April Effect vs. Trump Pressure: Who Will Set the Tone for Trade?

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Tiger_comments
04-01
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Historically, since 1971, April has been the second-strongest month for the three major US stock indexes. Additionally, in post-election years since 1950, April has consistently ranked among the top-performing months, maintaining its position as the second-best month on record.

As we enter April, does March’s sell-off present a buying opportunity?

The market fell into extreme fear on February 25, hitting a new low of 11 on March 4. After a brief rebound starting last Friday, investor sentiment has once again returned to extreme fear, with the current index at 21.

Does extreme fear signal a buying opportunity, or should we wait for new lows?

How will the tariff policy unfold: will volatility intensify?

Citigroup has outlined three different tariff scenarios and their corresponding market impacts:

  1. Announcement of reciprocal tariffs only – minimal market reaction.

  2. Reciprocal tariffs + value-added tax – the U.S. dollar may surge immediately, while global stock markets could decline.

  3. Reciprocal tariffs + value-added tax + sector-specific tariffs – most severe market impact.

Tiger’s analysts believe the market may follow this script:

Tariff concerns → Market declines → Tariff policy is temporarily set → Market rebounds → New tariff concerns emerge → Market falls again, repeating this cycle until investors become desensitized or the tariff situation becomes clear.

If the downtrend continues in April, will you shift to a “antifragile investment” strategy?

The antifragile portfolio consists of equal-weighted assets:

This strategy aims to build a resilient portfolio during market downturns.

Meanwhile, Buffett’s $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ surged 16% in Q1, significantly outperforming both the MAG 7 and broader market indices, which posted negative returns.

  1. Do you believe in the “April Effect” rally, or will Trump’s tariff pressures lead to further declines?

  2. How long could extreme fear persist?

  3. Would you consider antifragile trades?

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Second-Best Month Fails? What's Your April Trade Plan?
History shows that, since 1971, April has been the second-best month of the year for the three major U.S. stock indexes, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. In postelection years since 1950, April has remained a top-performing month — historically ranking as the second-best month for the Dow and the S&P 500, and the third-best month for the Nasdaq (see chart below). However, Trump's tougher-than-expected tariffs drag the market down. ---------------- Is the April effect still possible or not? What's your trade strategy for April?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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Comments

  • icycrystal
    04-01
    icycrystal
    @Universe宇宙 @GoodLife99 @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT @rL @HelenJanet @Shyon @Aqa @koolgal @LMSunshine

    Historically, since 1971, April has been the second-strongest month for the three major US stock indexes. Additionally, in post-election years since 1950, April has consistently ranked among the top-performing months, maintaining its position as the second-best month on record.

    The market fell into extreme fear on February 25, hitting a new low of 11 on March 4. After a brief rebound starting last Friday, investor sentiment has once again returned to extreme fear, with the current index at 21.

    Does extreme fear signal a buying opportunity, or should we wait for new lows?

    Do you believe in the “April Effect” rally, or will Trump’s tariff pressures lead to further declines?


    How long could extreme fear persist?


    Would you consider antifragile trades?

    leave your comments to win tiger coins~

  • Barcode
    04-01
    Barcode
    🗓️📈📈📈📉📉📉📉 $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Historically, April hands us a bounce, but don’t get too comfortable. By late April to early May, recession signals will hit with precision, following a well-worn pattern. That drop is not just a dip, it is a dive that will extend through to October. I’lll be selling into strength & flipping short as we shift into May. For more detail, , check out my $DIA post from earlier today.
    Wishing you precision entries, strong momentum & profits that trail higher. Happy positioning and trading ahead. Cheers, BC 🍀🍀🍀
    • Hen Solo: 
      🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼Thanks for sharing your wonderful insights BC! 💜
    • BarcodeReplyAh_Meng: 
      No worries at all, AM. I indulge you when time allows, though I must confess, I’ve been guilty of overindulging on your epic posts more than once. By the time I reach the end, the comment section feels like a distant memory.[Facepalm] So if I go quiet, just take it as silent appreciation with a full inbox of thoughts 🧠🍀🍀🍀
    • Ah_Meng: 
      Ooopppsss... didn't realise you had shared before me! I didn't notice it... had tagged you. ignore or indulge me, up to you [Tongue] [Facepalm] I hear your msg... [Sly]
  • Shyon
    04-02
    Shyon
    April has historically been a strong month, and with extreme fear in the market, a rebound could be likely. Fear-driven sell-offs often create buying opportunities, but tariff uncertainties and inflation risks make it unclear if we’ve hit bottom. I’m cautiously optimistic while watching macro trends.

    The tariff situation is a major risk. If the worst-case scenario unfolds, volatility could intensify, dragging markets lower. However, if investors grow desensitized to tariff news, temporary recoveries may follow. The key is whether tariffs remain a persistent concern or fade into the background.

    An antifragile approach seems smart in this environment. Gold, Treasuries, and defensive currencies offer hedges against volatility, while Buffett’s strategy of holding strong companies is proving resilient. I’m not fully shifting strategies but see value in balancing growth with defensive plays.

    @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_SG @TigerGPT

  • MHh
    04-02
    MHh
    I think the ‘April effect’ will be eroded by trump’s tarring pressures. Afterall, the world hates trade wars and investors hate uncertainty. Trump threatens tariffs again and again as his negotiation wild card but does not commit to them or may u-turn once the country relents on their own tariffs for American goods. The fear will go on as long as uncertainty exists and the wars don’t end as trump promised. I wouldn’t consider antifragile trades as they may also reverse unexpectedly as long as the trump news subsides or both countries can real a new deal or lowered tariffs for both sides. I would prefer to watch and buy good stocks at a discount.
    @SPOT_ON @rL @DiAngel @Kaixiang @Success88 @Fenger1188 @Wayneqq @Universe宇宙 @HelenJanet come join
  • Mrzorro
    04-02
    Mrzorro
    To be honest, I hope the market will be rebound by April, but it seems like not that positive ( small rebound ?). I think it will be a bearish market for quite sometime....let's see...
  • AliceSam
    04-01
    AliceSam
    关税担忧→市场下跌→关税政策暂定→市场反弹→新的关税担忧出现→市场再次下跌，重复此循环直到投资者变得麻木不仁或关税情况变得明朗。
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