This week's sell-off in U.S. stocks is little more than portfolio tinkering and does not necessarily signal the start of a bigger late-summer swoon.
That's according to Citigroup analyst Scott Chonert, who pushed out a note during Wednesday's market slide titled: "Is two days a trend?"
At the lows of the session the S&P 500 was only 1.9% off the record close hit last week. But the nature of the pullback made it feel much worse because so many popular momentum plays - most notably Palantir Technologies, at one point down nearly 20% in two days - were under severe pressure.
The rotation away from erstwhile big tech/AI-linked favorites left Citi "starting to field some questions as to what's behind the pressure," says Chronert. "Clearly, in our view, two days is not a trend, but the action does trigger some perspective."
For example, its important to juxtapose the latest dip of a few percentage points alongside the S&P 500's 32% rally from the April lows to the recent high. Indeed, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 had surged 45% over that period, encouraging some investors to take profits in tech and consider laggards elsewhere.
"The past two days' action points to more of a rotation effect as sector performance has varied, but in favor of traditionally defensive sectors such as real estate, staples, health care and utilities," says Chronert. Energy, materials and financials are also higher over the past two sessions, he noted.
Chronert stresses that the market's latest wobble is nothing special and that even a 5% drawdown is a "normal course of business." Furthermore, a 10% retreat is likely to need a particular trigger, he reckons, dismissing the market chatter about AI overspending and bubbles. "The news flow over the past two days does not point to anything particularly notable directly on the fundamental front."
Potential market catalysts to watch out for in coming months include Friday's speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which Chronert thinks will be "nothing particularly consequential" unless Powell takes a decidedly more hawkish turn.
Then, after Labor Day, Citi will hold its TMT Conference at which Chronert expects "generally positive commentary supporting AI tailwinds." After that there is likely to be a Fed rate cut in mid-September which should help stocks, though labor data ahead of that may set the tone.
And then October will see the third-quarter earnings season. But here Chronert is more wary, citing two main risks: "One is that the AI-affected stocks face a high bar as to incremental capex and related fundamental persistence. The other is that tariffs transition to a slightly higher headwind relative to Q2."
Still, additional Fed rate cuts into the year end should help the S&P 500 reach 6,600, he says. There is likely to be volatility but "we want to be prepared to buy into a more material draw down, should it unfold."
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