电厂 | 小米YU7上市再挑战Model Y？最大的变数是产能

电厂06-26

记者花子健编辑高宇雷雷军将YU7定位于特斯拉ModelY的挑战者，正如当时用小米SU7对标特斯拉Model 3一样。在硬件参数、产品力这种客观和主观因素叠加的层面上，雷军表达了小米YU7可以超过特斯拉ModelY的信心。早在5月22日小米YU7亮相的发布会上，雷军已经将小米YU7和特斯拉ModelY进行全面对比——后者还能领先的，也只剩下能耗管理了。“至于销量，就看发布后大家的感觉。”雷军在...

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The biggest variable is production capacity","themeId":"d3539852ca06df295e48e13d7e96264d","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.9,"TSLL":0.9,"KC":0.9,"01810":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"TSYW.SI":0.6},"content_text":"记者 花子健编辑 高宇雷雷军将YU7定位于特斯拉ModelY的挑战者，正如当时用小米SU7对标特斯拉Model 3一样。在硬件参数、产品力这种客观和主观因素叠加的层面上，雷军表达了小米YU7可以超过特斯拉ModelY的信心。早在5月22日小米YU7亮相的发布会上，雷军已经将小米YU7和特斯拉ModelY进行全面对比——后者还能领先的，也只剩下能耗管理了。“至于销量，就看发布后大家的感觉。”雷军在个人微博上说。在销量上超越ModelY是一件很困难的事情吗？在小米汽车之前，小鹏、蔚来都有对应的车型和ModelY同处一个级别，但他们仍然没有一款车型的销量可以超过ModelY。雷军和小米汽车或许有机会实现这一点。电厂获悉，和小米SU7上市前一样，在YU7上市前，小米已经和供应链、生态链企业、合作伙伴打好招呼，并发起了一轮“F码攻势”，号召合作伙伴支持小米YU7的首销销量。在今年之前，ModelY看似是一座短时间内难以逾越的高山——它连续两年成为全球乘用车单一车型销量冠军，并在今年第一季度仍然保持了这一头衔。不过，在如今的中国纯电动汽车市场，尽管ModelY还是像何小鹏说的那样“一枝独秀”，但在销量上超越它看起来已经不是遥不可及。ModelY焕新款带不起销量特斯拉的销售策略在中国市场难以奏效，这一点从ModelY改款后的销量变化就能看出来。综合懂车帝、易车和乘联会的统计数据，今年前5个月，ModelY在中国市场的零售销量是126643辆，月均销量为25328辆。对绝大部分造车新势力而言，这仍然是一个很高的数字。但对特斯拉来说，这个数据并不理想。在2024年同期，ModelY的月均零售销量高达33341辆。如果按照去年全年的数据计算，特斯拉ModelY的月均销量超过了4万辆。目前，凭借单一车型就能实现4万辆月均销量的只有比亚迪，但在ModelY的价格区间，还没有中国汽车公司能够做到这一点。比较之下，更能体现出今年特斯拉在中国市场销售ModelY的困难程度，这也给了中国汽车公司超越ModelY的机会。尤其是考虑到今年2月底特斯拉开始交付ModelY焕新款，这也是特斯拉的零售销量能够在3月达到48189辆，但在4月和5月就下降到了平均水平以下，分别只有19984辆和24770辆。这意味着ModelY焕新款并没有带动销量的增长。电厂获悉，为了尽快推动销量恢复增长——ModelY的焕新款仍然是主要的增长点，特斯拉已经要求职能部门人员深入到一线门店承担销售工作，并且还设置了销售目标。对小米YU7来说，这是一个难得的窗口期。从6月23日宣布小米YU7上市时间开始，雷军在个人微博上一直为小米YU7预热，发布的微博内容超过90%都和小米YU7有关。比起小米SU7，小米YU7在配置上更进一步，这是小米做产品的特点之一。在小米YU7上，800V碳化硅高压平台、激光雷达、700TOPS算力的英伟达Thor芯片、天际屏全景显示等全系标配，并不像小米SU7那样，激光雷达没有全系标配。小米YU7也并不像绝大部分新能源SUV车型那样把功能体验的重点放在“冰箱彩电大沙发”上。雷军在他的个人微博上说：“驾驶者的驾驶体验也应该被关注。小米YU7兼具运动性能和舒适性，不是一款普通的、平庸的方盒子SUV，而是一款豪华高性能SUV，兼顾日常使用的豪华、舒适需求，还有够用的大空间。”