Weekly Macro Themes - Global ex-US Equities

TopdownCharts
02-23

This week I covered the following topics/ideas: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$

1. China Macro: The macro outlook for China is getting less bad (property turning the corner, economic pulse improving), Chinese government bonds look expensive; expect stock/bond ratio to go higher.

2. US Housing: Monitoring downside risks in the US housing market as high servicing costs for new purchases bump up against stretched valuations and potential reversal of supportive policies (fiscal, migration).

3. Treasuries: It’s a case of mixed signals for the bond yield outlook as cheap valuations + bearish sentiment sound contrarian bullish, but inflation indicators + resurgence risk say higher for longer.

4. Global ex-US Equities: Bullish global vs US equities given the high valuation hurdle for US vs low bar for global, link with macro scenario (reacceleration), and tentative technical turning point signs showing up.

5. Defensive Value: Remain bullish on this alternative hedge/diversifier given extreme cheap relative value, record low investor allocations, and a set of promising technical signs of a turning point in progress.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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