马斯克“暴论”最新版：提前给手机判死刑，AI和机器人是唯一出路

华尔街见闻11-03

聊AI，谈机器人、星舰，也回应了很多争议，马斯克最新访谈来了。不久前，马斯克做客Joe Rogan的访谈节目，近3个小时的时间，没有提词器，全程即兴对话。在对话中，马斯克第一次把AI机器人、星舰和社交平台这三项业务放在同一条叙事线上，给了宏大叙事一个激进的未来。马斯克预测未来5-6年，传统手机与App将彻底消失，人们消费的大部分内容（音乐、视频等）都将由 AI 生成，届时的手机会成为“人工智能...

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生成，届时的手机会成为“人工智能推理的边缘节点”。\n还预测AI将在2026年超越单个人类智商，2030年超越全人类智慧总和，未来机器人和AI不是“未来产业选择”，而是“维持社会运转能力所必须的工具”。\n“唯一能让美国摆脱债务危机、避免破产的办法，就是发展人工智能和机器人。”\n\n复盘整场对话，其实谈及最核心的汽车业务并不多，更多的则更像是在描绘一个未来社会的“操作系统”安装手册。\n虽然抽象，但谁又能保证这不会是未来世界的终局之一呢。\n变革即将袭来\n“未来不会有操作系统，不会有APP，你的手机只是显示像素和发出声音，它预测你最想看到和听到什么，然后实时生成，我们会尽可能地将AI集成到这个设备中。”\n马斯克认为，未来不会再有传统意义上的手机了，“我们所谓的手机，实际上是一个用于AI推理的边缘节点，配备一些通讯模块进行连接。”本质上可以理解为服务器端的AI会与用户设备上的AI进行通信，并生成用户想要的任何实时视频。\n\n言外之意，未来人类所需的信息都将通过人工智能获取，并且给出了一个明确的时间节点——5、6年后，甚至会更早。\n值得一提的是，OpenAI正在和苹果前首席设计师乔尼·艾夫合作开发一种口袋大小的无屏设备，可本地运行AI模型并依托云端完成复杂任务，与马斯克描述的“AI推理边缘节点”高度契合。\n另外，马斯克还给出了AI发展的明确时间线：2026年AI智商将超越单个人类，2030年则会超越全人类智慧总和。\n未来AI和机器人就像 “超音速海啸”，对职业的替代已进入倒计时：邮件处理、电话客服等桌面工作正快速消失，编程、内容创作等领域将在1-2年内迎来大规模替代，驾驶、物流等职业会随自动驾驶成熟而转型，仅焊接、烹饪等物理劳动能留存更久，但最终也将被机器人取代。\n在马斯克看来，工作将逐渐从“生存需要”变成“自我选择”，因为人类将拥有由机器人与 AI 构成的生产体系。\n但同时也会带来一个必然的问题——接踵而至的失业浪潮。\n这是从“全民基本收入”提升到“全民高收入”过程，每个人都能获得自己需要的商品和服务，不必为了维持生存而被动工作。\n当然，“机器人不是为了取代人，而是为了让社会不崩溃”。如果没有机器人，劳动力缺口会使生产能力下降，税基萎缩，福利系统失去资金来源，从而引发财政危机和社会不稳定。\n而如果由机器人承担基础生产和服务性劳动，人类就可以保持较高福祉水平，并将创造力投入到科技、文化、教育和探索领域中。\n这也是马斯克为什么认为机器人和 AI 并不是“未来产业选择”，而是“维持社会运转能力所必须的工具”的关键原因之一。\n\n马斯克认为，未来有很多可能性，其中也包括了“终结者场景”（AI 毁灭人类），“这种概率不会是 0%”，所以人类需要的是一个极致求真，好奇，平等的的看待所有生命AI。“我认为一个好奇、求真的AI会想要促进人类发展，因为我们比一堆石头有趣得多。”\n还举了一个例子，人类可以去消灭所有大猩猩，但这并没有发生，我们确实侵占了它们的环境，但我们实际上试图保护黑猩猩和大猩猩的栖息地。\n基于此，马斯克认为在好的情景下，AI也会对人类做同样的事情。它“会促进人类文明发展，关心人类的幸福。我认为这是我们应该努力实现的目标。”\n不过在马斯克看来，在所有主流AI中，Grok是唯一平等看待所有人类生命的AI系统。\n其强调，AI 的问题不是动机问题，而是可控性问题，人工智能最核心的问题不在于其能否变得更聪明，而在于当其能力足够强时，人类是否仍然能够决定它做什么。\n\n他指出，当一个系统可以自动优化自身模型和参数时，它将不再依赖人类手动调整训练方式。由此带来的风险并非“AI会产生恶意”，而是人类无法再预测其行为方式。\n因此，马斯克认为“安全的 AI”必须能够接受人类的外部约束，而不是仅依赖训练数据来推断“人类价值”。\n他还强调为了保持 AI 的可控性，人类需要保留一种“停止按钮”——一种即使在系统能力远超人类的情况下，仍然能够由人类决定系统是否继续运行的机制。如果这一机制缺失，那么模型一旦进入自我改进循环，其行为可能在很短时间内超出人类理解范围。\n向新世界迈进的载体\n在这次对话中，除了AI和机器人，马斯克没有分别谈论火箭、汽车等业务，而是把 SpaceX、Tesla放在同一个体系下阐述——在马斯克看来，这两者都是未来世界中不可或缺的部分。\n这次访谈中，马斯克将人类文明的现状比作电子游戏最高难度关卡：“我们正在这个‘游戏’中迎来最关键的关卡：要么通过AI和技术实现前所未有的富足，要么在意识形态和谎言中走向文明崩溃。”\n面对这一关键转折点，他提出了明确的操作指南，“你必须探索边界——把东西推到失败才能知道极限在哪。”在其看来，这不仅适用于星舰的研发，也是文明进步的基本逻辑。\n\n在星舰的研发过程中，马斯克透露道，自己会有意让它处于比我们预期正常飞行更糟糕的飞行状态，比如，他们故意移除最关键位置的隔热瓦以观察“如果我们在那里失去一块隔热瓦片，是灾难性的还是非灾难性的？“\n而所有这些研发过程的最终目标，是实现火箭的完全可重复使用。\n马斯克解释了为什么传统航天模式无法规模化。如果每次飞行结束后都要让飞机坠毁，再重新造一架，那么航空业根本无法存在。长期以来，火箭就是在这种逻辑下运行的。发射一次，坠毁一次，重新制造一次，而制造本身的成本与周期决定了航天只能以国家为单位承担，无法形成商业规模。\n这样来看，马斯克口中的”可重复性“并不是一个简单的技术提升，而是改变航天经济模式的前提。\n如果 Starship 的完全重复使用得以实现，发射成本将从过去的“每次数亿美元”下降到“每次数十万到数百万美元级别”。而这种差距，将决定人类是否能够像使用港口、机场那样使用太空。\n\n在马斯克的表述中，特斯拉汽车与Space X并不是两个项目，而是同一个逻辑链条下的两种载体——一个发生在地面，一个发生在外太空，它们都试图用工程可验证的方式把“未来”变为现实世界可以触摸的物体。\n这个想法是马斯克的一个儿子萨克森（Saxon）提出“为什么我们仍像生活在2015年”的问题时，产生了这样的思考。\n在其看来，汽车不仅是交通工具，更是“时代精神的外观”，这也是为什么Cybertruck频频跳票，还要坚持将其造出来的原因。\n“市场上已经有足够多的“正常汽车”，而Tesla 的目的不是在现有范式中做一台更好的车，而是推动汽车从传统工业产品向下一时代的技术表达形式过渡。”\n马斯克将之描述为“让未来真正进入现实世界”，而不是停留在概念图、影视作品或实验性展示中。\n紧接着，马斯克提到了 Tesla Roadster 的下一代产品。他称即将到来的新 Roadster 将会是一次“非常具象、非常直接的颠覆性发布”，亮相的时间，马斯克透露可能会在今年年底之前。\n并强调“它看起来像一辆车。但它比詹姆斯·邦德的任何汽车都更疯狂。如果你把所有詹姆斯·邦德的汽车加在一起，它也比那些更疯狂。”甚至还不排除飞行汽车的可能性。\n毕竟在访谈中，马斯克并没有否认“飞行Roadster”的可能性。\n本文来源：超电机器人，原文标题：《马斯克“暴论”最新版：提前给手机判死刑，AI和机器人是唯一出路》风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":496268257174440,"gmtCreate":1762181747350,"gmtModify":1762181750214,"author":{"id":"3524525397197596","authorId":"3524525397197596","name":"非流顿牛体","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/09ed65bb9b4f57bf28a2370381f34b78","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3524525397197596","idStr":"3524525397197596"},"htmlText":"🤡","listText":"🤡","text":"🤡","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/496268257174440","repostId":2580130902,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2580130902","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1762175410,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2580130902?