Trump Tariffs Could Hit Wipe out China's U.S.-Bound Exports -- Market Talk

Dow Jones04-04

0927 GMT - Trump's additional tariffs on China could wipe out all $439 billion of its direct exports to the U.S., reducing China's nominal GDP by 2.3%, CreditSights analysts say. The 10% tariff on all U.S. trading partners and additional tariffs on other Asian countries could further squeeze Chinese exports by blocking shipments that are re-routed to the U.S., ratcheting up pressure on GDP growth, they say. Having factored that in, CreditSights keeps its 2025 China GDP growth forecast at 4.7%, expecting policymakers to step up support. A U.S. global slowdown would also weigh on Chinese exports. Its U.S. strategist has bumped the probability of a "U.S. market bear case (recession) scenario" to 35% from 20% on softening consumer sentiment, policy uncertainty, and inflation pressure. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 04, 2025 05:27 ET (09:27 GMT)

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The 10% tariff on all U.S. trading partners and additional tariffs on other Asian countries could further squeeze Chinese exports by blocking shipments that are re-routed to the U.S., ratcheting up pressure on GDP growth, they say. Having factored that in, CreditSights keeps its 2025 China GDP growth forecast at 4.7%, expecting policymakers to step up support. A U.S. global slowdown would also weigh on Chinese exports. Its U.S. strategist has bumped the probability of a \"U.S. market bear case (recession) scenario\" to 35% from 20% on softening consumer sentiment, policy uncertainty, and inflation pressure. 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