Market Analysis for March 5,2024

Global Equity Markets

- **US Markets**:

- **S&P 500**: Trading near **5,150**, up 0.4% pre-market, fueled by tech resilience (NVIDIA +5% post-earnings; AI chip demand optimism). Resistance at **5,200**; support at **5,100**.

- **Nasdaq**: Jumped 1.2% as semiconductor stocks (AMD +4%, Broadcom +3%) surged on AI infrastructure spending.

- **Dow Jones**: Lagged (-0.1%) due to healthcare and consumer staples drag (Pfizer -2%, Walmart -1.5%).

- **Asia-Pacific**:

- **Nikkei**: Hit **40,500** (+1.5%) as BOJ’s dovish stance weakened the yen (USD/JPY at **150.80**).

- **Hang Seng**: Fell 1.8% on China’s weak Caixin Services PMI (50.2 vs. 52.5 expected). Property stocks (Evergrande -10%) crashed.

- **ASX 200**: Flat as mining stocks (Rio Tinto -2%) offset tech gains (Afterpay +3%).

- **Europe**:

- **DAX**: Up 0.7% to **18,000**, driven by Siemens (+3%) and SAP (+2%) on AI adoption.

- **FTSE 100**: Down 0.3% as energy stocks (Shell -2%) fell with oil prices.

Forex & Central Banks

- **USD (DXY)**: Steady at **103.90** ahead of Powell’s testimony and Friday’s jobs data. Markets now price a **60% chance of a June Fed rate cut**.

- **EUR/USD**: Testing **1.0850** resistance; ECB’s Lagarde signals a June rate cut if inflation cools to 2%.

- **USD/JPY**: Holds **150.80** as BOJ’s Ueda downplays rapid policy tightening.

- **AUD/USD**: Down 0.5% to **0.6500** on weak Australian GDP growth (+0.2% QoQ).

Commodities

- **Oil**: **Brent crude** fell 2% to **$82/bbl** on ceasefire hopes in Gaza and rising US inventories (+4.2M barrels).

- **Gold**: Edged up to **$2,100/oz** amid Middle East risks and Fed uncertainty. Resistance at **$2,150**.

- **Copper**: Dropped 1% to **$8,800/ton** on China’s sluggish demand.

Key Events & Data Today

1. **Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony (10:00 ET)**: Focus on inflation outlook and rate-cut timing.

2. **US ISM Services PMI (10:00 ET)**: Forecast **53.0** (prior 53.4). A miss could revive recession fears.

3. **Eurozone Retail Sales (5:00 ET)**: Expected **-0.3% MoM** (weak consumer activity).

Technical Outlook

- **S&P 500**: Bullish above **5,100**; breakout above **5,200** targets **5,250**.

- **Bitcoin**: Volatile near **$65,000** (resistance at **$68,000**; support at **$60,000**).

- **Gold (XAU/USD)**: Bullish above **$2,080**; next resistance **$2,150**.

Risks & Trends

1. **AI Mania**: NVIDIA’s earnings surge (+5%) fuels tech rally, but valuations are stretched (Nasdaq P/E at 32x).

2. **Fed Policy**: Sticky inflation (Core PCE at 2.8%) may delay rate cuts, pressuring small caps.

3. **China Slowdown**: Property sector collapse and weak PMIs drag Asian equities.

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Conclusion:

Markets hinge on **Powell’s testimony** and **ISM data** for direction. Tech stocks dominate, while oil and China-exposed sectors lag. Gold and Bitcoin remain hedges against geopolitical risks.

- **Powell’s tone**: Dovish hints could spark equity rallies.

- **Bitcoin volatility**: ETF inflows vs. profit-taking at record highs.

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Bullish $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Bearish 

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