Why Tesla Is a High-Risk Inves-To The Moon - Tiger Brokers Online Investing Community - To The Moon

Why Tesla Is a High-Risk Investment in 2025

 As of February 28, 2025

1. Alarming Valuation Metrics

* P/E Ratio : 138.2x (TTM) — more than 6x the S

&P 500 average — signals extreme overvaluation relative to earnings ($2.04 EPS).

* Price-to-Sales : 9.28x and Price-to-Book : 12.44x — far above industry norms, reflecting speculative optimism rather than fundamentals.

* Market Cap: $906.9B, despite a 30% YTD decline, raises sustainability concerns.

2. Growth Stagnation and Competitive Pressures

* Declining Sales: January 2025 EV registrations in Europe fell 45% YoY, while Chinese deliveries dropped 11%. BYD and Volkswagen are gaining market share.

* Questionable Guidance: Tesla’s 20-30% 2025 growth target clashes with recent performance; FY 2024 revenue grew just 1%, and EBITDA fell 4%.

3. Capitulation in Capital Flows

* 5-Day Capital Outflows : Net outflows of $1.08B (Feb 20–26) indicate institutional skepticism.

* Short Interest: Short volume spiked to 9.41M shares on Jan 30, reflecting bearish bets.

4. Execution Risks and Leadership Distractions

* $52.4B AI/Cloud Bet : Post-announcement, shares fell 7%, highlighting investor fears about profitability timelines.

* Elon Musk’s Dual Roles : His focus on government initiatives (DOGE) and political ties add operational uncertainty.

5. Technical Breakdown

* Price Action: Down 30% YTD, testing critical support at $280 (near 52-week low of $138.80). Resistance looms at $420.

* Volume Surge: 134M shares traded on Feb 25 — the highest in 2025 — signals panic selling.

1 Trln Pay Package Approved! Tesla Sell the News: Hold for Long Term?

On November 6, more than 75% of shareholders voted in favor of Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s new compensation package. Under the plan, if Musk meets a series of milestones over the next ten years, he will gradually receive about 423.7 million restricted stock units (RSUs) — up to USD 1 trillion. Can Musk realistically hit these ambitious milestones in the next decade? Will this massive pay package truly align Tesla’s growth with shareholder interests After the approval, is Tesla a “sell the news” trade — or a long-term conviction hold?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

gogoooCn
02-28
gogoooCn
I‘ll never touch this kind of stocks… would rather buy $XIAOMI-W(01810)$