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2025-11-03 21:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The latest version of Musk's \"Violent Theory\": Death sentence for mobile phones in advance, AI and robots are the only way out","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2580130902","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"马斯克最新访谈预言：未来5-6年传统手机将消失，内容由AI实时生成。他预测2026年AI智商将超越单个人类，2030年超越全人类智慧总和。强调AI和机器人不是产业选择，而是维持社会运转的必需工具，是解决美国债务危机的唯一出路。","content":"<p><html><body>Talking about AI, talking about robots, and starships, we also responded to a lot of controversies. Musk's latest interview is here.</p><p>Not long ago, Musk was a guest on Joe Rogan's talk show. For nearly 3 hours, there was no teleprompter, and the whole process was impromptu. In the conversation, Musk put the three businesses of AI robots, starships and social platforms on the same narrative line for the first time, giving the grand narrative a radical future.</p><p>Musk predicts that in the next 5-6 years, traditional mobile phones and apps will completely disappear, and most of the content people consume (music, videos, etc.) will be generated by AI. At that time, mobile phones will become the \"edge node of artificial intelligence reasoning.\"</p><p>It is also predicted that AI will surpass the IQ of a single human in 2026 and the sum of the wisdom of all mankind in 2030. In the future, robots and AI will not be \"future industrial choices\", but \"tools necessary to maintain the ability of society to function.\"</p><p>\"The only way to get the United States out of the debt crisis and avoid bankruptcy is to develop artificial intelligence and robots.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3679bfb5-aa9c-45df-87d3-dcbbbea36057.jpeg\" title=\"\"/></p><p>Reviewing the entire conversation, in fact, there are not many talks about the core automobile business, but more like describing the \"operating system\" installation manual of a future society.</p><p>Although abstract, who can guarantee that this will not be one of the endgames of the future world?</p><p><h2>Change is coming</h2>\"In the future, there will be no operating system, no APP. Your phone just displays pixels and makes sounds. It predicts what you want to see and hear most, and then generates it in real time. We will integrate AI into this device as much as possible. in.\"</p><p>Musk believes that there will be no more mobile phones in the traditional sense in the future. \"What we call a mobile phone is actually an edge node for AI reasoning, equipped with some communication modules to connect.\" Essentially, it can be understood that the server-side AI will communicate with the AI on the user's device and generate any real-time video the user wants.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1a0b788b-b2c8-4439-ab14-3900b96e5860.jpeg\" title=\"\"/></p><p>The implication is that all the information needed by human beings in the future will be obtained through artificial intelligence, and a clear time node is given-5 or 6 years later, or even earlier.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that OpenAI is working with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Former chief designer Joni Ive cooperated to develop a pocket-sized screenless device that can run AI models locally and rely on the cloud to complete complex tasks, which is highly consistent with the \"AI inference edge node\" described by Musk.</p><p>In addition, Musk also gave a clear timeline for the development of AI: in 2026, the IQ of AI will surpass that of a single human, and in 2030, it will surpass the sum of the wisdom of all mankind.</p><p>In the future, AI and robots will be like a \"supersonic tsunami\", and the replacement of occupations has entered the countdown: desktop jobs such as email processing and telephone customer service are rapidly disappearing, and fields such as programming and content creation will usher in large-scale replacement within 1-2 years. Occupations such as driving and logistics will transform as autonomous driving matures. Only physical labor such as welding and cooking can last longer, but they will eventually be replaced by robots.</p><p>In Musk's view, work will gradually change from \"survival needs\" to \"self-selection\" because humans will have a production system composed of robots and AI.