单季亏损超百亿，OpenAI的AI泡沫什么时候吹破？

投行村11-02

巨额资金在AI热潮中汹涌流动，但当泡沫破裂的声音响起，整个科技世界都将为之颤抖。微软最新财报意外泄露了OpenAI的财务底牌：这家明星AI公司单季度净亏损约115亿美元，几乎是其上半年43亿美元营收的三倍。与此同时，OpenAI却签下了与微软的2500亿美元云服务合同，以及总额高达1.5万亿美元的基建协议。一边是巨额亏损，一边是天价合同，马斯克直指OpenAI是骗子，这场AI狂欢似乎已走到了悬崖...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251102102605a4821ec1&s=b><strong>投行村</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>巨额资金在AI热潮中汹涌流动，但当泡沫破裂的声音响起，整个科技世界都将为之颤抖。微软最新财报意外泄露了OpenAI的财务底牌：这家明星AI公司单季度净亏损约115亿美元，几乎是其上半年43亿美元营收的三倍。与此同时，OpenAI却签下了与微软的2500亿美元云服务合同，以及总额高达1.5万亿美元的基建协议。一边是巨额亏损，一边是天价合同，马斯克直指OpenAI是骗子，这场AI狂欢似乎已走到了悬崖...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251102102605a4821ec1&s=b\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0265550359.USD","symbol_name":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) 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财务黑洞OpenAI的财务状况通过微软财报意外曝光，令市场一片哗然。微软对OpenAI的权益法投资导致单季度净利润减少31亿美元。按微软持有OpenAI约27%股权计算，这意味着OpenAI该季度净亏损高达115亿美元。若按税前损失和微软实际持股比例32.5%计算，OpenAI的实际亏损可能超过120亿美元。这一数字令人瞠目结舌，堪比某些国家的年度预算。更令人担忧的是，OpenAI的营收能力远远跟不上亏损速度。今年上半年，其营收仅为43亿美元，单季度亏损几乎是半年营收的三倍，这种烧钱速度在科技界实属罕见。02 烧钱机器OpenAI的烧钱速度不仅惊人，而且正在加速。微软财报显示，去年同期其因OpenAI投资产生的亏损为5.23亿美元，而今年已猛增至31亿美元。OpenAI的资金消耗速度在短短一年内增长了近五倍。这背后的原因是AI研发的天价成本。市场分析显示，OpenAI每赚1美元要花费约2.25美元，这种倒挂的商业模式难以持续。其2025年预计亏损至少140亿美元，到2028年亏损恐扩大至470亿美元。更加令人咋舌的是，OpenAI与各大科技巨头签下的基建合同总规模高达1.5万亿美元，包括5000亿美元的“星际之门”数据中心计划，以及与甲骨文单独签署的未来五年价值3000亿美元的云计算协议。03 谁是幕后推手？在这场AI豪赌中，大型科技公司既是推手也是靠山。微软已向OpenAI投入116亿美元，占其130亿美元承诺投资的绝大部分。但对微软而言，这笔损失尚在可承受范围内——其上季度净利润达277亿美元。科技巨头们为何如此慷慨？Meta创始人扎克伯格的话道破天机：“投入数千亿美元的风险，小于被边缘化的风险。”在AI领域，不投入的代价可能是被时代抛弃。微软、AMD、英伟达、博通等巨头参与入股或签约，这些协议本质上是一种“循环融资模式”，供应商通过认股权或投资方式为OpenAI的采购“先买单”，再从后续销售中实现回报。04 破裂的预警信号市场对AI泡沫的担忧并非空穴来风。Forbes资深市场撰稿人Peter Cohan提出了三种可能场景：“GenAI持续繁荣、软着陆估值有所下降，以及OpenAI破产场景——如果该公司无法筹集更多资金来资助其亏损业务，可能会突然拖累一切”。当前AI行业的风险集中度令人警惕。与2000年互联网泡沫时顶级科技股占标准普尔500指数的15%相比，如今所谓的“壮丽七股”占了该指数的三分之一以上。这种集中度加剧了风险。更令人担忧的是，许多AI初创企业的估值已完全脱离现实。数据显示，一些零收入、零产品、无具体计划的AI企业，如Figure AI、Safe SuperIntelligence及Thinking Machines Lab，估值仍分别达390亿、320亿及120亿美元，跻身“超独角兽”行列。05 OpenAI上市之谜为应对资金压力，OpenAI正在筹备上市，计划最早于2026年提交IPO申请。这将可能成为人类资本史上最大的一次融资事件之一。OpenAI计划以1万亿美元估值登陆资本市场。但OpenAI的IPO并非主动选择，而是被迫之举。知名科技产业评论人彭德宇指出：“OpenAI的现金流根本无法支撑这样的投入，而原有的融资渠道也几乎到头。”同时，OpenAI已完成重组计划，成立新的OpenAI Group PBC（公共利益公司），原先的非营利母公司持有26%的股权，微软持股27%，员工及其他投资者持有剩余47%。这一结构为其上市扫清了障碍。06 泡沫破裂的后果一旦OpenAI泡沫破裂，对纳斯达克的冲击不可小觑。与2000年互联网泡沫不同，当今科技股在市场中的占比更高，波动可能更加剧烈。如果AI概念的领头羊OpenAI出现问题，整个AI投资热潮可能迅速降温，引发科技股大幅回调。对A股市场而言，OpenAI泡沫破裂的直接影响有限，但心理冲击不可忽视。A股AI行情的核心驱动力是经济转型、产业链国产替代及政策支持。国务院已发布《关于深入实施“人工智能+”行动的意见》，推动AI与千行百业融合。A股企业将更多受国内AI应用落地进度影响，而非OpenAI一家之命运。07 危中之机泡沫破裂不全是坏事，它可能是行业健康的洗牌。历史上，互联网泡沫破裂后，真正有价值的公司如亚马逊、谷歌反而脱颖而出，成为科技巨头。OpenAI的IPO可能成为AI行业的试金石，推动市场关注点从概念炒作转向真实盈利能力。对投资者而言，短期可能因估值分歧引发市场波动，但长期来看，只要AI技术持续突破、商业化落地稳步推进、企业盈利能力实质改善，这场由技术创新驱动的牛市就仍具备坚实的基础。在产业革命的中途，保持战略定力，聚焦产业发展的实质进展，才是明智之举。OpenAI首席执行官奥特曼在回应质疑时表示，他真正想要的是“在宇宙中留下印记”。但在华尔街，投资者们更关心的是在自己的账户里留下真金白银。当微软都能承受OpenAI的巨额亏损，当扎克伯格认为“投入数千亿美元的风险，小于被边缘化的风险”。这场AI狂欢或许还会继续，直到最后一刻。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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