Megadeals returned in full force in 2025. Wall Street is already bracing for another wave in 2026.
There were a record 68 transactions valued at $10 billion or more announced globally this year, according to data from LSEG going back to 1980. That drove the average annual deal size to a new high of nearly $227 million.
"Large deals are driving the market. And when you see big deals, it's a sign of CEO and boardroom confidence," said Ivan Farman, global co-head of M&A at Bank of America.
Farman said he and his team are anticipating momentum will continue in 2026 and beyond, and across industries.
This year's action picked up as concerns around President Trump's tariffs were subsiding, and bankers and lawyers say it hasn't slowed down since. One lawyer said she even got messages from clients on Thanksgiving -- a 24-hour window that in past years has typically been sacrosanct, even on Wall Street.
In media, Netflix struck a $72 billion deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and HBO Max streaming service, prompting Paramount Skydance to launch a $77.9 billion hostile takeover bid for the entire company.
In July, Union Pacific agreed to buy Norfolk Southern for $72 billion, in a bid to create the first U.S. transcontinental railroad.
A couple months later, videogame maker Electronic Arts said it would go private in a $55 billion deal.
In November, Huggies diapers owner Kimberly-Clark agreed to buy Tylenol maker Kenvue for $40 billion.
'Bullish, but cautiously so'
Jonathan Davis, a corporate partner at Kirkland & Ellis, said companies are moving fast because they don't want to miss the boat.
"For the first time in several years, there's a growing perception that the failure to act quickly risks losing the asset," he said.
Still, he cautioned that there have been numerous times in the past few years when it seemed as though dealmaking activity was about to take off before something got in the way. "I am super bullish, but cautiously so, " he said.
Lawyers at Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz noted in a memo to clients this month that a significant portion of this year's deal volume was driven by private-equity firms jumping back into the water. A number of the big private-equity deals this year involved multiple firms teaming up, such as Blackstone and TPG's acquisition of women's-health company Hologic.
Lawyers at Wachtell say they are monitoring themes next year including more spinoffs, more crypto M&A, and a greater influx of capital into deals from sovereign-wealth funds, particularly those in the Middle East.
Another sign of the anticipated boom times ahead: Banks and law firms from Wells Fargo and Lazard, to Paul Weiss and Kirkland & Ellis, are continuing to invest in hiring.
Management teams and their advisers are learning to navigate the Trump administration's more lax approach to enforcement around tie-ups, another factor contributing to the uptick in deals. But there still can be curveballs.
"The odds that a deal goes through today is materially higher than it was a few years ago," said Lazard Chief Executive and Chairman Peter Orszag. But he said the odds that the White House or a cabinet agency getting directly involved is also materially higher.
Europe less rosy
Overseas, the mood isn't quite as upbeat.
Europe is the second-largest destination globally for buyers after the U.S. market, typically making it a key driver for dealmaking. But it was a laggard this year. And harsh commentary from Trump and America's business community about Europe's foreign policy and business regulations raise questions about its performance in 2026.
"Europe is seen as divided and slow," said Birger Berendes, head of continental European M&A at Jefferies Financial Group. He said that is a deterrent for U.S. buyers, unless targets offer strategic technology or are market leaders.
M&A value involving European targets rose 23% in 2025, highlighted by such deals as the $18 billion tie-up between Keurig Dr Pepper and Amsterdam-based JDE Peet's.
Still, that percentage gain was the lowest globally among the six biggest M&A regions tracked by LSEG data. The number of U.S. buyers targeting the region fell to its lowest level since 2020.
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