</p><p>But at the same time, it will also bring an inevitable problem-the ensuing wave of unemployment.</p><p>Here's the one from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>In the process of upgrading \"basic income\" to \"universal high income\", everyone can get the goods and services they need, and they don't have to work passively to survive.</p><p>Of course, \"robots are not designed to replace people, but to keep society from collapsing\". Without robots, the labor gap will reduce production capacity, shrink the tax base, and lose the funding source of the welfare system, thus triggering financial crisis and social instability.</p><p>If robots undertake basic production and service labor, human beings can maintain a high level of well-being and invest their creativity in the fields of science and technology, culture, education and exploration.</p><p>This is one of the key reasons why Musk believes that robots and AI are not \"future industry choices\" but \"tools necessary to maintain the ability of society to function.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/bb535a1d-60f2-40cc-9f6d-cac0ce5c6ee3.jpeg\" title=\"\"/></p><p>Musk believes that there are many possibilities in the future, including the \"Terminator Scenario\" (AI destroying human beings), \"this probability will not be 0%\", so what human beings need is an extremely truth-seeking, curious, and equal Look at all life AI. \"I think a curious, truth-seeking AI would want to promote human development because we are better than a bunch of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688169\">stone</a>Much more interesting. \"</p><p>An example was also given that humans could go and wipe out all gorillas, but that didn't happen, we did encroach on their environment, but we actually tried to protect chimpanzees and gorilla habitats.</p><p>Based on this, Musk believes that under a good scenario, AI will do the same thing to humans. It \"will promote the development of human civilization and care for human happiness. I think this is the goal we should strive to achieve.\"</p><p>However, in Musk's view, among all mainstream AIs, Grok is the only AI system that treats all human lives equally.</p><p>It emphasizes that the problem of AI is not a problem of motivation, but a problem of controllability. The core problem of artificial intelligence is not whether it can become smarter, but whether humans can still decide what it does when its ability is strong enough.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/efab2827-1639-4bec-9080-6380bbcd2bf3.jpeg\" title=\"\"/></p><p>He pointed out that when a system can automatically optimize its own models and parameters, it will no longer rely on humans to manually adjust training methods. The resulting risk is not that \"AI will be malicious\", but that humans can no longer predict its behavior.</p><p>Therefore, Musk believes that \"safe AI\" must be able to accept external constraints of humans, rather than relying solely on training data to infer \"human values.\"</p><p>He also emphasized that in order to maintain the controllability of AI, humans need to retain a \"stop button\"-a mechanism that allows humans to decide whether the system will continue to operate even when the system's capabilities far exceed those of humans. If this mechanism is missing, once the model enters a self-improvement cycle, its behavior may be beyond human understanding in a short time.</p><p><h2>To<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>The carrier of progress</h2>In this conversation, apart from AI and robots, Musk did not talk about rockets, automobiles and other businesses separately, but put SpaceX,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Put it under the same system-in Musk's view, both are indispensable parts of the future world.</p><p>In this interview, Musk compared the current situation of human civilization to the most difficult level of video games: \"We are ushering in the most critical level in this'game ': either to achieve unprecedented prosperity through AI and technology, or to achieve ideology and The collapse of civilization in lies.