运动性能和大空间，也正是特斯拉ModelY成功的基础要素，加上卓越的主动和被动安全能力，特斯拉官方因此在特斯拉ModelY焕新款上市时的宣传文案中使用了“尽管对比”，而雷军的回复只有“好的”两个字。在电耗管理上，小米YU7和特斯拉ModelY还有细微差距。5月22日，小米YU7亮相的时候，雷军就介绍了小米YU7的Pro和Max版四驱车型续航能力分别是770km和760km，超过了ModelY的719km。不过，小米YU7两款车型的电池包容量分别为96.3kWh和101.7kWh，比ModelY的78.4kWh大得多，这就意味着ModelY在电耗管理上仍然处于领先水平。超越Model Y，YU7需要多少销量？在具体的产品体验上，小米YU7和ModelY具有各自的优势和特点，但在营销能力上，雷军无疑比特斯拉在中国市场更胜一筹。雷军在小米SU7上市时就将特斯拉Model 3作为唯一的直接竞争对手，几乎每一个产品功能的亮点宣传都围绕着特斯拉Model 3来进行，加上吸睛的外观设计和比Model 3还要低的售价，点燃了用户的购买热情。自去年3月底上市，到今年5月底，小米SU7的累计交付量超过25万辆，在总销量和连续多个月的单月销量上都超过了Model 3。如果以小米SU7上市作为参照，小米YU7要想实现销量超过ModelY的目标，难度显然不小。在亮相活动和上市前的预热中，雷军和小米汽车已经以特斯拉Model Y锚定了小米YU7的目标用户、产品定位和价格覆盖区间，价格超出预期的情况下，很容易建立起对特斯拉Model Y的优势。近期。一份来自小米汽车体验店的军令状显示，小米YU7上市首销72个小时内，单人锁单目标40辆。尽管这可能只是单个门店的单方面行为，但仍然可以从中看到小米对YU7的期待值非常高。在6月底之前，小米汽车的全国门店数量会突破350家。如果按照每个门店5名销售的配置，人均锁单40辆的目标，就意味着小米YU7的上市72小时锁单量可能接近7万辆。不同规模的门店配置的销售数量、地理位置和资料留存量都不同，以及消费者对SUV车型的偏爱，7万辆这个数字可能只会更大。对于ModelY而言，随着小米YU7的上市，短期销量面临压力。按照月均2.5万辆的销量来计算，特斯吗ModelY今年下半年的销量约为15万辆。雷军透露，小米YU7亮相后受到了空前关注，留资用户数是小米SU7技术发布后同期的3倍。北京博瑞汽车园的一家小米汽车销售门店销售人员预计，抢小米YU7的人会比小米SU7的人多，因为到店看车和要求试驾的客户都比之前要多。如果小米YU7的上市72小时锁单量超过7万辆，全年销量超过15万辆并不是没有可能。对小米汽车来说，现在最大的问题就是产能。小米汽车目前只有一座位于北京亦庄的工厂，小米SU7就是在这座工厂进行生产。今年3月，小米汽车将2025年全年交付目标从此前的30万辆提升至35万辆，一座工厂显然无法满足。不过，早在2024年7月25日，小米实际控制的小米景曦科技有限公司就以约8.42亿元竞得亦庄新城YZ00-0606街区0106地块工业项目国有建设用地使用权，并从7月26日就开始进行施工建设。北京市规划和自然资源委员会官网显示，这是小米智能制造产业基地二期项目，于今年4月22日完成验收。不过，该工厂的投产日期还没正式确定。结合小米汽车的产能提升规划，小米汽车一期工厂和二期工厂的年产能规划都是15万辆，合计30万辆。这两座工厂主要生产小米SU7和SU7Ultra、小米YU7，目前，小米汽车官网显示的小米SU7最快仍然需要33周才能交付，凸显了产能的不足。小米汽车已经在为第三座工厂做准备。2025年6月19日，小米景曦科技有限公司在北京亦庄新城的土地竞拍中脱颖而出，成功竞得一块面积达48.51万平方米的工业用地，成交价为6.35亿元。该地块紧邻小米汽车二期工程项目，或将作为小米汽车的三期工厂。不过，该地块尚未开始动工，也没有明确的投产时间表，预计在1年内也无法帮助产能提升。另外，虽然小米YU7和小米SU7都是基于小米的Modena平台开发，但YU7项目有90%的零部件都经过了重新开发，这就意味着小米YU7和小米SU7无论是在产线适配还是在生产工艺上都不一样，这将加大小米YU7产能爬坡的难度。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.35.12","shortVersion":"4.35.12","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2546736901","isCrawlerRequest":true}