By Farhan Rafid
DOHA, Qatar-With the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopening, Gulf oil producers face a new test: how fast they can clear shipping bottlenecks and turn stockpiled crude into exports.
Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz after the war with the U.S. and Israel broke out on Feb. 28, choking an artery that normally carries about a fifth of globally traded oil. Reopening of the waterway has begun under a U.S.-Iran agreement signed earlier this week, shifting the market's focus to how quickly the export system can recover.
The recovery hinges on two separate constraints, said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, an Oslo-based energy research and business-intelligence firm. The markets will closely watch whether tankers can freely transit through the strait, and if the region's oil producers can load enough crude once these vessels are ready to sail, he noted.
Shipping through the strait remains limited, though some vessels have begun crossing again, including three tankers carrying Saudi oil and one French-flagged LNG carrier. Kpler recorded six verified transits on June 17, while average daily crossings so far in June have stayed around 10 ships, far below the more than 100 a day before the war, according to ship-tracking data cited by The Wall Street Journal.
That makes the first stage of the recovery a logistical one. Shipowners need to regain confidence in the route, insurers need to bring premiums down and producers need to load crude quickly enough to avoid bottlenecks at export terminals.
Traffic through Hormuz could take around four to six months to return to prewar levels, Leon said.
The disruption has also drawn attention to storage capacity.
Oil giant Saudi Arabia said it is considering expanding capacity worldwide after the Strait of Hormuz disruption underscored the importance of strategic reserves in keeping crude flowing to customers. Saudi Arabian Oil Co., which is known as Aramco and is the world's top oil exporter, can count on a network of crude storage sites both inside the kingdom and overseas, especially in Asia, one of its biggest markets.
Leon said energy security is likely to become a bigger priority after the crisis. "For oil exporting countries that means putting together mechanisms and infrastructure to ensure exports can reach destination," he said. "In that sense, infrastructure bypassing Hormuz and storage capacity around the world would be crucial."
Some major Gulf producers already have infrastructure allowing them to bypass Hormuz, including Saudi Arabia's route to the Red Sea and the U.A.E.'s pipeline access to Fujairah. Those routes helped keep oil flowing, but they were no substitute for Hormuz, the main artery for Gulf crude exports.
Write to Farhan Rafid at farhan.rafid @wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 19, 2026 07:13 ET (11:13 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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