The S&P 500 is down 17% in five weeks—with nearly 12% of that in just the last two.

A bounce is expected by many, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens.

I originally expected a move down to $500–$480, but over the course of months—similar to 2022. Once structure broke, I was watching for a retest of the weekly bias zone around $580–$590 before looking for short setups.

But the market dropped so fast that it blew right through it.

Now we’re sitting inside the monthly market bias, where there’s historically an 80% chance of a bounce.

The last time we traded below this level for any extended time was during 2008. Even in COVID, 2018, and 2022—we bounced here.

Could we still fall another 6% to $480?

Sure. But I think the risk/reward here is incredible for a bounce in the coming weeks.

I’ll be watching closely for long setups on names trading within this bias.

Not every setup will trigger, but the discount is extreme, and in my opinion, this is the best move on the field right now.