\"</p><p>Faced with this critical turning point, he put forward a clear operating guide, \"You must explore boundaries-push things to failure to know where the limit is.\" In his view, this is not only applicable to the research and development of starships, but also the basic logic of civilization and progress.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/03e5ee56-5e8e-42b6-a166-2c7c45ff7645.jpeg\" title=\"\"/></p><p>During the development of the Starship, Musk revealed that he would deliberately keep it in a worse flight condition than we expected normal flight. For example, they deliberately removed the insulation tiles at the most critical locations to observe \"if we are there Is losing an insulation tile catastrophic or non-catastrophic?\"</p><p>The ultimate goal of all these research and development processes is to achieve complete reusability of rockets.</p><p>Musk explains why tradition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000901\">aerospace</a>Patterns cannot be scaled. If you have to crash the plane after every flight and build another one, then the aviation industry simply can't exist. For a long time, rockets have operated under this logic. Launch once, crash once, re-manufacture once, and the cost and cycle of manufacturing itself determine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00031\">aerospace</a>It can only be undertaken by the state and cannot form a commercial scale.</p><p>From this perspective, the \"repeatability\" in Musk's mouth is not a simple technological improvement, but a prerequisite for changing the aerospace economic model.</p><p>If full reuse of Starship is realized, launch costs will drop from \"hundreds of millions of dollars per time\" in the past to \"hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars per time\". And this gap will determine whether human beings can use space like ports and airports.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/8a885c74-dd09-4647-a23b-a777a02cebc2.jpeg\" title=\"\"/></p><p>In Musk's statement, Tesla Motors and Space X are not two projects, but two carriers under the same logical chain-one takes place on the ground and the other takes place in outer space. They both try to use engineering verifiable ways to turn the \"future\" into an object that can be touched in the real world.</p><p>This idea came about when one of Musk's sons, Saxon, asked the question \"Why are we still living like 2015?\"</p><p>In his view, cars are not only means of transportation, but also \"the appearance of the spirit of the times\", which is why Cybertruck frequently jumps tickets and insists on building them.</p><p>\"There are already enough\" normal cars \"on the market, and Tesla's purpose is not to make a better car in the existing paradigm, but to promote the transition of cars from traditional industrial products to the technological expression of the next era.\"</p><p>Musk described it as \"letting the future truly enter the real world\" rather than staying in concept maps, film and television works, or experimental displays.</p><p>Immediately afterwards, Musk mentioned the next generation of Tesla Roadster. He called the upcoming new Roadster a \"very concrete and very direct disruptive release\", and Musk revealed that it may be unveiled before the end of this year.</p><p>And stressed that \"it looks like a car. But it's crazier than any James Bond car. If you add all the James Bond cars together, it's also crazier than those.\" Not even ruling out the possibility of flying cars.</p><p>After all, in the interview, Musk did not deny the possibility of \"flying Roadster\".</p><p><span>Source of this article: Super Electric Robot, original title: \"The latest version of Musk's\" Violent Theory \": Death sentence for mobile phones in advance, AI and robots are the only way out\"</span></p><p><div>Risk warning and disclaimer clause</div><div>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</div></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The latest version of Musk's \"Violent Theory\": Death sentence for mobile phones in advance, AI and robots are the only way out</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe latest version of Musk's \"Violent Theory\": Death sentence for mobile phones in advance, AI and robots are the only way out\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2025-11-03 21:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>Talking about AI, talking about robots, and starships, we also responded to a lot of controversies. Musk's latest interview is here.