Tesla Stock Drops Again. The Focus Is Shifting to 2026 and Robots

Dow Jones11-14

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has made some "way too early" predictions about robotics for 2026.

Tesla shows up in a few of them.

The electric-vehicle maker has pinned most of its future on AI, including a big bet on labor-saving AI-trained humanoid robots that Tesla CEO Elon Musk hopes to sell next year.

Jonas doesn't see 2026 as the year of the droid, though. "We see great potential for the human form factor in robotics," he wrote in a recent report. He has even ordered a NEO humanoid robot from 1X, but isn't expecting much. "For 2026, at least, humanoids are more of a marketing and funding strategy than doing useful work."

He is more optimistic that Tesla and Waymo "solve" AI-trained self-driving. "2026 is the year when robotaxis cross over from science fiction to reality with consumers, investors, urban planners, and transport authorities," Jonas wrote.

That means robo-taxis without safety monitors for Tesla, and more cities with Waymo cabs operating. Jonas is also hopeful for federal autonomous vehicle standards in 2026, which would make it easier to introduce the technology and drive across state lines in a self-driving car.

Another prediction for 2026: "Tesla and xAI get closer." xAI is Musk's AI company that owns X and operates ChatGPT competitor Grok. All companies, including Tesla, need computing power to build AI applications. xAI has a lot of AI computing power. "The value of xAI's expanding capabilities in compute and 'truth-seeking' AI will become increasingly conspicuous over time," Jonas wrote.

Exactly what "closer" looks like is hard to say. Musk has suggested that Tesla could take a stake in xAI, which is still raising money to build out its operations.

Jonas also sees auto makers, like Tesla, investigating robot production, and the Magnificent Seven companies investing more in "physical" AI. Those are applications, such as robots and cars, where the AI is moving around in the world, rather than acting as agents for users on computer screens.

Jonas rates Tesla stock Buy and has a $410 price target for shares. The average analyst price target for Tesla stock is about $400, according to FactSet.

Tesla stock was down again early Friday to close out a tough week of trading. Shares were down 4.4% at $384, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 0.8% and 0.5%, respectively.

Coming into Friday trading, Tesla stock was down 6% for the week, leaving shares down less than 1% this year, but up 22% over the past 12 months.

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Comments

a4xrbj1
11-15
a4xrbj1
"Robotaxis crows of from science to reality" Adam Jonas is an idiot, doesn't he know that reality (meaning Waymo full self driving taxis) are here for several years already? Without safety drivers? Besides they are also a reality in China. Just because Tesla is years away from every getting to level 4 (which not only means no safety drivers anywhere in the car but more importantly, taking over the financial liability for any accident and injuries), that the market leaders by far haven't unlocked reality years ago. They are so far ahead, Tesla can't see them and Jonas is just a stupid Tesla stock promoter as his company (Morgan Stanley) is the main bank that had lend Musk all his loans. So they are deeply tied in with Musk and can't afford for him to go down or go broke!