YU7发布：小米市值冲击1.6万亿，未来天花板在哪里？

公司研究室06-27

本文系基于公开资料撰写，仅作为信息交流之用，不构成任何投资建议。出品｜公司研究室文｜海川6月26日晚，小米集团举行新品发布会。会上，留足悬念的小米YU7正式公布售价：25.35万元起步。消息发布后，小米YU7在3分钟内大定（支付5000元定金，7天后自动锁定不可退）数据突破20万台，一小时大定突破28.9万台。“拿到这么多订单，我的心情很激动，远超过此前想象。”小米CEO雷军在发布会后接受采访时...

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ceiling?","themeId":"d5b3fe721afdf403f81b75ad9ad61f2b","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.9,"XIACY":0.6,"01810":1,"MIUmain":0.6,"HXXD.SI":0.6},"content_text":"本文系基于公开资料撰写，仅作为信息交流之用，不构成任何投资建议。出品｜公司研究室文｜海川6月26日晚，小米集团举行新品发布会。会上，留足悬念的小米YU7正式公布售价：25.35万元起步。消息发布后，小米YU7在3分钟内大定（支付5000元定金，7天后自动锁定不可退）数据突破20万台，一小时大定突破28.9万台。“拿到这么多订单，我的心情很激动，远超过此前想象。”小米CEO雷军在发布会后接受采访时兴奋地表示。当夜，小米集团美股ADR最大涨幅接近12%。不过，等到次日A/H股开盘后，无论是小米集团港股（01810.HK）本身，还是A股小米概念股，几乎全都是高开低走，收出阴线。显然，部分投资者选择了趁着小米新车发布利好，高位获利了结。有业内人士坦言，年初至今小米集团股价涨幅超过70%，空头未平仓量达3.49亿股，外资与内资博弈激烈，不少投资者都担忧YU7发布后小米股价见顶。事实上，自从2018年7月上市，资本市场对于小米集团的估值就一直存在很大争议。公司股价也随着这种争议的延续，出现大起大落。这一点，从小米集团股价月K线走势上看的特别清楚。回过头来看，资本市场对小米集团的定位，经历了三次跃迁。1.0时代（2018-2020）：硬件制造商标签。当时，市场对小米集团的核心认知是：“性价比手机厂商”，互联网服务占比不足10%。在此期间，小米ASP仅997元，且被诟病“组装厂”，技术壁垒薄弱。这一切，成为其价值评估的“瓶颈” ，市场对其PE锚定15-20倍。这段时间，小米股价从上市初的最高每股22.2港元，跌到10港元以下，最低触及8.28港元。据说，股价跌破发行价后，一位早期女股东指着雷军鼻子“骂”了个把小时。2.0时代（2021-2024）：技术驱动的智能制造跃迁。在此期间，小米高端手机ASP突破3500元（小米15起售价4499元），4000-5000元价位市占率22.6%；自研玄戒O1芯片、超级电机V8s（27200rpm）等技术专利超4万项。这种突破，让市场对小米估值锚出现转变：PE提升至25-30倍，对标科技硬件公司。于是，小米股价从10港元附近上行，来到35港元附近。3.0时代（2025至今）：全场景生态平台。2024年3月，小米汽车第一款车型SU7发布，公司互联网手机的光芒照进电动车现实。进入2025年后，随着小米SU7出货量上升，澎湃OS串联手机、汽车（SU7/YU7）、智能家居（9亿设备），实现人车家闭环。与此同时， 6.74亿MIUI用户行为数据训练HyperMind系统，实现服务精准推送。这种人车生态的升级，也带来市场对小米估值逻辑新的质变：从硬件PE转向“终端入口×生态服务×数据价值”的SaaS化模型（如互联网业务享30倍PE）。年初至今，借着中国资产重新估值的东风，小米集团成为海外资本与北水南下配置的重要对象，股价涨幅超过70%。高处不胜寒。随着小米股价的走高，部分投资者开始担忧小米股价见顶。YU7新车的发布，终于给他们带来一个逢高派发的机会。眼下，投资者对小米股价的担忧，主要源于短期技术面调整与未来业务风险。除了前期车辆安全事故阴影外，市场最担心的还是小米汽车交付能力：SU7积压订单超10万辆，原计划的工厂二期年中投产没能实现。YU7若共享产线，可能加剧交付延迟，引发退订风险（当前退订率约40%）。不过，不少观察人士表示：“YU7发布只是小米汽车阶段性压力测试。”投资者的这种担忧，并没有逆转小米集团长期增长逻辑：YU7作为SUV车型覆盖家庭用户，与SU7形成“轿车+SUV”双矩阵，大概率复制特斯拉Model 3/Y的增量逻辑（特斯拉双车策略推动2023年销量+38%）。这些观察人士认为，小米的终极战场不在单一产品销量，而在用生态黏性重构用户生活场景：当汽车成为移动的智能家居控制塔，手机化身健康管家，家电自动响应出行计划，这种“无感互联”体验的稀缺性，才是其挑战苹果、特斯拉的真正底牌。他们认为，在从“硬件流量入口”到“场景定义者”后，小米的下一个目标是成为“标准制定者”（如统一充电协议、OS开源）。果真如此，小米集团的估值，还有不小上升空间。有圈内人估算：小米集团当前市值1.54万亿港元（约1.41万亿元人民币），显著低于其分部加总估值2.13万亿元（手机5000亿+汽车2875亿+IoT 2400亿+互联网1.1万亿），因此，其合理价值区间在2.1-2.5万亿元。当然，上述估值是静态的，还需动态纳入产能风险折价（-15%）与技术突破溢价（+30%）。换句话说，小米集团未来的的估值天花板，应该在总市值3万亿左右。精彩回顾","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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