特朗普汽车关税最大输家？高盛：日本车企利润或遭“腰斩”

华尔街见闻03-27

特朗普政府的关税政策，正在全球汽车行业掀起一场腥风血雨。而在这场零和博弈中，日本车企或成为最大输家。据央视此前报道，美国总统特朗普在周三签署行政令，宣布对所有进口汽车征收25%关税。相关措施将于4月2日生效。特朗普宣布汽车关税后，丰田、本田传统汽车厂商股价普遍下跌。根据高盛最新预测，若无法转嫁成本，丰田、本田等日本车企巨头的利润将遭“腰斩”，其中日产和马自达的营业利润跌幅可能高达66%和34%。更...

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Goldman Sachs: Japanese car companies' profits may be \"halved\"","themeId":"338ba1d0514368cf59fc90a460d90ac8","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"03160":0.6,"TM":0.9},"content_text":"特朗普政府的关税政策，正在全球汽车行业掀起一场腥风血雨。而在这场零和博弈中，日本车企或成为最大输家。据央视此前报道，美国总统特朗普在周三签署行政令，宣布对所有进口汽车征收25%关税。相关措施将于4月2日生效。特朗普宣布汽车关税后，丰田、本田传统汽车厂商股价普遍下跌。根据高盛最新预测，若无法转嫁成本，丰田、本田等日本车企巨头的利润将遭“腰斩”，其中日产和马自达的营业利润跌幅可能高达66%和34%。更严峻的是，日本经济已站在衰退边缘，汽车行业带动的“工资-物价良性循环”也将戛然而止。全球汽车业的“大逃杀”：日本车企首当其冲彭博数据显示，美国每年销售的汽车中46%依赖进口，而日本车企贡献了其中130万辆（另有40万辆在墨西哥生产）。汽车占日本对美出口的30%以上，美国市场更是消化了日本汽车总销量的46%。特朗普的关税政策直接掐住了日本经济的命脉。高盛分析师Kota Yuzawa的模型显示，若日本车企选择涨价以抵消关税（涨幅25%），销量将下滑8%-26%，利润的缩水幅度将达到6%（丰田）-59%（马自达）。但更极端的场景是：车企拒绝涨价，利润将直接崩塌——丰田损失5700亿日元，本田3500亿日元，日产1300亿亿日元，马自达600亿日元。这一后果将是灾难性的，根据高盛预测，这一情境下，截至2026年3月的财年，丰田营业利润下滑11%，本田下滑23%，日产下降66%直接腰斩，马自达下降34%，其中日产和马自达受到的影响相对较大，因为它们的出口组合主要来自加拿大和墨西哥。供应链“多米诺效应”，零部件商难逃一劫关税的冲击远不止整车。日本零部件巨头如电装和爱信对美出口的墨西哥/加拿大产零部件价值分别达2200亿日元和600亿日元。根据高盛预计，若25%关税落地，这两家企业的利润可能锐减550亿日元和150亿日元。丰田纺织（Toyota Boshoku）也警告，其墨西哥座椅缝制业务将遭受“重大打击”。尽管部分企业寄希望于墨西哥比索贬值或美国减税政策缓冲冲击，但分析指出，日本车企近年依靠海外利润推动的“涨薪潮”已注定终结——利润蒸发后，裁员和冻薪将成为唯一选择。日本经济“完美风暴”，从衰退到通缩轮回野村综合研究所经济学家Kiuchi Takahide测算，25%的汽车关税将直接拉低日本GDP至少0.2%，足以将日本推入衰退。更致命的是，汽车业曾是日本打破通缩循环的关键：通过海外利润反哺国内薪资增长。如今这一链条断裂，日本央行5月加息的概率也随之暴跌。日本内阁官房长官林芳正虽表态“密切关注事态”，但面对特朗普的贸易大棒，东京几乎无牌可打。外汇分析师指出，日本唯一能做的或许是推迟货币政策正常化，以应对即将到来的经济寒冬。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.11","shortVersion":"4.35.11","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2522039233","isCrawlerRequest":true}