts who felt the stock was too rich at half the current price. Only five of the 24 covering it maintain Buy ratings, according to Bloomberg.
"Fundamentals have been strong and we are constructive on the accelerating U.S. momentum, but CY25 revenue guide implies 31% growth vs 29% in CY24," wrote Jefferies analyst Brent Thill, who has an Underperform rating and a $60 price target on the shares. "PLTR would need to accelerate growth to 50% for four years and trade at 18x CY28E revenues just to hold its stock price."
It's going to take enormous growth to sustain Palantir's valuation.
MicroStrategy has its ardent fans -- and plenty of detractors. But its new convertible preferred offering seems to compensate investors handsomely for the risks of its Bitcoin-accumulation strategy.
The preferred stock amounts to a Bitcoin-secured security with a 9%-plus yield, a tantalizing level when most bank preferreds yield around 6% and junk bonds fetch about 7.5% on average.
The MicroStrategy perpetual preferred began trading on Thursday on the Nasdaq under the ticker STRK and finished the week around $87, below the face value of $100, resulting in a current yield of 9.2%. The 8% securities had been priced at $80 -- considerably below a price of $100 sought by MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor.
MicroStrategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, with some 471,000 coins now worth about $46 billion, sold 7.3 million of preferred shares while raising $563 million after fees to diversify its funding sources as it continues to buy more Bitcoin.
The company has negligible conventional earnings because its smallish software business produces little free cash flow and the Bitcoin stash yields nothing. MicroStrategy has no credit ratings from the major agencies. It was rated a low junk-grade B3 by Moody's last year before the rating was withdrawn in October.
But the agencies penalize asset-rich, earnings-poor companies like MicroStrategy, which last week said it wants to be known as Strategy.
The company's Bitcoin holdings are worth seven times its $6 billion of debt and preferred shares -- a big cushion. The company said last week its Bitcoin covers dividend payments on the preferred of around $60 million a year for 100 years even if the cryptocurrency drops 75%.
Investors also benefit from a conversion feature that allows them to swap each preferred share for one-tenth of a MicroStrategy common share. The conversion is out of the money now, but it has value given that it amounts to a perpetual call option on the common stock.
MicroStrategy isn't for everyone, but if investors are comfortable with Bitcoin, the preferred offers a nice yield plus a play on the common stock.
Superrich people are paying record prices for sports teams, but you don't have to be wealthy to find cheaper and more liquid plays in public markets. Madison Square Garden Sports and Atlanta Braves Holdings are prime examples.
MSG Sports owns the New York Knicks and Rangers, two of the most valuable teams in pro basketball and hockey. The shares trade around $205, valuing the company at just over $5 billion, including debt. That's less than half the combined estimated $11 billion value of the two teams, led by the Knicks at $7.5 billion, according to Forbes. The stock trades roughly where it stood in 2019.
Some investors would like to see CEO James Dolan and his family, who control the company via supervoting stock, take advantage of rising pro sports values by selling the company or partial stakes in the teams, and return that cash to shareholders. But the family doesn't appear eager to take any of those actions, and the stock suffers from a "Dolan Discount."
"It's an unbelievably frustrating stock," says Jon Boyar, president of Boyar Research. "There has been no payoff, but the teams are scarce assets, and their value has only gone up."
Problems go beyond ownership's reluctance to monetize the teams. The negatives include very modest earnings -- net income was less than $60 million in its fiscal year ended in June -- and no regular dividend. Financial trouble at the teams' cable broadcaster, MSG Networks, could result in a cut in broadcast rights paid to MSG Sports. And the Trump administration is proposing to end a tax break for buyers of pro sports teams that could cut the prices paid for them.
Boyar is bullish on MSG Sports nonetheless because of the cheap price of the stock relative to the teams' estimated value, and he sees the coming auction of the Boston Celtics, which may fetch $6 billion, as a potential catalyst. He values MSG Sports at more than $300 a share, up 50% from a recent $203.
A quicker payoff could come with Atlanta Braves Holdings. The Atlanta Braves' nonvoting shares $(BATRK)$ trade at $40 for a $2.5 billion valuation, against a nearly $3 billion Forbes estimate for the Braves' value, plus another estimated $500 million for the company's real estate development around the team's Truist Park. The Braves also happen to be one of the best-managed franchises in pro sports. Home attendance is among the best in baseball, at around three million a year, and the team draws from a huge market in the Southeast.
The team is controlled by 83-year-old John Malone, who has been cleaning up his complex media empire with two big deals in the past year, including the planned combination of his Liberty Broadband with Charter Communications. The Braves could be next -- and a deal might happen this year.
Boyar likes the Braves situation, and values the stock in the mid $50s. He also notes that Malone recently bought $1 million of Braves stock in the open market.
Who could buy the Braves? A billionaire or a consortium including private sports investment vehicles. You can buy it first.
Comments