</p><p>Not long ago, Musk was a guest on Joe Rogan's talk show. For nearly 3 hours, there was no teleprompter, and the whole process was impromptu. In the conversation, Musk put the three businesses of AI robots, starships and social platforms on the same narrative line for the first time, giving the grand narrative a radical future.</p><p>Musk predicts that in the next 5-6 years, traditional mobile phones and apps will completely disappear, and most of the content people consume (music, videos, etc.) will be generated by AI. At that time, mobile phones will become the \"edge node of artificial intelligence reasoning.\"</p><p>It is also predicted that AI will surpass the IQ of a single human in 2026 and the sum of the wisdom of all mankind in 2030. In the future, robots and AI will not be \"future industrial choices\", but \"tools necessary to maintain the ability of society to function.\"</p><p>\"The only way to get the United States out of the debt crisis and avoid bankruptcy is to develop artificial intelligence and robots.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/3679bfb5-aa9c-45df-87d3-dcbbbea36057.jpeg\" title=\"\"/></p><p>Reviewing the entire conversation, in fact, there are not many talks about the core automobile business, but more like describing the \"operating system\" installation manual of a future society.</p><p>Although abstract, who can guarantee that this will not be one of the endgames of the future world?</p><p><h2>Change is coming</h2>\"In the future, there will be no operating system, no APP. Your phone just displays pixels and makes sounds. It predicts what you want to see and hear most, and then generates it in real time. We will integrate AI into this device as much as possible. in.\"</p><p>Musk believes that there will be no more mobile phones in the traditional sense in the future. \"What we call a mobile phone is actually an edge node for AI reasoning, equipped with some communication modules to connect.\" Essentially, it can be understood that the server-side AI will communicate with the AI on the user's device and generate any real-time video the user wants.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/1a0b788b-b2c8-4439-ab14-3900b96e5860.jpeg\" title=\"\"/></p><p>The implication is that all the information needed by human beings in the future will be obtained through artificial intelligence, and a clear time node is given-5 or 6 years later, or even earlier.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that OpenAI is working with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>Former chief designer Joni Ive cooperated to develop a pocket-sized screenless device that can run AI models locally and rely on the cloud to complete complex tasks, which is highly consistent with the \"AI inference edge node\" described by Musk.</p><p>In addition, Musk also gave a clear timeline for the development of AI: in 2026, the IQ of AI will surpass that of a single human, and in 2030, it will surpass the sum of the wisdom of all mankind.</p><p>In the future, AI and robots will be like a \"supersonic tsunami\", and the replacement of occupations has entered the countdown: desktop jobs such as email processing and telephone customer service are rapidly disappearing, and fields such as programming and content creation will usher in large-scale replacement within 1-2 years. Occupations such as driving and logistics will transform as autonomous driving matures. Only physical labor such as welding and cooking can last longer, but they will eventually be replaced by robots.</p><p>In Musk's view, work will gradually change from \"survival needs\" to \"self-selection\" because humans will have a production system composed of robots and AI.