$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ delivered about 387k vehicles and produced about 433k vehicles in 1Q24. This deliveries were well below analysts' reduced estimate. It is hard to believe FY2024 deliveries are still at the consensus of 1.98 mn (+9.5% yoy).
I have noticed that Tesla's inventory has reached a record high. Tesla added a whopping 46.6K units to inventory in Q1, despite it having been reduced production in March.
According to some famous bloggers in X, Tesla had more than 150K units on hand. I believe it's probably between 140K and 150K.
Assuming 75 selling days in 1Q, then the inventory turnover days are probably near 30 days, vs. 15-16 days one year ago. This would affect the company's operating cash flow in Q1.
Comparing the inventory data and its share price, we can see the share price reached the peak at the lowest inventory between 22Q1-22Q1. Its production continued to exceed deliveries from 22Q3, and its share price fell.
The next buying opportunity may be when sales and production are equal.
Comments
我现在非常努力地想，在下一次盈利之前，即使亏损也要卖出。是的，消防处终于有了一些积极的更新，但这对即将到来的收益没有帮助。最好在盈利后以较低的价格再次卖出和买入。从长远来看，我确实对特斯拉有信心，但我也将密切关注新的电池技术发展，中国公司现在似乎处于领先地位
looking at this and the price cut in china foresee this rally of bearish will go on till the release of the Q1 finanical report
Great article, would you like to share it?