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Alarming Valuation Metrics</p>\n<p>* P/E Ratio : 138.2x (TTM) — more than 6x the S</p>\n<p>&amp;P 500 average — signals extreme overvaluation relative to earnings ($2.04 EPS).</p>\n<p>* Price-to-Sales : 9.28x and Price-to-Book : 12.44x — far above industry norms, reflecting speculative optimism rather than fundamentals.</p>\n<p>* Market Cap: $906.9B, despite a 30% YTD decline, raises sustainability concerns.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>2. Growth Stagnation and Competitive Pressures</p>\n<p>* Declining Sales: January 2025 EV registrations in Europe fell 45% YoY, while Chinese deliveries dropped 11%. BYD and Volkswagen are gaining market share.</p>\n<p>* Questionable Guidance: Tesla’s 20-30% 2025 growth target clashes with recent performance; FY 2024 revenue grew just 1%, and EBITDA fell 4%.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>3. Capitulation in Capital Flows</p>\n<p>* 5-Day Capital Outflows : Net outflows of $1.08B (Feb 20–26) indicate institutional skepticism.</p>\n<p>* Short Interest: Short volume spiked to 9.41M shares on Jan 30, reflecting bearish bets.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>4. Execution Risks and Leadership Distractions</p>\n<p>* $52.4B AI/Cloud Bet : Post-announcement, shares fell 7%, highlighting investor fears about profitability timelines.</p>\n<p>* Elon Musk’s Dual Roles : His focus on government initiatives (DOGE) and political ties add operational uncertainty.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>5. Technical Breakdown</p>\n<p>* Price Action: Down 30% YTD, testing critical support at $280 (near 52-week low of $138.80). Resistance looms at $420.</p>\n<p>* Volume Surge: 134M shares traded on Feb 25 — the highest in 2025 — signals panic selling.</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Why Tesla Is a High-Risk Investment in 2025</p>\n<p> As of February 28, 2025</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>1. Alarming Valuation Metrics</p>\n<p>* P/E Ratio : 138.2x (TTM) — more than 6x the S</p>\n<p>&amp;P 500 average — signals extreme overvaluation relative to earnings ($2.04 EPS).</p>\n<p>* Price-to-Sales : 9.28x and Price-to-Book : 12.44x — far above industry norms, reflecting speculative optimism rather than fundamentals.</p>\n<p>* Market Cap: $906.9B, despite a 30% YTD decline, raises sustainability concerns.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>2. Growth Stagnation and Competitive Pressures</p>\n<p>* Declining Sales: January 2025 EV registrations in Europe fell 45% YoY, while Chinese deliveries dropped 11%. BYD and Volkswagen are gaining market share.</p>\n<p>* Questionable Guidance: Tesla’s 20-30% 2025 growth target clashes with recent performance; FY 2024 revenue grew just 1%, and EBITDA fell 4%.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>3. Capitulation in Capital Flows</p>\n<p>* 5-Day Capital Outflows : Net outflows of $1.08B (Feb 20–26) indicate institutional skepticism.</p>\n<p>* Short Interest: Short volume spiked to 9.41M shares on Jan 30, reflecting bearish bets.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>4. Execution Risks and Leadership Distractions</p>\n<p>* $52.4B AI/Cloud Bet : Post-announcement, shares fell 7%, highlighting investor fears about profitability timelines.</p>\n<p>* Elon Musk’s Dual Roles : His focus on government initiatives (DOGE) and political ties add operational uncertainty.</p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p><br></p>\n<p>5. Technical Breakdown</p>\n<p>* Price Action: Down 30% YTD, testing critical support at $280 (near 52-week low of $138.80). Resistance looms at $420.</p>\n<p>* Volume Surge: 134M shares traded on Feb 25 — the highest in 2025 — signals panic selling.</p></body></html>","text":"Why Tesla Is a High-Risk Investment in 2025  As of February 28, 2025 1. Alarming Valuation Metrics * P/E Ratio : 138.2x (TTM) — more than 6x the S &P 500 average — signals extreme overvaluation relative to earnings ($2.04 EPS). * Price-to-Sales : 9.28x and Price-to-Book : 12.44x — far above industry norms, reflecting speculative optimism rather than fundamentals. * Market Cap: $906.9B, despite a 30% YTD decline, raises sustainability concerns. 2. Growth Stagnation and Competitive Pressures * Declining Sales: January 2025 EV registrations in Europe fell 45% YoY, while Chinese deliveries dropped 11%. BYD and Volkswagen are gaining market share. * Questionable Guidance: Tesla’s 20-30% 2025 growth target clashes with recent performance; FY 2024 revenue grew just 1%, and EBITDA fell 4%. 3. Capitulation in Capital Flows * 5-Day Capital Outflows : Net outflows of $1.08B (Feb 20–26) indicate institutional skepticism. * Short Interest: Short volume spiked to 9.41M shares on Jan 30, reflecting bearish bets. 4. Execution Risks and Leadership Distractions * $52.4B AI/Cloud Bet : Post-announcement, shares fell 7%, highlighting investor fears about profitability timelines. * Elon Musk’s Dual Roles : His focus on government initiatives (DOGE) and political ties add operational uncertainty. 5. Technical Breakdown * Price Action: Down 30% YTD, testing critical support at $280 (near 52-week low of $138.80). Resistance looms at $420. * Volume Surge: 134M shares traded on Feb 25 — the highest in 2025 — signals panic selling.","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":83,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/408311854240216","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3340,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["TSLA","TTM","TTM.AU"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":true,"length":1292,"optionInvolvedFlag":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":408425544864136,"commentId":"408425544864136","gmtCreate":1740729616415,"gmtModify":1740729621216,"authorId":10000000000010976,"author":{"id":10000000000010976,"idStr":"10000000000010975","authorId":10000000000010976,"name":"gogoooCn","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b17af8d14081700b793911bb75de6b67","vip":8,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":408311854240216,"objectIdStr":"408311854240216","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"I‘ll never touch this kind of stocks… would rather buy  <a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"01810\" data-mention-name=\"XIAOMI-W\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$</a>","text":"I‘ll never touch this kind of stocks… would rather buy  <a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"01810\" data-mention-name=\"XIAOMI-W\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$</a>","html":"I‘ll never touch this kind of stocks… would rather buy  <a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"01810\" data-mention-name=\"XIAOMI-W\" href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$</a>","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/408311854240216"}