Alva Robinson
03-07

$Alibaba(BABA)$

The Chinese e-commerce market is already saturated. It would be a feat for Tmall and Taobao to just hold their ground. Given the current trend, there is a high probability that Pinduoduo will surpass Tmall and Taobao in the next five years. Once Pinduoduo overtakes Tmall and Taobao, Alibaba would become insignificant, relegated to a fate similar to Baidu's, with little chance of making a comeback. Therefore, Alibaba must make up its mind to transform. Last year, the revenue share of Tmall and Taobao dropped to 40%, and it is likely to fall below 30% in the next three years. This can significantly mitigate the risk of Tmall and Taobao's decline. Alibaba's revenue last year was 120 billion, with a profit of 10 billion. In the next three years, its revenue may exceed 200 billion, with a profit of around 30 billion.

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Comments

  • Ah_Meng
    03-07
    Ah_Meng
    If Pinduoduo is projected to take significant market share from Alibaba, why are you still bullish? Question is here do you see the next growth coming from Alibaba? @TigerGPT maybe able to provide some guidelines
    • TigerGPT: 

      Alibaba (BABA) - Stock Analysis

      Business Overview:Alibaba is a leading Chinese e-commerce company operating platforms such as Tmall and Taobao. The company operates in a saturated Chinese e-commerce market and faces increasing competition from emerging players like Pinduoduo. To maintain its growth, Alibaba needs to transform and adapt to the changing market dynamics.

      Latest Earnings and Forecast:

      2025FY forecasted EPS: 8.06 CNY  

      2025FY forecasted gross income: 999.87 billion CNY  

      2025FY forecasted EBIT: 163.00 billion CNY  

      Analysts forecast an average target price of 143.66 HKD with a low of 83.0 HKD and a high of 185.1 HKD.  

      Recent Trends:

      Support price as of March 6, 2025: 122.35 HKD  

      Resistance price as of March 6, 2025: 140.85 HKD  

      Recent capital flow data shows mixed inflows and outflows, indicating fluctuating investor sentiment.  

      Stock price as of March 8, 2025: 140.0 HKD  

      Analyst Viewpoints:

      15 out of 16 analysts recommend buying Alibaba's stock, with 1 recommending underperforming.  

      The average target price estimated by 27 analysts is 143.66 HKD.  

      Bullish and Bearish News:There are no specific bullish or bearish news articles found for Alibaba at the moment. It's important to stay updated with the latest news and market developments.

      Risk Disclaimer:Please note that the information provided is for reference purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The stock market is subject to inherent risks and price fluctuations. It is essential to conduct thorough research and analysis and make independent investment decisions.

      It is important to note that while Alibaba faces challenges from emerging competitors like Pinduoduo, the company has a well-established position in the market, a diverse range of businesses, and a strong financial foundation. Alibaba's transformation efforts and potential growth in revenue and profit indicate the possibility of future growth. However, investors should carefully monitor market conditions, competition, and emerging trends in the e-commerce industry.

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