</p><p>But at the same time, it will also bring an inevitable problem-the ensuing wave of unemployment.</p><p>Here's the one from \"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>In the process of upgrading \"basic income\" to \"universal high income\", everyone can get the goods and services they need, and they don't have to work passively to survive.</p><p>Of course, \"robots are not designed to replace people, but to keep society from collapsing\". Without robots, the labor gap will reduce production capacity, shrink the tax base, and lose the funding source of the welfare system, thus triggering financial crisis and social instability.</p><p>If robots undertake basic production and service labor, human beings can maintain a high level of well-being and invest their creativity in the fields of science and technology, culture, education and exploration.</p><p>This is one of the key reasons why Musk believes that robots and AI are not \"future industry choices\" but \"tools necessary to maintain the ability of society to function.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/bb535a1d-60f2-40cc-9f6d-cac0ce5c6ee3.jpeg\" title=\"\"/></p><p>Musk believes that there are many possibilities in the future, including the \"Terminator Scenario\" (AI destroying human beings), \"this probability will not be 0%\", so what human beings need is an extremely truth-seeking, curious, and equal Look at all life AI. \"I think a curious, truth-seeking AI would want to promote human development because we are better than a bunch of<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688169\">stone</a>Much more interesting. \"</p><p>An example was also given that humans could go and wipe out all gorillas, but that didn't happen, we did encroach on their environment, but we actually tried to protect chimpanzees and gorilla habitats.</p><p>Based on this, Musk believes that under a good scenario, AI will do the same thing to humans. It \"will promote the development of human civilization and care for human happiness. I think this is the goal we should strive to achieve.\"</p><p>However, in Musk's view, among all mainstream AIs, Grok is the only AI system that treats all human lives equally.</p><p>It emphasizes that the problem of AI is not a problem of motivation, but a problem of controllability. The core problem of artificial intelligence is not whether it can become smarter, but whether humans can still decide what it does when its ability is strong enough.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/efab2827-1639-4bec-9080-6380bbcd2bf3.jpeg\" title=\"\"/></p><p>He pointed out that when a system can automatically optimize its own models and parameters, it will no longer rely on humans to manually adjust training methods. The resulting risk is not that \"AI will be malicious\", but that humans can no longer predict its behavior.</p><p>Therefore, Musk believes that \"safe AI\" must be able to accept external constraints of humans, rather than relying solely on training data to infer \"human values.\"</p><p>He also emphasized that in order to maintain the controllability of AI, humans need to retain a \"stop button\"-a mechanism that allows humans to decide whether the system will continue to operate even when the system's capabilities far exceed those of humans. If this mechanism is missing, once the model enters a self-improvement cycle, its behavior may be beyond human understanding in a short time.</p><p><h2>To<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600628\">New World</a>The carrier of progress</h2>In this conversation, apart from AI and robots, Musk did not talk about rockets, automobiles and other businesses separately, but put SpaceX,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Put it under the same system-in Musk's view, both are indispensable parts of the future world.</p><p>In this interview, Musk compared the current situation of human civilization to the most difficult level of video games: \"We are ushering in the most critical level in this'game ': either to achieve unprecedented prosperity through AI and technology, or to achieve ideology and The collapse of civilization in lies.