The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0927 ET - The government says leisure and hospitality employment declined by 61,000 in June, reflecting weaker than usual seasonal hiring. That contrasts sharply with the 70,000 gain in May's report. "It looks like the World Cup hiring spree was a one-month phenomenon in May," according to Brian Bethune of the Boston College Economics department. Thus far in 2026, the BLS says employment in leisure and hospitality has shown little net change. Elsewhere in the report, employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in June with a rise of 36,000. The industry has added 172,000 jobs since a recent low in October 2025. Employment in health care continued its upward trend, with a rise of 22,000, but at a slower pace than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
0922 ET - Slower-than-expected U.S. job creation in June supports an increase in demand for gold, Petros Pantzari, from brokerage firm Monaxa, writes. Payrolls were reported at 57,000, lower than WSJ consensus forecast of 115,000. Treasury yields and the dollar slipped on the news, while gold futures are up 2%. "Gold is moving higher because the weak U.S. jobs report has reduced the fear of another Fed rate increase," Pantzari says. He adds the data gives traders a reason to believe the Fed may stay on hold "or even move closer to rate cuts" if labor markets weaken further. That would push down yields, undermining the dollar, "both supportive for gold," Pantzari says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0916 ET - The U.S. decision not to renew its trade pact with Mexico and Canada sends the USMCA into a process of annual reviews. "While far from ideal from an investment-certainty perspective, the treaty remains in force and...continues providing a legal framework that extends through its existing horizon unless replaced, terminated, or subsequently renewed," Gabriel Casillas and Nestor Rodriguez of Barclays say in a note. The main challenge remains policy uncertainty, rather than existing tariff levels, and companies may continue to postpone investment decisions, they write. "Firms can often navigate tariffs, rules-of-origin requirements, and regulatory changes. What is harder to manage is uncertainty regarding the future operating framework." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0914 ET - The Japanese yen's modest recovery against the dollar appears more consistent with profit-taking and caution about foreign exchange interventions as opposed to outright action to support the currency, Capital.com's Daniela Hathorn says in a note. "While [Japan's] officials have continued to warn they stand ready to respond to excessive currency moves, today's decline lacks the abrupt, disorderly price action that has typically characterised previous interventions." Instead traders are reducing bets on a stronger dollar after its rise became stretched. Volatility could remain elevated on intervention risks but the broader trend favors dollar strength, she says. The dollar falls more than 1% to a two-week low of 160.62 yen after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data, LSEG data show. The dollar hit a 40-year high of 162.83 Wednesday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0908 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, turn lower along with U.S. Treasury yields after weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data. The data reduce the prospects of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates in the near term. The U.S. added 57,000 jobs in June, significantly less than the consensus forecast of 115,000 new jobs by economists in a WSJ poll. Ten-year gilt yields last trade at 4.791% following the data, from 4.816% beforehand, albeit still up around 3 basis points on the day, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0905 ET - Bitcoin rises further to reach a new one-week high after U.S. nonfarm payrolls data came in weaker than expected, reducing the case for interest rate rises. Payrolls rose 57,000 in June, below the 117,000 forecast by economists in a WSJ survey. While the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2%, the payrolls print gives traders enough reason to believe the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates on hold or even resume rate cuts if the labor market weakens further, Monaxa's Petros Pantzari says in a note. Bitcoin rises to as high as $61,540 after the data from $61,212 beforehand. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0900 ET - A lower-than-expected jobs number sends gold futures higher, with the yellow metal now up 1.4% after being slightly negative before the report's release. Only 57,000 nonfarm jobs were added in June, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is below analyst forecasts of 115,000 jobs added. The surprise sent equities and commodities higher, with fears around future interest rate hikes calmed by the report as well as comments from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh that toned down interest rate worries. Most-active silver is also up, climbing 2.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0859 ET - The European steel sector is expected to benefit from the European Union's revised steel safeguard measures, as country-specific import quotas should create a more orderly market than previously feared, Deutsche Bank Research analysts say in a note. The new rules are expected to reduce low-cost imports, strengthen the position of established trading partners and provide greater support for steel prices and producers' profit margins, the analysts say. Although demand remains subdued and prices have softened during the seasonal summer slowdown, the analysts expect both to recover as inventories decline and demand improves later in the year. Deutsche Bank favors companies with strong exposure to a recovery in regional prices and expects the tighter import regime to improve industry profitability over the medium term, the analysts add. (nina.kienle@wsj.com)
0855 ET - S&P futures are building onto earlier gains following weaker job creation in June. Non-farm payrolls grew by 57,000 last month,below the 115,000 economists polled by WSJ expected. May's payrolls were also revised down to 129,000 from 172,000. The jobless rate ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3%. The weaker-than-expected report could mean that the Federal Reserve may be less likely to raise rates sooner rather than later. The Fed recently adopted a more hawkish tone with regard to inflation triggered by rising energy costs, leading markets to believe a rate hike could be in the cards. S&P futures are up 26 points. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
0851 ET - Plans to rebalance the U.K.'s industrial economy should aim to support areas where the strongest output can be achieved, Hugo Bessis at Oxford Economics says in a note. Andy Burnham, the likely contender to replace Keir Starmer as U.K. prime minister, recently outlined plans for stronger public intervention in the economy and deeper devolution of power. This drive for "good growth in every postcode" gives fresh impetus for U.K. industry, but should be targeted in places with the strongest potential to drive growth, such as London, Reading, Cambridge, and Manchester, Bessis says. "Indeed, good growth in every postcode should be better defined as ensuring prosperity and opportunity can reach everywhere, as opposed to economic activity itself being everywhere," he says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)
0849 ET - Treasury yields and the dollar slide as the U.S. economy creates fewer jobs than expected in June. The BLS reports jobs growth at 57,000, lower than WSJ consensus of 115,000. May's figure is revised down to 129,000 from 172,000, and April's to 148,000 from 179,000. June's unemployment rate ticks lower to 4.2% from 4.3%. The data runs against expectations of Fed hikes that help support the dollar. Weekly jobless claims fall slightly, to 215,000 from an upwardly revised 216,000, versus expectations of 220,000. The WSJ Dollar Index is down 0.7%. The 10-year yield falls to 4.461% from 4.505% before the data. The two-year drops to 4.108% from 4.191%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0759 ET - The latest Bank of England credit conditions survey shows mortgage demand increased in the second quarter. The data show that U.K. households weathered the Middle East tensions notably well potentially helped by the dip in U.K. inflation in April and the BOE interest rates not rising, Propertymark CEO Nathan Emerson says in a note. "More stable levels of secured debt, such as mortgages, generally indicate there has been no sudden or harsh shift in consumer confidence." The survey also showed that the availability of secured credit to households was unchanged in the three months to end-May 2026 but was expected to increase over the three months to the end of August. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 02, 2026 09:28 ET (13:28 GMT)
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