\"</p><p>Faced with this critical turning point, he put forward a clear operating guide, \"You must explore boundaries-push things to failure to know where the limit is.\" In his view, this is not only applicable to the research and development of starships, but also the basic logic of civilization and progress.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/03e5ee56-5e8e-42b6-a166-2c7c45ff7645.jpeg\" title=\"\"/></p><p>During the development of the Starship, Musk revealed that he would deliberately keep it in a worse flight condition than we expected normal flight. For example, they deliberately removed the insulation tiles at the most critical locations to observe \"if we are there Is losing an insulation tile catastrophic or non-catastrophic?\"</p><p>The ultimate goal of all these research and development processes is to achieve complete reusability of rockets.</p><p>Musk explains why tradition<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000901\">aerospace</a>Patterns cannot be scaled. If you have to crash the plane after every flight and build another one, then the aviation industry simply can't exist. For a long time, rockets have operated under this logic. Launch once, crash once, re-manufacture once, and the cost and cycle of manufacturing itself determine<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00031\">aerospace</a>It can only be undertaken by the state and cannot form a commercial scale.</p><p>From this perspective, the \"repeatability\" in Musk's mouth is not a simple technological improvement, but a prerequisite for changing the aerospace economic model.</p><p>If full reuse of Starship is realized, launch costs will drop from \"hundreds of millions of dollars per time\" in the past to \"hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars per time\". And this gap will determine whether human beings can use space like ports and airports.</p><p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/8a885c74-dd09-4647-a23b-a777a02cebc2.jpeg\" title=\"\"/></p><p>In Musk's statement, Tesla Motors and Space X are not two projects, but two carriers under the same logical chain-one takes place on the ground and the other takes place in outer space. They both try to use engineering verifiable ways to turn the \"future\" into an object that can be touched in the real world.</p><p>This idea came about when one of Musk's sons, Saxon, asked the question \"Why are we still living like 2015?\"</p><p>In his view, cars are not only means of transportation, but also \"the appearance of the spirit of the times\", which is why Cybertruck frequently jumps tickets and insists on building them.</p><p>\"There are already enough\" normal cars \"on the market, and Tesla's purpose is not to make a better car in the existing paradigm, but to promote the transition of cars from traditional industrial products to the technological expression of the next era.\"</p><p>Musk described it as \"letting the future truly enter the real world\" rather than staying in concept maps, film and television works, or experimental displays.</p><p>Immediately afterwards, Musk mentioned the next generation of Tesla Roadster. He called the upcoming new Roadster a \"very concrete and very direct disruptive release\", and Musk revealed that it may be unveiled before the end of this year.</p><p>And stressed that \"it looks like a car. But it's crazier than any James Bond car. If you add all the James Bond cars together, it's also crazier than those.\" Not even ruling out the possibility of flying cars.</p><p>After all, in the interview, Musk did not deny the possibility of \"flying Roadster\".</p><p><span>Source of this article: Super Electric Robot, original title: \"The latest version of Musk's\" Violent Theory \": Death sentence for mobile phones in advance, AI and robots are the only way out\"</span></p><p><div>Risk warning and disclaimer clause</div><div>The market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice, nor does it take into account the special investment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, opinions or conclusions in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own responsibility.</div></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3758575\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/2a34e001-c51f-4885-a74f-1a0681c4e20a.jpeg","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1674673428.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED 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EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU0210536198.USD":"JPM US GROWTH \"A\" ACC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","BK4612":"AI芯片","DXYZ":"Destiny Tech100 Inc","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3758575","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2580130902","content_text":"聊AI，谈机器人、星舰，也回应了很多争议，马斯克最新访谈来了。\n不久前，马斯克做客Joe Rogan的访谈节目，近3个小时的时间，没有提词器，全程即兴对话。在对话中，马斯克第一次把AI机器人、星舰和社交平台这三项业务放在同一条叙事线上，给了宏大叙事一个激进的未来。\n马斯克预测未来5-6年，传统手机与App将彻底消失，人们消费的大部分内容（音乐、视频等）都将由 AI 生成，届时的手机会成为“人工智能推理的边缘节点”。\n还预测AI将在2026年超越单个人类智商，2030年超越全人类智慧总和，未来机器人和AI不是“未来产业选择”，而是“维持社会运转能力所必须的工具”。\n“唯一能让美国摆脱债务危机、避免破产的办法，就是发展人工智能和机器人。”\n\n复盘整场对话，其实谈及最核心的汽车业务并不多，更多的则更像是在描绘一个未来社会的“操作系统”安装手册。\n虽然抽象，但谁又能保证这不会是未来世界的终局之一呢。\n变革即将袭来\n“未来不会有操作系统，不会有APP，你的手机只是显示像素和发出声音，它预测你最想看到和听到什么，然后实时生成，我们会尽可能地将AI集成到这个设备中。”\n马斯克认为，未来不会再有传统意义上的手机了，“我们所谓的手机，实际上是一个用于AI推理的边缘节点，配备一些通讯模块进行连接。”本质上可以理解为服务器端的AI会与用户设备上的AI进行通信，并生成用户想要的任何实时视频。\n\n言外之意，未来人类所需的信息都将通过人工智能获取，并且给出了一个明确的时间节点——5、6年后，甚至会更早。\n值得一提的是，OpenAI正在和苹果前首席设计师乔尼·艾夫合作开发一种口袋大小的无屏设备，可本地运行AI模型并依托云端完成复杂任务，与马斯克描述的“AI推理边缘节点”高度契合。\n另外，马斯克还给出了AI发展的明确时间线：2026年AI智商将超越单个人类，2030年则会超越全人类智慧总和。\n未来AI和机器人就像 “超音速海啸”，对职业的替代已进入倒计时：邮件处理、电话客服等桌面工作正快速消失，编程、内容创作等领域将在1-2年内迎来大规模替代，驾驶、物流等职业会随自动驾驶成熟而转型，仅焊接、烹饪等物理劳动能留存更久，但最终也将被机器人取代。\n在马斯克看来，工作将逐渐从“生存需要”变成“自我选择”，因为人类将拥有由机器人与 AI 构成的生产体系。\n但同时也会带来一个必然的问题——接踵而至的失业浪潮。\n这是从“全民基本收入”提升到“全民高收入”过程，每个人都能获得自己需要的商品和服务，不必为了维持生存而被动工作。\n当然，“机器人不是为了取代人，而是为了让社会不崩溃”。如果没有机器人，劳动力缺口会使生产能力下降，税基萎缩，福利系统失去资金来源，从而引发财政危机和社会不稳定。\n而如果由机器人承担基础生产和服务性劳动，人类就可以保持较高福祉水平，并将创造力投入到科技、文化、教育和探索领域中。\n这也是马斯克为什么认为机器人和 AI 并不是“未来产业选择”，而是“维持社会运转能力所必须的工具”的关键原因之一。\n\n马斯克认为，未来有很多可能性，其中也包括了“终结者场景”（AI 毁灭人类），“这种概率不会是 0%”，所以人类需要的是一个极致求真，好奇，平等的的看待所有生命AI。“我认为一个好奇、求真的AI会想要促进人类发展，因为我们比一堆石头有趣得多。”\n还举了一个例子，人类可以去消灭所有大猩猩，但这并没有发生，我们确实侵占了它们的环境，但我们实际上试图保护黑猩猩和大猩猩的栖息地。\n基于此，马斯克认为在好的情景下，AI也会对人类做同样的事情。它“会促进人类文明发展，关心人类的幸福。我认为这是我们应该努力实现的目标。”\n不过在马斯克看来，在所有主流AI中，Grok是唯一平等看待所有人类生命的AI系统。\n其强调，AI 的问题不是动机问题，而是可控性问题，人工智能最核心的问题不在于其能否变得更聪明，而在于当其能力足够强时，人类是否仍然能够决定它做什么。\n\n他指出，当一个系统可以自动优化自身模型和参数时，它将不再依赖人类手动调整训练方式。由此带来的风险并非“AI会产生恶意”，而是人类无法再预测其行为方式。\n因此，马斯克认为“安全的 AI”必须能够接受人类的外部约束，而不是仅依赖训练数据来推断“人类价值”。\n他还强调为了保持 AI 的可控性，人类需要保留一种“停止按钮”——一种即使在系统能力远超人类的情况下，仍然能够由人类决定系统是否继续运行的机制。如果这一机制缺失，那么模型一旦进入自我改进循环，其行为可能在很短时间内超出人类理解范围。\n向新世界迈进的载体\n在这次对话中，除了AI和机器人，马斯克没有分别谈论火箭、汽车等业务，而是把 SpaceX、Tesla放在同一个体系下阐述——在马斯克看来，这两者都是未来世界中不可或缺的部分。\n这次访谈中，马斯克将人类文明的现状比作电子游戏最高难度关卡：“我们正在这个‘游戏’中迎来最关键的关卡：要么通过AI和技术实现前所未有的富足，要么在意识形态和谎言中走向文明崩溃。”\n面对这一关键转折点，他提出了明确的操作指南，“你必须探索边界——把东西推到失败才能知道极限在哪。”在其看来，这不仅适用于星舰的研发，也是文明进步的基本逻辑。\n\n在星舰的研发过程中，马斯克透露道，自己会有意让它处于比我们预期正常飞行更糟糕的飞行状态，比如，他们故意移除最关键位置的隔热瓦以观察“如果我们在那里失去一块隔热瓦片，是灾难性的还是非灾难性的？“\n而所有这些研发过程的最终目标，是实现火箭的完全可重复使用。\n马斯克解释了为什么传统航天模式无法规模化。如果每次飞行结束后都要让飞机坠毁，再重新造一架，那么航空业根本无法存在。长期以来，火箭就是在这种逻辑下运行的。发射一次，坠毁一次，重新制造一次，而制造本身的成本与周期决定了航天只能以国家为单位承担，无法形成商业规模。\n这样来看，马斯克口中的”可重复性“并不是一个简单的技术提升，而是改变航天经济模式的前提。\n如果 Starship 的完全重复使用得以实现，发射成本将从过去的“每次数亿美元”下降到“每次数十万到数百万美元级别”。而这种差距，将决定人类是否能够像使用港口、机场那样使用太空。\n\n在马斯克的表述中，特斯拉汽车与Space X并不是两个项目，而是同一个逻辑链条下的两种载体——一个发生在地面，一个发生在外太空，它们都试图用工程可验证的方式把“未来”变为现实世界可以触摸的物体。\n这个想法是马斯克的一个儿子萨克森（Saxon）提出“为什么我们仍像生活在2015年”的问题时，产生了这样的思考。\n在其看来，汽车不仅是交通工具，更是“时代精神的外观”，这也是为什么Cybertruck频频跳票，还要坚持将其造出来的原因。\n“市场上已经有足够多的“正常汽车”，而Tesla 的目的不是在现有范式中做一台更好的车，而是推动汽车从传统工业产品向下一时代的技术表达形式过渡。”\n马斯克将之描述为“让未来真正进入现实世界”，而不是停留在概念图、影视作品或实验性展示中。\n紧接着，马斯克提到了 Tesla Roadster 的下一代产品。他称即将到来的新 Roadster 将会是一次“非常具象、非常直接的颠覆性发布”，亮相的时间，马斯克透露可能会在今年年底之前。\n并强调“它看起来像一辆车。但它比詹姆斯·邦德的任何汽车都更疯狂。如果你把所有詹姆斯·邦德的汽车加在一起，它也比那些更疯狂。”甚至还不排除飞行汽车的可能性。\n毕竟在访谈中，马斯克并没有否认“飞行Roadster”的可能性。\n本文来源：超电机器人，原文标题：《马斯克“暴论”最新版：提前给手机判死刑，AI和机器人是唯一出路》风险提示及免责条款\n\n            市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.5,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"DXYZ":1.5}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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